2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I'm sick of the service time stuff. the guy is ML ready and if you're really trying to compete next year, get him some ML experience to end the year and hope he finds some holes in his game that the major league pitchers will exploit and have him work on it in the offseason and try to hit the ground running opening day next year. It is admittedly short sighted, but I'm tired of playing for 7 years from now. With our luck anyways he will stink and it will be meaningless. Or if he hits you've found a cornerstone hitter and you can deal with the free agency aspect a half decade from now.

It's 2 weeks and 2 days for a full season of service time. This is a low ask.

[fish16]

It's 2 weeks and 2 days for a full season of service time. This is a low ask.

it's also going into next year with a 3b that you have no idea can produce at the major league level. find out what you have. enough of the service time games. you have sandy locked up for 5 years for peanuts, find out what you have from these guys and stop with the service time bullshit. they have shown no ability to identify hitting talent. go into the offseason with an idea of what you just acquired so you;re not going into spring training again blind.

Stop playing for 6-7 years from now. it's going to be year 6 of the rebuild next year, find out what you have. if they get busch and/or vargas, they both need to be in the big leagues the rest of the year.

[fish16]

i could also see gavin lux coming back for pablo.

[lou]

I wouldnt mind a combo of getting prospects for pablo AND getting a hitter like Laureano for next year. The price for Laureano cant be that high one year from free agency and not exactly having the best last few years. He will be a decent stop gap for next year in CF and gives you another year to find a long term option there. Give them a fulton type prospect and bring him in, then deal pablo, cooper, and bass for Cartaya, Busch, and Vargas.

All of a sudden next year you're looking at

C- Fortes/Cartaya later in the year
1b- Busch/Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS- GO GET CORREA
3b- Vargas
LF- Bleday
CF- Laureano
RF- Sanchez
DH- Garcia

SP- Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, go sign a stop gap back end of the rotation guy, then you still have guys like Garrett, Sixto, Eder, and eventually Meyer in 2024.
They wont do what it takes to get Correa so it's a pipedream, but a pablo deal done right plus the ownership showing at all that they care about the teams on field performance, and you have a realistic pathway to contention.

I desperately want Vargas and Busch because I think you can plug them in at the corner infield spots for the next 5 years and get serious production from those positions that it feels like we haven't had since Cabrera, Lee, and Mike Lowell. It's been nothing but stop gaps or mediocre guys like Prado and BA and Aguilar since then.

Also, i wouldn't be shocked to see a big market team grab soler today.

Soler is not opting out. I could see him traded if the Marlins eat some dollars though. That would be interesting. His statcast is good so someone may take a risk.


So let's do your plan, this is roughly $81 MILLION in 2023. This is trading Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Pablo, Bass, and Floro.

Fortes, Stalling (Cartaya in immediate pipeline)
Busch, Lewin (Berry in immediatepipeline)
Jazz
Swanson*, Wendle
Anderson, Vargas (primary DH) (Williams optioned to AAA as next up for any injury)
Bleday
Laureano, Sanchez (Burdick in immediate pipeline)
Garcia

Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett (Eury and Eder in immediate pipeline)
Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez, _____
Scott, Bleier, Okert

*(Correa too expensive, Swanson likely $5-8 cheaper per year and very good)


I'm imagining here Pablo/Cooper/Bass are in LAD.... so Cooper, Berti, and Floro turn into cheap RP options to add to Neidert/Sixto/Eury/Eder as the call up crew.

Also, you can shave another $8-9m off this team if you DFA/trade Stallings, Anderson, and Hernandez. If you replace with Henry, L. Williams, and a club controlled reliever.... you'd presumably have $5-10m to spend on arm. A # 4 innings eater or fancy RP each make sense here, etc.

[fish16]

@JonHeyman
Many teams have called on Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers, two young Marlins starters. The Marlins are decimated by injuries and now out of the race, but with years of control, they don’t have to deal them. They are envisioning an Alcantara, Lopez, Eury Perez rotation top in ‘23.


We are such a dumb fucking franchise if this is their view. Rogers not going anywhere is obvious, but if they think they are competing by not trading pablo and then inevitably not spending money, they are run by morons and NG needs to be fired immediately.

[fish16]

swanson at that price tage does absolutely nothing for me. Give me Nimmo or Correa or bust. Swanson has been in a tremendous lineup his entire career, has barely hit above .800 OPS, steals few bases, and strikes out a ton. that's a guy who absolutely craters coming here as the best hitter in a lineup.

[lou]

@JonHeyman
Many teams have called on Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers, two young Marlins starters. The Marlins are decimated by injuries and now out of the race, but with years of control, they don’t have to deal them. They are envisioning an Alcantara, Lopez, Eury Perez rotation top in ‘23.


We are such a dumb fucking franchise if this is their view. Rogers not going anywhere is obvious, but if they think they are competing by not trading pablo and then inevitably not spending money, they are run by morons and NG needs to be fired immediately.

I'd argue I am very interested in this pitching staff in 2024:

Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Pablo, Rogers/Garrett/Eder
Meyer, Cabrera, Bender, Sixto, Pop/Poteet
Rogers/Garrett/Eder, Rogers/Garrett/Eder, Scott/Okert

And 2025

Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, Rogers/Garrett/Eder
Meyer, Bender, Sixto, Pop, Poteet
Rogers/Garrett/Eder, Rogers/Garrett/Eder, Fulton

This is some crazy shit

I don't know how you solve the bats if they "keep everyone" as I agree money will have to be spent, and they will have to dip majorly into Salas/Watson/Lewis/Cappe/Morisette to fix things now... and pray to god Bleday/Berry hit their upper ceiling, and the Fortes/Lewin/Sanchez crew become solid low end starters, but that staff is some crazy shit right there.

It keeps getting back to Bruce for me. Spend some fucking money, and not even a lot of it. $100-110m. Become Milwaukee. Which is Algonquin for the good land.

[lou]

swanson at that price tage does absolutely nothing for me. Give me Nimmo or Correa or bust. Swanson has been in a tremendous lineup his entire career, has barely hit above .800 OPS, steals few bases, and strikes out a ton. that's a guy who absolutely craters coming here as the best hitter in a lineup.

Since the start of 2020:

Correa .273/.352/.454 (.312 BABIP), 1200 PA, 9.2 WAR
Swanson .269/.332/.458 (.334 BABIP), 1349 PA, 10.5 WAR

I agree Correa is better, as well as Nimmo. But Swanson is very very good (and everyone has a good lineup here).

He is BABIP inflated this year, but his 2020-2021 is a pretty good base line. He's a 3.5+ WAR player for years for me. I'd say Swanson on a 6/$140 deal is better value than Correa on an 8/$225 so to speak.

[lou]

@JonHeyman
Many teams have called on Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers, two young Marlins starters. The Marlins are decimated by injuries and now out of the race, but with years of control, they don’t have to deal them. They are envisioning an Alcantara, Lopez, Eury Perez rotation top in ‘23.


We are such a dumb fucking franchise if this is their view. Rogers not going anywhere is obvious, but if they think they are competing by not trading pablo and then inevitably not spending money, they are run by morons and NG needs to be fired immediately.

Frisario says this:

6 pm ET #MLBTradeDeadline #MakeItMiam likely to deal a reliever: Bass, Okert, Floro, Scott in play… Probably moving Aguilar … Maybe Pablo, Trevor, Coop… Don’t rule out Miiggy. Teams have called on Wendle. Enjoy your day

If they are able to move two of those relievers (especially Floro and Bass as they make the most money), Aguilar, Cooper, and one of Rojas/Wendle, that's probably a pretty solid deadline. I'm not sure why Berti isn't being mentioned. He's going to be back soon and is the perfect bench guy for a contender.

[fish16]

Frisario says this:

6 pm ET #MLBTradeDeadline #MakeItMiam likely to deal a reliever: Bass, Okert, Floro, Scott in play… Probably moving Aguilar … Maybe Pablo, Trevor, Coop… Don’t rule out Miiggy. Teams have called on Wendle. Enjoy your day

If they are able to move two of those relievers (especially Floro and Bass as they make the most money), Aguilar, Cooper, and one of Rojas/Wendle, that's probably a pretty solid deadline. I'm not sure why Berti isn't being mentioned. He's going to be back soon and is the perfect bench guy for a contender.

aguilar is a salary dump bench bat flier for a contender, miggy can go don't really care but he's not bringing back anything, wendle id keep. he has versatility, is under control for next year, and again, given our inability to find quality bats, just keep him for next year. you're not going to get back anything for him in a trade that would out produce him next year. they need to make next year a priority. anything they get in these trades need to be guys that can produce at the major league level right away unless it's a top prospect like cartaya.

[fish16]

Since the start of 2020:

Correa .273/.352/.454 (.312 BABIP), 1200 PA, 9.2 WAR
Swanson .269/.332/.458 (.334 BABIP), 1349 PA, 10.5 WAR

I agree Correa is better, as well as Nimmo. But Swanson is very very good (and everyone has a good lineup here).

He is BABIP inflated this year, but his 2020-2021 is a pretty good base line. He's a 3.5+ WAR player for years for me. I'd say Swanson on a 6/$140 deal is better value than Correa on an 8/$225 so to speak.

Swanson for 23.5 million a year for the marlins is completely ludicrous. this is like the didi gregarious and nick Castellanos conversations all over again. since you argued they need to go out and sign him he put up a combined -.2 WAR for the philies in 3 years. Nick Castellanos has a -1.2 WAR for the Phillies this year. I'm not sure how many times we can argue about this but you don't go out and sign above average players for huge contracts and more than 2 years when you have the marlins payroll limitations.

Teams like the marlins should under no circumstances spend 20+ million a year on non stars. What swanson produces with Acuna, Albies, Ozuna, RIley, Olson, Contreras around him is not comparable to what he will produce with bryan de la Cruz around him and in our ballpark. That is a complete albatross contract the minute he signs here.. Nimmo is a proven leadoff hitting allstar and can play CF, that's a guy you go and spend money on.

Correa is risky, but he's a ceiling play. he is a superstar ceiling but he has off years and an injury history. but he's the star centerpiece this team can build around offensively

[sports24/7]

@JonHeyman
Many teams have called on Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers, two young Marlins starters. The Marlins are decimated by injuries and now out of the race, but with years of control, they don’t have to deal them. They are envisioning an Alcantara, Lopez, Eury Perez rotation top in ‘23.


We are such a dumb fucking franchise if this is their view. Rogers not going anywhere is obvious, but if they think they are competing by not trading pablo and then inevitably not spending money, they are run by morons and NG needs to be fired immediately.

If they really think Eury will be in the rotation next year, that’s even more of a reason to deal Pablo now. Unless they’re going to completely shock us and spend money on an actual good hitter or two. But we all know they’re not going to do that, so…

[lou]

Swanson for 23.5 million a year for the marlins is completely ludicrous. this is like the didi gregarious and nick Castellanos conversations all over again. since you argued they need to go out and sign him he put up a combined -.2 WAR for the philies in 3 years. Nick Castellanos has a -1.2 WAR for the Phillies this year. I'm not sure how many times we can argue about this but you don't go out and sign above average players for huge contracts and more than 2 years when you have the marlins payroll limitations.

Teams like the marlins should under no circumstances spend 20+ million a year on non stars. What swanson produces with Acuna, Albies, Ozuna, RIley, Olson, Contreras around him is not comparable to what he will produce with bryan de la Cruz around him and in our ballpark. That is a complete albatross contract the minute he signs here.. Nimmo is a proven leadoff hitting allstar and can play CF, that's a guy you go and spend money on.

Correa is risky, but he's a ceiling play. he is a superstar ceiling but he has off years and an injury history. but he's the star centerpiece this team can build around offensively

Swanson is a star and much better than Didi/Castellanos ever have been (and I didn't want Nick for his price).


So do that same thing above, ditch Anderson/Stallings/Hernandez and do this for say $82m. I'm in.

This is trading Stallings, Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Anderson, Pablo, Bass, Floro, and Hernandez

Fortes, Henry (Cartaya in immediate pipeline)
Busch, Lewin (Berry in immediate pipeline)
Jazz
Correa, Wendle
Vargas, Williams
Bleday
Laureano, Sanchez (Burdick in immediate pipeline)
Garcia

Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett (Eury and Eder in immediate pipeline)
Bender, Pop, Poteet, ______, _____
Scott, Bleier, Okert

I assume Stallings/Berti/Rojas/Anderson/Floro/Hernandez get you relievers while Pablo/Cooper/Bass get you those Dodgers guys, etc.

Also, just spend $89.9m dollars and you can fit in a really nice 4/5 starter or reliever which really would balance things out.


(** You can also do this with Nimmo, keep Rojas and punt SS decision to 2024, and then use the assets for the hypothetical Laureano trade for gasp, pitching help)

[sports24/7]

Reports are that SD is close to getting Soto. Last year they were about to get Scherzer before the Dodgers swooped in so you never know, but if he lands in SD maybe that makes LA more desperate to deal with us. They could one stop shop for Lopez, Cooper, and Bass.

[fish16]

i'm sorry but swanson is not a star. I wouldn't even count him as a top 5 SS, let alone a star league wide. He's a good, not great player, aided by an unbelievable lineup around him. any team with a terrible lineup like the marlins expecting a star for 23+ million a year is absolutely insane.