2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

How about we all just agree the mount rushmore of Marlins right handers are Fernandez, Brown, Beckett, and Sandy, and we love all of them.

[Namaste]

stats are stats. Saying both were incredible for those respective periods of time does not take away from either. Sandy put up a similar season to the numbers from Beckett's postseason in 2003. Beckett's were ever so slightly better and of course in higher leverage. The numbers are still very similar. Theres a reason why sandy won the cy young on a terrible team and put up 8 war according to baseball reference and finished 10th in mvp voting.

my comment was in reference to Todd’s comments a few years ago about how Sandy wasn’t very good.

[Todd]

In my defense, a few years ago he struggled to get to 6 K/9, had a FIP of almost 5, and most projections had him ending up in the bullpen. Basically every story and observation about the Ozuna trade said the Marlins got fleeced and that Gallen was the better arm in a weak deal.

I am glad he has turned into what he has but let's not do this revisionist history where Alcantra was always highly thought of.

[fish16]

It seems pretty clear at this point that they arent going to spend the money on that one more piece in the bullpen, nor is reynolds really actually available yet. So at this point, we're going into the season with this:

Vs lefties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS-Berti
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
Dh- Soler
Bench- Wendle, Sanchez, Stallings, _________ (probably forgetting someone)

vs righties
C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
could see jazz dh'ing and DLC in CF to get his bat in there some days and moving some guys around.

Bench- Berti, Stallings, DLC, ______ (again, im pretty sure im forgetting someone)

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Rogers, with Garrett as backup
RP- Floro, Barnes, Chargois, Enright, Okert, Scott, with 2 more spots open to any of Sixto, Simpson, Nardi, Nance, Brazoban, Soriano, Villalobos

It's an improvement on last year if the rotation stays healthy and some level of bounceback that is expected from Avisail and Soler, but it's still not enough. I get that you can't trade for someone who isnt yet available, but this team desperately needs that 1 more impact bat, and it's clearly reynolds as the perfect fit in LF. To me with perfect health it can be a fringe wild card contender, but with expected injuries that always happen its .500 at best.

The lineup will be much better, not that that's saying much compared to last year, but it's still below average unless Soler and Garcia not only bounceback, but go back to their peaks. It should be much more enjoyable to watch though with the added contact, but we still need that 1 piece.

And they will be incredibly foolish to not take advantage of any of these bullpen arms still available. Matt Moore, Chafin, Reyes, etc would all be really nice pieces to add and at this point should not cost much. Not going the extra step and spending a few more million on one of those pieces is just sad.

[rmc523]

It seems pretty clear at this point that they arent going to spend the money on that one more piece in the bullpen, nor is reynolds really actually available yet. So at this point, we're going into the season with this:

Vs lefties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS-Berti
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
Dh- Soler
Bench- Wendle, Sanchez, Stallings, _________ (probably forgetting someone)

vs righties
C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
could see jazz dh'ing and DLC in CF to get his bat in there some days and moving some guys around.

Bench- Berti, Stallings, DLC, ______ (again, im pretty sure im forgetting someone)

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Rogers, with Garrett as backup
RP- Floro, Barnes, Chargois, Enright, Okert, Scott, with 2 more spots open to any of Sixto, Simpson, Nardi, Nance, Brazoban, Soriano, Villalobos

It's an improvement on last year if the rotation stays healthy and some level of bounceback that is expected from Avisail and Soler, but it's still not enough. I get that you can't trade for someone who isnt yet available, but this team desperately needs that 1 more impact bat, and it's clearly reynolds as the perfect fit in LF. To me with perfect health it can be a fringe wild card contender, but with expected injuries that always happen its .500 at best.

The lineup will be much better, not that that's saying much compared to last year, but it's still below average unless Soler and Garcia not only bounceback, but go back to their peaks. It should be much more enjoyable to watch though with the added contact, but we still need that 1 piece.

And they will be incredibly foolish to not take advantage of any of these bullpen arms still available. Matt Moore, Chafin, Reyes, etc would all be really nice pieces to add and at this point should not cost much. Not going the extra step and spending a few more million on one of those pieces is just sad.

Sort of like last year where they started off decently and then just stopped/didn't do what they needed to.

[fish16]

Sort of like last year where they started off decently and then just stopped/didn't do what they needed to.

yes, but a lot of last year was injuries and just bad luck in close games. Or maybe bad luck is the wrong way to phrase it- it's more bad ownership in not improving the bullpen that led to a terrible record in close games. That's why i think they are being dumb by not continuing to add to the bullpen right now. Barnes should help, but they need 1 more guy.

Also, a lot of last year's crumbling was due to injuries to jazz and Soler and just a complete no show from Garcia. They have to prove it, but i have a good feeling about Garcia being at the very least competent, and Soler wasnt healthy and is apparently now in much better shape, so if they can be .750-.800 OPS guys like they have been able to in their career, i think that will go a long way. If they can, it's a pretty decent mix with Jazz, Arraez, Segura, Garcia, Cooper, and Soler, but again, it's clearly not enough and they need 1 more impact bat at least.

As currently constituted, they need big bounce backs from Soler and Garcia plus Jazz staying healthy and the rotation not having more than 1 injury. Is it possible? Sure, but it sure as shit isnt very likely. Again, you cant fault them for not being able to get reynolds when all indications are that he's not yet available, but if the fucking owner would just open up the wallet for a legit SS like Correa, this season has a completely different ceiling. Combine spending with a trade for Reynolds to what we already have, thats a contender. But for now we're just sitting hoping for perfect health and way too many other things to go right. It should be better, but better isnt enough at this stage

[lou]

It seems pretty clear at this point that they arent going to spend the money on that one more piece in the bullpen, nor is reynolds really actually available yet. So at this point, we're going into the season with this:

Vs lefties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS-Berti
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
Dh- Soler
Bench- Wendle, Sanchez, Stallings, _________ (probably forgetting someone)

vs righties
C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
could see jazz dh'ing and DLC in CF to get his bat in there some days and moving some guys around.

Bench- Berti, Stallings, DLC, ______ (again, im pretty sure im forgetting someone)

SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Rogers, with Garrett as backup
RP- Floro, Barnes, Chargois, Enright, Okert, Scott, with 2 more spots open to any of Sixto, Simpson, Nardi, Nance, Brazoban, Soriano, Villalobos

It's an improvement on last year if the rotation stays healthy and some level of bounceback that is expected from Avisail and Soler, but it's still not enough. I get that you can't trade for someone who isnt yet available, but this team desperately needs that 1 more impact bat, and it's clearly reynolds as the perfect fit in LF. To me with perfect health it can be a fringe wild card contender, but with expected injuries that always happen its .500 at best.

The lineup will be much better, not that that's saying much compared to last year, but it's still below average unless Soler and Garcia not only bounceback, but go back to their peaks. It should be much more enjoyable to watch though with the added contact, but we still need that 1 piece.

And they will be incredibly foolish to not take advantage of any of these bullpen arms still available. Matt Moore, Chafin, Reyes, etc would all be really nice pieces to add and at this point should not cost much. Not going the extra step and spending a few more million on one of those pieces is just sad.

You're not forgetting someone, that blank spot is Groshans/Amaya/Edwards/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar with how the team is constructed. Or maybe Garret Hampson makes the team.

Garrett isn't going to AAA. Add him to the bullpen with likely Nance gets first crack.

[lou]

Sort of like last year where they started off decently and then just stopped/didn't do what they needed to.

Yes this is the problem. That team is .500 if everything goes right. It at minimum needs Elvis Andrus and Michael Fulmer (and Alex Reyes in AAA while rehabbing), but really needs a significant SS upgrade, a significant bat upgrade for 1B or LF, and a significant high leverage reliever. Reynolds, Bednar, and Rosario would do the trick if it didn't vaporize the MLB roster, but then again you could just sign Wacha/Fulmer/Reyes/etc. to make up the pitching. They only have themselves to blame, again, and it's Bruce not letting them spend $110-120m.

[rmc523]

yes, but a lot of last year was injuries and just bad luck in close games. Or maybe bad luck is the wrong way to phrase it- it's more bad ownership in not improving the bullpen that led to a terrible record in close games. That's why i think they are being dumb by not continuing to add to the bullpen right now. Barnes should help, but they need 1 more guy.

Also, a lot of last year's crumbling was due to injuries to jazz and Soler and just a complete no show from Garcia. They have to prove it, but i have a good feeling about Garcia being at the very least competent, and Soler wasnt healthy and is apparently now in much better shape, so if they can be .750-.800 OPS guys like they have been able to in their career, i think that will go a long way. If they can, it's a pretty decent mix with Jazz, Arraez, Segura, Garcia, and Soler, but again, it's clearly not enough and they need 1 more impact bat at least.

As currently constituted, they need big bounce backs from Soler and Garcia plus Jazz staying healthy and the rotation not having more than 1 injury. Is it possible? Sure, but it sure as shit isnt very likely. Again, you cant fault them for not being able to get reynolds when all indications are that he's not yet available, but if the fucking owner would just open up the wallet for a legit SS like Correa, this season has a completely different ceiling. Combine spending with a trade for Reynolds to what we already have, thats a contender. But for now we're just sitting hoping for perfect health and way too many other things to go right. It should be better, but better isnt enough at this stage

Right, this "we're good" * mentality is ridiculous.










*if everything goes right

[rmc523]

Yes this is the problem. That team is .500 if everything goes right. It at minimum needs Elvis Andrus and Michael Fulmer (and Alex Reyes in AAA while rehabbing), but really needs a significant SS upgrade, a significant bat upgrade for 1B or LF, and a significant high leverage reliever. Reynolds, Bednar, and Rosario would do the trick if it didn't vaporize the MLB roster, but then again you could just sign Wacha/Fulmer/Reyes/etc. to make up the pitching. They only have themselves to blame, again, and it's Bruce not letting them spend $110-120m.

I"m not convinced Elvis Andrus moves the needle.

[fish16]

You're not forgetting someone, that blank spot is Groshans/Amaya/Edwards/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar with how the team is constructed. Or maybe Garret Hampson makes the team.

Garrett isn't going to AAA. Add him to the bullpen with likely Nance gets first crack.

Youre right, i forgot about Garrett to be added to the bullpen. That's what will likely happen barring an injury in spring, but again, i just dont know how well he plays out of the bullpen. We shall see though.

Nance getting first crack is exactly why they need 1 more arm. And i'd guess Amaya or Groshans get that last spot out of those options. More likely groshans. I'd like to add guerriel. Bleday and burdick shouldnt be up here if they arent playing at least semi regularly.

[lou]

yes, but a lot of last year was injuries and just bad luck in close games. Or maybe bad luck is the wrong way to phrase it- it's more bad ownership in not improving the bullpen that led to a terrible record in close games. That's why i think they are being dumb by not continuing to add to the bullpen right now. Barnes should help, but they need 1 more guy.

Also, a lot of last year's crumbling was due to injuries to jazz and Soler and just a complete no show from Garcia. They have to prove it, but i have a good feeling about Garcia being at the very least competent, and Soler wasnt healthy and is apparently now in much better shape, so if they can be .750-.800 OPS guys like they have been able to in their career, i think that will go a long way. If they can, it's a pretty decent mix with Jazz, Arraez, Segura, Garcia, and Soler, but again, it's clearly not enough and they need 1 more impact bat at least.

As currently constituted, they need big bounce backs from Soler and Garcia plus Jazz staying healthy and the rotation not having more than 1 injury. Is it possible? Sure, but it sure as shit isnt very likely. Again, you cant fault them for not being able to get reynolds when all indications are that he's not yet available, but if the fucking owner would just open up the wallet for a legit SS like Correa, this season has a completely different ceiling. Combine spending with a trade for Reynolds to what we already have, thats a contender. But for now we're just sitting hoping for perfect health and way too many other things to go right. It should be better, but better isnt enough at this stage

No to the bold, it was like that opening day with at minimum no CF and triple redundancy with Cooper/Soler/Aguilar. If they start the year with this team, it's the same problem. At least one massive player is needed and assets need to be shifted for another upgrade elsewhere.

Reynolds has been perfect for quite some time, but if he isn't available, they need to be much more creative to find these last players who can at least get them to striking distance in July. Given they signed Cueto and traded Pablo, they do have an arm to trade. So they either need to do that now, or go the cheap route (Andrus + Fulmer + Reyes) and get to the all star break and reassess best trade assets.

[lou]

I"m not convinced Elvis Andrus moves the needle.

He doesn't, but it gets you a win and maybe you get really lucky and you get 2022 again. Signing him and another guy like Michael Fulmer would just be depth signings to bridge to July and maybe Reynolds (or other star) is available then, etc. Or maybe they just need a 1B at that point and DLC/Sanchez have blossomed. Who knows. All I know is, the need another 5-7 wins added to this team and starting the year with needing 3-5 wins by filling out with say Andrus or Profar, Reyes, and someone like Fulmer, would be better (obviously).

[lou]

Also since Berti arbitration is finalized, the 26 man roster + dead money (which is $3.275 for Stanton contribution and Aguilar and Wendle buyouts) is roughly $91+ million for 2023.

That is 25th in 2022 dollars - which would be up from 26th which is what they actually were last year opening day.

If they would say spend, $115m. They would skyrocket to something like 23rd.

Bruce sucks.

[fish16]

Also since Berti arbitration is finalized, the 26 man roster + dead money (which is $3.275 for Stanton contribution and Aguilar and Wendle buyouts) is roughly $91+ million for 2023.

That is 25th in 2022 dollars - which would be up from 26th which is what they actually were last year opening day.

If they would say spend, $115m. They would skyrocket to something like 23rd.

Bruce sucks.

Yup. If you cant put out a payroll of at least 100 million in these times, you shouldnt be an owner. I loved what steve cohen said the other day. something to the effect of owners shouldnt be mad at me, they should be mad at themselves. Nothing he's doing is illegal and he's doing exactly what any good owner should do. spend as much as you can to put the best product out there. Now theres an argument that it's not great for the game with one team spending that much more than everyone else, but that seems like a problem for the everyone else, not him. The mets are super lucky to have him.