2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

A note on Edward Cabrera is warranted. He has been named under various trade scenarios.

There's no crystal ball to help gauge a player's future performance, but there is a statistical basis to compare Cabrera to Sandy Alcantara at the same age. If you look at the numbers of the two, Cabrera looks amazingly similar to Sandy at this point in his career. Their strike out and walk ratios were nearly identical. Both showed comparable stuff.

While there are abundant similarities between the two, durability seems like the significant difference. No way I trade the promise of an Alcantara clone with so much team control. If Alcantara is deemed as untouchable, Cabrera should be seen as equally so.

[Lee Stone]

Alcantara to Padres for Tatis Jr., Dylan Lesko, and other prospects. Lesko is returning from TJ surgery and is a fantastic pitching prospect. Lopez, Cabrera, Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Perez and Eder remain as a top flight rotation.

[Namaste]

First the PED’s then the motorcycle crash. What dumb thing will Tatis do next? Pass.

[lou]

A note on Edward Cabrera is warranted. He has been named under various trade scenarios.

There's no crystal ball to help gauge a player's future performance, but there is a statistical basis to compare Cabrera to Sandy Alcantara at the same age. If you look at the numbers of the two, Cabrera looks amazingly similar to Sandy at this point in his career. Their strike out and walk ratios were nearly identical. Both showed comparable stuff.

While there are abundant similarities between the two, durability seems like the significant difference. No way I trade the promise of an Alcantara clone with so much team control. If Alcantara is deemed as untouchable, Cabrera should be seen as equally so.

We can make an argument as to why not to trade any SP on the Marlins. Because they are all good. They need radical longterm offensive upgrades, so any can go (except Sandy) with the right package.

That being said, I think the smart idea is to probably identify which 4 guys you like best longterm (this is probably Sandy, Eury, Rogers/Luzardo, and Cabrera), and then move Pablo and two more. That should produce a lot of bats and start leveling off the team.

[lou]

First the PED’s then the motorcycle crash. What dumb thing will Tatis do next? Pass.

I wouldn't do Sandy, but I'd trade Eury/Pablo/others fast for Tatis. This organization needs to take a home run swing and he has top player in baseball upside. He'd never be available unless he were a knucklehead and maybe that opens the door to a move like this and we can chalk this up to him being 23/24.

Also I'm playing 4D chess in my head as if he's terrible, it's a contract albatross and then maybe Bruce will sell the team knowing he has a $300m player liability and he's only worth $500m. Of course, this is why this would never happen.

[Lee Stone]

We can make an argument as to why not to trade any SP on the Marlins. Because they are all good. They need radical longterm offensive upgrades, so any can go (except Sandy) with the right package.

That being said, I think the smart idea is to probably identify which 4 guys you like best longterm (this is probably Sandy, Eury, Rogers/Luzardo, and Cabrera), and then move Pablo and two more. That should produce a lot of bats and start leveling off the team.

How can Eder not make your longterm list? His only professional innings have been brilliant! And Dax Fulton is looking fantastic.

[lou]

How can Eder not make your longterm list? His only professional innings have been brilliant! And Dax Fulton is looking fantastic.

He does? But he hasn't pitched in a year and still has massive reliever risk. Fulton does also as he's a deceptive delivery guy, but if his velocity goes up maybe he is in fact moving up a wrung here.

All 12 of them make the longterm list. This is probably the rungs today:

Sandy
Eury
Rogers, Luzardo, Pablo, Cabrera
Meyer, Garrett, Eder
Fulton
Sixto, Miller (just very far away but interesting and certainly has real value)

Big picture for me:

Pick your favorite 4 of the top 6
Trade 3 of the next best 5
Keep the bottom 3 as they can only really ascend in value


It's all deal specific, but in a perfect world I think Pablo, Luzardo, and Garrett are likely the trades. All 3 coming off big highs in 2022, two make money so that sheds over $8m to do whatever with now (Cueto?), Luzardo/Garrett have crazy pitch mixes so they'll likely never get much over 150-160 IP unless they turn into a monster like Dylan Cease, etc. Sandy/Eury/Rogers/Cabrera would be my pick as they have the most innings potential and enormous upside (and this isn't an insult on Luzardo, I love him but someone has gotta go), and I'd bet on Meyer and Eder being a very good "5" or exceptional reliever, with Fulton being a reasonable prospect after them to hopefully develop into a #4 or better and there is always Sixto if he ever gets healthy. Maybe McCambly or someone surprises this year also.


Big radical offensive changes are needed. Even better if you just trade "2" of them and sign a real guy next year.

[Lee Stone]

At this moment, Alcantara would bring a much stronger return than any two of the others.

[lou]

At this moment, Alcantara would bring a much stronger return than any two of the others.

And set back the organization 2 years, the same way trading Yelich did.

This is the *worst* idea unless you're getting back Julio Rodriguez, Aldy Rutschman, Wander Franco, Bobby Witt, and maybe there are 2-3 other guys and none of this will ever happen.

[Nick]

Blows my mind that Lee is like 80 and yet is totally down for 3 more years of rebuilding, despite us being in rebuild mode since Sherman and Co. got here.

[rmc523]

I wouldn't do Sandy, but I'd trade Eury/Pablo/others fast for Tatis. This organization needs to take a home run swing and he has top player in baseball upside. He'd never be available unless he were a knucklehead and maybe that opens the door to a move like this and we can chalk this up to him being 23/24.

Also I'm playing 4D chess in my head as if he's terrible, it's a contract albatross and then maybe Bruce will sell the team knowing he has a $300m player liability and he's only worth $500m. Of course, this is why this would never happen.

Except if he knows he can’t afford the contract, why would he approve a trade for the guy already with the contract to begin with?

[lou]

Except if he knows he can’t afford the contract, why would he approve a trade for the guy already with the contract to begin with?

There is always the to try and win and it may not ever be a bad contract for his production, but as stated, "Of course, this is why this would never happen."

[lou]

Blows my mind that Lee is like 80 and yet is totally down for 3 more years of rebuilding, despite us being in rebuild mode since Sherman and Co. got here.

Listen, 2025 might be LIT though.

Parenthesis is their year of service time. We're keeping EVERYONE.

Fortes (3-Super 2), Mack (1)
Berry (1)
Jazz (4), Segura (1 contract year left)
Watson (1)
Groshans (3), Cappe (1)
DLC (4), Sanchez (4)
Salas* (1)
Garcia (1 contract year left)
Bleday/Jerar (2+)

Sandy (3 remaining years), Rogers (4), Luzardo (4-was super 2), Cabrera (3-super 2), Eury (2)
Meyer (2), Sixto (3), Bender (3), Chargois (5)
Garrett (3-super 2), Eder (2), Fulton (1), Okert (5)


* MLB pipeline suggests he has athleticism for CF, so someone has to go here

And Pablo was likely traded so maybe that improves the OF situation, or god forbid they spent some real money.

Contracts - Sandy, Garcia, Segura ($39m)
Arbitration - Fortes, Jazz, DLC, Sanchez, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Chargois, Garret, Okert.....$40m or more depending on how good
Club Controlled Minimum - Everyone else - $9m

=$88m. Keep the party going Bruce. And you can lower that over $15m getting rid of Segura, Chargois, and Okert, and replacing with Edwards and two club controlled relievers.

So NOW can we spend money?

[rmc523]

#circlenextyear....again

lol

[lou]

Saw that Jim Bowden suggested a deal for Reynolds could be Watson, Meyer, Fulton, and Mesa Jr.

So no current top 6 SP, Eury, any other top 100 prospects (Berry, Salas, maybe Cappe), or the healthier of the two major injured arms (Eder?).

Where do we sign up for this Jim?