2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

it is abundantly clear there is an obvious hitting development issue in this system. its not just guys not developing for us, its them completely turning the corner the second they leave. the latest example is stone garrett, former relatively high draft pick for us. Just got called up by the dbacks after absolutely mashing there. His OPS by year in our organization: .539, .933, .631, .571, .683, .702. His career high in home runs in our organization was 14, 11, and then 6. Leaves us, the last 2 years in arizonas system, .825 OPS 25 hr's, and then this year .900 OPS and 28 home runs. there is something fundamentally wrong going on in our minor league development. the literal only young hitter that has hit in 5 years is jazz, and he came up in a different organization.

They are as bad at developing hitting as they are good at developing pitching. nothing will change unless it gets fixed. and I couldn't even begin to tell you what the issue might be.

[lou]

it is abundantly clear there is an obvious hitting development issue in this system. its not just guys not developing for us, its them completely turning the corner the second they leave. the latest example is stone garrett, former relatively high draft pick for us. Just got called up by the dbacks after absolutely mashing there. His OPS by year in our organization: .539, .933, .631, .571, .683, .702. His career high in home runs in our organization was 14, 11, and then 6. Leaves us, the last 2 years in arizonas system, .825 OPS 25 hr's, and then this year .900 OPS and 28 home runs. there is something fundamentally wrong going on in our minor league development. the literal only young hitter that has hit in 5 years is jazz, and he came up in a different organization.

They are as bad at developing hitting as they are good at developing pitching. nothing will change unless it gets fixed. and I couldn't even begin to tell you what the issue might be.

Nick Fortes is sad by this post, and objectively Burdick was a good draft pick and success. Yes Scott/Misner/Bleday/Banfield/Nasim/VVM and gang are very lacking for their draft/IFA pedigree so your overall point stands. Garrett probably amounts to nothing, so who cares. They do need to be better here.

But ultimately regarding nothing will change.... they need a longterm starting SS and CF and they'll probably be pretty good next year. The team they are throwing out right now is down 4+ starting players, including Jazz who is obviously the big one. This team below is roughly $78.5 million (I am including club controlled players for last two RHP bullpen arms to note in that.... so add the SS and CF budget on top).

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper
Jazz, Williams
_____, Wendle/Rojas
Anderson, Berti
Bleday,
______
Garcia
Soler
(Anderson is backup 1B, and Anderson/Berti/Williams backup OF. Berti/Bleday each dabble in CF)

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers
Floro, Bender, CC Arm, CC Arm (Sixto? Neidert?)
Scott, Bleier, Okert

40 man bats - Henry, Groshans, LeBlanc, Johnston, Sanchez, Burdick, Jerar
40 man arms - Sixto, Neidert, Nardi, Soriano, Simpson (but Eury/Eder coming)


Frankly, this is the keep everyone team and it's very solid. You can sell me that team has 35 WAR upside, not including a starting SS and CF. Nothing will change until THAT is fixed. Once you get over a 40 WAR projection, you start becoming a playoff team.

Trade Rojas/Wendle for one of those RHP bullpen arms, and then let the camp battle dictate the other.

Trade Salas/Cappe as presumably the centerpiece, along with decent other guys (Fulton? Meyer? Eder? Lewis?) and solve CF somehow. It's Nimmo or nothing in FA, so this one likely has to be a trade.

Sign Correa/Xander/Turner/Swanson for SS and be done with it. If additional payroll needs to be shed here, it's ditching probably one of Anderson or Cooper and Floro, using them to trade for younger right handed pitching to play now, and promoting Lewin/Groshans/LeBlanc/Burdick/Sanchez to active roster in their place, etc.

They can do that team under $100m (maybe a little backloading with SS but thats fine), which is bottom 23 in baseball.


Basically - the road leads to Bruce. They've made mistakes and some hitting development is objectively terrible, but they frankly are 2 legitimate players away from being relevant come July 2023 and then take it from there. Gotta plant the flag with the Jayson Werth SS signing, and then do the "reverse Yelich" trade for the best CF available in the marketplace.

[lou]

it's not one start. it's going on 3 months of mediocre performance. HIs ERA in june was 5.34, july was 4.34, and august coming into today's shitty performance was already 5.06. It was completely and obviously foreseeable. as I said when the trade deadline passed, his value can only go down by not trading him and waiting for the offseason because he does this every fucking year. he cant last a full year. it has happened every year of his career. they have missed on countless opportunities to sell high. they needed to find the best offer they can get for him at the deadline and dealt him for some hitting help with luzardo, cabrera, right behind him. they literally almost set the MLB record for most consecutive games with 3 or less runs in a row. it was mismanagement of the highest order.

I'm not sure how you reconcile that they should trade him for the motherload/sell high, with then suggesting he hasn't pitched well for months and can't hold up a full year. This makes no logical sense. You're making the case why teams SHOULDN'T trade for him, as well as why the Marlins SHOULDN'T trade him as he's better than that if they use him correctly. If the Marlins traded him for a "Mahle" return we would have been pissed off and up in arms. You are extremely wrong to "take the best offer" and go with it. NO. That's the worst idea if that's not a good offer. Just keep him. It seems pretty clear to me no one wanted him for something good enough, and when that's combined with his value won't change this offseason (sorry, it won't with 2 years of control and he's cheap), this is fine. There are many things to complain about, but this is not one of them.

This also goes to what Lee and I mentioned above - throw them in waves. Maybe Pablo is 32x 4+ innings and he caps out around 140 (which is about 60-75th most innings for a pitcher in baseball which is objectively a lot these days). Nothing wrong with this. This goes for really everyone besides Sandy. The team needs to get out of the mindset of historical SP usage and getting an extra inning out of these guys in April-July which they may be able to do, if it means they are all worn down and tired in August/September. Look at the Rays with McClanahan. They will pull him when cruising. They get it. Sandy is a unicorn, treat him like one. Until someone else proves they can do it (hopefully Eury in a few years), target everyone for 140 innings.

Also, given that Luzardo/Cabrera/Garrett/Rogers aren't shoe-ins for 160+ IP each next year, and Eury/Eder/Sixto/Neidert are unknowns, they really need Pablo right now. They don't get the SP surplus until those back 4 + Meyer/Fulton/Poteet are ready and healthy in 2024. The bats need to be fixed, but taking 2 steps forward to go 2 steps back isn't worth it. They need to find another way.

[lou]

MLB updated their top 30 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/

Compared to Fangraphs updates, these are changes:

Much higher - Meyer (still elite), Watson (very good), Mesa Jr and Jerar (mid level guys)

A little higher - Berry, Bleday, Miller, McCambly, Johnston

A little lower - Salas (very good but not top 100)

Much lower - Lewis, Morisette, Nunez


Consensus farm might be (including the Herald scout too)

Elite (FV60) - Eury
Very Good (FV55/50) - Berry, Salas
Would be very good if not hurt or has potential to be very good (FV45+) - Meyer, Eder, Cappe, Watson
Solid prospects (FV45/40+) - Groshans, Lewis, Fulton, Mack, Bleday, Sixto, Miller, Burdick
Potential solid prospects (F40) - Morisette, Nunez, Hernandez, Jerar, Mesa Jr., variety of relievers and A ball bats too soon to tell

Seems about right. The trade depth here is certainly Salas/Cappe/Watson, Meyer/Eder/Fulton/Sixto, Sanchez/Burdick/Bleday/Jerar, and reliever prospects. This is the 4-1 clump for a longterm CF trade. Gotta be someone.

[Nick]

Troy Johnston recently got moved up to AAA btw. Been a very consistently solid, if not spectacular performer, in the minors. Not bad for a 17th round pick.

[fish16]

I'm not sure how you reconcile that they should trade him for the motherload/sell high, with then suggesting he hasn't pitched well for months and can't hold up a full year. This makes no logical sense. You're making the case why teams SHOULDN'T trade for him, as well as why the Marlins SHOULDN'T trade him as he's better than that if they use him correctly. If the Marlins traded him for a "Mahle" return we would have been pissed off and up in arms. You are extremely wrong to "take the best offer" and go with it. NO. That's the worst idea if that's not a good offer. Just keep him. It seems pretty clear to me no one wanted him for something good enough, and when that's combined with his value won't change this offseason (sorry, it won't with 2 years of control and he's cheap), this is fine. There are many things to complain about, but this is not one of them.

This also goes to what Lee and I mentioned above - throw them in waves. Maybe Pablo is 32x 4+ innings and he caps out around 140 (which is about 60-75th most innings for a pitcher in baseball which is objectively a lot these days). Nothing wrong with this. This goes for really everyone besides Sandy. The team needs to get out of the mindset of historical SP usage and getting an extra inning out of these guys in April-July which they may be able to do, if it means they are all worn down and tired in August/September. Look at the Rays with McClanahan. They will pull him when cruising. They get it. Sandy is a unicorn, treat him like one. Until someone else proves they can do it (hopefully Eury in a few years), target everyone for 140 innings.

Also, given that Luzardo/Cabrera/Garrett/Rogers aren't shoe-ins for 160+ IP each next year, and Eury/Eder/Sixto/Neidert are unknowns, they really need Pablo right now. They don't get the SP surplus until those back 4 + Meyer/Fulton/Poteet are ready and healthy in 2024. The bats need to be fixed, but taking 2 steps forward to go 2 steps back isn't worth it. They need to find another way.

I'm saying his value has never and will never have been higher than the deadline while also saying he has proven the inability to ever stay healthy for a full year. Those 2 things are not mutually exclusive.

you keep bringing up mahle for some reason when pablo is a better pitcher than him. And mahle's return wasn't terrible. There was 0 excuse not to trade pablo when they have no intention of re-signing him. His value gets lower by the day not only due to the proximity to free agency but also because he breaks down in the second half of every year. If they traded him at the deadline an acquiring team could have at least had a promise of a guy who seemed to have taken the next step and hoped he didn't break down in the second half. now you have yet another year of sample of him deteriorating as the year goes on. It was mismanagement clear and simple. They have enough arms and they can sign a 5th starter if necessary. They cannot find young cost controlled hitting without dealing pablo. Yes, they can trade other pitchers, but the other pitchers are more valuable than pablo to the franchise because they might be just as good if not better than him and they have years more of control. Trading him was completely idiotic no matter how much you want to defend it.

[lou]

I'm saying his value has never and will never have been higher than the deadline while also saying he has proven the inability to ever stay healthy for a full year. Those 2 things are not mutually exclusive.

you keep bringing up mahle for some reason when pablo is a better pitcher than him. And mahle's return wasn't terrible. There was 0 excuse not to trade pablo when they have no intention of re-signing him. His value gets lower by the day not only due to the proximity to free agency but also because he breaks down in the second half of every year. If they traded him at the deadline an acquiring team could have at least had a promise of a guy who seemed to have taken the next step and hoped he didn't break down in the second half. now you have yet another year of sample of him deteriorating as the year goes on. It was mismanagement clear and simple. They have enough arms and they can sign a 5th starter if necessary. They cannot find young cost controlled hitting without dealing pablo. Yes, they can trade other pitchers, but the other pitchers are more valuable than pablo to the franchise because they might be just as good if not better than him and they have years more of control. Trading him was completely idiotic no matter how much you want to defend it.

Disagree, your reasoning says they'd be selling him low with suggesting he hasn't pitched well since June. You're doing this again here also - arguing he is going to break down in 2nd half. Like, no other teams may think of this? You are making the case why no one should trade for him unless they can get out of it without top 100 guys (see Mahle). Also making the case Marlins usage is bad and they should reset him to a 32x4+ IP pitchier next year. Also, he has 2 years of control. Plenty of control and time if the devision is made to move. His value isn't changing absent a tommy john. He could get hurt and not pitch again this year and as long as he's ready for spring training, no changes.

Also Mahle's 2021 smoked anything Pablo has ever done (3.8 WAR), and is better right now this year (2.2 WAR, ignoring injury that just happened). He's also shown more durability. Career WAR 9.3 Mahle (117G), Pablo 7.7 WAR (86 G). I'd agree with you Pablo gets over 1.5 WAR in his next 1 season of work as Mahle is a year ahead of him, so Pablo is probably better historically if he throws his overall line this year, but Mahle is better today. Frankly, Pablo is a lot closer to Mahle than Luis Castillo and the numbers back it up. If the Marlins could have gotten a N. Marte, they certainly would have done it. Mahle's return didn't include a top 100 prospect (FG). That is terrible, but Reds are further back form contending so I get it and it's sad for them. We'd be pissed if all we got was Cappe/Lewis, Fulton, and Burdick for 2.33 years of Pablo who will cost 2/$14 after this year with neither year guaranteed. PISSED. Further calls for Kim's head PISSED.

Also, they DON'T have enough arms if you scratch off Pablo, Meyer (TJ), Poteet (TJ), Sixto (injury, what do you get?), Eder (injury, what do you get?), and Hernandez (sucks. Todd you are right. He can't even relieve). This is ignoring what are you getting with Rogers, Garrett is a revelation and does it keep up, Cabrera has been hurt, Luzardo has been hurt, and what is Neidert longterm. Pablo is a *need* as much as a SS and CF are right now... so why not just sign a bat which has less risk in free agency. This may however, change rapidly by the summer/2023-2024 offseason but we're not there yet and you're jumping the gun big time.

Big picture, you're missing the forest in the trees with how bad they are today. The pitching is fine and good, with upside to be great. Don't mess with the MLB guys. They gotta use say Salas/Cappe, Meyer/Eder/Sixto/Fulton, Lewis/Sanchez/Burdick/Jerar, and RP prospects to solve CF in a 4-1 reverse Yelich trade, and then spend some money to upgrade a spot in the IF (which can really be any of 1B/SS/3B but SS makes most sense IMO). Then get a lot of depth relievers and get to July when we see how the pitching has evolved and are Eury/Eder/Sixto/Berry/Groshans/all the OF looking like they are helping in 2023. Bruce has gotta SPEND something here. Absent that any maneuvering around hypothetical trades for prospects does nothing besides kick the endless rebuild cycle and now lets circle 2024/2025 when the new batch has their feet wet and Sandy/Jazz are in last 1-2 years of control.

[lou]

Troy Johnston recently got moved up to AAA btw. Been a very consistently solid, if not spectacular performer, in the minors. Not bad for a 17th round pick.

Yea, looking like he will be 40 man protected to me. He has a .857 RHP / .678 LHP batting split in minors. Starting to get interesting if the AVG/BB/K holds.

[Lee Stone]

Lopez could have moved to Dodgers for Gavin Lux a couple days before the deadline, I believe. That would have worked fine for me because Lux would instantly be the best Marlin hitter and offers some positional flexibility. Apparently the Marlins insisted on getting a couple prospects in addition to Lux and the Dodgers were having none of that.

[lou]

Lopez could have moved to Dodgers for Gavin Lux a couple days before the deadline, I believe. That would have worked fine for me because Lux would instantly be the best Marlin hitter and offers some positional flexibility. Apparently the Marlins insisted on getting a couple prospects in addition to Lux and the Dodgers were having none of that.

Nowhere near Jazz for one. Not a good deal unless he can play average CF defense. Not sure he can do that considering he is bad at 2B and LF. He should be pretty good though when someone figures out his position, but the bat is going to play down in a corner with lower power. Looks like he can hit a bit, although statcast is very lacking so a lot of power may not be coming and may have a Brendon Rodgers peak. The right move was a PASS if it was a 1-1 offer.

They needed Vargas AND Pages to do a deal with Dodgers IMO (as well as probably Amaya), and I'd have given them at least two of Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Wendle, Anderson, and Floro to make that worth their awhile. Along with cash if they had a luxury tax issue. Who knows if they'd do that. Even with Groshans, banking on one of them being able to handle 3B and Pages CF summer next year would have been a good bet. I suspect the Dodgers would have said no here, but Vargas/Pages/Amaya would have been fantastic for Pablo and guys who will be gone in a year.

[fish16]

Nowhere near Jazz for one. Not a good deal unless he can play average CF defense. Not sure he can do that considering he is bad at 2B and LF. He should be pretty good though when someone figures out his position, but the bat is going to play down in a corner with lower power. Looks like he can hit a bit, although statcast is very lacking so a lot of power may not be coming and may have a Brendon Rodgers peak. The right move was a PASS if it was a 1-1 offer.

They needed Vargas AND Pages to do a deal with Dodgers IMO (as well as probably Amaya), and I'd have given them at least two of Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Wendle, Anderson, and Floro to make that worth their awhile. Along with cash if they had a luxury tax issue. Who knows if they'd do that. Even with Groshans, banking on one of them being able to handle 3B and Pages CF summer next year would have been a good bet. I suspect the Dodgers would have said no here, but Vargas/Pages/Amaya would have been fantastic for Pablo and guys who will be gone in a year.

So dumb. Lux for Pablo straight up with eury ready next year and Cabrera and luzardo looking solid is what a smart team would do. Would be the best bat in our lineup. They’d find a position. We literally have 7 of them for the taking outside of 2b.

[Lee Stone]

So dumb. Lux for Pablo straight up with eury ready next year and Cabrera and luzardo looking solid is what a smart team would do. Would be the best bat in our lineup. They’d find a position. We literally have 7 of them for the taking outside of 2b.

Based onTrade Values site, Lux for Lopez was an even deal prior to deadline. Since then, their numbers have been adjusted to where Lux is considerably higher (a Pablo descent). Just Vargas and Pages for Lopez was even value according to MLBtradevalues

Lux 124 OPS+ and 2.8 current WAR easily makes him the best Marlins bat. Dodgers News: LA Insider Makes Bold Claim About Gavin Lux (msn.com)

I feel like a Lux/Lopez trade would have been very similar to the Chisholm/Gallen trade.

[lou]

So dumb. Lux for Pablo straight up with eury ready next year and Cabrera and luzardo looking solid is what a smart team would do. Would be the best bat in our lineup. They’d find a position. We literally have 7 of them for the taking outside of 2b.

Based onTrade Values site, Lux for Lopez was an even deal prior to deadline. Since then, their numbers have been adjusted to where Lux is considerably higher (a Pablo descent). Just Vargas and Pages for Lopez was even value according to MLBtradevalues

Lux 124 OPS+ and 2.8 current WAR easily makes him the best Marlins bat.

Missing the forest among the trees. Will critique in order as there is so much wrong here it is difficult to cohesively order the problems.


Eury ready next year - Eury has thrown 73 innings this year after a robust 78 last year. He may be done this year also? He is 19. Yes, we all love him and he may be great and he may debut next year, but if they get 50 IP out of him at the MLB level next year that is going to be optimistic. At best, he's going to throw 60-70 in AA/AAA and then get called up after the Super 2 deadline (sorry this is always relevant). The suggestion they have pitching depth to overcome trading Pablo's innings is not based in reality. Trading Pablo may help the offense, but then you need to get a SP to be able to help here. They can't go into the season with the other 5 SP, as although....

Cabrera and Luzardo look solid - AND Garrett - all three of them have had major arm problems in their career and Garrett/Luzardo are max-effort pitch mix guys (Garrett 44% SL/CB, Luzardo SL 35%) so they are probably maxing out 140+ IP at best. Rogers and Cabrera can likely handle more as more changeup dependent guys, but then let's talk about how good Rogers has looked this year combined with Cabrera is going to max out at 125 IP coming off injury next year. These guys aren't eating innings, and now let's talk about the bullpen after Floro, Bender, Scott, Okert, and Bleier..... we have hundreds of innings left to go here! Trading Pablo is going into the season with 1 ace and 4 lower inning SP, and the backups are non-existent as Meyer hurt, Poteet hurt, Hernandez sucks and will be gone, Eury not ready/super2/low innings, Eder is who knows, Fulton is likely not ready.... and I'm at Neidert already and how many innings can Sixto reasonably be expected to throw? This is how you don't contend when you radically impact your SP depth. A good 150 IP SP is a legitimate "need" and Pablo is going to cost under $6m bucks. As mentioned, maybe 2024 the SP depth materializes. Not this offseason. A smart team would NOT touch the pitching with what the gameboard looks like now. You are right that they "had" depth before the year and should have traded for Reynolds (or whoever can play CF) then, but that has vaporized with Meyer, Poteet, and Hernandez turning into -0s-, and Rogers shitting the bed, despite all the other good news going on.

Jazz is better than Lux. Full stop. Not best bat in the lineup. That also doesn't include Jazz's immense defensive value over Lux anywhere.

They'd find a position for Lux? Not playing C, SS, 3B (Dodgers have had 3B problems so if he could do it they would), or CF. So he's a 1B/LF/RF/DH for the Marlins, and they are not giving up on Bleday/Sanchez/Burdick, Garcia, and Soler. So he's the team's longterm..... 1B? Who's value is tied to discipline with no power potential (see statcast - he doesn't hit the ball hard which is fine as discipline is great, but this is not theaproverbial 1B)? What about Berry, or are we just penciling him into DH after Soler (which may be true). Lux is a bat-first 2B who may hit enough to not be a positional defensive liability. Let's not trade IN DESPERATION for a solid bat and then move him to 1B to decrease his value. What in the world. Practically, if Lux could play 3B or CF this would make more sense as Groshans wouldn't block him. I'd be on board with that, but he can't do it so let's not spin our wheels. He is a terrible fit for the Marlins because of Jazz and lower MLB SP depth today.

Lux has 4 years of control, so for a team needing a 2B it would make sense. However, Miami has arguably the # 1, floor #5, 2B situation in baseball right now so I have no words for wanting to trade for a 2B with the best trade asset you have. Also to note, Lux becomes more expensive in 2024 and this team needs to get CHEAPER if they are going to move Pablo. The financial aspect of this also makes sense to not have him be the only return here. It makes more sense to trade for something like Rosario (CLE) and a good prospect if you want to start trying to find positional fit upgrades.

Trade values site is pretty crappy Lee. Which regardless is also why I mentioned -before- the trade deadline that move should be something like Vargas/Pages/Amaya/Outmann for Pablo/Cooper/Floro, with maybe the Marlins picking up some money, bad contract, or throwing in a guy like Morisette to time shift the Dodgers prospects. That deal works on paper for everyone, but thankfully, we don't need to talk about this as it didn't happen. That's the kind of trade they need for Pablo who is very good despite the current frustration. If not, the correct answer is KEEP and to ignore the riff-raff on Twitter that the sky is falling. Which it isn't. They need a CF, IF upgrade, and a good RHP reliever to match with Floro and Bender. They need 3 guys for next year, they have the other 26. But yes, the two bats need to be "really really good" so it swings back to the constant will Bruce spend and will Kim finally dip into the farm to trade.

[lou]

That's actually a good trade idea I hadn't thought of.

Pablo and Cooper..... for Amed Rosario... and Nolan Jones and probably a FV45/40+ and FV40 prospect.

Cleveland could run out:

C - Naylor/Maile/Hedges/Lavistida
1B - COOPER/Naylor
2B - Rocchio/Freeman/Arias/Miller (first 3 are FV50 prospects to note)
SS - Gimenez (thank god the Mets traded him)
3B - Ramirez
LF - Kwan/Whoever
CF - Straw/Kwan
RF - Gonzalez/Valera (they love Valera, top 50 prospect)
DH - COOPER/Naylor/Valera

SP - Beiber, PABLO, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale/Plesac while they wait for Espina

Miami could run out:

C - Fortes/Stallings
1B - JONES
2B - Jazz
SS - ROSARIO (and sign him for 4-5 years. He'd he 27-31)
3B - Wendle/Anderson/Berti (Groshans)
LF - Bleday/Anderson/Berti/Sanchez/Burdick
CF - _________
RF - Garcia
DH - Soler

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers


Would need to sign some 1 year stop gap pitching and then trade Salas/Cappe and friends for a CF, but this is probably an.....$81m team plus the SP, CF, and bullpen acquisitions. Would go down to $76m if Anderson was also moved which would make sense. If Bruce let's them spend $90 and its a club controlled CF, they can spend $8-10m on a SP reclamation project and $4-5m on a RP which should be a good one.



This makes sense. A longterm SS (assuming the idea is to sign him) and FV50 1B/RF/DH candidate, with some throw ins. That works. Let's be smart and not trade for second fucking baseman dear god.

[Lee Stone]

I'd point out that the Marlins traded for Chisholm with an eye to him becoming their shortstop, not the second baseman. As good as Chisholm is athletically, I can't rule him out at short ... no way.