2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Yup. If you cant put out a payroll of at least 100 million in these times, you shouldnt be an owner. I loved what steve cohen said the other day. something to the effect of owners shouldnt be mad at me, they should be mad at themselves. Nothing he's doing is illegal and he's doing exactly what any good owner should do. spend as much as you can to put the best product out there. Now theres an argument that it's not great for the game with one team spending that much more than everyone else, but that seems like a problem for the everyone else, not him. The mets are super lucky to have him.

I wish we had that "problem"...

[lou]

Nicolas got a pretty good back end rotation write up, but Scott still sucks - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pittsbur...rospects-2023/


If you're looking at the Pirates depth chart, it really makes no sense for them to trade Reynolds unless Cruz is in fact a LFer. Internally, they are probably looking at this best case scenario.

Davis, Rodriguez
_____
Peguero (Bae can play here and N. Gonzalez in AAA)
Cruz, ______
Hayes, M. Nunez/Triolo/N. Lopez
Reynolds, Bae
______, Swaggerty
______

____, ____ Ortiz, Keller/Brubaker, Preister/Nicolas
Bunch of RP candidates and an ace reliever with Bednar already


The safe play for the Pirates is to see what Cruz does until July. Likewise Rodriguez may be so good they have to play him in the field if Davis is going to catch. That could really dictate what to do with Reynolds.

Just saying, these guys can sign a bench defensive SS, 2-3 whatever 1B/RF/DH types to stopgap those, and they are in the same position as the Marlins - they need a SS or CF wherever Cruz isn't playing. Sign an expensive SP as the third big player (after Reynolds and whoever this SS/CF is), trade out the farm for a SP version of Yelich, and this looks pretty good for them.

Guess we'll see.

[fish16]

Nicolas got a pretty good back end rotation write up, but Scott still sucks - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pittsbur...rospects-2023/


If you're looking at the Pirates depth chart, it really makes no sense for them to trade Reynolds unless Cruz is in fact a LFer. Internally, they are probably looking at this best case scenario.

Davis, Rodriguez
_____
Peguero (Bae can play here and N. Gonzalez in AAA)
Cruz, ______
Hayes, M. Nunez/Triolo/N. Lopez
Reynolds, Bae
______, Swaggerty
______

____, ____ Ortiz, Keller/Brubaker, Preister/Nicolas
Bunch of RP candidates and an ace reliever with Bednar already


The safe play for the Pirates is to see what Cruz does until July. Likewise Rodriguez may be so good they have to play him in the field if Davis is going to catch. That could really dictate what to do with Reynolds.

Just saying, these guys can sign a bench defensive SS, 2-3 whatever 1B/RF/DH types to stopgap those, and they are in the same position as the Marlins - they need a SS or CF wherever Cruz isn't playing. Sign an expensive SP as the third big player (after Reynolds and whoever this SS/CF is), trade out the farm for a SP version of Yelich, and this looks pretty good for them.

Guess we'll see.

it's not about it making sense to the pirates to deal him. It didnt make sense for us to deal Yelich or JT either. It's about if Reynolds unequivocally says he will not ever re-sign there and they refuse to pay him what he's worth. that's why he's rumored to be dealt eventually, not because the pirates want to do it. It's because they will be forced to at some point soon or continue to see his value decrease while they still arent even remotely competitive, or even worse he eventually leaves as a free agent in a few years. They have young pieces that are top hitting prospects in Davis (19th overall according to MLB), Temarr Johnson (29th overall), Peguero (62nd overall), Nick Gonzales (93rd overall), and Rodriguez (97th overall). The only pitcher they have is preister. Plus they have Cruz and Hayes already at the ML level. They need front line starting pitching. We are the perfect trade partner, and reynolds wont re-sign there. It's not a matter of if they trade him, it's a matter of when.

[lou]

it's not about it making sense to the pirates to deal him. It didnt make sense for us to deal Yelich or JT either. It's about if Reynolds unequivocally says he will not ever re-sign there and they refuse to pay him what he's worth. that's why he's rumored to be dealt eventually, not because the pirates want to do it. It's because they will be forced to at some point soon or continue to see his value decrease while they still arent even remotely competitive, or even worse he eventually leaves as a free agent in a few years. They have young pieces that are top hitting prospects in Davis (19th overall according to MLB), Temarr Johnson (29th overall), Peguero (62nd overall), Nick Gonzales (93rd overall), and Rodriguez (97th overall). The only pitcher they have is preister. Plus they have Cruz and Hayes already at the ML level. They need front line starting pitching. We are the perfect trade partner, and reynolds wont re-sign there. It's not a matter of if they trade him, it's a matter of when.

You loved the Yelich trade(?), but yes that didn't make sense to trade a guy with 5 years of control at those prices. It made sense to trade Realmuto with 2 years of control though. Hindsight bias that he is still just amazing doesn't change devoting $80-110m (in 2019 dollars) to a 28-32+ year old catcher where you are in year 1 of a rebuild is a bad idea. Probability says 31 year old heavy usage Realmuto isn't worth $20m a year. It just sucks for us that he's amazing even if that was the right decision. But hey, maybe Sixto finally arrives? He's somehow still 24 with 6 years of control four years later.

But back to the Pirates, I am of the position that you don't trade players because they are upset. These are professionals. The Pirates aren't forced to do anything. Reynolds is awesome and similar to the Marlins with what they should have done with Yelich, winning cures all and they should actually build a team besides doing whatever it is these teams are doing. They'll still get a haul for Reynolds summer 2024 if things aren't working out and their prospects aren't panning out. Pirates have a lot of options with payroll, prospects, and Reynolds to trade. That's all here. As stated, their smartest move is probably seeing if Cruz is actually a SS and if Rodriguez pops out into the field more. That could change some things fast for them if those guys need to go into the field. So like you have said and many agree, was Reynolds ever really available? It's probably no absent the "Eury" package as they have no incentive to do anything. This Fangraphs report suggests that pretty hard to me based on their pipeline which was the whole point here.

BTW, Pirates payroll is going to be $45-50m next year with Reynolds. So if we are upset about payroll, hold our beers. Holy shit they could front load Reynolds $35m in 2024 on a new 6/$115 deal or something and then make Reynolds a $16m a year player after that for 5 years. A dramatic contending move to have a vastly cheaper Reynolds when other guys get more expensive. You know, the kind of thing many of us have been saying here as how the Marlins should have used their 2019-2021 payroll as a weapon to take on bad contracts/extend guys with front loaded deals to prepare for better days in 24-28. But hey, what do we know? Maybe Jazz/Sandy each have 6 WAR years, Luzardo/Rogers/Arraez all drop 4 WAR years, and Garcia/Soler/Cooper/New and improved Statcast DLC/Sanchez hit 125+ HR and the jokes on us

Slow news period. Hopefully they have another major move in them, or 2-3 smaller ones (Andrus, Fulmer, etc.) to round some things out and that gets them to July in OK shape.

[Todd]

It really is...heartbreaking...how awful the returns for Yelich and Realmuto were.

And they weren't good returns at the time either.

[Namaste]

The Realmuto trade can’t be fully evaluated yet. Obviously the Yelich trade was a raging dumpster fire.

[Namaste]

There is video of Max Meyer throwing baseballs post TJ on Twitter

[lou]

It really is...heartbreaking...how awful the returns for Yelich and Realmuto were.

And they weren't good returns at the time either.

They were never going to win the Yelich trade, and even if we got who they should have gotten (Hiura), it's still a bust as he sucks too.

Don't look at Isan's AAA numbers last year either and this is where Nick/I would say he is slow to adapt at every level and then figures it out and fuck us if he becomes a MLB player next year finally. Zips actually has him as a 1.3 WAR player hitting .232/.317/.397 over 440 PA. Making it worse, he had a 1.009 OPS split against right handers last year so maybe that plays up. This could get more annoying somehow if Isan works out for SF even in a platoon role. The Marlins kind of need that right now. If they had a RHP bashing 2B capable of 100 starts, they could move Arraez all over. However, Zips may be smoking some crack this offseason as they think the Marlins AAA team is pretty fucking outstanding and I'll take the under on everyone for 2023, although Groshans/Allen may be pretty close - Amaya (2.1 WAR), LeBlanc (1.9 WAR), Hinojosa (1.9), De Goti (1.9), Burdick (1.7), Groshans (1.3), Allen (1.2), Bleday (1), and Edwards (1).

I can't fault the Realmuto trade on paper though. Sixto was really highly thought of. It just sucks he's hurt and the Realmuto found another gear. If Sixto becomes a legitimate player (call it a # 3 SP/ace reliever), ultimately they kind of did OK here with Sandy/Jazz/Sixto even if they should have also obtained a few other normal everyday/bench/bullpen guys on top of that. Yelich/Sandy cancel out. Jazz/Realmuto cancel out. Sixto just needs to drop a few 2 WAR seasons and Ozuna cancels out. I think Stanton cancels out already with the money/they got a little bit out of Castro/Alfaro/etc. So its up to Sixto to break even here.

[lou]

There is video of Max Meyer throwing baseballs post TJ on Twitter

I saw his rehab is going outstanding and there is a very small chance he could be back by September. Wouldn't that be something. Practically, just circle 2024 for him (and the organization) as I fear the most action we're going to get is July 28-July 31st when Kim flirts with answering some calls. And we get another Groshans or Edwards or Amaya BANGER to hype us all up.

As a side note - I hate pitchers going to the WBC and hope Sandy/Luzardo don't get hurt. No margin of error and they need 60 starts out of those two.

[fish16]

sixto talking to the media for the first time in forever. Says he's 46 pounds lighter and hoping to be ready for opening day, but not sure what the marlins plan is with him this spring. Of concern, he's topping out at 88 MPH right now, which obviously wont cut it. He probably doesnt get back up to 100+ like he was before, but he cant be in the low 90s. hopefully he can get back to the mid 90s at least. It goes without saying that most pitchers who miss two full years with any injury, let alone the same throwing shoulder injury, rarely get back to the big leagues.

[fish16]

I saw his rehab is going outstanding and there is a very small chance he could be back by September. Wouldn't that be something. Practically, just circle 2024 for him (and the organization) as I fear the most action we're going to get is July 28-July 31st when Kim flirts with answering some calls. And we get another Groshans or Edwards or Amaya BANGER to hype us all up.

As a side note - I hate pitchers going to the WBC and hope Sandy/Luzardo don't get hurt. No margin of error and they need 60 starts out of those two.

theres 0 difference in them pitching in the WBC vs spring training. as long as they arent pushing them a stupid amount of innings it's fine.

[fish16]

They were never going to win the Yelich trade, and even if we got who they should have gotten (Hiura), it's still a bust as he sucks too.

Don't look at Isan's AAA numbers last year either and this is where Nick/I would say he is slow to adapt at every level and then figures it out and fuck us if he becomes a MLB player next year finally. Zips actually has him as a 1.3 WAR player hitting .232/.317/.397 over 440 PA. Making it worse, he had a 1.009 OPS split against right handers last year so maybe that plays up. This could get more annoying somehow if Isan works out for SF even in a platoon role. The Marlins kind of need that right now. If they had a RHP bashing 2B capable of 100 starts, they could move Arraez all over. However, Zips may be smoking some crack this offseason as they think the Marlins AAA team is pretty fucking outstanding and I'll take the under on everyone for 2023, although Groshans/Allen may be pretty close - Amaya (2.1 WAR), LeBlanc (1.9 WAR), Hinojosa (1.9), De Goti (1.9), Burdick (1.7), Groshans (1.3), Allen (1.2), Bleday (1), and Edwards (1).

I can't fault the Realmuto trade on paper though. Sixto was really highly thought of. It just sucks he's hurt and the Realmuto found another gear. If Sixto becomes a legitimate player (call it a # 3 SP/ace reliever), ultimately they kind of did OK here with Sandy/Jazz/Sixto even if they should have also obtained a few other normal everyday/bench/bullpen guys on top of that. Yelich/Sandy cancel out. Jazz/Realmuto cancel out. Sixto just needs to drop a few 2 WAR seasons and Ozuna cancels out. I think Stanton cancels out already with the money/they got a little bit out of Castro/Alfaro/etc. So its up to Sixto to break even here.

ZIPS smokes crack every offseason. It's why relying on projections is idiotic. They are consistently terrible.

[Namaste]

theres 0 difference in them pitching in the WBC vs spring training. as long as they arent pushing them a stupid amount of innings it's fine.

I completely disagree.

You’re pitching for a managers who has no dog in the Marlins hunt and the temptation to overthrow in a pressure situation (DR v USA for example) is MUCH higher than a Spring Training game in front of 2000 people

[fish16]

I completely disagree.

You’re pitching for a managers who has no dog in the Marlins hunt and the temptation to overthrow in a pressure situation (DR v USA for example) is MUCH higher than a Spring Training game in front of 2000 people

the dominican republic's pitching coach is our bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda. I get where you guys are coming from, but SP's dont typically pitch much in the WBC. It's just a more hyped spring training in terms of getting ready for the year. they dont pitch much more than 3-4 innings. the pitching staffs are purposely super large because baseball knows guys arent ready for opening day for most of it. DR for example is carrying 20 pitchers.

[fish16]

the more i look at the outlay of the team without any more additions, the more i think that last roster spot comes down to groshans or amaya, and i think groshans has the inside edge there due to experience, even though i think i like amaya more.

Also, pretty telling from sixto today essentially calling himself fat in the past. who knows if he ever gets his shoulder healthy enough, but at the very least it looks like the work ethic is back. I know we've been over this time and time again, but him coming back and being anything close to what he was before would be such an unexpected huge boost.

Another interesting thing from today's media day, possibly completely meaningless or maybe it's a good sign- rogers said he watched tape of 2021 and 2022 and said he had an epiphany watching the tape and knows what went wrong last year. To me, it seemed very clear there was something mechanically off with him, and that then led to a blatantly obvious lack of confidence towards the middle of last year.

Again, this is all the usual spring training hope that every team has, but i have such high hopes for this pitching staff if everyone stays healthy. Sandy, Cabrera, Luzardo, 2021 Rogers, Cueto with Sixto as the closer is about as filthy as it gets. But we've also been doing this since i said we had a pitching surplus 2-3 years ago, it needs to actually happen, enough projecting, it's time to actually perform to the expectation we have based on how it looks on paper.