2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-may-n...mpires-can-be/

Fascinating article on umpires and balls and strikes. A must read for everyone who thinks Robo balls and strikes have to happen or baseball will be ruined.

Great article, fangraphs is so good with their analysis. it’s great that they have gotten markedly better, The thing to me though is that it’s not about them being better and that the younger umps are much better (shocker), it’s about there being technology available to be perfect. If it’s shoddy technology, sure, but if you can be perfect, why wouldn’t you? I’m sure In tennis they were very accurate before, but they can be perfect, so why not do it. If the reason not to do it is because of the tradition, that’s a stupid reason not to do it

[fish16]

It is very early and jazz is still super affordable for years, but if they don’t pull reynolds before the year, I think it would behoove the team to extend jazz before the year. It’s clear he can play even though he’s gotten injured each year, and he is clearly the face of the team. Give him his money and build some good will with the fan base and extend your best player. I think doing it now would save quite a bit of money vs if they wait to do it after the year if he stays healthy. Lou can probably run the numbers that make sense, but he’s under team control for 4 more years, sign him to a 7 year 70-80 million extension and see if you can get ahead of a true breakout season and sign him early. He deserves it. That gives him up front money, and allows him to re-enter free agency at 32 for one more contract potentially. I think he’s gonna have an enormous year. If you wait, that can very easily become a ton more after this year if he stays healthy. If they can get reynolds and sign both him and jazz and then also have sandy signed long term, that’s a legit core, all under control for years, and it would go a long way towards building the support of the fan base

[fish16]

this is so completely random, but do any of you have any recollection of cameron maybin making a reappearance with the marlins in 2018? I was just looking up old highlights and i saw emilio bonifacio's inside the parker on his first game with us, cameron maybin scored. so i went down a maybin rabbit hole. why dont i remember maybin back with us that terrible year? Probably because it was a terrible year, but i didnt remember him coming back here at all. random favorite maybin moment- when he first came up with us after the trade, it was super late 2008, he was brought up, we went on a run with him going 16-32 and we got theoretically back in the playoff chase, and won 9 in a row to get 8 games over .500. i remember there was a particular double header that we lost both ends of that ended the run, but those 9 in a row was one of the very few great moments i remember from 2006-2012. Sad that the memory sticks with me, but it does.

Looking now, he's the guy we traded at the deadline for brigman. It's a shame that he and Brinson were part of enormous trades that didnt pan out. really liked both of those guys as human beings. Wish they could have worked out. Glad maybin had a very long career and hope brinson finds a role somewhere for a few years even though he's in japan this year.


On a side note, i could not have been more wrong on the yelich trade. At the time it happened, i remember where i was and thinking they crushed it because Brinson, Monte, and isan were all top 100 guys, but it goes to show you that prospects are just that, prospects. If the reynolds trade ever becomes available, i dont care who in the farm goes, i hope they can pull the trigger. Maybe we're like the cards and you look back and see Sandy and Gallen and think what might have been, but the vast majority of the time, the prospects dont pan out.

Another guy that doesnt get enough attention is Josh Johnson. It such a shame his arm fell apart. Legit horse. And lastly, we had a run of 3 years where we had 7 first round picks taken during the loria era, all pitchers, and not a single one panned out. Tankersly (who had a single moment hist first year), Volstad, Ryan Tucker, Sean West, Aaron Thompson (traded for Nick Johnson that one year where he immediately got hurt), Jacob Marceaux (never a single big league inning), and Brett Sinkbeil. 2005 in particular where we had 5 first round picks in an era where we had a dynamite offense, there are so many what ifs in marlins history.

[fish16]

other random thought- 2017- our top 7 War guys were all hitters, what was the last time that ever happened? Im sure theres a way to research that, but idk- that year- our top 7 War were Stanton, Ozuna, JT, Dee Yelich, Bour Rojas, and then Urena. All 7 were above 2.3 WAR. Our top pitcher was Urena, who served a role for a couple years, but his WAR was 1.7 that year. We won 77 games that year, but jose is such a what if. Whether its him staying or by trade....

[lou]

It is very early and jazz is still super affordable for years, but if they don’t pull reynolds before the year, I think it would behoove the team to extend jazz before the year. It’s clear he can play even though he’s gotten injured each year, and he is clearly the face of the team. Give him his money and build some good will with the fan base and extend your best player. I think doing it now would save quite a bit of money vs if they wait to do it after the year if he stays healthy. Lou can probably run the numbers that make sense, but he’s under team control for 4 more years, sign him to a 7 year 70-80 million extension and see if you can get ahead of a true breakout season and sign him early. He deserves it. That gives him up front money, and allows him to re-enter free agency at 32 for one more contract potentially. I think he’s gonna have an enormous year. If you wait, that can very easily become a ton more after this year if he stays healthy. If they can get reynolds and sign both him and jazz and then also have sandy signed long term, that’s a legit core, all under control for years, and it would go a long way towards building the support of the fan base

The comps say probably something like 6/$73 extension right now (Michael Harris got an 8/$72.... bought out 3 FA years *and* the Braves have 2 options on the back for his age 31/32 seasons. Practically, I'm saying $73m just to get him over Harris on an ego level).

I'd say a hard 6 years for Jazz (2 free agency years, through Jazz's age 30 season so he's a FA at 31 like what Machado is going to be) works for everyone. It preserves Jazz's upside so he can get a monster deal, comps well above Harris (as his 2022 was pretty great) as it's 1 less FA year and no options, etc.

The problem is, if Jazz drops a 5+ WAR season (similar to what Reynolds did in 2021), that math dramatically shifts where Jazz is still looking at a 6 year deal (but through age 31 now).... where we're looking 6/$110 or say 7/$125 (this is what Reynolds wants from what I have seen and him/his agents are right and the Pirates are cheap bastards), or 8/$140-150 etc. So a big year will really ratchet up Jazz in price. Effectively, it's the difference between signing Sandy March 2022 versus March 2023. Jazz seems like the kind of guy who will bet on himself, but that's just me.


Jazz is pretty risky with the bat/can he hit LHP/can he play CF, so I wouldn't be rocking the boat here and going for an $80-90m deal over 6+. That would get it done quickly as the Marlins giving him an extra $10-15m versus comps is a BIG commitment and his agents will convince him. If he wants to bet on himself, we're talking he could literally be tacking on $40-50m in guarantees at the expense of likely 1 FA season.


So TLDR - offer him something around 6/$73 which is extremely fair and a good deal for him and if he says no, and he lights the world on fire next year, he's looking at a $110-150m deal next year over 6-8 years and that still probably works. He'd be 3 years from FA so no way he would turn THAT kind of coin down. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he may be looking at Sandy and see how much money Sandy left on the table by signing. It was a fair deal, but then he won the cy young. I think Jazz bets on himself, but I agree, they can try here. I wouldn't go overboard though.

I'd do this same effective deal for Arraez and shoot for $30-35m for Luzardo. Wait on everyone else and maybe next year Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett, or Puk makes some sense.

[fish16]

andrus signed back with the sox for 3 million

[fish16]

Mish says as of now rotation 1-4 projected seems to be Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, and Cueto, with Cabrera and Garrett fighting for 5th spot. Says they might try to get creative and go with a 6th man rotation but with sandy somehow still pitching every 5th day. That was my concern with the 6th man rotation, because you're taking away a few sandy spots over the course of the year, but if they can manage it it makes sense. Keeps luzardo and Cabrera's innings down, which will allow them to pitch deeper into the year. realistically though, when has anyone ever gotten through spring training as planned with no injuries, let alone well into the season? To me, it's something that will be worked out one way or another in the season via injury, although hopefully it doesnt. Good problem to have.

[Namaste]

It’s a nice problem to have Cabrera and Brax fighting for the 5th spot. Shame we haven’t been able to launch one of them yet for a big bat.

[lou]

andrus signed back with the sox for 3 million

Incredible price for a guy with a 3+ WAR last year. He's a bargain at half of that. He will get more playing time with them, but oh well.

[lou]

It’s a nice problem to have Cabrera and Brax fighting for the 5th spot. Shame we haven’t been able to launch one of them yet for a big bat.

They need them though absent more acquisitions. Luzardo/Rogers likely max out at 150 innings, and who knows with Cueto and Eury/Eder/Sixto. This is a good problem for them to have. It's why in all the trade mentions, I think they need Brubaker coming back from the Pirates. They gotta cover the innings still.

They should make them the combo 5th SP and throw them each 4+ innings on average (130 IP each for season which is likely their max usage). With Sandy following them in the rotation. Bullpen is super rested for Luzardo, Cueto, and Rogers. Protects Cabrera/Garrett getting a third time through the order and balances their innings across the whole year versus thinking about shut downs. The Orioles are going to do this with Grayson Rodriguez BTW. They get it. Also, someone is always going to be hurt so you just scrap this quick and let the 5 guys go with an injury.

Also in this same vein, maybe you do the same thing with Puk and attach him to Cueto. Call Puk a 3 inning guy and get him 90+ innings exclusively tied to Cueto going 1 time through. This also keeps a guy stretched out somewhat if there is a 2nd SP injury and not immediately going to a desperation scenario with Smeltzer or whoever.

Sandy
Luzardo
Cueto ---> Puk (240+ innings)
Rogers
Garrett --> Cabrera (260 + innings)

Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Nance (Enright)
Scott, Okert


I'd do that and then reassess on injuries. Nance has options so you can use him to go up/down until Enright is healthy.

[fish16]

It’s a nice problem to have Cabrera and Brax fighting for the 5th spot. Shame we haven’t been able to launch one of them yet for a big bat.

exactly, especially with Eury, Meyer, Eder, and Fulton all not far away either, plus the ghost of sixto sanchez actually still throwing. They have serious rotation depth, moreso next year than this year after dealing pablo. Granted, you have to have someone available to get them, but if Reynolds ever truly does become available, it just makes too much sense not to trade that pitching for him. Fills both teams needs, both in terms of current talent and future talent.

Sixto is the big wild card for me. It seems like he wont be ready for opening day, but if he becomes available for May, they have serious pitching talent and especially SP depth, plus a much improved back end of the bullpen. It's a tricky thing to balance. You want to do everything you can to improve the lineup this year, but also with one more year of evaluation on these guys, you could either have a situation where a bunch of them flourish and you have an even more ridiculous stockpile of ML ready SP talent, or some could disappoint and that big surplus you have doesnt look nearly as impressive next year. It's a super tricky situation to balance.

I think the smartest move might be to go into the year with what you have and re-evaluate at the deadline. You'd have 3-4 months of seeing the impact of Arraez and Segura, more time to see what we have in fortes, more time to see what Jazz truly is over a full year, and maybe we have 2 legit middle of the order power bats in a good year for Soler and Garcia. They are the 2 big wildcards of the lineup to me. I feel like we know what Jazz is when healthy, and same with Arraez and Segura, but Soler and Garcia can be terrible again, or they can be what theyve been in the past on some occasions and be really solid. It will make for huge swings of what this team can be this year.

To his credit (or detriment), Garcia admitted shockingly that he's a lot better when he's skinny instead of fat and that he was fat last year. He is skinny again, so i think he will be much better this year.

[fish16]

i like the idea of Garrett and Cabrera piggybacked everytime one starts, and you can alternate each time which one starts. Cabrera starts, Garrett follows, then the next time Garrett Starts and cabrera follows. Realistically, it will never happen because again, things on paper never turn out how you plan due to injuries, but in the almost impossible situation in which we have no injuries and 6 quality SP's, i think that makes the most sense.

[Nick]

I find it odd that Cabrera is competing for anything. Dude was fantastic in his 71 innings at the majors last year. I think I've made it clear how I'd like to see the staff handled this year. It'll never happen the way I want it, but very interested to see what they end up doing.

[Todd]

Not really sure why Luzardo is guaranteed a rotation spot. Last season was the first time in his career where he wasn't a complete dumpster fire(including his 12 starts for the Marlins post trade in 2021 where he was beyond awful) and even then it was just when he came back from injury. He was still mediocre in April and May.

[Nick]

Not really sure why Luzardo is guaranteed a rotation spot. Last season was the first time in his career where he wasn't a complete dumpster fire and even then it was just when he came back from injury. He was still mediocre in April and May.

I mean, as good as Garrett was last year, he was clearly better than Garrett, and obviously he was better than Rogers last year.