2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Im aware you where you get your projections. Do you ever take any inventory on how off they are every single year? All of your projections are based on something that is consistently wrong. Perhaps stop blindly following projections and look at actual stats and project forward yourself. I would be surprised if groshans had a positive war next year. Same with Leblanc to a lesser extent. And given how much you overhype berti, you can get ready for him to have a year that doesnt meet your expectations either.

Perhaps you should give credibility to professionals in their field of work and not be a message board warrior thinking you are better at this than them? I reiterate, going from an 88 win projection cheerleader and Brinson is going to work out, to the sky is falling and let's play 2B at 1B because things are so bad it's still an upgrade so who cares are equally bad takes.

My expectation for Berti is he is a 1.5-2 WAR player, which is below his career pace and 2022 production. Is this overhyping him to be a very low end starter or good bench player? Do you know what actual stats are or are just interesting in being angry?

[lou]

That's not an absurd price for haniger. He's been a really good hitter every year of his career. He has a career OPS+ of 123 in a bad hitters ballpark.

Reynolds price will certainly be lower than the ridiculous haul they were asking for last year, which was my main contention the entire time, not that he was a bad player, just that they were treating him like Juan soto. He's coming off a year that was a full 3.2 WAR less than 2021 according to the holy god of fangraphs, and his defense was significantly worse than 2021 in Center. And he has a year less of team control. The free agent contracts are out of control every year. He still isnt cheap, but he is of course less valuable this offseason compared to last.

It's an absurd price for ages 32-34 of Haniger.

And free agent contracts have taken a radical step up this year, so it's a regime change happening. He's not going to be cheaper. Just as Pablo is not cheaper than the deadline which you haven't figured out yet. Pablo is going to be 2/$15-17m the next two seasons and lesser pitchers in Taillon and Walker are getting "SEVENTY" million dollars over 4 years. The Marlins pitching has all gotten more valuable since July 31, which is an unintended silver lining from all of this. We shall see what they do.

[fish16]

Perhaps you should give credibility to professionals in their field of work and not be a message board warrior thinking you are better at this than them? I reiterate, going from an 88 win projection cheerleader and Brinson is going to work out, to the sky is falling and let's play 2B at 1B because things are so bad it's still an upgrade so who cares are equally bad takes.

My expectation for Berti is he is a 1.5-2 WAR player, which is below his career pace and 2022 production. Is this overhyping him to be a very low end starter or good bench player? Do you know what actual stats are or are just interesting in being angry?

doing it for a living doesnt make them infallible or immune from criticism.. Go look at the projections and what they actually do and get back to me. It could be why youre consistently wrong about projections, such as a guy whose value is entirely defense and cant hit his way out of a wet paper bag like stallings being written down for 3 WAR last year when it was clear he is a defensive backup C who has no business starting.

And i do know that berti's entire value is defensive and speed based, with the former being notoriously unreliable in the measurement and weighting for WAR. He is a good bench player, stop trying to make him out to be a starter on any kind of good team. Groshans being written down for .8 WAR is laughable. He's going to be bad next year. maybe he has a future, but he will not be a quality player on the big league team next year. And leblanc is a fringe roster player. Again, there is potential and he showed some ability with the bat, but your WAR projections are consistently ridiculous and you take 0 inventory of it after the fact.

[fish16]

It's an absurd price for ages 32-34 of Haniger.

And free agent contracts have taken a radical step up this year, so it's a regime change happening. He's not going to be cheaper. Just as Pablo is not cheaper than the deadline which you haven't figured out yet. Pablo is going to be 2/$15-17m the next two seasons and lesser pitchers in Taillon and Walker are getting "SEVENTY" million dollars over 4 years. The Marlins pitching has all gotten more valuable since July 31, which is an unintended silver lining from all of this. We shall see what they do.

It's not an absurd price. He's 32, not 37. His WRC+ by year for the last 5 years, including 2 injury plagued season, 1 by a ruptured testicle- 129, 137, 107 (ruptured testicle year), 121, 113 (only played 57 games). He's a terrific and consistent hitter when healthy. Those numbers are even with extremely low BABIPS for each of the last 3 years (.257, .281, .293) and being in a bad hitters ballpark. So as long as he wears a cup, he's worth that money in free agency. That's why you dont build through the middle tier of free agency unless you need a piece to put you over the top. It's not an efficient use of money for small market teams but you get worthwhile pieces when youre a team that isnt afraid to spend money.

Pablo also is less valuable than at the deadline. He's .5 a year closer to free agency and he was mediocre after may. 5.34 ERA in June, 4.65 in july, 4.61 in August, and 5.33 in September. In the 2nd half of the year, he threw 76 innings and had an ERA just south of 5.

Free agent contracts havent taken a radical step up, theres more stars available this year. Last year, Seager got 32.5 million for 10 years, Bryant got 26 million for 7 years, Semien got 25 for 7 years, Story and Baez got 23 for 6 years, Stroman got 23 million for 3 years.

[Nick]

Pretty clear we're not going to do jack shit. Sign Justin Turner to a two-year deal and be shocked when that doesn't propel us to a 25-win improvement from 2022.

[fish16]

Pretty clear we're not going to do jack shit. Sign Justin Turner to a two-year deal and be shocked when that doesn't propel us to a 25-win improvement from 2022.

Yup, i'd like the turner signing but if that's the "big" deal they make sherman is done as an owner and im done following this team closely. They will cheap out yet again and gaslight the fanbase about how they think the improvements will come from within and thats why they dont need to have anything better than the 28th payroll in baseball.

[lou]

doing it for a living doesnt make them infallible or immune from criticism.. Go look at the projections and what they actually do and get back to me. It could be why youre consistently wrong about projections, such as a guy whose value is entirely defense and cant hit his way out of a wet paper bag like stallings being written down for 3 WAR last year when it was clear he is a defensive backup C who has no business starting.

And i do know that berti's entire value is defensive and speed based, with the former being notoriously unreliable in the measurement and weighting for WAR. He is a good bench player, stop trying to make him out to be a starter on any kind of good team. Groshans being written down for .8 WAR is laughable. He's going to be bad next year. maybe he has a future, but he will not be a quality player on the big league team next year. And leblanc is a fringe roster player. Again, there is potential and he showed some ability with the bat, but your WAR projections are consistently ridiculous and you take 0 inventory of it after the fact.

They have 2022:

LAD 63.5 WAR
HOU 56.5 WAR
NYY 54.8 WAR
ATL 51.6 WAR
NYM 51.6 WR

Nola 6.3 WAR
Rodon 6.2 WAR
Verlander 6.1 WAR
Sandy 5.7 WAR

Judge 11.4 WAR(!)
Machado 7.4 WAR
Arenado 7.3 WAR
Goldschmidt 7.1 WAR
Freddie 7.1 WAR

Do we sense a pattern here that maybe fWAR correlates into being awesome? Or was this just a mistake they made with everyone?

Are you a fan of Jorge Cantu's 2009 season with the Marlins where he hit .289/.345/.443 with a 7% BB/12% K rate and 100 RBIs?

[Namaste]

doing it for a living doesnt make them infallible or immune from criticism.. Go look at the projections and what they actually do and get back to me. It could be why youre consistently wrong about projections, such as a guy whose value is entirely defense and cant hit his way out of a wet paper bag like stallings being written down for 3 WAR last year when it was clear he is a defensive backup C who has no business starting.
.

Stallings had a 2.5 WAR in 2021. Were the Marlins to assume he had no business being a starting catcher? What valuation have you created that MLB teams should start using?

[lou]

It's not an absurd price. He's 32, not 37. His WRC+ by year for the last 5 years, including 2 injury plagued season, 1 by a ruptured testicle- 129, 137, 107 (ruptured testicle year), 121, 113 (only played 57 games). He's a terrific and consistent hitter when healthy. Those numbers are even with extremely low BABIPS for each of the last 3 years (.257, .281, .293) and being in a bad hitters ballpark. So as long as he wears a cup, he's worth that money in free agency. That's why you dont build through the middle tier of free agency unless you need a piece to put you over the top. It's not an efficient use of money for small market teams but you get worthwhile pieces when youre a team that isnt afraid to spend money.

Pablo also is less valuable than at the deadline. He's .5 a year closer to free agency and he was mediocre after may. 5.34 ERA in June, 4.65 in july, 4.61 in August, and 5.33 in September. In the 2nd half of the year, he threw 76 innings and had an ERA just south of 5.

Free agent contracts havent taken a radical step up, theres more stars available this year. Last year, Seager got 32.5 million for 10 years, Bryant got 26 million for 7 years, Semien got 25 for 7 years, Story and Baez got 23 for 6 years, Stroman got 23 million for 3 years.

And Pablo showed he can throw a full season negating some injury concerns and is even more valuable with escalated contracts that are *much* more than last year. My dude, read the room and transactions page. Pablo (and Reynolds) and all this cheap low arbitration guys are worth a FORTUNE in a world Taillon is getting $70 million and ordinary relievers $8m deals with the top ones $20m.

I prefer 88 win insane fish16 instead of angry irrational fish16 who has just been beaten down by the Marlins suckitude. I am telling you - split the difference and this is where they are. A high 70s win team that needs to add 8+ wins, ideally more.

[rmc523]

Ng said the Marlins were in on Bellinger and Bell, lol. I previously said I get coming up short on FA, but at some point you have to land one.

Yeah right. We could be "in on" everyone if we offered $1. This tells me our offers weren't close, which is unsurprising.

[sports24/7]

Why on Earth would the Marlins even be interested in Bellinger and Bell? (or Turner for that matter.) I reiiiiiiiiiterate: the only ticket north in the future is a huge move ... Alcantara to Dodgers! Trading any of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Perez, Eder, Fulton would be nuts at this time. With the exception of Rogers, all the others will grow hugely in value if they merely match last year's level of performance. I don't know why they shouldn't do just that. I also believe that Rogers can rediscover his control, Remember: CF, 3B, SS or 2B, 1B, C and a corner OF are all huge needs.

I can tell you, but you're not going to like the answer. Let's start off by once again stating the obvious that they aren't trading Sandy. They just aren't. It's not even worth talking about. And if they somehow were, it certainly wouldn't be to the Dodgers for a package of prospects. It would have to be a package of young, but established stud hitters. You'd need to be getting like an Acuna-type if you're trading arguably the best pitcher in baseball, just entering his prime, on a cheap contract.

The reality is the Marlins are forced to operate as Garcia and Soler will take a step forward and perform closer to their contracts this year. They cannot afford another rebuild from a PR standpoint, and yet they have to compete in arguably the best division in baseball where the teams around them just continue to add good players, but have to do that without having the ability to throw the same kind of money around. How do you do that? You take chances that a guy like Bellinger regains his form at the plate, while also providing great defense in your weakest/most important spot. You try and add a productive bat in Bell that won't break the bank, but could give you all-star play at a position of need. These are absolutely the type of moves the Marlins are going to have to make right now, in addition to trading pitching depth and prospects for more help in the lineup.

[rmc523]

Judge gets 9 years/$360 from Yankees

Apparently the Padres offered him 10/400.

Crazy the number they're offering over the last few years.....must be nice to have a team that's willing to spend.

[rmc523]

Pretty clear we're not going to do jack shit. Sign Justin Turner to a two-year deal and be shocked when that doesn't propel us to a 25-win improvement from 2022.

I agree that's likely what we'll end up with. And they probably still won't address the team's actual holes.


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Also this fish/lou back and forth for 15 pages over some random guy is very exciting.....not lol.


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Additionally, we've added John Mabry as assistant hitting coach.

[sports24/7]

I'm actually curious about the "why" on the Marlins not landing these players. The Occam's Razor answer is the Marlins offers just weren't competitive, and that could very well be the case. But also, there have been reports that players just don't have much interest in playing for Miami (which makes sense), and that's why they had to overpay for the Garcia's and Soler's of the world. The biggest issue, though, might be the GM doesn't appear to be a closer. A good GM doesn't let those first two things prevent them from making moves, even if it limits them somewhat.

I'm willing to let it play out. There are still a lot of avenues to improve this team greatly. But if they don't do that, I don't see how you can reasonably move forward with this GM, regardless of how bad the PR hit will be firing her.

[rmc523]

I'm actually curious about the "why" on the Marlins not landing these players. The Occam's Razor answer is the Marlins offers just weren't competitive, and that could very well be the case. But also, there have been reports that players just don't have much interest in playing for Miami (which makes sense), and that's why they had to overpay for the Garcia's and Soler's of the world. The biggest issue, though, might be the GM doesn't appear to be a closer. A good GM doesn't let those first two things prevent them from making moves, even if it limits them somewhat.

I'm willing to let it play out. There are still a lot of avenues to improve this team greatly. But if they don't do that, I don't see how you can reasonably move forward with this GM, regardless of how bad the PR hit will be firing her.

Likely a combo of:

1) uncompetitive offers - if the offer is below others, money talks, a guy is going to sign somewhere else for more, especially if the other team is a contender
2) Too far from contention as-is - right now, we're the same team as last year that lost 90+ games, why would a player want to come here after a below market offer?
3) Losing clown show over the last 10-15 years - as mentioned in point #2, we've been terrible for 10-15 years now. Unless a guy is stuck without a team, he won't want to come here.
4) History of not keeping players - Under Loria, we rarely kept anyone beyond the first year. Guys are probably hesitant to sign a big deal here, which is why we need to reverse point #1
5) Not even trying - last year they did the bare minimum and it ended up sucking, even though everyone but the FO saw that.

They need to make some big trades AND offer a Werth contract by being above the market to show the league - players and teams - that we actually mean business and aren't just dicking around treading water.

To your point, and using Marte as an example, Kim seems to start her negotiations WAY too low and stays too low until it's too late. In Marte's case our final offer ended up being close-ish to the final contract with the Mets......whereas if we were closer to our "final" offer to begin with, it may have gotten the deal done early, as he actually DID want to be here. I'm sure that same scenario happens with all her negotiations.