2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

If we want to plot a real contender for 2023, I think we're limited to two scenarios at this stage. Also I am IGNORING Bruce budget constraints, but this is what they'd need IMO to get to a projected 45+ WAR team which is effectively 6th-8th in the NL aligned with Phillies/Brewers.


1 - Trade the fucking house for Tatis (Eury, Pablo, Salas, Meyer/Eder, one of the LFers, and current bullpen member). Then do some subsidiary moves (move Wendle to Boston for prospects, trade for M. Taylor for CF so make it a wash), sigh Longoria, and sign someone like Cueto/Wacha. Bank on SD being out on him and devoting longterm payroll to Machado/Soto, and see if an overwhelming pitching package and your best non-Berry hitting prospect can do it. This is a terrifying move and yes unlikely as hell, but if Tatis is "fine," and combined with some ordinary dudes like Taylor/Longoria/Cueto to stopgap some production, you can sell me this is a contending team as 2019-2021 Tatis was that good. This team is probably another player away, but maybe sign both Cueto/Wacha and trade another SP for an OF upgrade (Laureano-Garrett, etc.). This is a $105-110m team, or $115-120m team if they did sign both SP and traded for another upgrade).


2 - And the more realistic (emphasis for comedy) scenario, is trade the house for Reynolds/Bednar/Brubaker (Rogers/Luzardo, Meyer, Salas, J. Miller, Burdick, McCambley sort of thing), swap Wendle/M. Taylor again and use Boston as a conduit, load up Cleveland with Garrett and DLC for Rosario and prospects, send Pablo/Scott to Minnesota for Arraez/prospects. Also sign Longoria, Cueto, and Wacha here to bridge to next year. If Luzardo is the one traded (as he has payroll above minimum).... This is a $115-120m team

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Longoria)
Jazz (Rojas/Arraez)
Rosario, Rojas
Arraez, Longoria
B. Reynolds, J. Sanchez
M. Taylor (Reynolds/Sanchez vs RHP half the time)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Brubaker, Cueto, Cabrea (and Eury, Eder, Fulton, and Sixto are still here)
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha (6th SP/longman)
Bleier, Okert, Castano/Nardi/Simpson

It's expensive and boy did you trade 4 of the organizations top 8-9 SP doing this, but there are now solutions longterm at 2B (Jazz, I'd wait a year to extend but you have him for 4), SS (Rosario 5/$75 extension sort of thing), primarily 3B/everywhere (Arraez 5/$55 extension sort of thing + Groshans), and LF (Reynolds 7/$120m sort of thing, and yes this comps out well to this based on Nimmo and Reynolds service time, includes 2023), and optimistically have one of 1B/DH figured out quickly in a year or two with Berry, one corner OF spot with Garcia/Sanchez/Bleday/Jerar who are still around, catcher with Fortes hopefully good enough, and we get back to the biggest issue CF and just fucking deal with is later as no one is available as you didn't trade for a guy from Arizona. If everything goes perfect, they might even have another SP to trade.

So yea is Bruce spending $115-120m even if a ton of that roster peels off budget next year (Cooper, Rojas, Longoria, Taylor, maybe Soler opt out, Cueto, Bleier, and could non-tender Floro and/or Stallings, etc.). I don't think that asshole will spend this much and be a bottom 20 payroll team for a top 10-12 team projection with massive upside. But the point is, it will take this level of "holy shit" cohesive moves to get this team into a *maybe* contender if they can beat the Phillies/Brewers. This is asking for A LOT at this stage of the offseason IMO, but maybe they did have to wait to this point for teams to get desperate as FA is pretty thin.


3 - I know I said 2 options, but option 3 is also a path to contending but its not for this year and is the "kick the can" to 2024. Its trade Pablo for prospects really whenever, ideally a longterm SS/CF, do *nothing* but sign cheap 1 year veterans this offseason, trade everyone with less than 3 years of service time at the deadline this year besides Scott, and we do this dance again next offseason, with this pitching staff penciled in and likely a better farm.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Eury
Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Chargois, Enright/Nance/Soriano/whoever
Scott, Okert, Eder

That might be extremely exciting if the prospect arms work out, so would Bruce then sign Machado? Devers gets to free agency? Pablo got a bat, they *really* sign another with one of those 2, and then can sprinkle about a stop-gap 1B to get to Berry in a year, maybe another LF/DH type if all the guys fail and/or Soler opts out? Salas/Cappe/Watson all still around so would they for the love of god trade one of them as a top 100 prospect and get some more help?


I'm expecting # 3 here at this point and they are biding their time until Eury is really ready, Meyer is healthy, Eder has gotten feet wet, etc. It's frustrating, but only really Pablo is going to be a "loss" on this team the next 2 years and they can keep running this back to maybe create a window one of Jazzes last few years. Basically, they'll eventually hit on everything one year and then quickly tear it down again because this organization has no hope or vision.

They had 800 million options of guys to sign this year and didn't even attempt, why would they sign someone next year?

[lou]

They had 800 million options of guys to sign this year and didn't even attempt, why would they sign someone next year?

Oh I have -0- confidence also, but if we are pitching ideas of how could they contend doing nothing in 2023, the # 1 selling point is experience, and it's mostly pitching:

-Luzardo turned into a true # 2/3 and his pitch mix leveled so he can throw 30 starts
-Rogers rebounded and looks closer to 21 than 22
-Cabrera/Garrett (who I forgot to list above, that's how many arms they'd have) had full seasons and arms built up for loads and look good
-Eury/Eder got feet wet and are ready for 2024 in major roles
-Meyer/Bender good rehabs, ready for 2024 even if Meyer is shifted to "the closer" which is fine
-Sixto works out?
-Is Fulton close? What about the McCambley/Sorianos/Nardi/Simpsons, are plus pen arms developing?
-Is Berry a fast riser and summer 2024 player?
-Are Groshans/Edwards/Bleday/Sanchez suitable platoon/role players at minimum?

These are all youth questions, building up arms, injury related, etc.

So to answer, why would they sign someone, if most of that above comes to pass and frankly, not much there is too unreasonable, and Sandy/Jazz are Sandy/Jazz, maybe there is more confidence in the 24 team versus 23 to move to the $120-130m payroll level and go for it. I'm not holding my breath as they have shown no reason to believe they will do anything. Bruce should sell.

[rmc523]

That's all fine and dandy, but none of that helped the offense (I know we're all agreeing, just voicing frustrations aloud).

[lou]

That's all fine and dandy, but none of that helped the offense (I know we're all agreeing, just voicing frustrations aloud).

Yes, but this is the real pitch for 2024 in that thought process.

Fortes, ____
____
Jazz, Edwards
____, _____
Groshans
DLC, Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar
____
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Cabrera, Luzardo, Eury
Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Chargois, Enright/Whoever
Okert, Garrett, Eder


Depending on Jazz/Rogers/Luzardo arbitration numbers, this is effectively a $57-63m team of 21 players (plus Stanton payments to NYY). Which is *awesome* if you consider what that pitching staff may be throwing. Subtract $9m if Soler opts out.


-Pablo trade gets a longterm stud C/SS/CF

-Spend some real Jayson Werth money on a bat < ----- The real key here. Devers? Machado? Screw Groshans, he can move. Maybe Rosario is a free agent for SS? Sign Nola and trade younger SP?

-Trade out farm (Salas/Cappe, 1st/2nd round 2023 pick, Fulton/Miller, and I.Lewis could be a strong package) for a third big one.

-Stopgap 1B/DH with a 1 year guy and pencil in Berry sooner rather than later there

-A SS backup should not be a big deal here and maybe it is Nasim Nunez if that BB rate is for real, or they just keep Rojas/Wendle on a 1 year simple extension like they have.

-If Soler goes, have $9m more to play with for a 6th bat


Basically, keeping the pitching opens up major options. But yes, just voicing frustration as we can do this same exercise right now and they did not do anything (so far anyways).

But would that staff fully healthy and MLB ready on paper change their mind? I'd fucking hope so as what is the point of any of this if they do nothing when every pitcher has arrived which should be 2024?

[rmc523]

Except every year, player X Y and Z get injured, so you could always kick the can down the road waiting for the fully healthy roster, which never happens. At some point, you need to go for it. And I don't know if I trust Kim to do that.
Aside from the hesitancy to do much in the offseason, her in-season roster management has downright sucked. I'd advocate for her contract not being renewed, or outright being let go based on what we've seen so far. Either way we're taking a PR hit. Rip the bandaid off.

[lou]

Except every year, player X Y and Z get injured, so you could always kick the can down the road waiting for the fully healthy roster, which never happens. At some point, you need to go for it. And I don't know if I trust Kim to do that.
Aside from the hesitancy to do much in the offseason, her in-season roster management has downright sucked. I'd advocate for her contract not being renewed, or outright being let go based on what we've seen so far. Either way we're taking a PR hit. Rip the bandaid off.

This is their business model though!


I don't think any PR hit comes from firing Kim - Stallings/Garcia/Soler/doing nothing. What has she done? I mean if Bruce gives no budget that is one thing and not her fault at all, but they supposedly offered Abreu $20m. So even if you ditch Cooper then if they had signed Abreu, you have $16m to play with in FA this year and where is that money being allocated right now? Because it isn't. So what gives with Kim here besides -0- creativity and you must be creative for THIS job.

And then, because if you trade say Pablo, Luzardo, one of Wendle/Rojas, and Scott, that $16m you have to spend DOUBLES, so you have $32m to play with + whatever you got back from Pablo and Luzardo which will be major assets. So now Kim has some REAL assets to work with and why isn't THIS now happening? If Pablo/Scott = Arraez/low end prospects, Luzardo/Meyer/Salas/Other FV45/40 guys = Reynolds/Bednar/Brubacker, and Wendle swaps into M. Taylor sort of thing, those 3 bats + SP + RP cost effectively $19m so you *still* have $13m to spend on this team:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Jazz
_____, Rojas
Arraez, Berti
Reynolds, DLC
M. Taylor
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett, Brubaker (and still have Eury and Eder)
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Nance
Bleier, Okert, Castano

So hence, why not Garret/DLC it to Cleveland for Rosario plus likely some sort of prospect arm coming back (and not an insignificant one as marlins trading a lot of control here), so now you have 4 offensive upgrades (3 of which major ones with Reynolds, Arraez, and Rosario), and you need to sign a stopgap SP for $4m bucks to replace Garrett who you just traded (as Rosario is $9m coming out of the $13m left). Yes the SP is thinner, but bet on Eury/Eder/Fulton/Sixto????? You have to do something????? Or maybe just spend more than $4m bucks on a more legitimate guy like Cueto. Because duh.

But that team - + Reynolds/Arraez/Rosario/M. Taylor/Bednar/Brubaker/real low end SP stopgap/FV 45 guy added to Rosario deal and subtract Pablo/Luzardo/Wendle/Scott/Meyer/Salas/three FV 45/40 prospects in Reynolds deal is likely a 5+ win improvement. They'd need another upgrade or two somewhere or for a real break out to happen (Garcia 3+ WAR, Rogers back to 4+ WAR, etc.), but you're in striking distance.

So backlash on Kim? Fuck that. Even with the "we only have money for Jose Abreu budget" they can do the above and that team is pacing.... 42 WAR projection land and the Phillies/Brewers are around 45. Jazz and Sandy playing at their 2022 paces (as analytics systems have them lower than 2022 production) alone gets you within that margin of error. Just those two.


So they suck. Maybe it's solely Bruce and he won't let them spend, but given they did offer Abreu some money, I'll take my chances on that team above and replace Garrett with some $4m SP flyer. Dig real deep and find another Thompson/Bender/N. Anderson or god forbid, you could just sign Cueto and Wacha and run that $110m team I mentioned above.

This all should have happened already. I know I am preaching to the choir here, but PR hit? No way. Her lack of actions here speak the loudest and this is a merit firing. Of course, they will have 2+ months to spring training so wow us.

[geemoney]

On a positive note, it appears Jerar Encarnacion is having a big season in the Dominican League. Led the league in OPS among hitters with 50 ABs.

https://theathletic.com/4003607/2022...ly-de-la-cruz/

[Todd]

I would like to note that there definitely will be a large backlash if the Marlins remove Kim Ng. If you look at other fan forums or Reddit she gets effectively zero blame for the current state and has a lot of support from other fanbases.

[lou]

I would like to note that there definitely will be a large backlash if the Marlins remove Kim Ng. If you look at other fan forums or Reddit she gets effectively zero blame for the current state and has a lot of support from other fanbases.

So no backlash? What matters are Marlins fans and the home town? Who cares at all what other teams fans think about the Marlins FO?

And as stated above, even if Bruce is the larger problem with BS payrolls (which I do believe), she isn't using her assets efficiently to build a cohesive team (see Abreu money scenario above, why did they carry Aguilar/Cooper/Soler, etc.). She's either over valuing the Marlins SP, under valuing other team's players or FA, or a little of both. There is a problem when the only move is Chargois/Edwards in a lopsided Rays just gotta clear the 40 man trade. Especially when this team is this close to being pretty good at an $80m payroll. The only thing I can think about is, they are putting their marbles in the 2024 basket when all the pitching is *ready.* Get through this year without injury, and it's effectively a top 5 staff with top 1 upside on paper at a $60m payroll needing 5-6 bats (with Pablo to trade). That's an even better gameboard than this year *if it happens* so is that what they are waiting for in the perpetual waiting game?

Ultimately, they get till spring training, but nothing inspires confidence. But no one will care if Kim is fired if the team keeps sucking, and they are heading in that direction as a low 70s win team once they jettison veterans for prospects at the deadline. That is of course, assuming they can trade off people at the deadline and not just a RP.

[Namaste]

I absolutely love Jean Segura

[Namaste]

2 years/$17 million

[Namaste]

So Jazz to SS and Miggy Ro fills in where needed?

[Namaste]

Or likely Segura plays 3B.

[lou]

Or likely Segura plays 3B.

This is what is being reported. SSS but tremendous 3B defender over 100+ innings in 2020. FG has a 2.5 WAR projection which would be *amazing.* He was a 1.7 WAR last year.

This does not make any sense absent further moves IMO, so we shall see.

[fish16]

Good signing, but also wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s the latest guy to come here and start opsing.650. I think it signals a Rojas or wendle trade, though a Rojas wendle platoon at ss would probably produce good results. Overall good signing, but I have to see it to believe it with any hitter this team signs in free agency