2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Dax fulton debuted at #5 in the MLB.com list of top 10 lefties in the minors. Would strongly suggest that he will be in their top 100 list when it comes out. I could see us trading him, and if we do, i wouldnt be surprised if we are shocked at how much another team might value him in a trade. He was always highly touted, just had his TJ surgery at the wrong time relative to when his draft was. Huge body at 6'7, last year compared to his 2021 season, he improve his k/9 by almost 2 full k's to 11.41, dropped his walk rate by over a run to 3.19, lowered his era from 4.8 (lots of bad luck in there) to 3.6, and dropped the WHIP from 1.39 to 1.31. Plus his HR rate went down by a lot. Gave up 6 HR's in 76 innings in 2021 compared to just 8 in 118.1 innings last year.

They had Dax ahead of Eder, which i agree with. I think Eder is highly overrated based on a very limited sample before an injury 2 years ago. He's a guy along with Rogers that i would push to trade for an impact bat now before they pitch this year and lose value.

[rmc523]

which sucks, because like ive said before, he was fucking filthy in that 2020 year when he made his debut. But the thing with him all his career has been will he be able to stay healthy. So far the answer is a resounding no.

Eh, he was filthy the first time he'd see a club. Second time around I remember him not being as good.

[Nick]

Eh, he was filthy the first time he'd see a club. Second time around I remember him not being as good.

He had a grand total of 7 starts total, 2 starts where it was the 2nd time the team had seen him. Hard to say that that was going to be the pattern going forward for the rest of his career based on that.

[lou]

Kim Ng is apparently meeting with Gurriel right now at his home in miami according to a cuban reporter. He should be super cheap coming off a down year. He's not good defensively but as a super cheap contract as a 1b/DH option or if they have confidence in his ability to bounce back, as the option at 1b if they trade Cooper, i like it. He seems to be like Garcia in that he has a bad year followed by a good year every year. From his first full year in 2017 on, his war has been 2.2, 1.7, 3.9, 0.0, 3.3, -.9. His 2 best years have been 2021 and 2019, 2 worst years have been the shortened 2020 season and last year. He won the batting title 2 years ago, and like many of the other players we've shown interest in, he does not strike out. Career K percentage of 11.2%. Would like it as another option behind Cooper at 1b and Soler at DH.

It's recreating the Aguilar problem. This is really stupid unless Cooper or Soler is indeed traded, and then you really got to hope his -age 39- year old season is much better than last year.

I don't like it in a vacuum, but if it's part of a series of moves, maybe I guess.

[lou]

Dax fulton debuted at #5 in the MLB.com list of top 10 lefties in the minors. Would strongly suggest that he will be in their top 100 list when it comes out. I could see us trading him, and if we do, i wouldnt be surprised if we are shocked at how much another team might value him in a trade. He was always highly touted, just had his TJ surgery at the wrong time relative to when his draft was. Huge body at 6'7, last year compared to his 2021 season, he improve his k/9 by almost 2 full k's to 11.41, dropped his walk rate by over a run to 3.19, lowered his era from 4.8 (lots of bad luck in there) to 3.6, and dropped the WHIP from 1.39 to 1.31. Plus his HR rate went down by a lot. Gave up 6 HR's in 76 innings in 2021 compared to just 8 in 118.1 innings last year.

They had Dax ahead of Eder, which i agree with. I think Eder is highly overrated based on a very limited sample before an injury 2 years ago. He's a guy along with Rogers that i would push to trade for an impact bat now before they pitch this year and lose value.

That's interesting with Dax and the bold is huh? Eder didn't pitch and Rogers had an epic down year peripherals suggest he was much better than. So that's a bold take.

[rmc523]

He had a grand total of 7 starts total, 2 starts where it was the 2nd time the team had seen him. Hard to say that that was going to be the pattern going forward for the rest of his career based on that.

That's fair.

I guess I've just always been down on him because of his lengthy injury history (he was injured often before the JT trade), and viewed him as a risky return for JT. Fast forward to now, and it's clearly continued to be an issue.

[fish16]

That's interesting with Dax and the bold is huh? Eder didn't pitch and Rogers had an epic down year peripherals suggest he was much better than. So that's a bold take.

Eder i think will lose value the second he pitches again if he's not as dominant as he was in 2021, which i dont think he will be. i think he has been severely overrated based off of 70+ innings 2 years and 1 major elbow surgery ago. Rogers i think will crater in value if he has another bad start to the year. There is still value there as a bounce back with those peripherals. If he comes in and still lacks confidence again and still cant out perform the peripherals, you're talking about a major drop in value.

It's based off the fact that i still think both have value, but both could easily crater in value by the middle of may. Fulton i think will continue to go up, and as ive said i choose Meyer over Eder to keep every single time.

[Nick]

I think the small sample size thing can go either way with Eder. Honestly if you go by peripherals, height, build, velocity, stand the two guys next two each other without watching them pitch and a scout's going to pick Eder. The reason Meyer went in the top 3 and Eder was a 4th round pick was because Meyer dominated in college and Eder was terrible. Now there was almost a full year where we didn't see Meyer and Eder pitch in games because of Covid. We've seen over and over again our pitching development get guys to figure it out, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point, but we won't really know until we see more of Eder.

[fish16]

I think the small sample size thing can go either way with Eder. Honestly if you go by peripherals, height, build, velocity, stand the two guys next two each other without watching them pitch and a scout's going to pick Eder. The reason Meyer went in the top 3 and Eder was a 4th round pick was because Meyer dominated in college and Eder was terrible. Now there was almost a full year where we didn't see Meyer and Eder pitch in games because of Covid. We've seen over and over again our pitching development get guys to figure it out, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point, but we won't really know until we see more of Eder.

Out of our top 4 pitching prospects, i'd rank them Eury obviously, then Meyer, then Fulton, and then Eder. I think Eder has the lowest ceiling out of all 4 of those guys, and his floor is not significantly higher than any of them.

[lou]

Out of our top 4 pitching prospects, i'd rank them Eury obviously, then Meyer, then Fulton, and then Eder. I think Eder has the lowest ceiling out of all 4 of those guys, and his floor is not significantly higher than any of them.

It's hard to say what is going to happen here, but I'd swap Eder/Fulton for now but some scouting reports on Fulton's FB velocity/Eder health may change my mind quickly.

[fish16]

Fulton has 3 inches and at his peak will likely have 20 or so pounds on Eder. Plus he is 3 full years younger than eder. Id bet Fulton ends up with the higher fastball velocity for his career. According to MLB.com's ranking from today, Fulton sat 93-95 on the FB and touched 97 in 2022. Eder in 2021 apparently sat 93-96 and touched 98 briefly. So right now they are similar. Eder is likely done growing but Fulton is likely going to continue to put on strength and grow into his body, so id think he ends up with slightly higher velocity, but it will be close.

And i dont want this to sound like i think eder stinks, i think he has potential, but i also think he has a super short track record and he wasn't the most incredibly decorated pitcher coming out of college. If he can be a suitable 2nd piece in a deal behind rogers for a guy like reynolds, i think you have to pull that trigger immediately.

[lou]

Fulton has 3 inches and at his peak will likely have 20 or so pounds on Eder. Plus he is 3 full years younger than eder. Id bet Fulton ends up with the higher fastball velocity for his career. According to MLB.com's ranking from today, Fulton sat 93-95 on the FB and touched 97 in 2022. Eder in 2021 apparently sat 93-96 and touched 98 briefly. So right now they are similar. Eder is likely done growing but Fulton is likely going to continue to put on strength and grow into his body, so id think he ends up with slightly higher velocity, but it will be close.

And i dont want this to sound like i think eder stinks, i think he has potential, but i also think he has a super short track record and he wasn't the most incredibly decorated pitcher coming out of college. If he can be a suitable 2nd piece in a deal behind rogers for a guy like reynolds, i think you have to pull that trigger immediately.

Don't take that bet with his mechanics. Remember his scouting report (from FG) - Fulton is young and lanky, he’s a relatively stiff athlete without the mechanical grace and ease that would typically lead one to project on the velocity. Fulton and Eder are both very volatile prospects likely not within top 100. It's probably a toss up, but for me, Eder has a reliever floor with the arsenal (assuming health) and Fulton may just get blasted if deception and only one plus pitch is his calling card. But they do have a lot going for them. We'll see what happens this year.


Frankly, I'm not going to be surprised if a larger majority of these guys turn into (really) good relievers. You can easily see this as the staff next year (Fulton in AAA. He doesn't have to go on 40 man so he saves a player and then add post Super 2 for a summer 2024 debut)

Sandy, Luzardo, Pablo/Cueto, Rogers, Eury
Cabrera, Meyer, Bender, Sixto/Chargois/Nance
Garrett, Scott, Okert, Eder

I mentioned the "keep everyone" team before (besides Pablo) and that could be a really really interesting staff, and by all means project Cabrera, Garrett, Meyer, and Eder here to collectively throw 450+ innings in 2-3 inning waves all year. Make them all 35-40 appearance guys throwing a time through the lineup, etc.

If you're going to try and win, that staff has the depth to survive injuries with multiple multiple interesting multi-inning relievers stretched out. They still need 3-4 bats, but if Pablo is one, a minor league trade is 2 (gotta cash in Berry/Salas/Cappe/Watson and other sort of thing), they get lucky with one of Groshans/Edwards/Amaya/Pick a LF/other (or sign Profar), and they sign another one (and I don't mean Profar here), it gets pretty interesting.

We shall see.

[Namaste]

Fwiw, MLB.com released top 10 LHP prospects

Dax landed at #5 and Eder at #8

Eury is at #3 for RHP. He’d be #1 if he played for a big market team

I’m eager to see what Fangraphs spits out.

[fish16]

I think we’re gonna sign gurriel soon

[fish16]

And we are showing interest in Chapman