2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

You're smoking crack if you think DLC or Sanchez are looking around 300 PA. There are 648 starts at LF, CF, RF, and DH. If Jazz/Garcia/Soler play 420 of them (140 per, and optimistic), there are 220+ starts going nearly exclusive to DLC/Sanchez here, with maybe some limited Berti. 300 PA is like 60 starts and some pinch hits. DLC and Sanchez are going to start 200 games, and Sanchez can only start 100 of them due to really not being able to play left handers. Of course include Burdick/Jerar into this if you think they fail.

My crack smoking is another issue entirely. Barring injury, i dont think he's getting regular playing time aside from the occasional spot start. Out of the 648 starts, budget 140 each for Jazz/Garcia/Soler (again, this is barring injury). those guys will play every day. So we're talking 228 starts left in the OF and at DH. I think Berti will start a good amount of games in CF and jazz as the DH a good number of games, and sanchez will get the majority of games against RHP with DLC sprinkled in there. He had just 329 ab's last year with the same group out there, minus bleday's part time role for half the year but adding jazz in a full time role. Soler also missed 90 games, Garcia missed 64, and Sanchez only played in 98 games. He still only had 329 ab's. I dont think there are nearly as many ab's that are going to him as you think there will be. He's just not that impressive of a player, and i know you want to tout his swing changes, but he didnt just learn to become a very good hitter. He's a AAAA bat most likely and a 4th OF at his ceiling. He isnt a guy you give 500 ab's to.

Soler's back is also better, so theres a chance infielders are moved to DH and Soler to LF a good chunk of games as the season wears on to keep everyone fresh. It's not nearly the amount of AB's left over as you think it would be. I also think Burdick will play a big role as the lefty hitting outfielder at some point in the season, if not opening day. I think there's a better chance DLC is moved for a reliever before opening day than there is of him getting 500+ ab's. His september is Cameron maybin 2008 all over again, except maybin played in a couple of actual meaningful games. I will say again, that he had a .609 OPS as late as mid september last year over a representative sample size of ab's. You're basing a lot on a completely meaningless September hot streak.

De La Cruz also graded out really poorly defensively last year, so it's not like he is valuable defensively either. also graded out negatively as a baserunner each of the last 2 years.

[fish16]

I dont think Soler is full time DH is what it boils down to. Obviously he will be the majority of the time, but I think Arraez, Cooper, and Jazz all see a number of starts at DH to keep everyone fresh and to get Berti playing time in various positions. We have versatility, and i think it will be used to fluctuate at DH to give everyone nights off in the field. As a result, Soler will see a good amount of time in LF if he's healthy.

[lou]

My crack smoking is another issue entirely. Barring injury, i dont think he's getting regular playing time aside from the occasional spot start. Out of the 648 starts, budget 140 each for Jazz/Garcia/Soler (again, this is barring injury). those guys will play every day. So we're talking 228 starts left in the OF and at DH. I think Berti will start a good amount of games in CF and jazz as the DH a good number of games, and sanchez will get the majority of games against RHP with DLC sprinkled in there. He had just 329 ab's last year with the same group out there, minus bleday's part time role for half the year but adding jazz in a full time role. Soler also missed 90 games, Garcia missed 64, and Sanchez only played in 98 games. He still only had 329 ab's. I dont think there are nearly as many ab's that are going to him as you think there will be. He's just not that impressive of a player, and i know you want to tout his swing changes, but he didnt just learn to become a very good hitter. He's a AAAA bat most likely and a 4th OF at his ceiling. He isnt a guy you give 500 ab's to.

Soler's back is also better, so theres a chance infielders are moved to DH and Soler to LF a good chunk of games as the season wears on to keep everyone fresh. It's not nearly the amount of AB's left over as you think it would be. I also think Burdick will play a big role as the lefty hitting outfielder at some point in the season, if not opening day. I think there's a better chance DLC is moved for a reliever before opening day than there is of him getting 500+ ab's. His september is Cameron maybin 2008 all over again, except maybin played in a couple of actual meaningful games. I will say again, that he had a .609 OPS as late as mid september last year over a representative sample size of ab's. You're basing a lot on a completely meaningless September hot streak.

De La Cruz also graded out really poorly defensively last year, so it's not like he is valuable defensively either. also graded out negatively as a baserunner each of the last 2 years.

The bold is wrong. Further to note Arraez at 140 games, Wendle 110 (can't start lefties), Segura 130 (will need an extra few off days a little older), and Cooper 110 (he needs real off days right?). We're talking at least 150 starts in the IF are left to give here. So the team has 370 starts to give all over the field when combined with the 220 available at OF/DH (that's full time LF and spot OF/DH duty). Scale that down to 350 also if I'm low on Cooper/Segura. However we can probably scale it up as someone is getting hurt and likely closer to 400 games are needed from LF/Bench guys. It's basic math here. 350+ starts are presently earmarked for just these four roster spots: LF (DLC), Primary OF backup (Sanchez), Primary IF backup (Berti), TBD 13th player/Injury replacements (Take your pick of AAA guys). This is a legit 1,500 PA at minimum. Likely more and closer to 2,000. It's how we very very quickly get DLC, Berti, and Sanchez over 100 starts each/500ish PA, which is what is going to happen as the team is presently configured. It's why they really need another bat to shave time off all these guys, and really 2. It's a ton of faith in a Berti repeat and DLC/Sanchez holding their own. And that's ignoring Wendle isn't a sure thing. "Everything must go right."

You can also keep saying whatever about DLC, but the organization said 500 PA and moving Jazz to CF has no impact on this at all. Also I said I expected DLC's career line so the September hot streak comment is you just being a curmudgeon. These PA are there for the taking and whether we agree or not, they believe in DLC. If you want to pick Sanchez being better, or Burdick? Be my guest, that could happen in June but get ready for DLC as they believe. I'd bet on DLC over Sanchez and Burdick personally, but maybe I am wrong. And who cares as long as someone is competent enough. Further, he was positive defensively in LF (SSS yes). He has average jump rates, elite arm strength, and is an above average runner. He should be a good LF. Just keep him away from CF which is why his defensive rankings suck. That being said, he likely has the lowest defensive value of Sanchez/Burdick but that's more of a compliment to them. We'll see what they do.

Big picture here is, 350+ starts for DLC, Berti, Sanchez, and TBD/AAA guys. Split them how you like. It's a lot of time.

[fish16]

The entire premise of your 500 abs for DLC is a throwaway line from Schumaker in a podcast from November. To act like it’s the organizational plan for him is misguided unless I’m missing something Kim said. He also said at fan fest that Jesus Sanchez is the starting lf essentially going into spring. DLC will be around 300 AB’s. Again, they’ve done nothing to the of other than losing bleday and moving a star in jazz to cf full time. That’s a definite loss of potential available at bats compared to last year, whether you want to acknowledge that or not. In the infield they added Arraez and segura and lost Rojas and Anderson. Garcia and soler both missed almost half the year last year, Sanchez only played 90 something games, dlc was healthy the entire year, and he only got 329 AB’s. He won’t be getting anywhere close to 500. He won’t be starting other than off days. He will get his fair share of AB’s, it won’t be anywhere close to every day

we haven’t had a single player get 500 abs since starlin Castro in 2019 when he played all 162 games, let alone a part time player get there. Last year only 91 players in the entire league got to more than 500 ab's. none of them played less than 132 games. most played in 140+

[lou]

Cherry picking AB versus PA (because walks DO count) to try and make a point is very weak. Rojas (2022, 2021, 2019), Aguilar (2021), Jazz (2021), Castro (2019), and Anderson (2019) all eclipsed 500 PA, as well as in 2020 Anderson, Aguilar, and Dickerson were all pacing the same. Come on.

I'll break it down for you again since we're struggling:

INFIELD
Cooper - 110 starts (fair? He needs real off days and gets hurt. Would be 2nd highest total)
Arraez - 140 starts (fair? Career high 144 last year)
Wendle - 110 starts (can only start vs RHP)
Segura - 130 starts (fair? An extra off day or two for him as he's 33. This might be 10 low but doesn't matter)
Infield starts remaining - 158

OUTFIELD/DH
LF - _______
Jazz - 140 starts (fair? Some off days for lefties)
Garcia - 130 starts (fair? This would be his 4th highest total, coming off injury)
Soler - 140 starts (fair? Would be 3rd highest total, coming off injury)
Outfield/DH starts remaining - 238

So we have 396 starts for
DLC
Sanchez
Berti
TBD 13th guy

Sanchez maxes out as a 110 start player just like Wendle because you can only play him on right handers. So now we have

286 starts (128 OF, 158 IF) for:
DLC
Berti
TBD 13th guy

How much is Berti going to play? He's going to be 33, and likely not as productive as last year. He's going to be needed a TON in the IF, at least 80+ games. Let's just give him 110 starts like Wendle/Sanchez as the strong side of an effective platoon, which would be his career high in games. And they are exclusively in the IF for now as that is where he is best defensively.

So we have 175 starts (128 OF, 47 IF) for:
DLC
TBD 13th guy

And that's assuming *everything* goes right with no major injuries, and they get good production from everyone.

This is where one says, DLC has no playing time obstacles in front of him assuming he's going to hit, as he has a clear as day path to 120+ starts and on top of that, can just peel into the optimistic game projections for Sanchez/Garcia/Soler as well. As said, moving Jazz to the OF does nothing to this path to playing time. Bet the over heavy on 300 PA for both DLC and Sanchez, unless someone like Burdick overtakes them and then bet the heavy over for him. Big picture, Sanchez/DLC/Burdick/AAA OF are going to get 1,000+ PA how the team is constructed so apportion them how you will. (And yes, god willingly they get Reynolds and we can all agree Reynolds becomes 600+ and whoever remains of DLC/Sanchez is 300+).


And let's go further, this is where you realize the Marlins depth potential has Arraez and Berti being able to kick out into LF (as well as Soler), so let's talk about those final 175 games. Since there is low IF depth here as compared to the OF/DH situation where they have 7 guys being able to play those spots, what makes most sense is to get an infielder who can hit LHP and then shuffle the Wendle/Berti/Sanchez/DLC projections above to make them all effectively 90-100+ game starters. Which is more appropriate IMO.

2B - Easily covered with Arraez, Berti, and while starters at other spots, Wendle, Segura, and Jazz can play here. A 2B only would be dumb.
3B - Easily covered with Segura, Berti, and while a starter at SS, Wendle can help here. A 3B only would be dumb.
1B - Easily covered with Cooper, and while a starter at 2B, Arraez can help here. This could work if there is major confidence in Segura/Berti handling SS + Amaya being good.
SS - A platoon starter with Wendle, with skeptical MLB backups with Segura and Berti for off days

It's why the best answer is a SS, and if they can't get one, it's a 1B/3B/OF type as I mentioned Longoria/Drury types all offseason. That'll give them a lot of flexibility. If they can't get either, it is anyone under the age of 39 who can hit LHP at all at 1B/DH and just suck up Soler going to the OF a bit more than a good team would like.


Basically, wise men say, only fools rush in to bad statistical analysis. And Bruce is an asshole for not signing one of the SS (or Nimmo), and for the love of god even just Drury.

[Nick]

In retrospect, the acquisition of Arraez and move of Jazz to CF makes SS the obvious play. Correa would've been the perfect fit. Tremendous production up the middle would've made up for the weaker production from the corners and DH. We would've been ready to rock with this pitching. Our minors would've remained pretty strong. That would've been a damn good offseason. We didn't get it.

[Nick]

but then the Twins maybe don't trade Arraez for Pablo if they don't get Correa.

[rmc523]

In retrospect, the acquisition of Arraez and move of Jazz to CF makes SS the obvious play. Correa would've been the perfect fit. Tremendous production up the middle would've made up for the weaker production from the corners and DH. We would've been ready to rock with this pitching. Our minors would've remained pretty strong. That would've been a damn good offseason. We didn't get it.

Correa would've been the perfect fit without that move/at the beginning of the offseason. It was stupid to not even attempt to sign him, especially after the first 2 deals fell through and his price dropped.

I'd agree it's possible they wouldn't have traded Arraez without the Correa addition, but that also would've allowed us to trade Pablo for a different guy.

[fish16]

Cherry picking AB versus PA (because walks DO count) to try and make a point is very weak. Rojas (2022, 2021, 2019), Aguilar (2021), Jazz (2021), Castro (2019), and Anderson (2019) all eclipsed 500 PA, as well as in 2020 Anderson, Aguilar, and Dickerson were all pacing the same. Come on.

I'll break it down for you again since we're struggling:

INFIELD
Cooper - 110 starts (fair? He needs real off days and gets hurt. Would be 2nd highest total)
Arraez - 140 starts (fair? Career high 144 last year)
Wendle - 110 starts (can only start vs RHP)
Segura - 130 starts (fair? An extra off day or two for him as he's 33. This might be 10 low but doesn't matter)
Infield starts remaining - 158

OUTFIELD/DH
LF - _______
Jazz - 140 starts (fair? Some off days for lefties)
Garcia - 130 starts (fair? This would be his 4th highest total, coming off injury)
Soler - 140 starts (fair? Would be 3rd highest total, coming off injury)
Outfield/DH starts remaining - 238

So we have 396 starts for
DLC
Sanchez
Berti
TBD 13th guy

Sanchez maxes out as a 110 start player just like Wendle because you can only play him on right handers. So now we have

286 starts (128 OF, 158 IF) for:
DLC
Berti
TBD 13th guy

How much is Berti going to play? He's going to be 33, and likely not as productive as last year. He's going to be needed a TON in the IF, at least 80+ games. Let's just give him 110 starts like Wendle/Sanchez as the strong side of an effective platoon, which would be his career high in games. And they are exclusively in the IF for now as that is where he is best defensively.

So we have 175 starts (128 OF, 47 IF) for:
DLC
TBD 13th guy

And that's assuming *everything* goes right with no major injuries, and they get good production from everyone.

This is where one says, DLC has no playing time obstacles in front of him assuming he's going to hit, as he has a clear as day path to 120+ starts and on top of that, can just peel into the optimistic game projections for Sanchez/Garcia/Soler as well. As said, moving Jazz to the OF does nothing to this path to playing time. Bet the over heavy on 300 PA for both DLC and Sanchez, unless someone like Burdick overtakes them and then bet the heavy over for him. Big picture, Sanchez/DLC/Burdick/AAA OF are going to get 1,000+ PA how the team is constructed so apportion them how you will. (And yes, god willingly they get Reynolds and we can all agree Reynolds becomes 600+ and whoever remains of DLC/Sanchez is 300+).


And let's go further, this is where you realize the Marlins depth potential has Arraez and Berti being able to kick out into LF (as well as Soler), so let's talk about those final 175 games. Since there is low IF depth here as compared to the OF/DH situation where they have 7 guys being able to play those spots, what makes most sense is to get an infielder who can hit LHP and then shuffle the Wendle/Berti/Sanchez/DLC projections above to make them all effectively 90-100+ game starters. Which is more appropriate IMO.

2B - Easily covered with Arraez, Berti, and while starters at other spots, Wendle, Segura, and Jazz can play here. A 2B only would be dumb.
3B - Easily covered with Segura, Berti, and while a starter at SS, Wendle can help here. A 3B only would be dumb.
1B - Easily covered with Cooper, and while a starter at 2B, Arraez can help here. This could work if there is major confidence in Segura/Berti handling SS + Amaya being good.
SS - A platoon starter with Wendle, with skeptical MLB backups with Segura and Berti for off days

It's why the best answer is a SS, and if they can't get one, it's a 1B/3B/OF type as I mentioned Longoria/Drury types all offseason. That'll give them a lot of flexibility. If they can't get either, it is anyone under the age of 39 who can hit LHP at all at 1B/DH and just suck up Soler going to the OF a bit more than a good team would like.


Basically, wise men say, only fools rush in to bad statistical analysis. And Bruce is an asshole for not signing one of the SS (or Nimmo), and for the love of god even just Drury.

no one is cherry picking plate appearances vs ab's. not once have i said plate appearances. Again, even if you use plate appearances, DLC had 355 last year, was healthy all year, Sanchez, Garcia, and Soler each missed significant time, and the only OF moves we have made are switching bleday's 238 ab's for Jazz's fulltime role.

It's a stupid thing to continue to fight over, but he won't get 500 ab's or plate appearances, and we can check back at the end of the year. He isnt in any kind of full time role or anything close. He's the 4th OF, he's not getting 500 plate appearances or ab's, no matter how you want to try to predict the math working out.

[rmc523]

Reynolds said he'd ideally like to work out an extension with Pittsburgh, but the reported gap between the two sides is about accurate.

[lou]

Correa would've been the perfect fit without that move/at the beginning of the offseason. It was stupid to not even attempt to sign him, especially after the first 2 deals fell through and his price dropped.

I'd agree it's possible they wouldn't have traded Arraez without the Correa addition, but that also would've allowed us to trade Pablo for a different guy.

Yep, Arraez is just someone else in that scenario - like Gleyber or Casas. Or hell, Royce Lewis/Jorge Polanco+prospects as they still have too many bodies. The Marlins could easily figure out how to shuffle positions here around this. It's the constant, all roads lead back to Bruce being cheap and not getting one of the *five* FA studs at SS/CF. Any of them are missing pieces for how this team is constructed.

[lou]

no one is cherry picking plate appearances vs ab's. not once have i said plate appearances. Again, even if you use plate appearances, DLC had 355 last year, was healthy all year, Sanchez, Garcia, and Soler each missed significant time, and the only OF moves we have made are switching bleday's 238 ab's for Jazz's fulltime role.

It's a stupid thing to continue to fight over, but he won't get 500 ab's or plate appearances, and we can check back at the end of the year. He isnt in any kind of full time role or anything close. He's the 4th OF, he's not getting 500 plate appearances or ab's, no matter how you want to try to predict the math working out.

DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Other backup OF/DH who may emerge (Jerar? Hampson? Allen?) are getting 1,000 PA. Apportion them how you will. Optimistically, DLC and Sanchez are both 400+ and it's fleeting time for Arraez/Berti in the OF soaking up the rest because they got another infielder to help spread the wealth.

[lou]

Also they should have signed Michael Fulmer for $4m creating even more P depth so they can trade for someone else. That's a good RP deal compared to what other guys got.

[fish16]

DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Other backup OF/DH who may emerge (Jerar? Hampson? Allen?) are getting 1,000 PA. Apportion them how you will. Optimistically, DLC and Sanchez are both 400+ and it's fleeting time for Arraez/Berti in the OF soaking up the rest because they got another infielder to help spread the wealth.

I think it’s a useless conversation because I think this reynolds thing gets solved before opening day. If he’s traded they need to do what it takes to get him. Rogers, Eder, Meyer, whatever they want without dealing Cabrera, luzardo, and eury

[lou]

I think it’s a useless conversation because I think this reynolds thing gets solved before opening day. If he’s traded they need to do what it takes to get him. Rogers, Eder, Meyer, whatever they want without dealing Cabrera, luzardo, and eury

We're all in accord here. Puk really moves the needle for me to include that third "major" arm for Pittsburgh (versus Watson/Berry/Cappe), as well as a fourth lefty depth arm. Something like....

Rogers, Meyer, Eder, J.Sanchez, Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds, and a lottery ticket (Gerardo? Peguero?) for Reynolds and either Brubaker or Bednar in a significant 6-2 move. Either arm works for Miami IMO as Garrett can be in the rotation or not, and maybe even Puk could be stretched out. Brubaker seems more likely since he makes some money and Bednar has more control. He's a good 5 at minimum.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett
Bednar/Brubaker
Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Nance/whoever (DL - Enright)
Puk, Scott, Okert

Longterm Eury, Fulton, Sixto, and Bender, along with various RP, show up next year with no pitching free agents for 2024, and only Cueto, Barnes, Floro, and Scott are free agents for 2025. Enormous depth still. Impress us Kim because Bruce has failed us already.