2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Going through some of the prospects final stats. Kahlil watson had a horrendous first year but his stats show obvious hitting ability that is probably the best in the organization. even his shitty stats were still bad lindor-lite who was my comp for him. Still showed power and speed with 16 steals, 10 homers, and another 18 doubles. If he gets over his character issues he is easily right there with salas as our best hitting prospects.

Salas was also great this year. Just 19 in a and A+ ball and he had a .722 OPS, 9 homers, 20 doubles, 4 triples, 33 steals, just 95 k's and 43 walks in 412 AB's. they desperately need an influx of infield talent and those guys both look like players, but they are still both probably multiple years away.

Yidde Cappe also nice numbers. Dax fulton is an absolute stud. I think he's going to be really good. Still just 20, already reached AA, and in his first 196 pro innings he has 234 k's, 80 walks which should go down as he gets older, and a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Really solid for a 6'7 lefty. I could see him making some back end of the top 100 or just missed lists soon. Probably an early 2024 roster guy.

Joe mack started slow but ended up with really quality numbers for a 19 year old lefty hitting catcher. .768 OPS and a really nice 47/33 K/BB raito.

Never heard of jose gerardo but he absolutely destroyed the dominican league as a 17 year old

If nasim nunez can ever find the slightest amount of more power he's a stud. His speed is nuts and the defense is crazy good. This year his power was much more than it has been but he still needs more.

[sports24/7]

Nothing encapsulates the Marlins season better than Sandy throwing a one run complete game and losing. Maybe the only thing more appropriate would be if it was tied, and a reliever blew it in extra innings.

[Namaste]

Only 39 one run losses this year.

One other team in MLB is in the 30’s (Rangers 33)

[sports24/7]

The problem with Reynolds is he will cost Eury and a ton more, and Reynolds is likely a LF longterm (probably can do CF next year I'd imagine and that's it). That's fine, but Bleday, Sanchez, we'll say DLC, and maybe even Burdick are corner players. With Garcia signed forever, you are starting to teeter into Aguilar/Cooper/Soler territory of WTF is this positional arrangement with so many corner guys. I suppose you can punt CF defense for 2023 and keep everyone and have an unusual Reynolds/Sanchez/Burdick CF situation, but we're just the definition of insanity at this point hoping for a different outcome?

That being said, Bednar and Brubaker are *perfect* add-ons to Reynolds. So if you're going to move Eury, you demand those guys and lop in more. I'm not sure the Pirates care too much about a fancy RP and mediocre SP with 3 years of control with their contending timeline as moving Reynolds sets them back at least a year and they aren't a year away. Doing a quick surplus value analysis here....Reynolds, Bednar, and Brubaker are probably collectively $115-120m in surplus value. That package is for the Marlins would be INSANE. This is like a 6-3 trade idea.

Reynolds, Bednar, Brubaker, for.... (1) Eury (assuming FV65 valuation), (2) one of Berry/Salas/Watson/Cappe (assuming a FV50 valuation for any), (3) one of Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar, (4) one of Nunez/Morisette/A. Santos/Peguero/ R. Hernandez, (5) one of Okert/Nardi/Simpson, and (6) one of Sixto/Poteet/Bender/McCambley/Soriano. The only alternative is THREE of Berry/Salas/Watson/Cappe/Meyer/Eder/Fulton (assuming a FV50 valuation for any), plus everyone else listed above. Then the Pirates are going quantity instead of 1 better guy with that though, and baseball will be lining up to give them a ton for him. Maybe Berry, Salas, and Meyer plus everyone else gets it done? Hard to say what is better for anyone here.

This works ignoring Eury's upside as you can extend Reynolds, give Bednar a "Clase" type buyout to control his cost and not have saves artificially raise arbitration, and Brubaker is just a hired gun to trade in a year or two when Meyer/Eder/Fulton are more ready. I am saying Brubaker here so fish16 can trade Pablo without hamstringing them. Overall, this creates a net $4m in payroll once Pablo is moved. Then let's trade Pablo and another of Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar for A. Rosario and N. Jones (plus likely a prospect or two, which deflects on those last guys in the Pirates deal). Sign Rosario long-term for 4 years also.

So then they'd be at this for $84 million:

Fortes, Stallings
N. Jones
Jazz, Berti
Rosario, Wendle
Anderson, Groshans
B. Reynolds
________
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Brubaker, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett
Bednar, Floro, ______, Nance
Bleier, Scott, Okert

Other 40 man bats in AAA - Three of Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar/DLC, Williams, LeBlanc, Henry, Johnston < - Real solid depth, could use a better SS though as Nasim not 2023 likely

Other 40 man arms in AAA - Sixto, Neidert, Soriano, one of Simpson/Nardi, projecting trade returns for Cooper and Rojas here < - This is OK if Eder and Fulton also helpful to any extent

Top remaining prospects - Berry, Meyer, Eder, Cappe, Fulton, Watson, Lewis, Mack, Miller, Lewis, Morisette, Nunez, and in-coming 2023 draft picks < - Would have low farm ranking, but Meyer/Eder/Mack being completely healthy and Watson rebounding eventually radically jumps this quickly as time goes by

Longterm DL - Bender, Poteet

On top of this, they could sign say T. Williams for the last pen spot and just chalk up CF to Reynolds and three of Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar/DLC and see if they need a different CF at the deadline. That's a $90m dollar team and over a 40 WAR projection easily for 2023. This is a light years improvement via 2 trades centered around Eury/Salas and Pablo.

So you take a hit with Pablo, Eury, one of the big IF prospects, and a large assortment of mid-tier guys, but your years of control per position are now 5 (Fortes plus Mack), 6 (Jones plus Berry), 4 (Jazz and then your remaining IF prospects ), 4+ (Rosario, and then your IF prospects, assuming signing Rosario), 6 (Groshans, maybe Berry), Reynolds (3, and hopefully sign for more after but if no big contracts, this one is out), CF is still a dud, Garcia (3 and all the secondary OF), and 1-2 (Soler, but then all those secondary OF and/or Berry. Someone should hit), and 4-6 (entire rotation).

So they still need a CF but they can get by for 2023 likely, are completely loaded for years with cheap service time everywhere else, and god willingly Sixto, Meyer, Eder, and Fulton are back strong by 2024 so you'd have "10" SP and optimistically can move a few of them to cure remaining spots. Or Bruce decides hey let's run a $110m payroll and drop Nimmo on top of this and now we're in real business.


So yea long story long, trading Reynolds makes sense here if they get some other RP/SP involved, which opens up a Pablo trade. If you're going to trade Eury, you better get those secondary guys you want to make the juice worth the squeeze. Bednar would be a must at a minimum for me.



As for Rogers, FG summed it up this week. Don't sell low - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-r...changed-it-up/. You can do that same team above moving Rogers instead more than likely, not signing T. Williams (to keep under $90m), etc. It all works in a vacuum if Rogers gets you some bats.

And yea Groshans is it with the kids and they can hold all the OF on the 40 man for a year and see if the "Jesus Sanchez adjustment" works itself out for any of them.


This is the same drum being beat - they can do this but they will have to give some real value in trades and take some big swings to make it work. Top prospects must be moved and being cute with trying to find multiple $3m gems on 1 year deals and reclamation projects is not going to cut it.

It doesn’t appear Reynolds will cost Eury and a ton more. His value has gone down since the last time they spoke about a deal as he now has a year less of control. They will almost have to move him this off-season if they don’t extend him.

FWIW, Mish just tweeted that he thinks the cost would probably be 2 of Rogers, Cabrera, Eder, Fulton, and Meyer, and probably something else. I’d do that deal, if that’s the cost.

[Lee Stone]

I'd include Braxton Garrett in a deal for a special everyday player, but not any of Rogers, Eder, Cabrera, Fulton, Perez or Meyer. You'd be selling low on Eder and Meyer due to TJ surgery.

My big move for the future would be to introduce I Lews, K Watson, J Salas and Y Cappe to the OF. The Marlins have no good ML prospects in the OF at this time and speed is the most reliable asset. My hunch is that Nunez and Chisholm will man SS/2B and the 1/2 spots in the batting order for the next few years..

[fish16]

Sign. Luzardo.

[fish16]

Also, they have more than enough pitching to trade Pablo to help the offense before he leaves in free agency

[fish16]

Luzardo's final numbers- 100 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 120 k's, 35 BB's. Plus another 11 innings in the minors.
Cabrera's final numbers- 71 IP, 3.01, 1.07 WHIP, 75 k's, 35 BB's. Plus another 38 Innings in the minors.
Braxton Garrett's numbers before his last start tonight- 83 IP, 83 k's, just 19 walks. 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Plus another 37 IP in the minors.
Trevor rogers had a year from hell but still threw 123 innings total and had a nice rebound to end the year and go into the offseason with some sort of positive energy.
Sandy's final numbers- 228 innings, 2.28 ERA, .98 WHIP, 207 k's, cy young award.

You have Eder, eventually Meyer, Eury, Fulton in the wings the next 2 years. But god forbid they trade pablo we would absolutely crumble next year. It's best we keep pablo and our terrible lineup and just imagine pipe dreams where they sign a major free agent hitter.

Each of the young guys other than sandy threw at least 110 innings. To act like they cant improve that to 125-150 or so next year and that losing pablo would be the end of the world is so short sighted to the point of stupidity when you have the lineup we have. Trade pablo and get 2 upper minors ML bats, sign 1 more free agent, and thats about the best you can do for next year.

[lou]

It doesn’t appear Reynolds will cost Eury and a ton more. His value has gone down since the last time they spoke about a deal as he now has a year less of control. They will almost have to move him this off-season if they don’t extend him.

FWIW, Mish just tweeted that he thinks the cost would probably be 2 of Rogers, Cabrera, Eder, Fulton, and Meyer, and probably something else. I’d do that deal, if that’s the cost.

Two of them are extremely arguable more valuable than Eury, assuming Rogers or Cabrera is "1" of them. So his value is still sky-high. If they could get away with him for say Salas, Eder/Meyer, and Fulton, that is Kim earning her paycheck and then some.

[lou]

I'd include Braxton Garrett in a deal for a special everyday player, but not any of Rogers, Eder, Cabrera, Fulton, Perez or Meyer. You'd be selling low on Eder and Meyer due to TJ surgery.

My big move for the future would be to introduce I Lews, K Watson, J Salas and Y Cappe to the OF. The Marlins have no good ML prospects in the OF at this time and speed is the most reliable asset. My hunch is that Nunez and Chisholm will man SS/2B and the 1/2 spots in the batting order for the next few years..

Sounds like summer 2025 at minimum

[lou]

Sign. Luzardo.

Sure but not to the largest deal ever for a SP with his service time which you've yet to address. If they can get away with 5/$30-35, and even better with an option year. Go for it.

[lou]

Also, they have more than enough pitching to trade Pablo to help the offense before he leaves in free agency

They unarguably do not for 2023 due to innings limitations/injury history/actual injuries of their other SP, and you've yet to make any rational argument against that, but for, procuring "easy to get free agents" which I remind again, is not a thing when talking about replacing a 180 IP SP. Pablo is the 110th best player in baseball this year (46th P overall). Replacing that guy is extremely difficult. This is also ignoring what kind of payroll is Bruce going to allow to find these innings (where they also need at least 1 veteran bullpen arm)?

For 2024, assuming no catastrophic injuries and they get Meyer/Eder back healthy (not 2023 options), Eury is gearing up for 130-140 IP mostly at MLB level (not a legitimate 2023 option besides some minimal innings if all goes perfect after all star break), Rogers is closer to 2021 than 2022, Luzardo/Cabrera/Garrett show health without a dip in production, and Fulton (maybe Sixto and Poteet and Neidert? Some of these could be fleeting 2023 options) turn into viable MLB options, then obviously there is a massive surplus. Maybe even able to trade 2-3 of them (including Miller/Millbrandt here too). But you're running -0- deep going into 2023 removing any SP, and then banking on 250-300 innings we don't know about and this organization has shown no inkling they will sign.

Sign Clevinger, T. Williams, and get another 7th inning bullpen arm at a minimum ( $12-15m for those 3???), and you can start thinking about moving a SP, and bank on Eury/Eder/deadline trades to fill the injury gaps. Absent that, it is extremely difficult to project the staff for 23. I'll keep saying it - Meyer, Poteet, and Bender are *killing* their plan. Those are the exact 3 guys they need to replace Pablo.

[lou]

Luzardo's final numbers- 100 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 120 k's, 35 BB's. Plus another 11 innings in the minors.
Cabrera's final numbers- 71 IP, 3.01, 1.07 WHIP, 75 k's, 35 BB's. Plus another 38 Innings in the minors.
Braxton Garrett's numbers before his last start tonight- 83 IP, 83 k's, just 19 walks. 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Plus another 37 IP in the minors.
Trevor rogers had a year from hell but still threw 123 innings total and had a nice rebound to end the year and go into the offseason with some sort of positive energy.
Sandy's final numbers- 228 innings, 2.28 ERA, .98 WHIP, 207 k's, cy young award.

You have Eder, eventually Meyer, Eury, Fulton in the wings the next 2 years. But god forbid they trade pablo we would absolutely crumble next year. It's best we keep pablo and our terrible lineup and just imagine pipe dreams where they sign a major free agent hitter.

Each of the young guys other than sandy threw at least 110 innings. To act like they cant improve that to 125-150 or so next year and that losing pablo would be the end of the world is so short sighted to the point of stupidity when you have the lineup we have. Trade pablo and get 2 upper minors ML bats, sign 1 more free agent, and thats about the best you can do for next year.

No trade other players for bats FFS. Why do they need 6 good middle infield prospects with Jazz and Groshans at the MLB level?

Citing these statistics HURTS your position on Pablo you realize that? Jesus. Give the other 4 SP 150 innings each as your best case scenario projection. Give Sandy 200+. The team then needs 625 innings out of their relievers + Eury/Eder (who won't throw much at the MLB level which you continue to ignore).

Sign Clevinger, Williams, and get another 7th inning guy. That would be a bare minimum trifecta to replace Pablo effectively. And then pray no one gets hurt as the depth behind this is very thin (but you take that risk and make deadline moves to fix if contending so that's OK).

As said many times, they can do that, but I want to see some payroll devotion before just haphazardly trading one of the best 110 players in baseball for a hope and prayer. You can keep missing the forest in the trees, but let's not over rely on a bunch of guys with low innings potential and then get a JJ, Anibal, Nolasco trifecta arm blowout all at once. They've already had THREE major TJs with Meyer, Poteet, and Bender and they need to protect these guys. This is so basic.

[sports24/7]

Two of them are extremely arguable more valuable than Eury, assuming Rogers or Cabrera is "1" of them. So his value is still sky-high. If they could get away with him for say Salas, Eder/Meyer, and Fulton, that is Kim earning her paycheck and then some.

I don't know that I'd say two are more valuable than Eury, but two of them plus one mid level prospect is less than Eury and a lot more IMO. Either way, if that's the ask, I'd do it. Value-wise, my preference would probably be Rogers and Fulton, but I don't know that they'd send two lefties. Maybe Meyer and Eder or Fulton, because you have to try and win now, and those might be the three furthest away from contributing.

[fish16]

again, pablo's value will never be higher. they will not re-sign him in 2 years. He finally had a fully healthy year and again, his value will never be higher again in his career as his time to free agency will continue to go down and then when he signs his next contract you take into consideration the big amount of money he will be due. They have more than enough young pitching next year for one of the most talented rotations in baseball without him. You sign 1 back end guy for insurance, and trade the 110th most valuable player in baseball to improve a lineup that had the 27th lowest BA, 27th lowest OBP, 28th lowest SLG, 9th most k's, 24th most HR's, 23rd most doubles, 27th highest OPS. Moving forward after next year they not only have ridiclous talent but a big surplus with Meyer and eder back and eury with some ML time under his belt. Worrying about filling innings for next year with an offense this bad and not a single top 100 hitting prospect is so beyond dumb its hard to put into comprehension. I think you need to look at some of the slop other teams are throwing out in the back end of their rotation. We have more than enough options, and you sign a veteran for a year to eat innings as insurance. Worrying about the innings for next year with the pitching talent they have next year and beyond when they have one of the worst lineups ive ever seen and no discernable hitting talent ready to make an impact anytime in the next 2 years is just so short sighted and beyond dumb.

You trade pablo when his value will never be higher, you get 2 lineup pieces moving forward. You're advocating to waste Pablo's never to be higher value on the basis of needing innings eaten next year. Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Cabrera, Eder, Eury, and guys who can eat innings in Neidert and Castano. You need to look at the back end of every other teams rotation. We have more talent than the vast majority of teams. Worrying about innings being eaten for a single year is so far and away a much more minor problem compared to this longterm lineup that it's laughable.

So you worry about innings being eaten for a year so you keep pablo, still have a shit lineup or trade cost controlled guys with huge talent because you need to improve the lineup, and then you lessen pablo's value or let him walk in free agency or god forbid he gets hurt again. We dont have a good farm system other than the top end pitching talent. We have a lot of A or A+ ball hitters with promise but nothing that is going to get you anything significant unless you deal the entire farm, which is dumb when you have the 110th best player in baseball who finally put together a healthy year that you have no intention of re-signing in 2 years. It is an easy call. you trade pablo, sign an innings eater for a year and rely on the young arm talent, get 2 lineup pieces, sign another and a bullpen arm or 2, and you've dealt 1 player from the roster for 12 years of team control in the lineup between 2 pieces and kept the rest of your farm that a small market team like us needs to be able to compete annually.

Advocating for trading cost controlled huge talent pieces like Rogers and Cabrera instead of just dealing pablo at the height of his value is just plain dumb. You keep the surplus of cost controlled arms and trade the guy who finally put together a healthy year who you have no intention of re-signing in 2 years whose value will never be higher. it's not that hard.