2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

jesus, Nic Enright just announced he has lymphoma and has already undergone his first round of treatments. Hope he gets better.

That is terrible. He's very young.

[fish16]

Gleyber is absolutely available, they are trying to clear his payroll for luxury tax and open up the path for Volpe. The only issue is, can he play SS? I'm not sure if he can, but they might think he can and would make a ton of sense if they can swing a trade for him. I did read he doesn't have the arm for 3B. He hammers lefties and is a sure thing 130 or more starter if he is good enough at SS.

They need a SS unless Berti and Segura are capable of playing call it 600+ innings in the field and are good enough. I don't see it, but maybe I am wrong. That's double their innings there last 3 seasons. Comparing Berti to Andrus isn't comparing guys at the same position. Andrus is a rock solid defensive SS with maybe some hitting upside, see 2022. Berti is a do everything guy who has been deployed mainly at 2B/3B. He's barely played SS and he's now 33. Just saying, oh yea he can play the hardest spot in the field in a new non-shift environment is a big HUH to me. But maybe I am wrong. I'd be HAPPY to be wrong. It's just a bold move to say Wendle/Berti is your SS platoon when you know, you just didn't sign 4 of them in FA like the POS Sherman is. I am glad we like high 600 OPS up the middle defenders now though.

And then, Gurriel still doesn't make sense as then you're opting to put Soler in the OF when you could just sign Profar who has a lot more upside offensively and defensively than a 39 year old Gurriel/Soler in the field IMO. This is where Lee mentions Brandon Drury would have been perfect - and he's right. That would be a perfect guy for this last spot right now to get 100+ starts and just hammer lefties. And if that's too expensive, smart teams like the Braves get guys like Jordan Luplow (.842 career OPS vs LHP) to fill this roll which is what the Marlins would then have. He cost them nothing. We want to be the Braves right? Frankly, let Burdick make the roster to play against lefties if the choice is Gurriel and Hampson is a disaster in spring training. I agree, let Amaya and Groshans play everday for at least 3 months in AAA. Burdick has a platoon advantage split against them and I'll bet on youth and athleticism. Burdick is going to be 26 so he doesn't need the PA as much as Amaya/Groshans. Hell, just play LeBlanc and cycle these guys until one works. Use whatever money on something else.

Honestly, id be ok with burdick and Sanchez pure platoon in LF, maybe trading DLC for 1 more arm with the enright terrible news, or just keeping him as the 5th OF. I just dont want DLC to play a major role on this team. I've beaten this into the ground at this point, but ignoring how bad he was last year for the vast majority of the year and relying on his garbage time stats very late in the year and expecting him to repeat it is a recipe for disaster. I just dont think the guy is very good. Maybe you're right and all of a sudden he changed something with his swing and he's a piece, but i just highly doubt it. I think he got on a meaningless hot streak that wayyyyy inflated his numbers and made everyone forget about how truly terrible he was for most of last year.

It might be a year early, but i think Burdick and sanchez is going to be one of our OF spots locked up for the forseeable future. I know it's easy to forget because of how disastrous last year was for Sanchez both on and off the field, but he was really solid in 2021, and realistically his numbers weren't great last year but they weren't completely disastrous. .682 OPS is not Garcia level.

i still am very very high on him. He has pure power you cant teach. If he can become even below average against lefties, he's a major piece, and if he can't he's a great option against righties. Joc Pederson is my comp for him. If Burdick is as advertised against lefties, that's going to be a really nice pairing in a corner OF spot. Funny enough, we all talked about how terrible Sanchez was going to be in CF, and fangraphs actually rated him as a plus fielder last year, though im not sure how much of that was due to CF and how much of it was due to him in one of the corner OF spots.

[Todd]

jesus, Nic Enright just announced he has lymphoma and has already undergone his first round of treatments. Hope he gets better.

I hope he gets the help he needs.

[lou]

Honestly, id be ok with burdick and Sanchez pure platoon in LF, maybe trading DLC for 1 more arm with the enright terrible news, or just keeping him as the 5th OF. I just dont want DLC to play a major role on this team. I've beaten this into the ground at this point, but ignoring how bad he was last year for the vast majority of the year and relying on his garbage time stats very late in the year and expecting him to repeat it is a recipe for disaster. I just dont think the guy is very good. Maybe you're right and all of a sudden he changed something with his swing and he's a piece, but i just highly doubt it. I think he got on a meaningless hot streak that wayyyyy inflated his numbers and made everyone forget about how truly terrible he was for most of last year.

It might be a year early, but i think Burdick and sanchez is going to be one of our OF spots locked up for the forseeable future. I know it's easy to forget because of how disastrous last year was for Sanchez both on and off the field, but he was really solid in 2021, and realistically his numbers weren't great last year but they weren't completely disastrous. .682 OPS is not Garcia level.

i still am very very high on him. He has pure power you cant teach. If he can become even below average against lefties, he's a major piece, and if he can't he's a great option against righties. Joc Pederson is my comp for him. If Burdick is as advertised against lefties, that's going to be a really nice pairing in a corner OF spot. Funny enough, we all talked about how terrible Sanchez was going to be in CF, and fangraphs actually rated him as a plus fielder last year, though im not sure how much of that was due to CF and how much of it was due to him in one of the corner OF spots.

I think there is a difference between what the organization will do and what I (or any of us) think.

The organization says 500 PA for DLC. They believe. Obviously if he sucks in June they can re-set the team, but they have high expectations now. Frankly, they aren't wrong to give him a real extended look. The statcast is incredible, the new swing is an improvement and did produce results even if there is a BABIP spike. For quick reference, his end of the year call up was an absurd 94 PA, .388/.419/.718 (.443 BABIP), 5.3% BB / 21.3% K (1.4 WAR). Yes the BABIP is SCREAMING there and beyond unsustainable, but his career BABIP is a fair .333 for a guy with 70-80th percent hard hit rates and a 60+ percentile sprint speed. So just unscientifically adjust that to .333 and shave off .110 average points - he's hitting basically .280 now (his career average is .269 for comparison with that .333 BABIP). This isn't like his initial call up BABIP spike where he was hitting .310 but the BABIP was .400+ suggesting major doom and gloom of .230 average was coming (which it did). Even this EOY in a SSS hot streak suggests he was a real viable contributor in the .270+ range with (importantly) more power and tabbing into those hard hit rates. Hence, the swing change argument. Big picture, I'm not going to be surprised if he is a .270/.315/.450+ guy now basically. Which is why the fantasy sites are taking notice as there is a clear path to playing time and he'll steal a few bases. That slash may not look like much as what is a higher 700 OPS worth these days..... but that is legitimately a top 40 offensive slash among all OF for 2022. Offense is down that much where a higher 700 OPS is in fact, really solid as a 2nd and especially 3rd OF. He's also a good LF defender even if he shouldn't be playing CF, so that's just more juice as to why they should really try him out in LF. Basically, he could be a 2+ WAR player and a poor man's Renfore/T. Hernandez/Santander quickly (a little less power, more average, better defense). And that might be a floor. Last mention here, his comparable hitter profile on Statcast is perfect - Dominic Smith and........ JT Realmuto. Smith had his moment and maybe DLC already has and this is all just a SSS blip, but if this new swing produces a consistent .270-.280 hard hit contact, the Marlins are in business. An OF version of Realmuto is a good player you know. Just like Smith who got basically 500 PA in 2022, the Marlins owe it to themselves to get DLC a bunch of time to see if he has figured it out.

So then you compare that to what I think they should do, he should be the 4th OF, they should trade for Reynolds, and he should effectively get the 80-100 off days for Reynolds/Jazz/Garcia/Soler over the course of the season and if he's great, he can start peeling into Garcia/Soler time in the summer. In 2024, he could maybe take over RF/DH if Soler opts out. Sanchez is moved to Pitt (or whoever) in that deal and take the bet on DLC/Burdick/Jerar over Sanchez/Bleday being the better ones. Absent Reynolds, you do the same thing except split Sanchez a bit more into right handers than DLC and let performance dictate who gets more time. As for whether I am right on DLC, I think I believe DLC is his career slash - 574 PA, .269/.318/.430, .333 BABIP, 1.7 WAR. That's it. I'm not expecting fireworks here, however, swing path improvements making him get to that career slash and not be so hot/cold seems fair to me. If that's your longterm 3rd/4th OF, that is very good. He is controlled for a long time.

As for Sanchez, he was neutral in CF and above average in the corner. Which is a huge compliment to him. His problem was obviously offensive when he stopped hitting. I'd say he is a viable backup CF if Jazz can hold his own on lefties. I'd only give up on him if they get a Reynolds type player now. DLC is above him on the food chain today, but that could change by June as he too has extremely high hard hit rates. His top player similarity comp is Javy Baez (2021), which was an .815 OPS with 33% whiffs. If that happens, it means he is platoon splitting right handers at likely huge levels and the Marlins are in real business. I'd agree, a Joc type bat power wise (Joc will walk A LOT more though and whiff A LOT less). So yes, the Sanchez/Burdick platoon could make a lot of sense as Burdick may be the exact opposite but versus left handers. A perfect world (without Reynolds) is definitely a DLC, Jazz, Garcia, Sanchez, and Burdick OF + DH situation (Soler opting out) with Sanchez/Jazz sitting on the lefties, and rotating off days for DLC/Garcia/Burdick on the righties.


There is real hope here with their OF/1B/DH situations with Garcia/Soler/Cooper being healthy, Arraez shifting over somewhere, DLC, Sanchez, Burdick, Jerar, even Austin Allen (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/au...ats?position=C) of Mangum could get involved. Absent a Reynolds level talent move, I'd bet on this working itself out organically. Hence full circle - get the SS.

[sports24/7]

From Barry Jackson’s latest article re. Gurriel:

“As Herald senior baseball correspondent Craig Mish was told, the Marlins pulled their offer to Astros free agent Yuli Gurriel after he sat on it for a week without responding. Miami offered him more than $2 million for one season.”

[fish16]

From Barry Jackson’s latest article re. Gurriel:

“As Herald senior baseball correspondent Craig Mish was told, the Marlins pulled their offer to Astros free agent Yuli Gurriel after he sat on it for a week without responding. Miami offered him more than $2 million for one season.”

that would have been a good buy low for us on a 1 year deal. I bet he ends up back in houston at some point in spring training.

[fish16]

I think there is a difference between what the organization will do and what I (or any of us) think.

The organization says 500 PA for DLC. They believe. Obviously if he sucks in June they can re-set the team, but they have high expectations now. Frankly, they aren't wrong to give him a real extended look. The statcast is incredible, the new swing is an improvement and did produce results even if there is a BABIP spike. For quick reference, his end of the year call up was an absurd 94 PA, .388/.419/.718 (.443 BABIP), 5.3% BB / 21.3% K (1.4 WAR). Yes the BABIP is SCREAMING there and beyond unsustainable, but his career BABIP is a fair .333 for a guy with 70-80th percent hard hit rates and a 60+ percentile sprint speed. So just unscientifically adjust that to .333 and shave off .110 average points - he's hitting basically .280 now (his career average is .269 for comparison with that .333 BABIP). This isn't like his initial call up BABIP spike where he was hitting .310 but the BABIP was .400+ suggesting major doom and gloom of .230 average was coming (which it did). Even this EOY in a SSS hot streak suggests he was a real viable contributor in the .270+ range with (importantly) more power and tabbing into those hard hit rates. Hence, the swing change argument. Big picture, I'm not going to be surprised if he is a .270/.315/.450+ guy now basically. Which is why the fantasy sites are taking notice as there is a clear path to playing time and he'll steal a few bases. That slash may not look like much as what is a higher 700 OPS worth these days..... but that is legitimately a top 40 offensive slash among all OF for 2022. Offense is down that much where a higher 700 OPS is in fact, really solid as a 2nd and especially 3rd OF. He's also a good LF defender even if he shouldn't be playing CF, so that's just more juice as to why they should really try him out in LF. Basically, he could be a 2+ WAR player and a poor man's Renfore/T. Hernandez/Santander quickly (a little less power, more average, better defense). And that might be a floor. Last mention here, his comparable hitter profile on Statcast is perfect - Dominic Smith and........ JT Realmuto. Smith had his moment and maybe DLC already has and this is all just a SSS blip, but if this new swing produces a consistent .270-.280 hard hit contact, the Marlins are in business. An OF version of Realmuto is a good player you know. Just like Smith who got basically 500 PA in 2022, the Marlins owe it to themselves to get DLC a bunch of time to see if he has figured it out.

So then you compare that to what I think they should do, he should be the 4th OF, they should trade for Reynolds, and he should effectively get the 80-100 off days for Reynolds/Jazz/Garcia/Soler over the course of the season and if he's great, he can start peeling into Garcia/Soler time in the summer. In 2024, he could maybe take over RF/DH if Soler opts out. Sanchez is moved to Pitt (or whoever) in that deal and take the bet on DLC/Burdick/Jerar over Sanchez/Bleday being the better ones. Absent Reynolds, you do the same thing except split Sanchez a bit more into right handers than DLC and let performance dictate who gets more time. As for whether I am right on DLC, I think I believe DLC is his career slash - 574 PA, .269/.318/.430, .333 BABIP, 1.7 WAR. That's it. I'm not expecting fireworks here, however, swing path improvements making him get to that career slash and not be so hot/cold seems fair to me. If that's your longterm 3rd/4th OF, that is very good. He is controlled for a long time.

As for Sanchez, he was neutral in CF and above average in the corner. Which is a huge compliment to him. His problem was obviously offensive when he stopped hitting. I'd say he is a viable backup CF if Jazz can hold his own on lefties. I'd only give up on him if they get a Reynolds type player now. DLC is above him on the food chain today, but that could change by June as he too has extremely high hard hit rates. His top player similarity comp is Javy Baez (2021), which was an .815 OPS with 33% whiffs. If that happens, it means he is platoon splitting right handers at likely huge levels and the Marlins are in real business. I'd agree, a Joc type bat power wise (Joc will walk A LOT more though and whiff A LOT less). So yes, the Sanchez/Burdick platoon could make a lot of sense as Burdick may be the exact opposite but versus left handers. A perfect world (without Reynolds) is definitely a DLC, Jazz, Garcia, Sanchez, and Burdick OF + DH situation (Soler opting out) with Sanchez/Jazz sitting on the lefties, and rotating off days for DLC/Garcia/Burdick on the righties.


There is real hope here with their OF/1B/DH situations with Garcia/Soler/Cooper being healthy, Arraez shifting over somewhere, DLC, Sanchez, Burdick, Jerar, even Austin Allen (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/au...ats?position=C) of Mangum could get involved. Absent a Reynolds level talent move, I'd bet on this working itself out organically. Hence full circle - get the SS.

The 500 ab thing for DLC was before they got Arraez and moved jazz to CF. i'm guessing that is cut in half at this point. And id bet heavily against him being anywhere near the level of production the front office is expecting, at least publicly. I just dont think he's much more than a 4th, ideally 5th OF. It would be risky because they would be cutting the OF depth very thin, but especially with the Enright news and im guessing him not being ready opening day (his health is obviously more important than our bullpen), i wouldnt mind a move for another cost controlled bullpen arm for DLC and moving forward with a burdick sanchez platoon in LF. They can still keep DLC and do that, but i wouldnt really trust them to play the right combo there. Burdick is 26. While he could probably use another 2 months in AAA, fuck it, let's see what him and sanchez can do. I'd much prefer rolling with talented young prospects like Burdick and Sanchez (not really a prospect but whatever) than a guy i think is a AAAA bat in DLC. Hope he proves me wrong, but i just dont see it. Was a good trade though to get him for Yimi in 2021 regardless.

Ideally though, we get reynolds. That's the clear obvious move. I just dont think he's available at this point. Maybe if we hang around .500 and he still doesnt sign an extension there and they are out of it by june, things change.

[fish16]

PECOTA has us at 76 wins. I think thats about 4-5 too low. We did only win 69 last year, but that was fairly calamitous to even get that low. Granted sandy stayed healthy, but Cabrera and Luzardo missed significant time, as did Jazz and Soler, plus the terrible year for Garcia. In the 2nd half once jazz went down and they pretty much gave up on the season, we went 26-44. I'd have us right above or right below .500 now with the additions of Arraez and Segura and Cueto to replace Pablo, health from jazz, bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia, and much better luck in close games due to how Kim addressed the bullpen. Obviously injuries can tank any season, but we were a game below .500 on the 4th of july last year. Jazz played his last game on June 28th. If he is healthy and we dont have our usual parade of season crippling injuries in July, this is a much improved team and should hover around .500. 1 more bat like Reynolds and we can talk possible wild card with some luck.

[rmc523]

PECOTA has us at 76 wins. I think thats about 4-5 too low. We did only win 69 last year, but that was fairly calamitous to even get that low. Granted sandy stayed healthy, but Cabrera and Luzardo missed significant time, as did Jazz and Soler, plus the terrible year for Garcia. In the 2nd half once jazz went down and they pretty much gave up on the season, we went 26-44. I'd have us right above or right below .500 now with the additions of Arraez and Segura and Cueto to replace Pablo, health from jazz, bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia, and much better luck in close games due to how Kim addressed the bullpen. Obviously injuries can tank any season, but we were a game below .500 on the 4th of july last year. Jazz played his last game on June 28th. If he is healthy and we dont have our usual parade of season crippling injuries in July, this is a much improved team and should hover around .500. 1 more bat like Reynolds and we can talk possible wild card with some luck.

You know, I didn't realize we were "in it" (we were 10 games out of the division) that long/late in the season.

[fish16]

You know, I didn't realize we were "in it" (we were 10 games out of the division) that long/late in the season.

the only game i went to was the game against the angels where ohtani pitched. We had the chance to get to .500. And it was abundantly clear they had absolutely 0 chance to score runs without Jazz. That was a week after he went down. They went 23 games under .500 from that point on. Realistically they were never a real playoff spot contender because it was painfully obvious their lineup was just abysmal, but they were fairly competitive up until that point. Not good, but not this terrible team. They were a team with a phenomenal rotation and a terrible lineup and bullpen. The hope this year is the rotation is just as good if not even deeper, the bullpen is shored up when they actually do have a lead late in games, and the addition of Arraez and Segura combined with Jazz being back and Garcia and soler being less terrible hopefully leading to an offense that is closer to the middle of the pack than the back of the pack. A lot needs to go right, but this is a lot closer to a complete team than it was last year. A ton rides on health and Soler and Garcia though. A legit left fielder (or SS) or Sanchez taking a huge step forward goes from a .500 team to a possible playoff contender, but as of right now they are relying on the rotation staying healthy, the bullpen being more reliable, and the added focus on contact with Arraez and Segura helping us take advantage of situations where we actually are able to score runs.

That's one thing i think will be much improved. We might not have a ton of opportunities, but we will make use of the opportunities a lot better this year with the added contact and situational hitting. we were 9th worst in strikeouts last year, 4th worst in walks, 4th worst in average at .230, and 4th worst in OBP at .291 as a team. With runners in scoring position, we were second worst in BA at .229, 5th worst in OBP at .314, grounded into the 6th most double plays despite having a lot less opportunities in those situations, 4th worst in slugging,

With runners in scoring position and 2 outs, 5th worst average at .208, 4th worst obp at .304. It's hard to be any worse than that, but the situational hitting and just making contact in key spots should be much improved.

[lou]

The 500 ab thing for DLC was before they got Arraez and moved jazz to CF. i'm guessing that is cut in half at this point. And id bet heavily against him being anywhere near the level of production the front office is expecting, at least publicly. I just dont think he's much more than a 4th, ideally 5th OF. It would be risky because they would be cutting the OF depth very thin, but especially with the Enright news and im guessing him not being ready opening day (his health is obviously more important than our bullpen), i wouldnt mind a move for another cost controlled bullpen arm for DLC and moving forward with a burdick sanchez platoon in LF. They can still keep DLC and do that, but i wouldnt really trust them to play the right combo there. Burdick is 26. While he could probably use another 2 months in AAA, fuck it, let's see what him and sanchez can do. I'd much prefer rolling with talented young prospects like Burdick and Sanchez (not really a prospect but whatever) than a guy i think is a AAAA bat in DLC. Hope he proves me wrong, but i just dont see it. Was a good trade though to get him for Yimi in 2021 regardless.

Ideally though, we get reynolds. That's the clear obvious move. I just dont think he's available at this point. Maybe if we hang around .500 and he still doesnt sign an extension there and they are out of it by june, things change.

Arraez and Jazz really have no impact on DLC and Sanchez right now. Jazz replaces Bleday on the roster and Arraez replaces Rojas, with players shuffling around (and to mention Segura replaced Anderson). Just think about this, best case scenario is Jazz/Garcia/Soler each start 140ish games. That's 225 OF starts to go. DLC/Sanchez/Berti are effectively going to get 100% of them absent another move and injury. This is going to be 950-1,000 PA appearances. This is a lot of PA to move around. These guys are going to have long looks.

And yes, Reynolds should be 600 of those PA, DLC or Sanchez 350+ of them, and Berti finding 80+ starts in the IF somewhere and not considered a real OF option.

This is going to work itself out I think. It won't be spectacular, but they have the bodies in the OF/1B/DH.

[Nick]

Arraez and Jazz really have no impact on DLC and Sanchez right now. Jazz replaces Bleday on the roster and Arraez replaces Rojas, with players shuffling around (and to mention Segura replaced Anderson). Just think about this, best case scenario is Jazz/Garcia/Soler each start 140ish games. That's 225 OF starts to go. DLC/Sanchez/Berti are effectively going to get 100% of them absent another move and injury. This is going to be 950-1,000 PA appearances. This is a lot of PA to move around. These guys are going to have long looks.

And yes, Reynolds should be 600 of those PA, DLC or Sanchez 350+ of them, and Berti finding 80+ starts in the IF somewhere and not considered a real OF option.

This is going to work itself out I think. It won't be spectacular, but they have the bodies in the OF/1B/DH.

It's going to work itself out to being below average production from OF/1B/DH at best.

[lou]

PECOTA has us at 76 wins. I think thats about 4-5 too low. We did only win 69 last year, but that was fairly calamitous to even get that low. Granted sandy stayed healthy, but Cabrera and Luzardo missed significant time, as did Jazz and Soler, plus the terrible year for Garcia. In the 2nd half once jazz went down and they pretty much gave up on the season, we went 26-44. I'd have us right above or right below .500 now with the additions of Arraez and Segura and Cueto to replace Pablo, health from jazz, bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia, and much better luck in close games due to how Kim addressed the bullpen. Obviously injuries can tank any season, but we were a game below .500 on the 4th of july last year. Jazz played his last game on June 28th. If he is healthy and we dont have our usual parade of season crippling injuries in July, this is a much improved team and should hover around .500. 1 more bat like Reynolds and we can talk possible wild card with some luck.

It's low, but it's 79 low. I can buy 76 if we expect a midseason sell-off to contenders of the Floro/Solers of the world.

They need Reynolds and Andrus(or better), and if Rogers/Cabrera is moved for Reynolds, to add minimum Brubaker/Bednar to that deal with everyone else being minor leaguers (or sign a similar arm FA).

It's just that easy and then MAYBE you can best the Phillies and Brewers if mostly everything goes right.

[lou]

It's going to work itself out to being below average production from OF/1B/DH at best.

Below average may be hard with Jazz and any sort of Garcia/Soler rebound or mini-breakout from DLC/Sanchez, but sure. This is why they need Reynolds, but OF/1B/DH isn't a disaster on paper with some real hope. They need those last 2-3 guys.

Or, Bruce should have signed a SS and stopgap SP (another one) to let Kim blow it out for Reynolds, and then give an aggressive IFA budget for 2 years to make up the prospects. But I digress.

[Namaste]

If we are sellers at the deadline we’ll win 72-74

If we are buyers we can be in the WC conversation with 85-87 wins.

We won’t be nearly as bad in 1-run games. Not everything will go right. But there will be 1-run game regression to the mean.