2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

I think the Marlins expect more innings than that.

As said, I think this is the first big question mark for me and I hope we aren't homers. To be fair, Rogers velocity has been down last two starts, Garrett hasn't been good, and Cueto a little nicked up, so you can see this happening quickly even if Luzardo and Cabrera breakout, etc. We'll see what happens.

I expect more innings than that, but if they want to be cautious on that fine. That doesn't explain why they expect what Cabrera's done so far in the big leagues not to be sustainable production-wise. It also doesn't explain why they all of a sudden expect the NL Cy Young Winner to start giving up more than 1.1 runs per 9 more than he did last year. He's all of a sudden going to regress 3 years? Why?

[Namaste]

I lol’d at Fangraphs not having the Marlins in the Top 15. A huge blow to their credibility. That’s the first time I’ve ever said that

[Namaste]

Red Sox at #13, Dodgers at #9 and Yankees at #1 is hysterical

[fish16]

Red Sox at #13, Dodgers at #9 and Yankees at #1 is hysterical

wait what? How on earth could the yankees be 1. they have no pitchers left other than cole essentially right now.

Fangraphs is great for retroactive analysis of things that have already occurred. They are terrible for projections, because baseball is an impossible game to project. I've been saying this for months and you all respond with "you're not smarter than fangraphs" but one doesnt have to be smarter than fangraphs to look at their projections every year and tell you they are terrible. Maybe on a team level they are relatively ok, but on an individual basis they are awful.

Dodgers should be 1.

[lou]

Red Sox at #13, Dodgers at #9 and Yankees at #1 is hysterical

Yea I don't get the Red Sox at all. I don't mind the Dodgers. The Yankees can't be that high if we are also dinging the Marlins for health concerns (which they are). I'm looking at this list and I think 12-15 is a more realistic spot for the Marlins. Some of these rotations are good.

I think we'd all agree the Mets (depth), Rangers (massive upside), Brewers, Phillies (because of Wheeler as a difference maker), Braves, Rays, Dodgers, Angels, and Blue Jays (Bassitt stability + Tiedemann is close) are better on paper right now. That's 9.

Astros, White Sox, Padres, Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Cardinals, Guardians and Twins are next with the Marlins. The next tier is something like this. This is 10-19.

I wouldn't put the Marlins first there, but I also wouldn't put them last which Fangraphs effectively did. The SP is low. Ultimately though, that is an average position group wherever we want to put them with higher upside if they stay healthy, get the innings, and Eury/Eder come faster.

[lou]

More importantly we got a good arbitration buyout comp - Nico Hoerner. 3/$35m extension covering Arb2, 3 and one FA year. He'll be a free agent at 29 which is great for him. He just came off a 4 WAR year and projecting for 3+ moving forward. So a very good player.

Arraez is effectively kind of the same guy here performance wise at the same age. Arraez scaled higher as super 2 + batting championship though which pads the payroll a little for him.

We could say Arraez is maybe a 3/$40, 4/$55, 5/$75 sort of extension candidate based on this comp. I'd be game here for any of these for sure. I'd like to see 2-3 FA years so I'm looking at those 4-5 year extensions a bit more. Nico has a higher defensive floor so he may be looking at Swanson's deal as his future best case scenario, which Arraez will never get to as arguably a future defensive liability. So I think the 4-5 year permutation here makes sense for all parties. They should go for this as I and others here have said since they got him.

[lou]

Do we also hate MLB - https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-mlb-...rotations-2023

This is a bit better IMO. I think FG is low. They should be 12-15 range but aren't top 10. Yet.

[Nick]

I don't know, I feel like it's going to take a Top 10 pitching staff to get us to the 78-79 wins we're all predicting. Bullpen will be meh, and the offense will be bad.

[lou]

Another good extension comp - A. Gimenez 7/$107m from Cleveland. 2 years of service time and entering age 24 year old season. Coming off a ludicrous 6.1 WAR year.

Jazz is 2 years of service time and entering his age 25 season. He has call it 60% of Gimenez production (but has shown similar upside based on last year). This is great to shoot down Jazz's rate if he wanted something larger. Maybe the middle ground here for the Marlins is 6/$80-85. Previously I was thinking 6/$75 is the sweet spot, but this ups it $5-10m. And is also a great top-end comp as Jazz's agent would never try and go anywhere close to this. I think Jazz is more inclined to a deal seeing this and the Carroll deals. $80-85m would be a lot to bet on yourself.


So, these are starting in 2024 extensions based on some recent deals:

Jazz 6/$80-85m (ages 26-31)
Arraez 4/$55 or 5/$75 (ages 27-30/31)
Luzardo 5/$35-40 with expensive 6th year club option (ages 26-30/31)

Hopefully all 3 happen about right now.

[fish16]

Do we also hate MLB - https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-mlb-...rotations-2023

This is a bit better IMO. I think FG is low. They should be 12-15 range but aren't top 10. Yet.

They were literally top 8 last year with huge amounts of time missed from luzardo and Cabrera.

[lou]

They were literally top 8 last year with huge amounts of time missed from luzardo and Cabrera.

15th in WAR for the staff. 12th for SP. Other teams make moves too to improve.

Fangraphs is low. 12-15 range opening day seems like a fair range to me. I'm not sure what you are angry about, but if it's thinking this is a top 5 staff, get ready to be disappointed.

[Namaste]

We are definitely not a Top 5 rotation. But being outside the Top 15 is dumb and just “oh they’re just the Marlins so we’ll just put them wherever” stuff

[fish16]

i think id put them somewhere in the bottom half of the top 10 with upside for top 5 with health luck and a reasonable bounce back from rogers. Im ridiculously high on Cabrera and Luzardo. I think those 2 have ace potential, maybe not this year right away, but at some point in the next 2-3 years. I think rogers will be closer to 2021 (not quite as good as he was last year), and Cueto will be steady enough. cueto as your 2 at this point in his career is an issue, as your #5 he's solid. Plus you have Eury coming up for re-inforcements towards the end of the year, with garrett serving as quality depth in case of injury that's much better than some of the slop they have thrown out there in previous years once injuries occurred.

[lou]

A veteran scout's perspective - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...mainstage_card

TLDR - It's going to be Uggla

-They will lose 90 games because they suck offensively
-Below average defensively
-They are going to miss Pablo
-Soler and Garcia will continue to suck
-Arraez is good but they need a lot more
-Jazz is a 2B trying to play CF and going to be bumpy. But he'll hit.
-Sanchez has tools but has plateaued
-DLC is a backup OF
-Segura isn't rangy enough for 3B
-Wendle isn't a SS starter
-Iglesias still has something in the tank defensively though
-Burdick is a 5th OF at best
-Fortes is a good backup
-Stallings is not
-Luzardo is improving
-Cabrera is plus plus when healthy
-Garret is a back of the rotation guy
-Eury has top of the rotation potential
-Bullpen adequate, Puk is good, Nardi will get better but may take awhile


Yikes

[Nick]

A veteran scout's perspective - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...mainstage_card

TLDR - It's going to be Uggla

-They will lose 90 games because they suck offensively
-Below average defensively
-They are going to miss Pablo
-Soler and Garcia will continue to suck
-Arraez is good but they need a lot more
-Jazz is a 2B trying to play CF and going to be bumpy. But he'll hit.
-Sanchez has tools but has plateaued
-DLC is a backup OF
-Segura isn't rangy enough for 3B
-Wendle isn't a SS starter
-Iglesias still has something in the tank defensively though
-Burdick is a 5th OF at best
-Fortes is a good backup
-Stallings is not
-Luzardo is improving
-Cabrera is plus plus when healthy
-Garret is a back of the rotation guy
-Eury has top of the rotation potential
-Bullpen adequate, Puk is good, Nardi will get better but may take awhile


Yikes

Lee notice how this guy is almost completely negative and still thinks we'll win 72 games?