2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Todd]

You were right - they did outright poteet and holloway but they refused assignments and gone for nothing

It's pretty maddening.

[rmc523]

I think they kept Holloway and Poteet and assigned to AAA. Neidert they let go.

I think this offseason is at:

Austin Allen (MILB FA)
Reminton Batista (MILB - Trade Henry)
Dylan Brice (MILB FA)
Paul Campbell (Outright-AAA)
JT Chargois (MLB!!! They did it! - Trade low level prospects)
Jose Devers (Outright-AAA)
Alex De Goti (MILB FA)
Xavier Edwards (MILB - Trade low level prospects)
Nic Enright (Rule V)
Jake Fishman (Outright-AAA)
Geoff Gartlieb (MILB FA)
Chi Chi Gonzalez (MILB FA)
CJ Hinojosa (MILB FA)
Jordan Holloway (Outright-AAA)
Bryan Hoeing (Outright-AAA)
Jake Mangum (MILB - Trade Hernandez/Brigham)
Cody Poteet (Outright-AAA)
Franklin Sanchez (MILB - Trade Hernandez/Brigham)

Lost - B. Anderson, J. Brigham, P. Henry, E. Hernandez, L. Diaz, C. Sulser, Neidert, negligible prospects

If this isn't kicking ass in an offseason, I don't know what is.


In all fairness, I like the bolds - for what they are - but holy fuck nothing major for a team that won under 70 and needs a lot of help even if "unlucky."

I kind of want them to do nothing to see if ANYONE goes to a game.

The problem is there are too many casual "fans" that will just show up with no actual interest in the team.

Not to mention, they'll probably view it as "see, people aren't coming, we can't spend yet", not realizing it's the opposite.


---

We've had a few usable guys let go for nothing lately.

[lou]

An update of how they COULD get out of this hole with some creativity.

Three trades.

-Marlins - D. Jansen, Ryu+$10m, Kasevich (Jays 2nd Rd 3B prospect), Horwitz (Jays upper level 1B, could become platoon option), Van Eyk (good Jays RP prospect)
-Twins - Rojas, Scott, Simpson, Marlins throw in
-Blue Jays - B. Garrett, Kepler, Burdick

Jays need to clear money to get under luxury tax with Kiermaier deal, get a SP and LF for Jansen and an add on with Burdick. They'd have another $3-5m to play with in FA. Marlins trade out good useful parts to Twins, and get better position options in return so Kepler can be lopped in. Twins set up R/L platoons all over as they didn't get Correa and have lefty reliever depth. So effectively, it's Garret and absorbing $5m for Jansen (the Marlins only take on $5m here even if Ryu is deadweight of $10m here), and spare parts for better spare parts. Eat the money. It's not a lot and means more to Jays!


-Miami - Varsho, Mantiply
-Arizona - Rogers, Fortes, Meyer/Salas, Mack, Villalobos

Varsho is majorly cashed in for Rogers and Meyer/Salas, as well as the combo of Fortes/Mack is a really good 3rd/4th piece. They need catchers. Last piece is a bullpen throw in. Marlins get an enormous franchise changing CF upgrade and a good pen lefty.
(Or just swap this entire trade for Reynolds and Bednar and swap out Fortes for Stallings and figure out other players they'd want for Mack/Villalobos as they'd need an upgrade there)


-Miami - A. Rosario, X. Curry (backend SP prospect ready now from Cleveland)
-Cleveland - R. Laureano, Bleday
-Athletics - J. Miller, I. Lewis, Marlins Comp. Balance Pick, Clev. Comp Balance Pick

Cleveland gets a major OF upgrade, plus shed over $5m in payroll to sign a pitcher. Marlins get SS and a potential SP option/bullpen for this year and future. Oakland gets a pretty good prospect package for 3 years of Laureano as they burn it to the ground.


This team is $100m in 2023 even with Ryu deadweight, with $30+m in expiring contracts entering 2024 and projected arbitration raises for Jansen, Jazz, Rosario (resign FA), Varsho, Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Chargois, Mantiply, and Okert would effectively net it all out so nothing raises. The parenthesis are next man up for injuries:

2023
Jansen, Stallings (Allen)
Cooper (LeBlanc, Horwitz)
Jazz (Edwards)
Rosario, Wendle
Berti, Groshans
DLC, Sanchez (Horwitz, Jerar)
Varsho (Mangum)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, _____ (X. Curry, Sixto.... Eury, Eder... and maybe Ryu is back in September)
Floro, Chargois, Enright, Nance (Curry, Sixto, Soriano, Brazoban)
Mantiply, Bleier, Okert, Castano (Nardi, Eder)

Top 10 prospects or so - Eury, Berry, Meyer/Salas, Eder, Cappe, Watson, Fulton, Groshans, Kasevich (new), Edwards, Horwitz (new), and Sixto (and Bender on IL)

They need a SP in 2023 probably and maybe Justin Turner still makes sense here, but how much higher can things go payroll wise? That team would be awesome if they could sign Turner and a decent stop gap SP and push to $120m. They still have have prospects to trade, but maybe Castano/Curry/Sixto could be a SP until Eury/Eder are ready later?

In 2024, they'd need a backup catcher (Stallings too pricey), starting 1B (but Berry is coming and you got the Jays gut Horwitz), backup SS, and no pitchers assuming Eury, Eder, Curry, and Bender all take spots (and Sixto isn't even accounted for here if he gets healthy!). This doesn't include they still could trade Pablo, which would move the payroll projection to $90m in 2024 and get back a ton even if only 1 year of control. Meaning Pablo turns into 1-2 of those holes (I'd imagine he could turn into a good young backup catcher type and some prospects we like which is fine) and the $10m he'd cost turns into ideally your 1 year 1B starter as you wait for Berry. Meaning they'd have payroll equilibrium, but now a cohesive team with some real youth everywhere and big time upside.


The fact I can do a permutation of this that kind of makes sense for all and is under $100m is maddening. I'm really at a loss at this front office for the sheer lack of creativity. If you're going to be cheap, you need to do weird out of the box stuff like Oakland/Tampa has been doing for 2 decades. So get weird and make it work.

[lou]

The problem is there are too many casual "fans" that will just show up with no actual interest in the team.

Not to mention, they'll probably view it as "see, people aren't coming, we can't spend yet", not realizing it's the opposite.


---

We've had a few usable guys let go for nothing lately.

I'm not too worried about most of them - Anderson, Poteet, etc. haven't latched on quickly so how much value was there really? It's a little strange, but none of this is moving the needle probably.

They just gotta go for it in some capacity. Even if it doesn't work, try. It's been 5 years.

[rmc523]

I'm not too worried about most of them - Anderson, Poteet, etc. haven't latched on quickly so how much value was there really? It's a little strange, but none of this is moving the needle probably.

They just gotta go for it in some capacity. Even if it doesn't work, try. It's been 5 years.

I don't necessarily have a problem with getting rid of guys.....but there's gotta be a corresponding push somewhere else. They dump people for nothing, and then just.....nothing else. There's no other move after. So now you've lost that guy, AND have nothing else coming in.

----

As I've said elsewhere, I commend you for your trade permutations, but I have 0 hope that they're willing to get remotely close to even a 100M payroll. They don't seem to want to budge beyond last year's 80M based on how they've done nothing.

[lou]

I don't necessarily have a problem with getting rid of guys.....but there's gotta be a corresponding push somewhere else. They dump people for nothing, and then just.....nothing else. There's no other move after. So now you've lost that guy, AND have nothing else coming in.

----

As I've said elsewhere, I commend you for your trade permutations, but I have 0 hope that they're willing to get remotely close to even a 100M payroll. They don't seem to want to budge beyond last year's 80M based on how they've done nothing.

It's basically expending the time I would commit to the team, you know watching them, now as I'll just shut off as there is no way I can watch this product when I can't justify they have any semblance of a plan.

The only, and I mean only, thing I can think of that makes rational sense of doing nothing is they accept 2023 is a lost year and they feel the mega-keep-everyone pitching staff in 2024 will just blitz everyone. So kick the can, move the goal post, and no one likes us anyways so what's another down year to Bruce? TBH, if they just admit this they are circling 2024 I'll have higher confidence with them doing nothing. Honesty works as let's face it, it's a hard climb in this devision today.


So, I am interested in this in 2024 if we're just throwing in the towel for 2023 and keeping EVERY pitcher.

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Rogers < ---- As many innings as they can throw
Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Eder < ----- All 2 time through lineup bulk relievers, 110+ innings each. Max effort
Meyer, Bender, Sixto <--- Right handed bullpen. Swap in Fulton for Sixto if anyone wants and move to lefty column
Scott, Okert < --- Lefty relievers

Basically, make it a 6 man rotation but Sandy is always going every 5 days. Everyone else shifts for him, which lets be real, Fish16 is right Pablo has injury concerns so get him some extra rest the entire year (i.e. a 26+ game starter which honestly is a lot), we have pitch/mix high volatility in Luzardo so he should be skipped a few times as he likely always maxes as a 150 IP guy, Rogers isn't proven yet but he could handle a load if he fully works out, and the other 4 guys are all 110+ IP guys early in their career. They can go real max effort. Something like:

Sandy
Pablo
Luzardo
Cabrera/Eder <-- Garrett/Eury 1 inning throw day
Rogers
-
Sandy (Full Rest)
Garrett/Eury (Full Rest)
Pablo (+1 Rest)
Luzardo (+1 Rest) <-- Rogers 1 inning throw day
Cabrera/Eder (+1 Rest)
-
Sandy (Full Rest)
Rogers (+2 Rest)
Garrett/Eury (+1 Rest)
Pablo (+1 Rest) <-- Cabrera/Eder 1 inning throw day
Luzardo (+1 Rest)
-
Sandy (Full Rest)
Cabrera/Eder (+2 Rest)
Rogers (+1 Rest)
Garrett/Eury (+1 Rest) <-- Luzardo 1 inning throw day
Pablo (+1 Rest)
-
Sandy (Full Rest)
Luzardo (+2 Rest)
Cabrera/Eder (+1 Rest)
Rogers (+1 Rest)
Garrett/Eury (+1 Rest)
-
Cycle Restarts x6 times through the year and figure out the last 12 games of the season when you get there. Everyone should be fresh. If anyone gets hurt, you can shuffle and just have someone have a solo day of the 4 bulk guys and bring up some help (Fulton? Sixto?). Everyone is stretched out.

Also to mention, this is assuming no off/travel days so a lot of those days will really be 1-2 days more of rest and this team will be FRESH. Hence those throw days in there where one time through the 25 game cycle, you're going to be able to steal an inning out of some of those guys to help the bullpen which will add over the course of the year into 30+ innings which is really a lot if you think about it. It keeps all of their arms going also if there happens to be an 8 day layoff somewhere (which there might be without a throw day hence why those are kind of actually important to get 25 pitches out of some of those guys). Sandy and the two double SP days is going to vaporize bullpen use, as it's not like Pablo isn't going to throw a consistent 6 here. The team is going to be FRESH.

This trends for
Sandy 32 starts
Everyone else gets 26 "starts", plus over the season you can get 5+ innings of work out of each of Luzardo/Cabrera/Eder/Rogers/Garret/Eury. Only Pablo stays off this plan.

You can easily see here

Sandy - 210 IP
Pablo - 160 IP
Luzardo and Rogers - 145 IP each
Cabrera/Eder/Eury/Garrett - 110 IP each
Top 8 SP = 1,100 Innings

Remaining Bullpen = 340 innings... which is a 68 IP average for 5 roster spots which is very doable for Meyer/Scott/Okert/Bender/Sixto. Notably here,150 innings are MOP UP and irrelevant here so Meyer turning into a stud reliever, Scott/Okert hitting their statcast projections, and Sixto/Bender/whoever turning into a high leverage option makes this staff absolutely killer top to bottom.

That pitching plan is *fucking awesome* if this is the idea.


Yes, I have no idea how they will hit without spending $$$, but that is a championship staff to me and maybe they want to start there? To note, Houston is going to a 6 man rotation so some teams are trending in this direction. This is just a super charged version of it and not just thinking outside the box.


Also let's be real here, you can trade Pablo and sign a SP here to replace him to do this same plan (as you could also scale up the 4 bulk guys 10-20 innings each probably pretty quickly), as well as trade Meyer as a SP to some team and get a reliever to replace him. Basically, you can do this plan, replace Pablo and Meyer's innings pretty easily over some usage tweaks and another guy or two, and you now have two SP to trade for bats + money. There are options here. If they ever choose to do SOMETHING.

TBH, I love this pitching plan for 2024 and I will accept a terrible 2023 if something like this is the idea. This would be inspiring and Uncle Steve won't know what hit him.

[rmc523]

I'm just tired of this "circle next year" mentality they have every year.

[lou]

I'm just tired of this "circle next year" mentality they have every year.

Absolutely, which is why they need to do things now, but as said, I think the keep everyone pitching staff could be extremely interesting and absent Pablo, there is *a lot* of club control to really do that plan for years and years. We'll see. I imagine something is coming as they can't do nothing.

[sports24/7]

I'm just tired of this "circle next year" mentality they have every year.

That can't be the line this year. It just can't. Mostly because enough is enough with adding a year to the plan. Fans should absolutely not give this team any attention or money if they're not trying to compete this year. But also, you have a window with your pitching staff, and before you have to pay Jazz. Kicking the can down the road will just lead to depreciation of assets, and eventually selling your best players, and probably getting cents on the dollar like they have on most of their trades. Fuck that.

[rmc523]

Absolutely, which is why they need to do things now, but as said, I think the keep everyone pitching staff could be extremely interesting and absent Pablo, there is *a lot* of club control to really do that plan for years and years. We'll see. I imagine something is coming as they can't do nothing.

I know you're agreeing, but I'm venting....

I don't care about an "extremely interesting" pitching staff next year. It's been 5 years of "just wait, you'll see". The waiting period is over. They've already let so many easy "spend-only" (not using trade assets) opportunities to improve the team pass by. Now the only option is to have to dip into the farm to improve the team, and they've shown a complete unwillingness to do that. It's pathetic.

[rmc523]

That can't be the line this year. It just can't. Mostly because enough is enough with adding a year to the plan. Fans should absolutely not give this team any attention or money if they're not trying to compete this year. But also, you have a window with your pitching staff, and before you have to pay Jazz. Kicking the can down the road will just lead to depreciation of assets, and eventually selling your best players, and probably getting cents on the dollar like they have on most of their trades. Fuck that.

150%

Soon the great pitching core you have will also be gone because you've wasted the prime years of it by not even bothering to try.

[lou]

150%

Soon the great pitching core you have will also be gone because you've wasted the prime years of it by not even bothering to try.

Yes.

So you trade for Jansen, Varsho, and Rosario, and sign Rodon *or* sign Turner/another Stop gap SP/a RHP reliever and play with a $120m payroll and the team is really nice on paper. With no longterm liabilities (unless you did splurge on Rodon) and the farm is still deep enough.

Shouldn't be a lot to ask for after 5 years of NOTHING and during this time they got naming rights, TV deal, etc. so they can't cry they are that poor. With the knowledge if you suck trade deadline 2025, blow it the fuck up and try again in 2027 after a quick reset. So aggravating.

[lou]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-...ong-contracts/

A simply fantastic article on why these mega deals are happening and why they are not stupid and overpriced.

[rmc523]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-...ong-contracts/

A simply fantastic article on why these mega deals are happening and why they are not stupid and overpriced.

TLDR version:

Future money is worth less than present money.

[lou]

TLDR version:

Future money is worth less than present money.

And add only the rich owners can leverage this as Bruce doesn't have the money to set aside $250k now to offset a 13/$350 deal like ownership groups worth 5-10x more