2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

He's not going to continue to hit .410, and he walked at a good clip in the minors.

Leblanc turning into a .260/.340/.440 guy in the bigs doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

That slash line is a top 12-15 hitter in MLB at 2B or 3B this season. I think there is a 0% chance LeBlanc turns into an above average offensive starter at 2B or 3B, but I'll gladly eat that crow.

ZIPS has .224/.281/.345 which seems the more likely scenario here.

Practically though, if .240/.300/.375+ happens and he has a platoon split (combining 2021/2022 minors he is much stronger versus LHP), this is an ideal backup. And would really be tremendous if he's the 6th infielder behind Jazz/New SS starter(or Rojas if they are cheap)/Wendle/Berti/Williams and then could outright replace Wendle and Berti along with Groshans in year for a really good internal depth chart. This is my hope, but we'll see if he can get around a .700 OPS after a lot of league exposure.

[Nick]

That slash line is a top 12-15 hitter in MLB at 2B or 3B this season. I think there is a 0% chance LeBlanc turns into an above average offensive starter at 2B or 3B, but I'll gladly eat that crow.

ZIPS has .224/.281/.345 which seems the more likely scenario here.

Practically though, if .240/.300/.375+ happens and he has a platoon split (combining 2021/2022 minors he is much stronger versus LHP), this is an ideal backup. And would really be tremendous if he's the 6th infielder behind Jazz/New SS starter(or Rojas if they are cheap)/Wendle/Berti/Williams and then could outright replace Wendle and Berti along with Groshans in year for a really good internal depth chart. This is my hope, but we'll see if he can get around a .700 OPS after a lot of league exposure.

I will say from what I've seen from him defensively, I say there's no way he's a 2B and I think 3B is even debatable. I think he's going to hit, we'll see.

[lou]

I will say from what I've seen from him defensively, I say there's no way he's a 2B and I think 3B is even debatable. I think he's going to hit, we'll see.

If he can do your slash line 3B/1B that beyond works too. A .675 OPS 3B/1B is a real solid 5th infielder as long as defense isn't atrocious. Frankly, that is Eduardo Escobar's slash this year and he's starting on one of the best teams in baseball as a low end regular. And if that comes with a healthy lefty platoon split, he's got a real shot at the 26 man maybe (with Williams then going to AAA. Good competition for both of them TBH). We shall see. He's earned the 100 PA so good for him either way.

[Nick]

De la Cruz optioned and Hamilton DFA btw.

[Lee Stone]

Thinking of the near future, I want five SS on my ML team. Think Chisholm, Salas, Cappe, Lewis, and then Nunez as the actual SS. With Jazz at 2B, the other three can form the entire OF.

[lou]

Thinking of the near future, I want five SS on my ML team. Think Chisholm, Salas, Cappe, Lewis, and then Nunez as the actual SS. With Jazz at 2B, the other three can form the entire OF.

I'm not sure where this post is going but Salas, Cappe, and Lewis would be 2025 summer adds on an optimistic time table. Nunez might be a year ahead of them, and that's assuming he can hit over .200 and somehow maintain the BB rate. There is nothing near term going on here with these guys at all. These guys aren't helping for years besides Jazz.

Also Nunez is probably the only SS on this list. Salas/Cappe are projected to grow off SS into 3B, and Lewis is already destined for 2B. Since they have Groshans too who is also destined for 3B, they should aim to be trading Lewis as part of a package for an immediate CF upgrade at minimum, and then using payroll to sign one of the stud SS out there to be that Jayson Werth signing. That gives them at least 4-5 years to develop Watson in the minors which seems like a floor at this point.

You can get behind this as a longterm pipeline of players and prospects. Frankly, this would be great if they do this and this is just getting a SS and trading Lewis. Not a lot of moving around parts

2B - Jazz --- > Williams [Wendle, Berti] ---> Salas/Cappe---> Morisette
SS - Correa/Turner/Xander/Swanson/Or Other trade return by finally moving someone ---> [Wendle] ---> Nunez ---> Watson
3B - [Wendle, Berti] ---> Groshans/Williams/LeBlanc I guess --- > Salas/Cappe

Lewis is part of some deal with others to get a SS/CF, and Bruce signs the other. Or maybe they are very creative and Pablo turns into both this offseason, and then Lewis can be part of a package for more pitching and what limited payroll left can be devoted to the bullpen/1 year SP.

Many options, but Salas/Cappe/Lewis look like excellent IFA adds right now for sure. I think tempering excitement that these guys turn into an immediate MLB core with Sandy during his control is a BIT too much is what I'm saying. They are 19. Jazz is 24 for perspective.

[lou]

Miami Herald has a semi-brutal, and also interesting, write up on several players https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...mainstage_card

Bleday - not middle of the order hitter, inconsistent hands/swing path, not a CF... but they have extracted some power out of him
Burdick - Backup 4th OF at best, can handle CF
Sanchez - Has tools to be a starter, do or die next year for him
Garcia and Soler - Will be better next year, especially if they get some lineup protection as they need some help
Stallings - Might be worn down from position
Anderson - He's good but they need to stop moving him around and bat him 5/6
Wendle and Berti - Team needs more of these types ofguys
Rogers - "one side of the plate dimensional"
Garrett - 4th SP
Meyer - 7th inning RP, not a high leverage arm
Eury - A # 3 on a good team
Jerar - Needs 1-2 years in minors but has a shot at a corner OF starter
Lewin - Needs more aggression at plate, a lot to like with glove


I am ok if this happens for the kids:

Bleday an OK starters and longterm LF/#6 hitter. That's fine especially with emerging platoon spike vs RHP which is happening right now.
Eury a good 3
Garret a 4
Rogers and Meyer relievers
If Burdick, Sanchez, Lewin, and Jerar all fail, so be it.


3 big problems solved and some relievers. Sounds great to add to Sandy/Jazz/Pablo/Luzardo/Cabrera/Fortes and prospect group.

[Lee Stone]

Hard to argue with any of this scout's analysis. On the plus side, it can be noted that Forte's performance is nearly identical to that of Realmuto this season (albeit in far fewer appearances). I see a lot of similarity in their game. I also see Rogers in a better light. He just has to make some adjustments to return to the 2021 version of himself. The stuff is still there.

I'm not inclined to see lots of hope for Bleday, Burdick, Diaz, Encarnacion or even Sanchez, regrettably. Jesus is vulnerable to both LHP and RHP now. They all pitch him inside.

This was the reason I emphasized the development of Cappe, Salas, Lewis, and Nunez in an earlier post. These are top athletes who can run and defend.

As I have been saying all season, I envision a different approach to handling the rotation. Cabrera, Rogers, Meyers, Garrett, Neidert, Perez, Fulton, Luzardo, Lopez, Eder, etc. can serve the team best and stay healthier if they are all used in duets where they pitch 4 or so innings per appearance.

[lou]

Hard to argue with any of this scout's analysis. On the plus side, it can be noted that Forte's performance is nearly identical to that of Realmuto this season (albeit in far fewer appearances). I see a lot of similarity in their game. I also see Rogers in a better light. He just has to make some adjustments to return to the 2021 version of himself. The stuff is still there.

I'm not inclined to see lots of hope for Bleday, Burdick, Diaz, Encarnacion or even Sanchez, regrettably. Jesus is vulnerable to both LHP and RHP now. They all pitch him inside.

This was the reason I emphasized the development of Cappe, Salas, Lewis, and Nunez in an earlier post. These are top athletes who can run and defend.

As I have been saying all season, I envision a different approach to handling the rotation. Cabrera, Rogers, Meyers, Garrett, Neidert, Perez, Fulton, Luzardo, Lopez, Eder, etc. can serve the team best and stay healthier if they are all used in duets where they pitch 4 or so innings per appearance.

Bleday has an .800 RHP / .400 LHP platoon split right now, and his HR are all off top end SP I think. It's a SSS but if that holds up, he's going to be good against RHP. I think there is a lot of hope with him, and given the power/control combo, it seems like he needs to figure out the right swing and he may really explode. He seems like at worst a very solid platoon option and that's really OK. The team needs an every day CF and a 4th OF who can hit lefties (which may be Burdick). Nothing much to worry here besides the constant critique - holy shit no CF.

I'm also 100% with you with the pitching idea. Throw them in waves, keep them all stretched out if needed to reshuffle on MLB roster. However, they probably can't do it next year with Meyer/Eder/Sixto/Poteet all hurt/coming off injuries and Eury/Fulton not really ready yet. As well as who knows what you get out of Neidert or Hernandez if he stays (which I think is doubtful). Maybe 2024. For next year I think the smartest move would be to combine Cabrera with one of the three lefties and they act as "1" SP. They probably have more innings potential out of Rogers and Garrett versus Luzardo, so this would be effectively throwing them like:

Sandy
Garrett
Pablo
Luzardo - > Cabrera (combo 270 innings, and pitch who goes first based on R/L heavy lineups and flip them all year as needed)
Rogers

This is switching them all R/L to note and I'm not calling Garret a # 2 here, it's strategic innings potential placements. Bullpen should be really fresh for the Garrett and Rogers days as they likely need the most help as Sandy and the Luzardo/Cabrera combo should eat massive innings, and Pablo would be third here.

Then in 2024 you can go nuts if everyone stays healthy. Mix and match the R/L as needed

Sandy
Pablo -> Eder
Cabrera - > Luzardo
Garrett - > Meyer
Rogers - > Eury

Bullpen - Sixto, Bender/Poteet, Scott, Nardi/whoever..... or hell maybe this is Sixto, Poteet, Fulton, and TBD lefty and all of these guys are multi-inning relievers too.

Your bullpen is rarely needed here (200 IP for the season or so) as Sandy is eating 210 innings and each SP combo is eating minimum 260+ innings. Attribute them as necessary, with Pablo/Garrett ideally getting 160+ and Eder/Meyer being worked in slowly in 3 inning bursts, and maybe more of an even split for Cabrera/Luzardo/Rogers/Eury to make them all 4+ inning assassins. Given everyone's age, pitch mix, and health, this makes perfect sense to me. Let's see some real innovation to try and figure out a way to contend with a crap payroll. Having a massive SP staff is definitely very interesting and every day is a total nightmare here for opposing teams.

Don't know how to fix the bats at all absent spending $$$ or liquidating Salas/Cappe/Watson (which would be ok!), but that staff could be incredible so maybe you just start there and we get used to 3-2 ball games for years.

[Lee Stone]

Well, the stadium dimensions appear to have been determined with a goal of 3-2 games, that's for sure.

[lou]

Well, the stadium dimensions appear to have been determined with a goal of 3-2 games, that's for sure.

Let's also take into account Atlanta's offense which is signed FOREVER so all roads lead to beating them on the mound as there is no chance in the field for years

[Lee Stone]

This is true. The Braves are a monster.

[Namaste]

The not trading Pablo at the deadline stench is becoming too much for my sense of smell to take.

[lou]

The not trading Pablo at the deadline stench is becoming too much for my sense of smell to take.

Bad games happen. Plus, the Padres are stacked right now.

Also, teams around the league could have been offering "Mahle" packages for him only so its better to keep him if that's the case.

I think this goes back to Lee above - maybe Pablo should be used 32x a year for 4+ innings and he maxes out at 140 IP spread out. Maybe he is starting to wear down as he hasn't thrown this many innings before? We'll see what he does rest of the year but this is going to be a painful 6-7 weeks to the end.

[fish16]

Bad games happen. Plus, the Padres are stacked right now.

Also, teams around the league could have been offering "Mahle" packages for him only so its better to keep him if that's the case.

I think this goes back to Lee above - maybe Pablo should be used 32x a year for 4+ innings and he maxes out at 140 IP spread out. Maybe he is starting to wear down as he hasn't thrown this many innings before? We'll see what he does rest of the year but this is going to be a painful 6-7 weeks to the end.

it's not one start. it's going on 3 months of mediocre performance. HIs ERA in june was 5.34, july was 4.34, and august coming into today's shitty performance was already 5.06. It was completely and obviously foreseeable. as I said when the trade deadline passed, his value can only go down by not trading him and waiting for the offseason because he does this every fucking year. he cant last a full year. it has happened every year of his career. they have missed on countless opportunities to sell high. they needed to find the best offer they can get for him at the deadline and dealt him for some hitting help with luzardo, cabrera, right behind him. they literally almost set the MLB record for most consecutive games with 3 or less runs in a row. it was mismanagement of the highest order.