2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Right now the mets have 3 players under contract this year whose salary is about 80 million more than our entire team right now (Verlander, Scherzer, Lindor). That's before calculating team control figures and arbitration numbers, so just about 1/8th of the mets team is going to make more than our entire roster before anymore signings.

To be fair, those 3 are probably around $115-120m, and the Marlins running it back adding no one is probably $80m.

So they could sign Correa and Kiermaier as potential FA options and *still* be under. That's the joke here.

[rmc523]

I'm sorry, I'm not going to give Loria points for extending guys when every single guy he extended was gone within 2-3 years anyway.

Agreed. But at this point, I'd rather have some slight bit of a tease of hope that this is going somewhere, instead of the seemingly endless cycle of "we tried" without them actually doing anything.

[Namaste]

Well we can cross one dream SS off of our list; Trea Turner to the Phillies. 11 year deal.

[lou]

Well we can cross one dream SS off of our list; Trea Turner to the Phillies. 11 year deal.

Honestly good. Let the three of them keep spending insane money, hopefully Swanson back to Braves is next and Mets sign Nimmo on top of all of this.

Force Bruce to become a real boy and sign Correa or throw up hands he is too poor to spend below average so sell the franchise.

[sports24/7]

The level of frenzy that occurred yesterday on Marlins Twitter because Reynolds requested a trade was funny.

You would have thought the Marlins were in the final stages of inking a deal with him.

Nothing to see here in my opinion.

I don’t know that he ends up in Miami, but I respectfully disagree about it being nothing to see here. The Marlins want him badly, and have been pretty far down the road on talks for him multiple times. The Marlins have the ammo to get him in almost any way the Pirates want to go. I think the two biggest factors will be how far is Miami willing to go (it shouldn’t be unreasonable but they’ll have to give up some non-Eury premium prospects), and how interested is Reynolds in signing longterm in Miami (because that would have to be part of the deal).

[lou]

I don’t know that he ends up in Miami, but I respectfully disagree about it being nothing to see here. The Marlins want him badly, and have been pretty far down the road on talks for him multiple times. The Marlins have the ammo to get him in almost any way the Pirates want to go. I think the two biggest factors will be how far is Miami willing to go (it shouldn’t be unreasonable but they’ll have to give up some non-Eury premium prospects), and how interested is Reynolds in signing longterm in Miami (because that would have to be part of the deal).

I've done the surplus value math:

Reynolds alone and it's close to a straight up with Rogers and Salas/Cappe/Meyer/Eder. Basically whoever the Pirates consider a FV50 prospect. Prevailing wisdom says Salas. Rogers has another year of control and is going to be cheaper than Reynolds which is the difference. If anything, we're talking about throw-ins outside top 15-20 after this, or maybe they just include someone a bit better than that like Burdick. Alternatively, if Rogers is a no-go, it becomes an extremely Yelich like aggressive package - Berry, Meyer, Salas/Cappe, and Fulton/Miller/I. Lewis sort of thing. I think you go with the Rogers package here all things considered.

This is why I think you add Bedner and Brubaker. Pirates don't need a fancy reliever non-contending and Brubaker is a 4th SP at best and they don't care. Get them both Rogers and Salas for the top-end OOMPH, and then an assortment of prospects - maybe Eder/Fulton/Miller/Lewis (a really nice third player), Sanchez/Bleday, Burdick/Jerar, and a RP prospect. That math works out too and maybe have it be two RP prospects and add Simpson/Reynolds/Nardi as a lefty.

A lot of permutations here, but it adds up well. The issue then becomes, still need a platoon side CF at minimum but hey, Reynolds is GOOD so worry about that tomorrow.

[fish16]

gonna be super fun to watch the 2 teams way ahead of us already add the 2 best FA's available arguably while we dont spend any money and Ng and Sherman try to gaslight the fanbase in spring training about how good they think this team is.

[fish16]

I've done the surplus value math:

Reynolds alone and it's close to a straight up with Rogers and Salas/Cappe/Meyer/Eder. Basically whoever the Pirates consider a FV50 prospect. Prevailing wisdom says Salas. Rogers has another year of control and is going to be cheaper than Reynolds which is the difference. If anything, we're talking about throw-ins outside top 15-20 after this, or maybe they just include someone a bit better than that like Burdick. Alternatively, if Rogers is a no-go, it becomes an extremely Yelich like aggressive package - Berry, Meyer, Salas/Cappe, and Fulton/Miller/I. Lewis sort of thing. I think you go with the Rogers package here all things considered.

This is why I think you add Bedner and Brubaker. Pirates don't need a fancy reliever non-contending and Brubaker is a 4th SP at best and they don't care. Get them both Rogers and Salas for the top-end OOMPH, and then an assortment of prospects - maybe Eder/Fulton/Miller/Lewis (a really nice third player), Sanchez/Bleday, Burdick/Jerar, and a RP prospect. That math works out too and maybe have it be two RP prospects and add Simpson/Reynolds/Nardi as a lefty.

A lot of permutations here, but it adds up well. The issue then becomes, still need a platoon side CF at minimum but hey, Reynolds is GOOD so worry about that tomorrow.

If Rogers is the front guy for a Reynolds trade im all for it. That should keep the remaining prospects in the deal much more relatively minor (no eury, luzardo, and cabrera). Rogers would suck to lose but they have enough pitching under team control and you have to get the bat somehow. A good team would trade for him and sign a guy like Bogaerts, and that would legitimately put us in contention, but lets cross that bridge if we get there. And id add a ton more depth if we could get bednar as well. Rogers, Salas/Cappe, Dax, Watson, and a super low level guy for Reynolds and Bednar. Might not be enough, but that's a deal i make 10/10 times with rogers struggles last year and with how much other pitching we have.

[fish16]

I mean he is good, but they have this player in Berti already and you'd be trading major assets for a guy whose best position is 2B. He is a bad 3B and would never play there, so then we're considering him.... the longterm 1B or LF? I don't see this as a fit unless Jazz was then moved for an absolute ton and that doesn't make sense ether. Or, maybe they wow us and say Jazz is a defensive SS or CF and jokes on us they have this solved internally (so we can then bitch why didn't that happen earlier). Nice player, but this one is tough.

come on man stop trying to make berti some stud, or at the very least dont compare him to a guy like Arraez who is a legitimate star who just won the fucking batting title . Berti's a utility player with speed. He's a nice bench guy, but if he's starting you have a shit team. Arraez is for his career a 120 WRC+. Berti is a 95. Last year Arraez was 131, Berti was 93. Id consider him the long term 1b or long term DH if they dont want to move jazz. They need great hitters, Arraez is a great hitter under control for 3 more years. They are not in a position to bitch about position when we have 1 quality hitter in our entire lineup right now.

Accrording to fangraphs, Arraez is at 7.1 WAR in his 4 year career. He was top 11 in all of baseball in OBP, 4th in baseball and 1st in the AL in BA, 30th in baseball in WRC+. He is one of the best hitters in baseball. Depending on price, you go get that guy and slot him in wherever the hell he fits when you have the lineup we do.

[lou]

If Rogers is the front guy for a Reynolds trade im all for it. That should keep the remaining prospects in the deal much more relatively minor (no eury, luzardo, and cabrera). Rogers would suck to lose but they have enough pitching under team control and you have to get the bat somehow. A good team would trade for him and sign a guy like Bogaerts, and that would legitimately put us in contention, but lets cross that bridge if we get there. And id add a ton more depth if we could get bednar as well. Rogers, Salas/Cappe, Dax, Watson, and a super low level guy for Reynolds and Bednar. Might not be enough, but that's a deal i make 10/10 times with rogers struggles last year and with how much other pitching we have.

that would beyond get it done

[lou]

come on man stop trying to make berti some stud, or at the very least dont compare him to a guy like Arraez who is a legitimate star who just won the fucking batting title . Berti's a utility player with speed. He's a nice bench guy, but if he's starting you have a shit team. Arraez is for his career a 120 WRC+. Berti is a 95. Last year Arraez was 131, Berti was 93. Id consider him the long term 1b or long term DH if they dont want to move jazz. They need great hitters, Arraez is a great hitter under control for 3 more years. They are not in a position to bitch about position when we have 1 quality hitter in our entire lineup right now.

Accrording to fangraphs, Arraez is at 7.1 WAR in his 4 year career. He was top 11 in all of baseball in OBP, 4th in baseball and 1st in the AL in BA, 30th in baseball in WRC+. He is one of the best hitters in baseball. Depending on price, you go get that guy and slot him in wherever the hell he fits when you have the lineup we do.

Arraez had a 3.1 war last year in 603 PA. Berti has 2.3 in 404 PA. Scale that to 603 PA and Berti played at a 3.4 WAR pace last year. Berti was better than Arraez last year.

Arraez in 2021 had a 1.6 WAR in 479 PA BTW. Berti is projected in 2023 to have a 1.6 WR in 469 PA right now. These are generally similar players and Arraez had a very good average year in 2022.


Look, Arraez is better as he is MUCH younger. No one is saying Berti is a stud. You are manufacturing that. Berti is a very good bench player, or likely low end starter at 2B/3B given lack of MLB depth. Selling the Marlins core assets for Arraez to play 1B of LF is crazy. That's my position here. Saying he is a longterm 1B/LF is insane. The guy has no power. You need some THUMP. He's a good player though and I would like him very much if the Marlins did not have Jazz. However, maybe if they sign Correa (thump) and get a CF upgrade who can hit (Reynolds even in a platoon), maybe a low power longterm 1B could make sense. I do believe production is production end of the day even if unusual. That being said, let's play guys mostly at their best position and Jazz exists.

Just like stop already. Berti is fine for who he is and the Marlins don't need to replace or upgrade him. Maybe he falls apart, everyone does, but nothing suggests he can't have a .650 OPS, run wild (new bases), and play some good defense. He's fine for who he is. Let's not fit circles in square holes just because Arraez is good.

SS and CF first. Or have them convince us Jazz can do one of those and sure get Arraez tomorrow.

[fish16]

ESPN has arraez at 4.4 WAR last year, Berti at 2.5. The year before they had Arraez at 3.4, Berti at .5. So no, its not nearly as close as you want to make it out to be based on berti's speed and defense. Which is a wild swing from what fangraphs has which is a good indication we probably shouldnt be taking WAR as the end all be all. Worrying about the position they play instead of the production they provide is just dumb. If Arraez gives you elite 2b production while playing 1b and jazz gives you elite 1b production while playing 2nd, who the fuck cares. Get the best players when you have a single long term position player you can feasibly count on moving forward in your entire lineup. Worrying about the position arraez plays when he is flat out one of the best hitters in the league is nonsensical. He plays 1b, 2b, 3b, and lf in his career. If he's one of the best bats in baseball, under team control for several more years, and you can acquire him for pitching depth, you do it.

Also, this talk about the lineup needing thump is great except for the fact that Arraez would have had the 3rd highest slugging percentage on the team last year behind Jazz and DLC. He might not hit 30 bombs, but 8 HR's and 31 2b's for a .420 slugging percentage is enough from any position when you combine his hit tool. We're not talking about Dee gordon or juan pierre power here

[fish16]

Baseball reference has Arraez at 4.4 WAR last year and 3.4 the year before. Berti at 2.5 and .5 the year before. This is not a minor upgrade. The 2 arent remotely close. One's an all star, the other is a super utility guy.

[lou]

ESPN has arraez at 4.4 WAR last year, Berti at 2.5. The year before they had Arraez at 3.4, Berti at .5. So no, its not nearly as close as you want to make it out to be based on berti's speed and defense. Which is a wild swing from what fangraphs has which is a good indication we probably shouldnt be taking WAR as the end all be all. Worrying about the position they play instead of the production they provide is just dumb. If Arraez gives you elite 2b production while playing 1b and jazz gives you elite 1b production while playing 2nd, who the fuck cares. Get the best players when you have a single long term position player you can feasibly count on moving forward in your entire lineup. Worrying about the position arraez plays when he is flat out one of the best hitters in the league is nonsensical. He plays 1b, 2b, 3b, and lf in his career. If he's one of the best bats in baseball, under team control for several more years, and you can acquire him for pitching depth, you do it.

Also, this talk about the lineup needing thump is great except for the fact that Arraez would have had the 3rd highest slugging percentage on the team last year behind Jazz and DLC. He might not hit 30 bombs, but 8 HR's and 31 2b's for a .420 slugging percentage is enough from any position when you combine his hit tool. We're not talking about Dee gordon or juan pierre power here

Or just look at better resources with Fangraphs. And Arraez is nowhere near one of the best hitters in the league. Please.

Let's not trade the best or second best assets we have for a 2B we would then play at 1B because Jazz is better. OK? Thanks

[fish16]

Or just look at better resources with Fangraphs. And Arraez is nowhere near one of the best hitters in the league. Please.

Let's not trade the best or second best assets we have for a 2B we would then play at 1B because Jazz is better. OK? Thanks

In the last 2 years he's started 66 games at 2b and 171 at other positions. And he is one of the best hitters in baseball. As evidenced by winning the batting title, even though that is a little outdated of a stat, but no one hits .316 anymore with more walks than strike outs while still putting up close to a .800 OPS. he is absolutely one of the best pure hitters in baseball. and he'd honestly be perfect for this ballpark.