2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

We didn’t have Soler clogging up DH the 2 years before either. Having all 3 never made much sense; it was partially a fit/roster construction problem.

Exactly.

[fish16]

We didn’t have Soler clogging up DH the 2 years before either. Having all 3 never made much sense; it was partially a fit/roster construction problem.

2 things on that point-

1). No one is arguing for Hosmer (or whoever the backup 1b option is) to have a major role starting multiple times a week like they were trying to do with all 3 of cooper, aguilar, and soler. It's a backup plan for 2 incredibly injury prone guys. Again, Soler has 14 career injured list trips. Cooper has missed over half the games we've had since he's been here. Whatever the backup option is, whether its hosmer, belt, longoria, i dont care who it is, but they need a proven veteran option as a backup for those 2. If one gets hurt and you're trotting out an unproven Leblanc or Groshans, that's how you tank weeks at a time and fuck up an entire season. To be clear, if we sign Hosmer, he is purely a bench bat. He is not a platoon option. He is a veteran, professional hitter who can step in and start and provide steady, albeit unspectacular production, in the very likely event that 1 or both of these severely injury prone players get hurt.

2) I think if aguilar and cooper and Soler produced like they were doing the previous 2 years, youre talking more about the good idea to keep all of them fresh as opposed to how bad of a fit it was. between the 3 of them. I would have never brought aguilar back because i thought the decline was obviously going to happen last year, but i think it's revisionist history a little bit. Also, the idea was Soler was capable of playing LF, not that the 3 of them would switch off at DH and one of aguilar and cooper played 1b. The idea was, most days, for all 3 of them to play and for Soler to be a full time LF or at least play in the field the majority of games.

[fish16]

You gotta stop taking things to extremes - there is no love affair with Groshans or LeBlanc, but compared to Hosmer *they are likely better with more upside.* That's just how bad Hosmer is - it's not a compliment those other guys are good starters right now. Hosmer is not giving "quality ABs." Look at Hosmer's stats? He's BAD. Groshans defensive value alone at 1B and slap hitting would likely trump Hosmer quickly, and LeBlanc at least hits the ball hard so even a 50 point BABIP drop may produce some slightly above replacement level results plus being able to play off 1B which is needed.

If we want to rank all of these names for who should be the 6th infielder on the roster (after Cooper, Jazz, Segura, one of Wendle/Rojas, likely Berti/but whoever, and _____), and to note this is a 400-450 PA role splitting time at 3B/1B so plenty of PA to not inhibit any prospect growth, the answers are:

1 - Longoria (and being able to trade Wendle/Rojas)
2A - B. Anderson reunion under $4m (assuming health) (and being able to trade Wendle/Rojas)
2B - Groshans
3 - Just keeping Wendle and Rojas and saying fuck it to backup 1B, and get a 1B glove to Bleday as the 4th OF and say good luck
4 - Belt --- > Trading Cooper (and Wendle/Rojas) and picking an option above
5 - Desperation - LeBlanc
6 - Fireable Event for Kim - Hosmer, in any permutation as he is terrible and the worst player here including a .220 hitting LeBlanc. MiLB deals excluded, sure sign him to that.


Other ideas (like trading for Arraez, moving many other IF to clear enough time at 3B for him) are also good ones, but we can't add in every trade idea here as that sets off a motion of moves as innings have to be replaced.


They can't hold two 1B only with Soler. They *really* need Longoria or to trade for some similar 1B/3B guy, unless they just are convinced Groshans is going to be a 1B/3B asset (I agree, that sounds like a 2024 thing and not now). So final answer is, Longoria, trade, or take the Groshans leap of faith. Nothing else makes much sense here as I do not believe Anderson is healthy as if he was, they'd have kept him for this slot. A good team would have a veteran here and use Groshans as the call up. So let's be a good team.

again, my point is that im find with the backup 1b option being longoria if he wants to sign with a bad team and play out of position. My main point is that they desperately need a backup 1b option that isnt groshans, leblanc, etc given the injury issues with Soler and Cooper. I dont care who that veteran option is, I care that they have one. Groshans and Leblanc will be below replacement level bats.

[lou]

again, my point is that im find with the backup 1b option being longoria if he wants to sign with a bad team and play out of position. My main point is that they desperately need a backup 1b option that isnt groshans, leblanc, etc given the injury issues with Soler and Cooper. I dont care who that veteran option is, I care that they have one. Groshans and Leblanc will be below replacement level bats.

Longoria. Would. Not. Be. Out. Of. Position. Imagine me clapping loudly between every word for emphasis. Justin Turner is never going to play 3B for the Red Sox. He is not out of position at 1B. Please understand 1B is not an issue for legitimate infielders to handle and all of them would do a better job than Hosmer. Rojas could easily handle 1B, but he is just not going to hit much so you don't choose that as option A. Longoria (or Turner or Drury) give you hope there offensively (obviously).

You're probably right on LeBlanc, but probably wrong on Groshans even if he may be limited to a sub 1 WAR player. But the best case scenario is they are the callups in 2023 and maybe Groshans earns a spot in 24.

[lou]

2 things on that point-

1). No one is arguing for Hosmer (or whoever the backup 1b option is) to have a major role starting multiple times a week like they were trying to do with all 3 of cooper, aguilar, and soler. It's a backup plan for 2 incredibly injury prone guys. Again, Soler has 14 career injured list trips. Cooper has missed over half the games we've had since he's been here. Whatever the backup option is, whether its hosmer, belt, longoria, i dont care who it is, but they need a proven veteran option as a backup for those 2. If one gets hurt and you're trotting out an unproven Leblanc or Groshans, that's how you tank weeks at a time and fuck up an entire season. To be clear, if we sign Hosmer, he is purely a bench bat. He is not a platoon option. He is a veteran, professional hitter who can step in and start and provide steady, albeit unspectacular production, in the very likely event that 1 or both of these severely injury prone players get hurt.

2) I think if aguilar and cooper and Soler produced like they were doing the previous 2 years, youre talking more about the good idea to keep all of them fresh as opposed to how bad of a fit it was. between the 3 of them. I would have never brought aguilar back because i thought the decline was obviously going to happen last year, but i think it's revisionist history a little bit. Also, the idea was Soler was capable of playing LF, not that the 3 of them would switch off at DH and one of aguilar and cooper played 1b. The idea was, most days, for all 3 of them to play and for Soler to be a full time LF or at least play in the field the majority of games.

You gotta understand the problem here in that you now have a 2 man bench (as the backup catcher doesn't count and Hosmer/Cooper is just a pinch hitter) and Soler is going to be forced into the OF semi-frequently if you do that. It's recreating the problem.

The concept of the bold is correct, they just need this player to be able to play 3B, or I guess a better LF than Soler if we really split hairs and they do just keep all of middle infielder types and choose to play Berti a bunch in the OF too.

Again, the easiest solution is Longoria, and if he is unsignable due to wanting a better team/whatever, it's a healthy Brian Anderson, believing in Groshans, or trading for someone. Hosmer shouldn't even be a footnote here. He (or Belt) only makes sense if Cooper is jettisoned and they are the Cooper replacement. And in that scenario, we take Belt miles ahead of Hosmer.

[Erick]

Was looking at free agent options, and I found a random name who I think could be good.

Edwin Rios

-Left-handed
-1B, but versatile to play other positions (literally listed as a “1B/3B”)
-Big time power hitter, has shown it in limited time
-Been blocked in the majors because the Dodgers are stacked

Could be an intriguing option that could be had for nothing. If I remember correctly, I’ve also seen him hit a couple of bombs at LoanDepot Park too.

Probably wouldn’t be good for headlines, but seems like a good fit.

[lou]

Was looking at free agent options, and I found a random name who I think could be good.

Edwin Rios

-Left-handed
-1B, but versatile to play other positions (literally listed as a “1B/3B”)
-Big time power hitter, has shown it in limited time
-Been blocked in the majors because the Dodgers are stacked

Could be an intriguing option that could be had for nothing. If I remember correctly, I’ve also seen him hit a couple of bombs at LoanDepot Park too.

Probably wouldn’t be good for headlines, but seems like a good fit.

Given the new "we want contact hitters" approach, not sure he is a fit. But MiLB deal, sure? Why not.

It would be great if they could conjure up out of nothing like Ty France or Yandy Diaz. That's the perfect kind of guy to just appear out of nowhere right now (which pretty much happened with those guys). I'd find that profile and take many swings at it (Groshans does fit that profile TBH but he needs a year or three probably).

[fish16]

Mish, who in recent months has definitely hesitated to put rumors out there, has now begun to strongly hint at a Pablo + something for what he terms are fantastic additions. Says its up to kim to pull the trigger. In other tweets he further clarifies it's an OF. Who could that be?

I can’t go into full detail but the players discussed thus far were/are fantastic additions in my opinion. Kim has to be the one to decide inevitably. Her call clearly.

I doubt it's reynolds because the pirates would want something with more control. So who falls into this category? Verdugo + for Pablo and Wendle feels light for Pablo. I like Verdugo but he's coming off a somewhat down year. Does he qualify? Could it be dylan carlson? He's coming off a slight down year but he is a pure CF, a former top prospect but you cannot qualify him as a prospect.

Pablo + Wendle/Rojas for Carlson and Burleson? I would do that in a heartbeat i think. Who else qualifies and fits the mold he is talking about. There is talk about Kim the SS for the Padres and Grisham. But again, like some of these other names, Grisham is coming off a down year, though he has potential. Kim doesnt do much for me as a slap hitting SS whose value is mostly defensive. Who could we be missing as an OF for pablo who could be considered an established impact OF and not a prospect?

The more i think of it, the more i think Carlson + _____ for Pablo and Rojas/Wendle makes a ton of sense for both sides. We seem to have a lot of chemistry with their front office since we've had a few trades with them it feels like. Could Carlson be the piece? Down year, but his BABIP was .281. And he crushed lefties still and we were one of the worst teams in history against lefties last year. But does that move the needle? And does that rule us out for Reynolds? If it doesnt, i would pull the trigger. You add Carlson as a high upside piece, Reynolds as a great bat, sign Cueto as an innings eater and Longoria as a 1b/3b guy. I like that team a lot.

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper/Longoria
2b- Jazz
SS- Whichever of Rojas/Wendle is leftover/ Segura or Jazz
3b- Segura/Longoria
LF- Reynolds
CF- Carlson
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
Bench- Berti, DLC/Sanchez, Stallings, Longoria or Cooper platoon bench guy,

If you can get Reynolds for Rogers +Eder/Meyer + Salas/Cappe/Lewis, you still have a rotation moving forward of:

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett plus still have Eury, Eder/Meyer, Fulton long term. That's a contender for a wild card spot if we stay healthy.

[fish16]

and i pray that its not cedric mulins. That bat would take an immediate nose dive here, and the bat isnt special to begin with.

[fish16]

Also, the phils fans reaction to Segura leaving is super encouraging for us. I am seeing that he was a fan favorite there and they think we got a steal with the value of his contract, which we did. He apparently also murders the mets so their fans were hoping he left the division.

[Namaste]

Dylan Carlson has 5 WAR over the last 2 seasons
Cedric Mullins has a 9.4 WAR over the last 2 seasons

Cedric Mullins for me please if it’s on the menu. As a side dish please get Johnny Cueto.

[fish16]

Dylan Carlson has 5 WAR over the last 2 seasons
Cedric Mullins has a 9.4 WAR over the last 2 seasons

Cedric Mullins for me please if it’s on the menu. As a side dish please get Johnny Cueto.

Agree on Cueto. In regards to Carlson and Mullins, youre trading for the next 3 seasons, not the previous 2. Last year Mullins was 3.4 WAR in 672 ab's whereas Carlson was 2.4 in almost 200 fewer ab's. Mullins is the type of guy to come here and go from a .730 OPS to a .670 OPS. Carlson is absolutely more risky, but the upside with the bat is higher. Both would be good additions, but id want more upside if the move to get either of those 2 guys is for Pablo. For prospects id take either, but i dont know if i love either for the asset of Pablo. Carlson also has an extra year of team control than Mullins and mullins is already in arbitration starting this year. Spotrac estimates him at around 5 million compared to Carlson making essentially the league minimum.

If you can get Mullins for just prospects, im all for it. But for Pablo as our best major league trade asset, give me Carlson and Burleson from the cardinals. Neither would be my favorite additions. Id still prefer to get Arraez for Pablo and use the other guys like Rogers, Eder, Meyer + Prospects for Reynolds. Then sign longoria and Cueto.

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper/Longoria
2b- Arraez
SS- Jazz (i think they need to at least try him there)
3b- Segura/Longoria
LF- DLC/Sanchez or Bleday
CF- Reynolds
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
Bench- Berti, Wendle/Rojas as superutility, backup LF, Stallings, Longoria

SP- still have Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Cueto then Eury, Eder/Meyer leftover, and Fulton long term, plus Miller in the much longer term.

[lou]

Mish, who in recent months has definitely hesitated to put rumors out there, has now begun to strongly hint at a Pablo + something for what he terms are fantastic additions. Says its up to kim to pull the trigger. In other tweets he further clarifies it's an OF. Who could that be?



I doubt it's reynolds because the pirates would want something with more control. So who falls into this category? Verdugo + for Pablo and Wendle feels light for Pablo. I like Verdugo but he's coming off a somewhat down year. Does he qualify? Could it be dylan carlson? He's coming off a slight down year but he is a pure CF, a former top prospect but you cannot qualify him as a prospect.

Pablo + Wendle/Rojas for Carlson and Burleson? I would do that in a heartbeat i think. Who else qualifies and fits the mold he is talking about. There is talk about Kim the SS for the Padres and Grisham. But again, like some of these other names, Grisham is coming off a down year, though he has potential. Kim doesnt do much for me as a slap hitting SS whose value is mostly defensive. Who could we be missing as an OF for pablo who could be considered an established impact OF and not a prospect?

The more i think of it, the more i think Carlson + _____ for Pablo and Rojas/Wendle makes a ton of sense for both sides. We seem to have a lot of chemistry with their front office since we've had a few trades with them it feels like. Could Carlson be the piece? Down year, but his BABIP was .281. And he crushed lefties still and we were one of the worst teams in history against lefties last year. But does that move the needle? And does that rule us out for Reynolds? If it doesnt, i would pull the trigger. You add Carlson as a high upside piece, Reynolds as a great bat, sign Cueto as an innings eater and Longoria as a 1b/3b guy. I like that team a lot.

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper/Longoria
2b- Jazz
SS- Whichever of Rojas/Wendle is leftover/ Segura or Jazz
3b- Segura/Longoria
LF- Reynolds
CF- Carlson
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
Bench- Berti, DLC/Sanchez, Stallings, Longoria or Cooper platoon bench guy,

If you can get Reynolds for Rogers +Eder/Meyer + Salas/Cappe/Lewis, you still have a rotation moving forward of:

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett plus still have Eury, Eder/Meyer, Fulton long term. That's a contender for a wild card spot if we stay healthy.

Kim *only* likes slap hitting middle infielders who value is strongly tied to defense lol. Rojas? Wendle? Segura? Mostly Berti (base running too!)? Groshans (projected plus 3B as former SS, low K, low power, etc.)?


I think it's Trent. It creates a hole for SD so they must have a backup plan for a CF to even float his name out there.

2.1 WAR last year..... with a .231 BABIP (career .274). He's a 3+ WAR guy if you get 2021 offense and 20/22 defense, and a 4+ WAR guy if you get 2020 offense and 20/22 defense. He has something all of us like here - an insanely high defensive floor so likely can't get killed if all you get is 2022, his offensive production last year will suppress arbitration numbers, he's 26 so entering his prime so he should still be ascending, likely motivated after a bad year, BABIP suggests he gets better fast, he is a lefty so this sets up a potential platoon split if they find a right handed CF partner (Trent isn't showing hitting RHP harder yet on career, but in theory he should), potential arb buyout if he looks good enough offensively this year, and has the overall upside for Marlins to demolish this trade if he regains stroke. High floor, High ceiling, Cheap.

Kim also has a great contract (2/$15) for a guy who just dropped a 3.7 WAR and projected 2.9 this year. He also hits lefties well so Wendle would be a good guy to swap in against RHP occasionally and Berti/Jazz-Kim-Segura would be a really solid LHP infield, with Jazz-Kim/Wendle-Segura/Wendle against RHP. Having 2024 under control with Kim I think is important given current insane FA market, as it gets you consistent IF production moving forward.

I think I'd do this as the Marlins would need a little more as yes you are right, this is a lot of defensive value so at least some prospects need to come back even if not spectacular ones.

Pablo, Rojas
Grisham, Kim, FV45, FV40


And then you can move for Reynolds/Bednar, clear some payroll, and sign the cheaper veterans to round things out:


Rogers/Luzardo, Meyer, Salas, J.Miller/Comp Pick, Sanchez/Bleday, Soriano/whoever
Reynolds, Bednar

Wendle (Boston)
Prospects (clears $5.5m)

FA - Longoria
FA - Cueto
FA - Wacha


This is probably $105-110m with -nothing- longterm on the books besides Sandy, unless Reynolds is bought out (which he should, 6/$100, 7/$120 sort of thing)

Fortes, Stallings
Longoria, Cooper
Jazz, Berti
Kim (Segura)
Segura (Longoria/Berti)
Reynolds, DLC
Grisham (Reynolds/DLC)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers/Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Cueto
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha(6th SP)
Scott, Bleir, Okert

With your short/longterm pipeline after the massive Pirates trade:

C - ____/Mack-Hernandez
1B/DH - Berry-Jerar/Johnston
2B - Edwards-Lewis/Morisette
SS - Watson/Nasim
3B - Groshans-Cappe
OF - Sanchez or Bleday-Burdick/Mesa Jr.-Peguero-Gerardo
SP - Eury-Eder-Fulton-Sixto/Millbrandt
RP - _____/Soriano-Nardi-Simpson-Villalobos-McCambley-Johnson-others

This starts looking pretty good if we imagine a world Eury/Eder/Fulton/Sixto/RP prospects are players, they can fill out the roster/bench with Edwards/Groshans/LF guys in the future, and they *finally* do the Jayson Werth signing and bring in that final piece which is clearly missing here. Frankly, that could even be a SP and go with Sandy, Eury, FA SP, Rogers/Fulton, and Cabrera longterm and turn Garret/Eder/Sixto optimistically into bridge 100-120 IP assassins.

I'd say this is one really good player away from Philadelphia for the wild card in 2023.... or Sandy/Jazz/Reynolds all dropping 5-6 WAR seasons. Or Eury coming up and being the chosen one too.... and given current situations, I'd take the Sandy/Jazz/Reynold bet those guys produce 15+ WAR. They'd have a real chance + some real juice to trade at the deadline.


In any event, sure trade for Grisham and Kim but all roads lead back to Reynolds here and getting Pittsburgh three big time arms and Salas.

[lou]

2b- Arraez
SS- Jazz (i think they need to at least try him there)
3b- Segura/Longoria

If Jazz can actually play SS (or 3B/CF and Segura can play SS for 2-3 years as he does have that option year), you can sign me up for this also assuming fair packages all around. Segura was good enough at SS in 18/19 until he was moved because they signed that menace Didi. Or, put Arraez at 3B for 100+ games or so.

I don't think this is a thing defensively, but offensively it would clearly work and we can do the same analysis above shifting some guys around, getting Michael Taylor for CF instead, with Reynolds/Bednar being the proverbial missing piece.

All roads lead to Pittsburgh and I can't imagine a scenario they would balk at Rogers/Luzardo, Meyer, Salas, Miller/Comp Pick, and throw-ins. A legitimate a high upside SP, effectively two top 100 prospects as they can sit on Meyer a year, and a recent 2nd rounder as a 4th player. Great deal for them. They are assholes if they don't do it, or give Reynolds a reason to take $100-120m.

[Nick]

Give me Grisham, Kim and Luis Campusano.