2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

in regards to keeping brian anderson, i think he will play well for the brewers. they have a history of taking infielders coming off down years elsewhere and having them play well there. They did it with casey mcgehee, travis shaw, and a few others. I dont think his production would be here what it will be there. At a certain point, it just gets old, and you cant count on him to stay healthy, and his particular injury clearly hurts his ability to hit for powers. He's a good guy and a nice player, but i have no problem with them moving on from him. I'll take segura's consistency and ability to stay healthy outside of 1 injury last year over anderson's peaks and valleys and inability to stay healthy.

[fish16]

It wasn't that long ago that I was hopeful that at least one of Burdick, Bleday, Misner, Encarnacion, Scott, Sanchez or De La Cruz would become a solid major league outfielder. Hard times in Little (make that Tiny) Havana.

the funniest thing about your negativity lately and especially the arraez trade is i just know 15 days into the season when you see what he brings you're gonna love him.

Also, more than one of those guys very may well pan out. For bleday they got a great reliever. For misner they got a starting 3b and now SS for 2 seasons. Scott stinks, and they got a catcher who will end up on our roster for at least 2 years for him. Burdick and Jerar still very well might be long term pieces here, and Sanchez and DLC will be starting level players for us this year. There are a lot of things to complain about, but that's not really it. They either got the most out of those assets or those assets still have potential to be key contributors for us for years.

Also, for all your bleday hate and abrams love over the years, Abrams has been terrrible at the major league level so far, worse than bleday, though he is a lot younger. in 284 career ab's so far, he's got a .604 OPS, 50/5 K/BB ratio, and just 7 steals in 11 attempts. He's the guy you were asking for for so long after the draft, and he hasnt shown jack shit at the major league level either.

None of the guys they were in the mix for in that bleday draft have really shown much at the major league level yet. Adley and Witt were never getting to our pick at 4. Andrew vaughn is a guy i would have liked and while he hasnt been bad at the major league level, his bat hasnt yet gotten to the point where people expected, though he was decent last year. Riley greene showed a little potential last year in detroit, abrams has been terrible at the major league level. There are guys like Baty and Corbin carroll who have seemed to have panned out, but the mlb draft is a crapshoot and those guys were never in the discussion for top 5 picks at the time. shit happens.

To me, the biggest what if over the last 10 years is what could have been if we didnt draft Tyler Kolek with the fucking 2nd overall pick for him to just be one of the single worst first round picks of all time. We cheaped out on rodon who was picked right after, and schwarber was right after him. or they could have drafted aaron nola and gotten a complement to Jose a lot quicker than kolek ever would have been even if he panned out. That was a truly terrible pick.

[lou]

lou can like it or not, but i dont think they are playing service time games with groshans, nor should they. he is a fringe prospect at this point. IF they intended on playing games with him, they wouldnt have brought him up here last year after a truly terrible year last year with Toronto's AAA team after 31 decent games for Jacksonville. If they do it they completely fucked up last year, because to bring him up would have been really stupid when they werent close to contention and you would now be actively making the team worse in a year you are trying to win. Is it a huge impact on the team to keep him down and give hampson that final spot even though hampson is hot garbage? realistically no. But they are clearly trying to win, even if they likely wont be a contender this year absent a huge step up from multiple bats or acquiring another stud bat. Kim is in the last year of her contract i believe. She's not playing for a potential extra year 6 years from now for a player who is likely a rojas level talent. It is way overthinking it.

I'm all for it with potential stars or big time talents like Eury, Meyer, Eder, maybe even fulton at this point, and potentially berry if he ever becomes anything, but for the 10th prospect in a not very good overall minor league system, it's just stupid to actively make your team worse, even if it is just for 40 days. The more likely scenario is he stinks to start the year and they get back the minor league days in the middle of summer when he works on things that mlb teams took advantage of.

Braxton Garrett was the Marlins 20th ranked prospect in 2022 and has .168 days of service time. That's 4 days on the active roster from a year or time. So you can like it or not when people tell you who they are - you should believe them.

[lou]

in regards to keeping brian anderson, i think he will play well for the brewers. they have a history of taking infielders coming off down years elsewhere and having them play well there. They did it with casey mcgehee, travis shaw, and a few others. I dont think his production would be here what it will be there. At a certain point, it just gets old, and you cant count on him to stay healthy, and his particular injury clearly hurts his ability to hit for powers. He's a good guy and a nice player, but i have no problem with them moving on from him. I'll take segura's consistency and ability to stay healthy outside of 1 injury last year over anderson's peaks and valleys and inability to stay healthy.

Except Anderson would be Groshans/Hampson/Jerar's replacement and not Segura. As stated numerous times, the team needs 100+ infield starts and Anderson would do that, even if it's a less than ideal non-SS.

[fish16]

Braxton Garrett was the Marlins 20th ranked prospect in 2022 and has .168 days of service time. That's 4 days on the active roster from a year or time. So you can like it or not when people tell you who they are - you should believe them.

you keep acting like they were purely manipulating his service time, which they might have been, but there was also no place in the rotation for him. which i think played a bigger role. He was coming off an injury and they wanted to build his innings up while we had a full rotation healthy for pretty much the first time all year. They activated him from the IL on september 12th, from September 13th through the next time in the rotation, we had Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Pablo, and Rogers. To act like he even had a place in the rotation and they were sending him down for purely service time purposes is big time revisionist history. Did it play a role? Probably. But this wasnt some pure service time manipulation like you are trying to make it seem like it is. There was no place in the rotation and they wanted him starting and not coming out of the bullpen for a couple innings a week. That time through the rotation, rogers got hurt and they brought him right back up. I think they got lucky that everyone was healthy at that time and service time implications worked out in their favor, but i think you are severely misrepresenting the situation.

[fish16]

Except Anderson would be Groshans/Hampson/Jerar's replacement and not Segura. As stated numerous times, the team needs 100+ infield starts and Anderson would do that, even if it's a less than ideal non-SS.

Brian anderson missed 159 games over 2 years, and was a 90 WRC+ in 2021 and 98 WRC+ last year. If a guy is not only unable to be counted on to stay healthy, but has a 2 year track record of poor performance even when he was healthy, im fine moving on when he was due like 4+ million. IF he has a bounceback year somewhere else, good for him, he wore out his welcome here and could not be relied on. I'm guessing the marlins have more information on his health and the likelihood he bounces back than anyone else.

[Nick]

you keep acting like they were purely manipulating his service time, which they might have been, but there was also no place in the rotation for him. which i think played a bigger role. He was coming off an injury and they wanted to build his innings up while we had a full rotation healthy for pretty much the first time all year. They activated him from the IL on september 12th, from September 13th through the next time in the rotation, we had Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Pablo, and Rogers. To act like he even had a place in the rotation and they were sending him down for purely service time purposes is big time revisionist history. Did it play a role? Probably. But this wasnt some pure service time manipulation like you are trying to make it seem like it is. There was no place in the rotation and they wanted him starting and not coming out of the bullpen for a couple innings a week. That time through the rotation, rogers got hurt and they brought him right back up. I think they got lucky that everyone was healthy at that time and service time implications worked out in their favor, but i think you are severely misrepresenting the situation.

Yeah, I would almost guarantee Hernandez over Garrett last year was simply the fact that they thought Hernandez was better, and he had been up until that point.

In retrospect I would've loved to have seen Garrett get the call from Opening Day on and see how he did, because Hernandez was a disaster.

[Nick]

Brian anderson missed 159 games over 2 years, and was a 90 WRC+ in 2021 and 98 WRC+ last year. If a guy is not only unable to be counted on to stay healthy, but has a 2 year track record of poor performance even when he was healthy, im fine moving on when he was due like 4+ million. IF he has a bounceback year somewhere else, good for him, he wore out his welcome here and could not be relied on. I'm guessing the marlins have more information on his health and the likelihood he bounces back than anyone else.

Anderson the most disappointing hitter (at the big league level) since Jeremy Hermida? Anderson was better than Hermida, and less touted, but I really thought he was going to be a staple of the lineup for years to come, and I guess he was, but not in a good way.

[fish16]

Yeah, I would almost guarantee Hernandez over Garrett last year was simply the fact that they thought Hernandez was better, and he had been up until that point.

In retrospect I would've loved to have seen Garrett get the call from Opening Day on and see how he did, because Hernandez was a disaster.

ya hindsight is 20/20, but i always like hernandez as a 5th starter. He just had a nightmare year and never was able to put it together and for some reason never seemed comfortable out of the pen. I always though he could be a really nice converted reliever for a few innings here and there, but when they tried it he just didnt ever seem comfortable. Shit happens, I thought garrett was done with no real mlb future because his velocity since his TJ surgery never came back to what it was, but its up a full 1.7 MPH from 2020 according to fangraphs, so maybe there is more in the tank.

I think he ultimately gets traded as part of a package for another bat at some point, likely in the offseason.

[lou]

you keep acting like they were purely manipulating his service time, which they might have been, but there was also no place in the rotation for him. which i think played a bigger role. He was coming off an injury and they wanted to build his innings up while we had a full rotation healthy for pretty much the first time all year. They activated him from the IL on september 12th, from September 13th through the next time in the rotation, we had Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Pablo, and Rogers. To act like he even had a place in the rotation and they were sending him down for purely service time purposes is big time revisionist history. Did it play a role? Probably. But this wasnt some pure service time manipulation like you are trying to make it seem like it is. There was no place in the rotation and they wanted him starting and not coming out of the bullpen for a couple innings a week. That time through the rotation, rogers got hurt and they brought him right back up. I think they got lucky that everyone was healthy at that time and service time implications worked out in their favor, but i think you are severely misrepresenting the situation.

I think this is a worse take than anything Lee has ever said. All of this is what defense counsel will say in a service time manipulation hearing. Because the Marlins aren't idiots and they maneuvered the game board to make this happen.

OF COURSE he was sent down for service time here. He proved to be a very good younger pitcher and what is "1" start worth in September 2022 when you are playoff eliminated. The sky is blue. The earth isn't flat. Braxton Garret was sent down mid-September 2022 so the Marlins could keep him under 1 year of service time.

[fish16]

Anderson the most disappointing hitter (at the big league level) since Jeremy Hermida? Anderson was better than Hermida, and less touted, but I really thought he was going to be a staple of the lineup for years to come, and I guess he was, but not in a good way.

i dont find him disappointing. I think the shoulder injury zapped his power. He was a really consistent, productive, albeit nonspectacular hitter from 2018-2020. The last 2 years though the shoulder injury caused him to miss almost a full seasons worth of games, and his slugging percentage decreased each of the last 4 years, i think as a result of the injuries. His OBP remained steady until this past year where it crumbled, but from 2018 through last year his slugging percentage went from .468, .465, .378, to .346.

I fucking loved hermida. I remember the 2nd half in i think it was 2007, he was finally putting it together. It was one of the most impressive 2nd halfs we've seen a marlins player have in a while and he brought his average just shy of .300. In the second half that year he hit .364 with a .956 OPS in 285 PA's. I dont think he liked baseball though. It's complete speculation on my part admittedly, but he seemed like a guy who let his natural talent take over and he was so naturally talented that he could hang around the big leagues for a while, but he never seemed to care to put in the work to be great consistently.

[Nick]

I think this is a worse take than anything Lee has ever said. All of this is what defense counsel will say in a service time manipulation hearing. Because the Marlins aren't idiots and they maneuvered the game board to make this happen.

OF COURSE he was sent down for service time here. He proved to be a very good younger pitcher and what is "1" start worth in September 2022 when you are playoff eliminated. The sky is blue. The earth isn't flat. Braxton Garret was sent down mid-September 2022 so the Marlins could keep him under 1 year of service time.

Ok, but there is a distinction to be made about doing it when your team is eliminated from playoff contention in September, and doing it from Opening Day on.

[fish16]

Ok, but there is a distinction to be made about doing it when your team is eliminated from playoff contention in September, and doing it from Opening Day on.

correct. And im saying its revisionist history because if you go look at the actual situation, it made actual sense to keep him down because he's coming off an oblique injury and there is no role in the rotation for him at that time. you can go look back at the thread from last year, there is nothing lou said about garrett being sent down for service time reasons until after the fact. Granted, in lous defense, were not analyzing call ups and downs in september for a team 30 games out of the playoff chase. But there also the fact that garrett actually showed something last year and in a lost year, if that is what they are doing, it makes sense to get the extra year when there is not a spot in the rotation available. If Castano or Hernandez had a rotation spot at that point, the argument would be a lot stronger.

Groshans was truly terrible in the minors last year aside from 30 games in Jacksonville and is a fringe prospect at this point because he doesnt have the power.. To keep him down for service time reasons for a full month and a half over a guy like Garrett Hampson would be a completely different situation entirely. Worrying about 6 years from now for a fringe prospect in a year you are trying to win would be truly stupid.

[rmc523]

lou I’m hoping service time is the #1 reason why Sixto is being rolled out so deliberately. 15 pitch bullpens here and there etc.

I mean, the dude also hasn't pitched in 2 years.

[lou]

Ok, but there is a distinction to be made about doing it when you're team is eliminated from playoff contention in September, and doing it from Opening Day on.

Garrett's 2022 performance absolutely shifted things for him. He was nothing, and then became something, so he certainly moved into the "keep under 172 days of service time bucket."

Personally, I think a 23 year old Groshans falls into the "make sure you get 2029 under team control" bucket for opening day, but if anyone wants to disagree, sure go for it. I think we understate how young an age 22 season is which is where Groshans was last year. For instance:

22 Brian Anderson (2015, A+) - .235/.304/.340, 7.5% BB, 20.6% K Rate, .287 BABIP
22 Jordan Groshans (2022, AAA/MLB) - .265/.360/.340, 13% K rate 16% K rate, .320 BABIP (these are eyeball estimates of me looking at them combined)

Groshans is very very young for his level. To note, Anderson became a good MLB player 3 seasons later at 25 and had a very solid 8.8 WAR over 5+ seasons with the Marlins. We should frankly, be more interested than we are in Groshans as there is a ton of growth upside here. He's not that middling when we account for age. Modest slugging increases and those contact rates holding create a good player fast if he is plus defensively in the infield. As you said, a more veteran guy should be on the bench so Groshans plays every day and gets the reps, and like fish16 said, we don't know anything about Groshans so I think we keep him as long as possible to find out. And it's 39 service days (not even games, days). I will be FLOORED if the organization doesn't keep him in the minors throughout the season for 39 days. And the easiest thing to do is April.