2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

A veteran scout's perspective - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...mainstage_card

TLDR - It's going to be Uggla

-They will lose 90 games because they suck offensively
-Below average defensively
-They are going to miss Pablo
-Soler and Garcia will continue to suck
-Arraez is good but they need a lot more
-Jazz is a 2B trying to play CF and going to be bumpy. But he'll hit.
-Sanchez has tools but has plateaued
-DLC is a backup OF
-Segura isn't rangy enough for 3B
-Wendle isn't a SS starter
-Iglesias still has something in the tank defensively though
-Burdick is a 5th OF at best
-Fortes is a good backup
-Stallings is not
-Luzardo is improving
-Cabrera is plus plus when healthy
-Garret is a back of the rotation guy
-Eury has top of the rotation potential
-Bullpen adequate, Puk is good, Nardi will get better but may take awhile


Yikes

I hear ya for sure, lou. Another year of essentially having no shot at making the playoffs. It’s very bleak.

But I am, after all, an eternal optimist!

I’m hanging my hat on three things that the scout is not factoring:

-There will be a regression to the mean in one run games.
The Marlins lost TEN one run games in TWENTY days in 2022.
The Marlins lost FORTY games by one run in 2022.

That’s 23 more (TWENTY THREE) more one run losses than the Cardinals, Astros and Padres lost last year (they all lost 17 games by 1 run)


-Skip will be a better in-game manager than Mattingly. No science behind that prediction. Just a gut feeling.

-Spring Training is meaningless. The Yankees and Mets lost 18 and 14 games this month.

[lou]

I hear ya for sure, lou. Another year of essentially having no shot at making the playoffs. It’s very bleak.

But I am, after all, an eternal optimist!

I’m hanging my hat on three things that the scout is not factoring:

-There will be a regression to the mean in one run games.
The Marlins lost TEN one run games in TWENTY days in 2022.
The Marlins lost FORTY games by one run in 2022.

That’s 23 more (TWENTY THREE) more one run losses than the Cardinals, Astros and Padres lost last year (they all lost 17 games by 1 run)


-Skip will be a better in-game manager than Mattingly. No science behind that prediction. Just a gut feeling.

-Spring Training is meaningless. The Yankees and Mets lost 18 and 14 games this month.

Yes Marlins and Rangers fans are hammering the 1 run losses and Don was terrible for sure.

I think the scout is wrong regarding 90 losses, but it's going to be 82-89 losses for sure. That's where I feel the 1 run argument comes in. Where do they fall on THAT spread.

TBH if they win 79 games and the pitching, Jazz, Arraez, Fortes, and one of DLC/Sanchez show up, it's probably a good season as they can plug around that with..... 2 large bats and the next wave of pitching showing up for real in 2024. Rinse/repeat WTF is Bruce going to do.

[lou]

Break out pitchers for 2023 now - Tanner Scott! - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...ates-pitchers/

I know we had a thread on him earlier where if he had any control he'd be a star. Well, the nerds agree. I get this one.

Looking forward to Groshans 2.0 basically.

[Lee Stone]

King of Spring award goes to .... Jon Berti. .467 OBP.

He needs to be a near everyday player and hit at the top of the order. 12 spring walks!

The standard batting order should be:

Berti
Chisholm
Segura
Arraez
Cooper
Sanchez
De La Cruz
Soler
Fortes

This is admittedly a very weak lineup but definitely the best the Marlins can put on the field. Skip, there is no charge for the input.

[fish16]

King of Spring award goes to .... Jon Berti. .467 OBP.

He needs to be a near everyday player and hit at the top of the order. 12 spring walks!

The standard batting order should be:

Berti
Chisholm
Segura
Arraez
Cooper
Sanchez
De La Cruz
Soler
Fortes

This is admittedly a very weak lineup but definitely the best the Marlins can put on the field. Skip, there is no charge for the input.

we agree on something! Berti should be the every day SS, or at least playing the majority of the time.

Batting order most days should be

Berti
Arraez
Jazz
Cooper
Soler
Segura
Sanchez
Garcia
Fortes

[Nick]

Since I don't think this is a roster that's going to make any type of run at a playoff spot, what I would consider a successful year, and possibly set us up for a success in 2024:

1. Sandy continues to be Sandy.
2. Luzardo and Cabrera are healthy and continue to look like the studs we think they can be.
3. Rogers, Garrett and hopefully Eder all pitch well at the major league level to some degree. The guy who looks like the most valuable piece of the 3 after this season is used as trade bait to lure a big bat. (Let's say it's Eder)
4. Eury dominates AAA and solidifies himself in the big league rotation with 50 or so solid innings.
5. Tanner Scott magically figures out where the ball is going and becomes that closer of the future, or A.J. Puk solidifies himself as the Closer of the future.
6. Arraez and Jazz show their good enough defensively at 2B and CF respectively, and get signed to extensions by the end of the year.
7. Fortes and Stallings are serviceable at C. Stallings hopefully good enough to where he can be dealt at the deadline.
8. Somebody out of the Sanchez/DLC/Burdick group shows they are a future major league starter.
9. Cooper stays healthy and is traded at the deadline for a AAA prospect ready to contribute soon.

So next year you go into the offseason with the following:

Rotation
1. Sandy
2. Cabrera
3. Luzardo
4. Eury
5. Rogers

6. Garrett
7. Fulton

Bullpen you have solidified the closer role, and you have enough decent arms that maybe you only need to pick up a vet in FA for a 1-year $3 million contract to round it out.

Lineup
Fortes/???? C
???? 1B
Arraez 2B
Segura 3B
???? SS
Sanchez/DLC/Burdick LF
Jazz CF
???? RF
Soler/Garcia DH (Unfortunately we'll have $26 million wrapped up in 1 year left for both of these losers, we're stuck with them and have to hope for the best)

So what do we do from there to do something with this lineup?

Fantasy Trade: Eder, Meyer and maybe 2 quality lower level prospects to NYY for Gleyber Torres and Oswald Peraza. Yankees probably wouldn't like to give up both, but they've still got LeMahieu locked up for several years and Trey Sweeney's not far off as well. So maybe they'd be willing to have their Rotation in order for the foreseeable future. You sign Torres to an extension immediately.

Free Agent Acquisitions: Teoscar Hernandez, Mitch Garver, maybe you bring back Cueto if he has a good year. $8 million is a lot for a long-relief/6th starter, but might be worth it. Bring back Floro and bring in another right handed releiver of his ilk.

Then you have:

Lineup
Fortes/Garver C
Arraez 1B (Locked up)
Torres 2B (Locked up)
Segura 3B
Peraza SS (6 years of control)
Sanchez/DLC/Burdick LF (years of control)
Jazz CF (Locked up)
Teoscar Hernadez RF (Locked up on something like 5 or 6 year contract)
Soler/Garcia DH

Hopefully Berry looks good and we don't have to deal him. He takes the DH spot from the losers. Then moving forward, we are just on the lookout for a 3B who bashes homers to eventually take over for Segura. It's not a super sexy lineup but maybe good enough with the arms we'll be throwing out.

[lou]

we agree on something! Berti should be the every day SS, or at least playing the majority of the time.

Batting order most days should be

Berti
Arraez
Jazz
Cooper
Soler
Segura
Sanchez
Garcia
Fortes

I really don't think this team is going to have a core lineup because of the mix and matching coming (lefties Berti, Segura, Gurriel, and Garcia mandatory, righties Sanchez and Wendle mandatory, etc.), but if those are the 9 for the day (as Wendle must be banged up against a righty), I'd stagger the lefties 2-4-7 and put the contact (Segura) in front of Soler and see what happens

Berti
Arraez
Cooper
Jazz
Segura
Soler
J. Sanchez
Garcia
Fortes


If this is going to work, I am imagining the Marlins do a mid-2000s Detroit Tigers impression where Brandon Inge, Marcus Thames, and Craig Monroe all were jacking 25+ and other guys like Raburn and Shelton pitching in a few bombs all batting 6-9 predominantly. It was a lot of boom or bust on the backend, but there was a lot of boom. This is effectively pretty similar to Soler, Sanchez, DLC, and Garcia over 3 lineup spots, so optimistically there are 100+ HR in the 6-9 spots (including the catchers and Wendle hitting 15-20 which I do think is reasonable). Of course that team worked because Granderson, Guillen, and Magglio were studs, so cue they need a bat at the deadline or yesterday to help Jazz and Arraez.

[lou]

Arraez 1B (Locked up)

I'll give some similar preseason predictions soon but generally like your plan. I don't think they'd get Peraza ever, but Gleyber alone is a good play (and kind of right now). Just swap in.... not sure I've mentioned this guy.... Rosario for me at SS in free agency. It would cost some money in FA, but they can also shed money. Call it Rogers and not Eder in your hypo to avoid arbitration and ditch all of Scott, Okert, Barnes, Floro, and Chargois as why should they have 5 expensive RP when they can dish out Puk, Garrett, Nardi, and presumably Meyer, Bender, and Enright, etc. Pray for a Soler opt-out, don't resign Wendle, don't tender Stallings, maybe even don't pick up Cueto's option, etc. There is money to move.



But as I am figuring out what I would do, something came up regarding this one note you have on Arraez.

Arraez 2022
LHP .265/.331/.354
RHP .329/.389/.438

Arraez Career
LHP .261/.353/.320
RHP .330/.385/.436 (1,091 AB)

He has a real platoon split! He's also 25 so improvement I do think is coming.

Among 1B last year, only these guys had a higher OPS (overall) versus Arraez against right handers: Goldschmidt, Meneses (Really?), Freeman, Alonso, Lowe, Pasquantino, and he's in a virtual tie with Abreu, Vlad, and Rizzo.


So let's talk about Arraez actually playing at 1B. He's a moderate above average hitter when playing against right handers, and I venture to say he is on the higher end of defense at the position considering he is an adequate 2B. So he's good against right handers. No fucking way would you start him against a left hander (he drops into the low 30s/high 40s in offensive production), but if we're mapping the team.... if they get someone like Gleyber (or they move Segura to 2B sooner rather than later which I think is the natural progression or Jazz is a disaster), Arraez *plays* at 1B against right handers. I do think he steps up some power so that slash only has room to go up as he starts taking more power chances (ala Murphy, McNeil, etc.).

So maybe Arraez is getting shifted to 1B (as Berry shifts to DH), and that'll be pretty OK for 110 starts against right handers. They'll have to move him back to 2B for some lefties which is fine as you still obviously have to play him. But, depending on what they do, a good set up next year might be:


1B Arraez 110 (Starts) / __________ (52)
2B Segura (100) / Arraez (32 - against lefties) / Berti (30)
SS ______ (140) / Groshans/Berti (22)
3B Groshans (80) / Berti (50) / Segura (32)


The interesting note here is, Cooper has a .790 career OPS vs lefties (middle pack overall 1B production based on 2022). So they might actually have that in house. I can see them giving Cooper a 1 year extension similar to Rojas/Wendle for like $6-7m next year to fill that role and Cooper is a 100+ game starter, half at 1B (all lefties) and gets plenty of DH time. Groshans can easily scale down 20-30 games here in favor of Arraez, Berti (especially), and Segura playing a few more if that expectation is too aggressive. Which gets us back to the problem child of SS.

Anyways, I think this will work itself out whether it is in house, Segrua moving, Jazz moving, trading for a Gleyber, etc. But this Arraez platoon split is interesting. Not sure why I never looked at this. I guess I just assumed he hit everything. But he doesn't.

[fish16]

that scout barry jackson always uses is mike berger, the former front office guy here.

[rmc523]

I think we'll wind up being around or a bit below .500 at the end of the season. And while on paper it's a "successful" year as it's a big improvement from last year, it's where we should have been last season, with further improvement this year.

Not dropping Correa on this lineup was inexcusable.

So basically yet another year of "wait until next year."

[lou]

I think we'll wind up being around or a bit below .500 at the end of the season. And while on paper it's a "successful" year as it's a big improvement from last year, it's where we should have been last season, with further improvement this year.

Not dropping Correa on this lineup was inexcusable.

So basically yet another year of "wait until next year."

This is a very accurate cliff notes

[fish16]

jazz had a really good interview on lebatard yesterday. His perspective on the move to CF is tremendous. In short, he said if you're scared of making mistakes you shouldnt be switching to another position. He said roger dean is the toughest place to play CF and it's incredibly hard to read the ball off the bat there during the day so it was good practice for him. There will be growing pains but he has the right approach to make the swtich. we're very lucky to have him. I havent really heard him do a ton of interviews, he's very well spoken. He's a great face of this franchise, they would be stupid not to be trying to extend him. him and Sandy as the faces of the team and arraez will be the heart of this team soon enough is a good starting point with the pitching depth we have as well. Just so infuriating not to make another move for correa.

[Namaste]

If they’re not actively seriously planning on what extension offer to make to Jazz (who is BY FAR their most marketable player) this organization is completely fucked beyond repair

[Namaste]

Marlins have the cheapest tickets/parking/beer/soda/food cost for a family of 4 in all of baseball

https://twitter.com/fishstripes/stat...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ

[rmc523]

Marlins have the cheapest tickets/parking/beer/soda/food cost for a family of 4 in all of baseball

https://twitter.com/fishstripes/stat...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ

We have $7 tickets ($7 x 4)? Since when?