2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

I think the attribution of so much pitching success (among starters only, you will note) to coaches is greatly overstated. Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, and Garrett were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent. Luzardo was a top prospect. Alcantara and Lopez have always looked good. On the other hand, where is the coaching showing up in the bullpen? We have to trade for almost the entire corps of relief.

Whether the failure to develop bats is due to poor draft picks or inability to coach better performance out of them is hard to say, but yes, the Marlins are awful at that.

[Nick]

I think the attribution of so much pitching success (among starters only, you will note) to coaches is greatly overstated. Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, and Garrett were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent. Luzardo was a top prospect. Alcantara and Lopez have always looked good. On the other hand, where is the coaching showing up in the bullpen? We have to trade for almost the entire corps of relief.

Whether the failure to develop bats is due to poor draft picks or inability to coach better performance out of them is hard to say, but yes, the Marlins are awful at that.

All 3 of those guys took huge steps after joining us. Eury Perez was not a huge international signing. Jake Eder (your guy) was a 4th round pick.

[lou]

I think the attribution of so much pitching success (among starters only, you will note) to coaches is greatly overstated. Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, and Garrett were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent. Luzardo was a top prospect. Alcantara and Lopez have always looked good. On the other hand, where is the coaching showing up in the bullpen? We have to trade for almost the entire corps of relief.

Whether the failure to develop bats is due to poor draft picks or inability to coach better performance out of them is hard to say, but yes, the Marlins are awful at that.

As Nick said, many guys (including Gallen) took huge steps forward. Also high draft picks are still no guarantee. Also, Anderson, Richards, Bender, Pop, Okert, turned Poteet into something. They have developed relievers even if many come from outside the organization and they then move them. If all the SP were healthy, I'd imagine they'd have some more relievers also. Yet another one that falls into over-criticizing because they are extremely bad this year because everyone is hurt and then on top of that, Garcia, Soler, Stallings, DLC, Lewin, Burdick, Aguilar, and Hernandez have been really bad.

But yes, getting Jazz, likely a platoon outfielder and catcher out of Bleday and Fortes at likely best, and basically nothing out of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, Sierra, Scott, Misner, VVM, Banfield, Lewin, Miller, Pompey, Devers, Conine, Osiris, A. Jackson, DLC, and.... no sure things out of Sanchez, Burdick, Encarnacion, LeBlanc, and Nasim (and I guess Williams)... is pretty criminal. You gotta develop more than 1 starter and 2 platoon guys with your best 20 internal swings at hitters over 4 years or so. Hopefully Berry, Groshans, Salas, Cappe, Watson, Mack, Lewis, Johnston, etc. buck this trend pretty quickly because they will arrive when they still have all of this pitching.

[sports24/7]

I think the attribution of so much pitching success (among starters only, you will note) to coaches is greatly overstated. Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, and Garrett were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent. Luzardo was a top prospect. Alcantara and Lopez have always looked good. On the other hand, where is the coaching showing up in the bullpen? We have to trade for almost the entire corps of relief.

Whether the failure to develop bats is due to poor draft picks or inability to coach better performance out of them is hard to say, but yes, the Marlins are awful at that.

The notion that those guys "were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent" just simply isn't true. The facts are that the vast majority of drafted players never pan out. Even in the first round it's a crap shoot. How many other organizations have had this kind of success even with highly drafted players? Luzardo was a top prospect at one point, but when the Marlins got him, he was almost an afterthought. I remember the argument being that Oakland does a good job of developing pitchers, so if it didn't work out there, we shouldn't expect him to in Miami. Were Alcantara and Lopez always good? Considering what Lopez was traded for, I'd say he's far exceeded his expectations. Alcantara was a top 100 prospect, but how many people thought he'd be a Cy Young caliber pitcher? Then add in guys like Eder, Cabrera, Perez, Gallen, and others who far exceeded expectations .

Have they been bad at developing BP arms? I'm not sure they've been any worse that others, but obviously the investment in those guys also has to be factored in. But they've sold some BP arms for solid value, and have some others that look promising. You also have to factor in the wide variance and uncertainty year to year in performance across the league at that position.

But it's not just magic, or luck, or investing in the position more than other teams. They have developed these guys well, and I'm not really sure how anyone could argue otherwise.

[lou]

The notion that those guys "were drafted so high that it would be criminal if they didn't show talent" just simply isn't true. The facts are that the vast majority of drafted players never pan out. Even in the first round it's a crap shoot. How many other organizations have had this kind of success even with highly drafted players? Luzardo was a top prospect at one point, but when the Marlins got him, he was almost an afterthought. I remember the argument being that Oakland does a good job of developing pitchers, so if it didn't work out there, we shouldn't expect him to in Miami. Were Alcantara and Lopez always good? Considering what Lopez was traded for, I'd say he's far exceeded his expectations. Alcantara was a top 100 prospect, but how many people thought he'd be a Cy Young caliber pitcher? Then add in guys like Eder, Cabrera, Perez, Gallen, and others who far exceeded expectations .

Have they been bad at developing BP arms? I'm not sure they've been any worse that others, but obviously the investment in those guys also has to be factored in. But they've sold some BP arms for solid value, and have some others that look promising. You also have to factor in the wide variance and uncertainty year to year in performance across the league at that position.

But it's not just magic, or luck, or investing in the position more than other teams. They have developed these guys well, and I'm not really sure how anyone could argue otherwise.

All true.

Frankly, Bruce needs to take a page from the Loria playbook and spend some dough, knowing you can blow it up in 2.5 years if it doesn't work out. The lack of developing bats is a problem that can be fixed pretty quickly as they really only need (or can add) a 1B, SS, and CF. They should spend $110m 23-25 opening day and if they suck summer 2025, tear it all down to abysmal payroll/club control in 26-27. Give the guys a 3 year window and don't over extend deals - basically sign E. Diaz and Rizzo for 3 years at really healthy annuals so they take low years, sign a 1 year SP, trade Pablo for a CF and Salas/gang for a SS. Have nothing on the books for 26 as the hedge here (i.e. don't sign Nimmo, Correa, Swanson and target a RP on a shorter deal and older Rizzo). If Bruce only wants $80m payrolls, Kim basically needs to pitch let's spend all of it 23-25 and have the entire team club controlled 26-27 if it doesn't work out. By 2028, it all nets out for Bruce so what does he care in the big picture scheme of things. He becomes Loria and frankly, that's an upgrade right now. I'm expecting nothing, but hopeful there is some creativity to just go for it understanding the pitching is going to project to be top 10 in the league if these guys stay healthy over the winter. And that doesn't include Eury, Meyer, Eder, Sixto, and Fulton.

[Nick]

Paul McIntosh having a real interesting year: .259/.382/.472 .854 OPS. .299 BABIP, doesn't strike out a ton, less than 20% K rate per PA. 369 PAs at AA this year.

From what I've heard about him, his defense is not great, but the bat could possibly play at DH/1B, I'm sure he'll get every opportunity to improve his defense at AAA next year. A guy to watch.

[rmc523]

All 3 of those guys took huge steps after joining us. Eury Perez was not a huge international signing. Jake Eder (your guy) was a 4th round pick.

Conversely, it seems like hitters at all levels take huge steps back when they get into the organization.

[Nick]

Conversely, it seems like hitters at all levels take huge steps back when they get into the organization.

There's no doubt about that.

[fish16]

All true.

Frankly, Bruce needs to take a page from the Loria playbook and spend some dough, knowing you can blow it up in 2.5 years if it doesn't work out. The lack of developing bats is a problem that can be fixed pretty quickly as they really only need (or can add) a 1B, SS, and CF. They should spend $110m 23-25 opening day and if they suck summer 2025, tear it all down to abysmal payroll/club control in 26-27. Give the guys a 3 year window and don't over extend deals - basically sign E. Diaz and Rizzo for 3 years at really healthy annuals so they take low years, sign a 1 year SP, trade Pablo for a CF and Salas/gang for a SS. Have nothing on the books for 26 as the hedge here (i.e. don't sign Nimmo, Correa, Swanson and target a RP on a shorter deal and older Rizzo). If Bruce only wants $80m payrolls, Kim basically needs to pitch let's spend all of it 23-25 and have the entire team club controlled 26-27 if it doesn't work out. By 2028, it all nets out for Bruce so what does he care in the big picture scheme of things. He becomes Loria and frankly, that's an upgrade right now. I'm expecting nothing, but hopeful there is some creativity to just go for it understanding the pitching is going to project to be top 10 in the league if these guys stay healthy over the winter. And that doesn't include Eury, Meyer, Eder, Sixto, and Fulton.

Realistically, 3 position spots is the maximum they can take care of in an offseason in an even perfect world, but to act like they really only need upgrades at those 3 positions is laughable. They need an upgrade at quite literally every position except for 2b and ill even allow an argument for C given fortes nice season and the dearth of catchers in the league.

Our 1b OPS this year is .661, which is 23rd in baseball. Our SS OPS this year is .619, 27th in baseball. Our 3b position is on fire this year at .706 OPS, 17th in baseball. LF is .635, 27th in baseball. CF is .600 even, 25th in baseball. RF is .579, 29th in baseball. DH is .660, 26th in baseball. I'm not gonna count 2b cause jazz has missed a significant portion and he has that position locked down, but our entire lineup is complete and utter shit. this lineup is not even 3 really good pieces away from being even competent. They are 6 competent pieces away from being anywhere close to average. Having someone to slot into a position next year because of shitty signings does not mean we have someone who can produce quality production next year. We have at least 7, and maybe 8 positions that need significant upgrades. And our hitting development is clearly and obviously complete shit. As someone who has been as positive as one can be about this team, it's enough already, stop the optimistic shit, we have a great future rotation and an absolute shit lineup and bullpen. this team is not remotely close and there is no path to contention without huge and unforeseen and frankly almost impossible spending of money this offseason. We have a lopsided, terrible team, with no major prospects on the horizon to help the lineup within the next 2 years. they need to trade pablo and sign 2 major free agents to have really any chance at contention next year.

The only path to contention would be a pablo trade for two big prospect lineup pieces, a signing like Correa that seems almost impossible, and then maybe 1 other bat signing.

[fish16]

and the most recent terrible development, albeit early, is that jacob berry seems like colin moran 2.0. Like a spitting image of mediocrity. Hopefully its just early, but the early returns show nothing spectacular. They need a complete and utter overhaul of every single person in charge of developing hitters in this organization. it cant simply be misidentifying players, this is clearly a combo of both bad players and horrendous, terrible, player development on the hitting side. we have developed almost no very good hitters since whoever was last out of JT. Fortes and Anderson are the best we have to show and both are low 700 ops guys this year. Every single player brought into this organization shits the bed unless they come here after being in at least the upper minors elsewhere. It cannot just be bad drafting. At the very least its a combo of bad drafting and horrendous player development.

Just look at the high draft picks since this regime took over:

2018
connor scott- .600's OPS for the majority of his minor league career until traded.
Osiris johnson- same thing
Will banfield- 500's OPS for all of his career
Tristan Pompey- 500's ops then released
Fortes- the only hit
Cameron Barstad- .600's ops

2019- only year with possible positives
JJ bleday- I like him, I see some positives, but I don't see star. I see another Brian Anderson type, maybe a little better.
Nasim nunez- Was always glove first, amazing speed, this is his best year yet, but still very little bat. If he makes it, it will be glove and speed first.
Burdick- Promising, but if he makes it he wont be a star, it will be a low BA, high OBP, power bat, good speed, but lots of k's.
Misner- Traded for Wendle, has his best year immediately upon joining the rays.
Evan Edwards- traded for john curtiss who we traded for peyton henry who sucks- might be the best bat out of this group. quality minor league bat.


2020- no hitters taken in the 5 round draft.

2021- an absolute abomination thus far
Kahlil watson- clear talent, maybe he develops, but he is a clear cut guy who has never struggled in his life and doesn't know how to handle the day to day grind of baseball and the struggles that every young player will go through.
Joe mack- promising so far to be fair. impressive k/bb ratio. good numbers as a young player. might be a hit, but still far to early.
Cody morisette- 22 years old and barely a .700 OPS in high a
Jordan mccants- .600's OPS in FCL ball
Tanner allen- 24 years old. .563 OPS in Low A. Bust
Brady Allen- 23 in high A, .705 OPS.


A complete and utter failure of management. IT makes me want to become an orioles fan, and their ownership is just as bad. You just have to hit on 3-4 of these guys with the ammo they had, plus the Yelich, Stanton, and JT trades. They seem to have not gotten a single player by trading 3 MVP level players. They got lucky on Sandy and Gallen and then Jazz, because if not, they completely botched every single aspect of the rebuild. The idea to rebuild was not bad, the execution could not have been worse. They fucked up every single hitting draft pick, every single trade major other than ozuna, and every single last signing they have had.

[lou]

Realistically, 3 position spots is the maximum they can take care of in an offseason in an even perfect world, but to act like they really only need upgrades at those 3 positions is laughable. They need an upgrade at quite literally every position except for 2b and ill even allow an argument for C given fortes nice season and the dearth of catchers in the league.

Our 1b OPS this year is .661, which is 23rd in baseball. Our SS OPS this year is .619, 27th in baseball. Our 3b position is on fire this year at .706 OPS, 17th in baseball. LF is .635, 27th in baseball. CF is .600 even, 25th in baseball. RF is .579, 29th in baseball. DH is .660, 26th in baseball. I'm not gonna count 2b cause jazz has missed a significant portion and he has that position locked down, but our entire lineup is complete and utter shit. this lineup is not even 3 really good pieces away from being even competent. They are 6 competent pieces away from being anywhere close to average. Having someone to slot into a position next year because of shitty signings does not mean we have someone who can produce quality production next year. We have at least 7, and maybe 8 positions that need significant upgrades. And our hitting development is clearly and obviously complete shit. As someone who has been as positive as one can be about this team, it's enough already, stop the optimistic shit, we have a great future rotation and an absolute shit lineup and bullpen. this team is not remotely close and there is no path to contention without huge and unforeseen and frankly almost impossible spending of money this offseason. We have a lopsided, terrible team, with no major prospects on the horizon to help the lineup within the next 2 years. they need to trade pablo and sign 2 major free agents to have really any chance at contention next year.

The only path to contention would be a pablo trade for two big prospect lineup pieces, a signing like Correa that seems almost impossible, and then maybe 1 other bat signing.

My critique of this is to stop thinking in absolutes.The team isn't an 88 win projectable team, nor is it a 61 win projectable team. Trading Pablo isn't the only path. They could trade Eury. They could package two minor league trades and trade a ton of guys for two centerpieces. They could do a combination of everything, or buy low on guys. Bruce could spend (lol). Maybe they give away Pablo and are able to attach Soler and Bleier to the deal, and while they only get nominal relievers/bench players back in that deal so the media calls it a dump, they just shed over $42m+ assuming Soler were to opt in to 2024 and Pablo were to be retained for 2024. Frankly, that may make sense in the big picture scheme of things if that money is then turned into something better and you got some good role players. Who knows. It's going to be a little bit of everything probably. They have a lot of options.

A top 10 hitting core in baseball is 23 WAR last 5 years, and top 10 pitching core 17 WAR. You get into the conversation of being a top 10 team with 40+ WAR. You *can* make the playoffs at this level, especially if you have an elite component to the team. Which they do - the SP. Expecting more and a 45-50 WAR team ala $200m payrolls is not going to happen. So how do you get effectively 40 WAR is the question.

The team probably projects to 30-34 WAR next year depending on those last few guys (keeping Cooper? Keeping Rojas? Keeping Floro?), and it's likely a $70-80m payroll projection for 20-23 players.That's ignoring the possibility if they get some breaks like Soler going on a 2019/post-2021 bender, Rogers returning to 75% of form, Stallings/Floro/Garcia being a bit closer to 2021, Bleday having a .285 BABIP, and Cabrera/Luzardo/Garrett each throwing 150 innings somehow. Effectively, 2+ of those open spots are TBD CC RHP relievers we can't really project for anything, so they are going to end up being around $70-75m and needing 3-5 players practically. The payroll difference there is Pablo being traded or not. The spots are likely CF, SS, RHP RP, 1B, and SP(if Pablo moved).

They should be looking to add 8+ WAR (if you recall, I wanted 5+ before this season so this is a notable step backwards) this offseason. If you trade Pablo, it's minimum 10+ WAR and while you get $6m bucks back and players with him, that's a hard move as Pablo is good and this team is going to win/lose on overwhelming people with pitching. I don't disagree trading Pablo may make sense if they do it right though (as mentioned, I like the idea of A. Rosario/N. Jones from Cleveland, they project for a combo 4+WAR next year and Cleveland has alternatives to charge their staff, etc.).

We'll see what they do, but this isn't insurmountable and the sky is falling. But they are going to have to hit on all 3-5 of these moves, and spend some money and minor leaguers to do it. The degree of difficult is going to be pretty high for a $90m budget which you'd hope Bruce would greenlight (that is a modest payroll increase), but I too share the frustration that this team would be fantastic on paper at $110m or more.

Let's hope, I'm just saying I'd chill out a bit as the SP + Jazz is a really really nice foundation. This year sucks, but baseball always regresses to the mean.

[sports24/7]

Groshans is coming up. I haven't watched this team in weeks. Finally there's a reason to watch. But knowing how they operate, he'll ride the bench every other day.

[lou]

Groshans is coming up. I haven't watched this team in weeks. Finally there's a reason to watch. But knowing how they operate, he'll ride the bench every other day.

It's interesting as it's ignoring service time for a floundering team. I have to imagine he plays every day.

Big picture, they presumably need 3 bats for next year and if Groshans looks good (or good enough), that changes to 2. It's a bit aggressive, but I think that speaks to their desperation. In that Bruce is likely not green lighting $110m which is the payroll level that probably solves all issues easily, so they are going to have to do this for pretty cheap so they are going to have to count on multiple club controlled guys for those last call it 6 guys on the roster. Nothing new here.

Let's hope. That would be something if they get a longterm 2+ WAR starter out of Bass and Pop.

That being said, Bass and Pop have 1.9 WAR this year and counting so why, but reliever volatility/hit tool upside/still cheaper and all.

[Lee Stone]

Groshans performs like a poor man's Charles LeBlanc. I can hardly wait.

[Nick]

Groshans performs like a poor man's Charles LeBlanc. I can hardly wait.

And obviously Leblanc and Groshans are at the same stage of development.