2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Marlins To Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach - MLB Trade Rumors

We hired Brant Brown as our hitting coach.

[fish16]

No thanks.

We don't need to handicap ourselves with another DH/1B logjam. Not to mention, with our luck, he'd come here and forget how to hit like everyone else. If it were in conjunction with several other moves that cleared the logjam and upgraded other areas of the roster simultaneously, maybe. But as-is by itself, no.

is it a log jam or is it depth when 2 of the 3 options are consistently injured. they are already worried about Soler's back to the point where they dont plan on playing him in the field much if at all next year, and cooper has a ball magnet in his hand/wrist and is never healthy. Id consider it quality depth more than a log jam. If soler or cooper get hurt next year, who are the backup options at 1b/DH?

Not that it matters anymore, a real team in the astros actually opened up the wallet.

[lou]

Abreu is off the board. No details on the money yet, but a 3-year deal with Houston.

Looks like 3/$60

And Clevinger deal was reported wrong earlier and looks like 1/$12.


Quite frankly, legitimate starter and mediocre 1 year rehab assignment deals are extremely expensive in Marlins terms. Baseball has a real problem as even the middle spending teams that outspend the Marlins by double(!) aren't going to compete with the top 8-12 spenders soon. This is going to become a college football playoff scenario where only 6-7 teams compete, and when one of the little guys somehow makes it (Cincinatti Bearcats), it gets ugly fast

[lou]

is it a log jam or is it depth when 2 of the 3 options are consistently injured. they are already worried about Soler's back to the point where they dont plan on playing him in the field much if at all next year, and cooper has a ball magnet in his hand/wrist and is never healthy. Id consider it quality depth more than a log jam. If soler or cooper get hurt next year, who are the backup options at 1b/DH?

Not that it matters anymore, a real team in the astros actually opened up the wallet.

So we want to spend the whole budget to create platoons and not use the main assets to get positions of need? Sure if this is $125m+ spending land, but is Bruce going to spend $90m?

TBH its an Arizona CF in all scenarios (or Nimmo if they do get Peraza), then Correa if Bruce is a big boy, and Rosario if he is not, or blow the farm out for Peraza and pray he has a Gimenez level ascension quickly. Then get 1 year SP/RP to bridge the gap to younger arms. Anything less than that they are dead in the water as those plans above just barely make them fringe playoff contenders. A lot would need to go right even with bringing in all of that.

Baseball has real problems. I'll be interested to see where the 4 SS, Nimmo, Verlander, Rodon, etc. all land. I have a feeling it'll all be the name brand big boys and the rich get richer, while the sport competitive issues get wider. Hopefully I am wrong and Miami, Cleveland, and Minnesota land some big FA as all could be good with the right mix of talent.

[rmc523]

is it a log jam or is it depth when 2 of the 3 options are consistently injured. they are already worried about Soler's back to the point where they dont plan on playing him in the field much if at all next year, and cooper has a ball magnet in his hand/wrist and is never healthy. Id consider it quality depth more than a log jam. If soler or cooper get hurt next year, who are the backup options at 1b/DH?

Not that it matters anymore, a real team in the astros actually opened up the wallet.

I get your point, and don't necessarily disagree with that line of thinking if we were set elsewhere. But I'd rather fill the 100% black hole/voids.....you know, the same ones we had last offseason but didn't address.......before I worry about upgrading there.

[lou]

I get your point, and don't necessarily disagree with that line of thinking if we were set elsewhere. But I'd rather fill the 100% black hole/voids.....you know, the same ones we had last offseason but didn't address.......before I worry about upgrading there.

Miami Herald just had an article of Rojas talking with reporters and meeting with Skip. Mentioned everyone knows they sucked. To me, it sounded like the writing is on the wall no SS is coming and they are content with Rojas (on contract) and Wendle (arbitration).

Ergo, this is what they might do:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, _____
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Berti
DLC, Soler
______
Garcia
13th man - Sanchez/Bleday/Groshans/LeBlanc/Jerar/Burdick/Edwards as needed

Basically it's a 1B/OF cheap stick to help Cooper/DLC/Soler at 1B/LF, and they would actually have really nice depth of players 13-19 and they can mix and match them with who is hot/injuries. Article also mentioned they poked some interest at Santana but went nowhere suggesting they are looking for that 1B/LF type.

Then it's a CF. Something they have refused to do for forever at this point.

If they pull this off say, trading Rogers (also mentioned as highly coveted in the Herald article and he does make sense for A. Thomas in some deal), and then sign someone to replace innings, I can't see how this is a team that projects to 82 wins. They would need exceptional news at 5 position groups and not get another complete dud like Garcia.

What's the point of all of this at a bottom 3-4 payroll if this is the plan?

[rmc523]

Miami Herald just had an article of Rojas talking with reporters and meeting with Skip. Mentioned everyone knows they sucked. To me, it sounded like the writing is on the wall no SS is coming and they are content with Rojas (on contract) and Wendle (arbitration).

Ergo, this is what they might do:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, _____
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Berti
DLC, Soler
______
Garcia
13th man - Sanchez/Bleday/Groshans/LeBlanc/Jerar/Burdick/Edwards as needed

Basically it's a 1B/OF cheap stick to help Cooper/DLC/Soler at 1B/LF, and they would actually have really nice depth of players 13-19 and they can mix and match them with who is hot/injuries. Article also mentioned they poked some interest at Santana but went nowhere suggesting they are looking for that 1B/LF type.

Then it's a CF. Something they have refused to do for forever at this point.

If they pull this off say, trading Rogers (also mentioned as highly coveted in the Herald article and he does make sense for A. Thomas in some deal), and then sign someone to replace innings, I can't see how this is a team that projects to 82 wins. They would need exceptional news at 5 position groups and not get another complete dud like Garcia.

What's the point of all of this at a bottom 3-4 payroll if this is the plan?

Kim has been on the record many times saying the poor play was due to luck, and seemingly believing this team is ready to go as-is. I won't at all be surprised if they don't do much of anything. And if that's the case, I'll continue to be checked out and not follow except on the outskirts (i.e. no going to games, watching an inning or two here or there over the course of months, etc).
I'm not wasting my time and money on a product not worth watching.

[lou]

Kim has been on the record many times saying the poor play was due to luck, and seemingly believing this team is ready to go as-is. I won't at all be surprised if they don't do much of anything. And if that's the case, I'll continue to be checked out and not follow except on the outskirts (i.e. no going to games, watching an inning or two here or there over the course of months, etc).
I'm not wasting my time and money on a product not worth watching.

She isn't wrong about the luck (health), but that just gets them to high 70s wins. If their expectation is that alone can get them to high 80s wins without making some large changes, they are wrong. Nearly everyone would have to play to their best season of the last 3-4 years to crack into a top 6-10 offense.

[sports24/7]

From Mish:

”Marlins were in on Jose Abreu per sources. To what level I’m not completely clear but I’m fairly certain they were one of the teams he was considering. The good news from this is that it looks like the Marlins are prepared to add to the payroll again this offseason.“

If this is true, that’s incredibly encouraging to hear. If he was considering them, that would mean their offer was competitive. And if their offer was competitive, that’s a lot of money per year, they were willing to spend. It would be REALLY nice if plan B in FA was one of these SS. You can’t be looking at significantly more than $20M per season, even if it’s for a lot more than 3 years. And you can offset some of that by getting rid of some of the guys currently on the roster. I know this is probably a pipe dream, and this is setting us all up for more disappointment, but at the moment, it’s a glimmer of hope. If you can land a real SS, then trade for a real CF, you’re going a long way towards making this a real lineup.

[Namaste]

Miguel Rojas will be our starting SS this year guys c’mon we all know it.

[Lee Stone]

Miguel Rojas will be our starting SS this year guys c’mon we all know it.

That would not be good.

[lou]

From Mish:

”Marlins were in on Jose Abreu per sources. To what level I’m not completely clear but I’m fairly certain they were one of the teams he was considering. The good news from this is that it looks like the Marlins are prepared to add to the payroll again this offseason.“

If this is true, that’s incredibly encouraging to hear. If he was considering them, that would mean their offer was competitive. And if their offer was competitive, that’s a lot of money per year, they were willing to spend. It would be REALLY nice if plan B in FA was one of these SS. You can’t be looking at significantly more than $20M per season, even if it’s for a lot more than 3 years. And you can offset some of that by getting rid of some of the guys currently on the roster. I know this is probably a pipe dream, and this is setting us all up for more disappointment, but at the moment, it’s a glimmer of hope. If you can land a real SS, then trade for a real CF, you’re going a long way towards making this a real lineup.

If they were willing to spend $18-20m on Abreu, payroll expectations would be $90-95m (keeping Cooper, Pablo, one of Rojas/Wendle). Certainly there would be room to cut with just moving on from three of those guys (sheds $15m to get you back around $80-85 adding a club controlled CF and RP), and then stopgap cheap pitching may push that to $90m as they'd need to sign 150 innings minimum still.

So maybe we can glean $90m is the upper threshold here. That'll be tough for Correa. It would be a pipe dream at this payroll absent shedding a lot more money (Stallings, Berti, Floro, Scott, and Okert/Chargois, and replacing all with club-controlled players).

But you can *easily* fit Correa into $100m:

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper, LeBlanc
Jazz
Correa, Rojas
Berti
DLC, Sanchez
"Arizona CF"
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers
____, Floro, Chargois, Nance
Scott, Bleier, Okert, Castano

=Roughly $98m (and deferring say $4m of Correa to a decade out which is not unreasonable). They'll have to skimp on the last RP, but I think we'd all be OK with that and pray Correa and the Arizona CF are immense upgrades that help everyone, and Castano/Sixto can be legitimate 6/7th SP until the bigger names are ready midseason.

Wendle - traded for prospects
Pablo - traded for prospects
"Arizona CF" - traded with prospects, or Rogers is used and they turn Pablo/Wendle into a young controlled SP and wait for reinforcements

Even better if you get a 1 year 1B/OF type and kick Sanchez to AAA for now, and that helps Cooper and maybe LeBlanc is swapped for Groshans as it'll be a more stringent 3B platoon.


Basically, you can nickel and dime Correa into $100m, and especially $110m as they'd have room for legitimate stopgap SP/RP or 1B/OF as needed at that point. Which I don't understand why they won't do with Correa or whoever, as the team is very club-controlled for the next 2 years with contracts coming off the books so payroll won't raise in 24/25 from $100m, and in 2026, your major liabilities would only be Sandy ($17.3m), Jazz arbitration 3 (could be $10m+ easily), Luzardo and Rogers if still around would be in final years of arbitration also (could also easily be over $10m each), and then only very limited guys are in Arb1 or Arb2. Effectively, Correa, Sandy, Jazz, Luzardo, and Rogers could cost $75m for the 5 of them.... but you'd have 12-15 club controlled guys (like Mack, Berry, Watson, Eury, Fulton, Eder, Meyer, etc. - $10m) after them, and maybe 5-8 guys (Cabrera, Fortes, Groshans, DLC/LFers) in low arbitration so maybe they all collectively make $15-25m. So your payroll in 2026 might scale to $110m internally, and you'd have opportunities to move payroll (notably Luzardo/Rogers) as maybe Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Fulton/Eder/Garrett, and Luzardo/Rogers is enough for the rotation so you can effectively shed the 2nd most expensive guy as not needed? Maybe Miller is ready by then and works out? This is the broken record - they have so much high end MLB control, especially with the pitchers future salaries who are going to be so Effing low salary wise for a very long time, they can afford a star offensive bat and STILL have a bottom-ish payroll lower than Milwaukee. Simply stated, Bruce is just that cheap. And this ignores any deal Correa signs likely has a 3 year opt out so maybe he goes POOF from this anyways and 2026 is the same as this offseason, 22+ guys for roughly $75m and what are they going to do?


But $90m and under is going to be a shit show absent some really radical trades and then the kids being "2022 Jazz" immediately, and they get continued SP improvements.

[lou]

That would not be good.

It would not be, absent them signing Nimmo, your boy Drury, and trading major assets for say, Danny Jansen. Not holding my breath.

[fish16]

From Mish:

”Marlins were in on Jose Abreu per sources. To what level I’m not completely clear but I’m fairly certain they were one of the teams he was considering. The good news from this is that it looks like the Marlins are prepared to add to the payroll again this offseason.“

If this is true, that’s incredibly encouraging to hear. If he was considering them, that would mean their offer was competitive. And if their offer was competitive, that’s a lot of money per year, they were willing to spend. It would be REALLY nice if plan B in FA was one of these SS. You can’t be looking at significantly more than $20M per season, even if it’s for a lot more than 3 years. And you can offset some of that by getting rid of some of the guys currently on the roster. I know this is probably a pipe dream, and this is setting us all up for more disappointment, but at the moment, it’s a glimmer of hope. If you can land a real SS, then trade for a real CF, you’re going a long way towards making this a real lineup.

im so fucking tired of "being in on X free agent who just signed elsewhere" for reasonable money. At a certain point, its not enough. we have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball still and they have shown 0 indication to actually spend money on anyone significant. The front office tries to play this rhetorical trick of "oh we spent $100 million on Garcia and Soler" when really thats $100 million over 4-5 years, and i can guarantee you they were hoping soler went off last year so he would have opted out. Plus garcia was an obviously terrible investment from the second that contract was started and we all acknowledged that. They need to open up the wallet this offseason or quite frankly im done supporting this team. Theyve already made it so that i refuse to go to games, im pretty damn close to just following the team casually. Why should any one spend their money to support this team when the owner wont even spend his own money to support the team.

Ive said it for the last year or so, but we need an owner with a big wallet and a long term vision. Mediocre additions wont put this team over the top, and not being a good team means continued terrible fan base. A good owner would realize that a big initial investment would go a long way to making this team successful and with a more consistently engaged fanbae. Instead of waiting for the fan base to show up before spending money, we need an owner with vision who will do everything in their power to MAKE the fanbase show up. Expecting a damaged fanbase to come out and show support before you spend money is just asking to remain in this middling tread of low payroll mediocrity.

[fish16]

Miguel Rojas will be our starting SS this year guys c’mon we all know it.

of course they will. But Correa will sign and Mish will come out and say "we were in the ballgame for him" so the fanbase can get excited and think they had any intention of actually signing him.