2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

If Garrett continues to pitch at the level he has for the rest of the season, he definitely will have earned 2023 rotation spot. And really I think only Pablo and Sandy have penciled their names in for the 2023 rotation as of yet. (assuming Pablo is back of course)

I don't think anyone could've predicted the pitching situation to play out that way, but here we are.

Luzardo's last 14 starts (dating back to the nice end to last year)

69 IP, 10.96 K/9, 4.17 era, 3.65 FIP, 3.76 FIP, 1.17 WHIP - 1.1 WAR

It's basically 5 innings a start which is fine. Those strikeouts and whip are going to catch him up to the FIP sooner rather than later.... and it's a SSS but the K/9 is 12.18 this year, 1.09 whip, x3.13 FIP. There is upside here on top of the last 14 starts. Massive upside. He is quietly on the verge of becoming a monster. Even if that's only over 5 innings.


Rogers and Cabrera both need to end strong as they have problems if they go with a standard 5 man rotation. I agree, Garret is going to win a spot if he does this 10 more starts and you can't not pitch Luzardo is what I mean to say above.

[Nick]

Luzardo's last 14 starts (dating back to the nice end to last year)

69 IP, 10.96 K/9, 4.17 era, 3.65 FIP, 3.76 FIP, 1.17 WHIP - 1.1 WAR

It's basically 5 innings a start which is fine. Those strikeouts and whip are going to catch him up to the FIP sooner rather than later.... and it's a SSS but the K/9 is 12.18 this year, 1.09 whip, x3.13 FIP. There is upside here on top of the last 14 starts. Massive upside. He is quietly on the verge of becoming a monster. Even if that's only over 5 innings.


Rogers and Cabrera both need to end strong as they have problems if they go with a standard 5 man rotation. I agree, Garret is going to win a spot if he does this 10 more starts and you can't not pitch Luzardo is what I mean to say above.

Problem with Luzardo is it's August and he's pitched 34 innings on the year, we need to see some sustained success.

[lou]

Problem with Luzardo is it's August and he's pitched 34 innings on the year, we need to see some sustained success.

Sure - stay healthy and throw 10 starts. Same as Garrett.

Those results are outstanding though. I'm very encouraged. Health is the only thing that stops him.

[fish16]

peyton burdick could be coming up for this series reportedly. if he does, keep him up, play him, bleday, sanchez, leblanc, lewin, and fortes every day the rest of the year. i don't care if they struggle, that's inevitable. but they need major league reps and the rest of the year does not matter at this point. His overall numbers don't look great but he's shown a lot of progress last few months. Low average, high OBP, good slugging OF prospect.

[Nick]

With Cabrera and Luzardo I think it's almost to the point that if they keep getting injured you have to start thinking about bullpen, to see if they can stay healthy that way.

[fish16]

didi gregorious released before his contract with the Phillies even expires. almost like signing a guy with those kinds of career numbers to big money was a stupid idea.

[lou]

didi gregorious released before his contract with the Phillies even expires. almost like signing a guy with those kinds of career numbers to big money was a stupid idea.

Sounds good. Not that it is apples to oranges, but I think it's a better idea to take swings on players who have shown huge upside (Didi 2015-2018) versus trading superstars under control for 5 years for prospects which sets you back 1-2 seasons. Especially when your payroll is bubkis and you're at the start of the rebuild.

Also just so you have more examples as no one bats 1.000:

-I thought Hermida was gonna be Brian Giles
-Joey Gathright would slap his way to 50 XBH with the speed making him a viable poor man's Pierre
-They should have signed BJ Upton whenever he was a free agent for $70m
-Would have taken Bleday over CJ Abrams every time
-Didn't hate the Garcia signing (though I wouldn't have done it)

[lou]

peyton burdick could be coming up for this series reportedly. if he does, keep him up, play him, bleday, sanchez, leblanc, lewin, and fortes every day the rest of the year. i don't care if they struggle, that's inevitable. but they need major league reps and the rest of the year does not matter at this point. His overall numbers don't look great but he's shown a lot of progress last few months. Low average, high OBP, good slugging OF prospect.

We agree!

[lou]

With Cabrera and Luzardo I think it's almost to the point that if they keep getting injured you have to start thinking about bullpen, to see if they can stay healthy that way.

This goes to getting a new school manager. Whoever the Rays would hire.

Sandy (210 innings)
Rogers - > Cabrera (250 combo innings)
Pablo (180 innings)
Luzardo - > Poteet (250 combo innings)
Garrett - > Neidert (250 combo innings)

Floro, Bender, Scott, Okert, and Bleier coming out of the bullpen (300 innings)

That is a full season of innings and really spreads everyone out

So let's make Rogers, Cabrera, Luzardo, and Garrett 2+ times through the lineup guys and they can all be stacked. Poteet/Neidert are effectively low end bulk relievers here. And Eury, Eder, and Sixto are coming for their jobs.


This doesn't solve CF, but this staff would be difficult to play against when healthy.

[fish16]

Sounds good. Not that it is apples to oranges, but I think it's a better idea to take swings on players who have shown huge upside (Didi 2015-2018) versus trading superstars under control for 5 years for prospects which sets you back 1-2 seasons. Especially when your payroll is bubkis and you're at the start of the rebuild.

Also just so you have more examples as no one bats 1.000:

-I thought Hermida was gonna be Brian Giles
-Joey Gathright would slap his way to 50 XBH with the speed making him a viable poor man's Pierre
-They should have signed BJ Upton whenever he was a free agent for $70m
-Would have taken Bleday over CJ Abrams every time
-Didn't hate the Garcia signing (though I wouldn't have done it)

haha I'm just messing around. i have a list of guys who are out of baseball who I thought would be faces of the franchise.

[lou]

haha I'm just messing around. i have a list of guys who are out of baseball who I thought would be faces of the franchise.

Hermida will forever haunt me. That's the one to mention if you want to stick a screwdiver into my stomach. But yes, let's see the kids and see what upgrades they do in the offseason.


It's going to be an identical offseason. Get the CF and get a TBD bat upgrade, likely at 1B or SS as Groshans/Berry scratches off 3B on paper you'd think, and Lewin and Nunez are not a very good immediate pipeline.

I'm frankly expecting this:

Fortes, Stallings
Rizzo ($16-17m x 3 years)
Jazz
Wendle, Rojas
Berti, Williams (Groshans looming and his path cleared)
Bleday, Sanchez
FV50 or better CF prospect
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers
Bender, Okert, Bleier, Poteet, Neidert, ____, _____

40 man bats - Henry, Groshans, Burdick, Leblanc/upgrade, DLC/upgrade, Johnston/upgrade
40 man arms - Sixto, Soriano, Nardi, Simpson, and guys acquired from trades

Cooper, Lewin (OOO so he gone), Anderson, Floro, and Scott traded, mostly for controllable RP, which is roughly $14m+ in contracts moved which effectively pay for Rizzo. Something like Salas/Fulton/Morisette/McCambley moved for the CF.

Top prospects still relatively strong with Eury, Meyer, Berry, Groshans, Eder, Cappe, Lewis, Watson, Mack, Nunez, Miller, Hernandez, etc.


I mention this as Rizzo, Jazz, and Sandy are definitely "faces" of both hometown hero and the new emerging stars. Call this $85m. It works for sure and Pablo need not be sacrificed. Then Eury/Eder/Berry/Meyer are looming hard for major 2024 roles.

[Nick]

Apparently sending down Jesus Sanchez to make room for Burdick. I don't know, maybe a reset in AAA will help him, but like, so that means we're going to be seeing a bunch more of De la Cruz and Hamilton? Call up Encarnacion and give Hamilton the boot, we don't need a fucking pinch-runner at this point. Mattingly can't be trusted to properly use the pinch runner anyway.

[Nick]

Brian Miller's not having a bad year at AAA, get him up here instead of Hamilton if you want some speed.

[lou]

Quick dive into CF that I am thinking here:

Arizona - Carroll, Thomas, or Varsho. Obviously Varsho is special as he can catch, but Carroll/Thomas are perfect if they can figure that out with some SP. Interestingly, they are all left handed so I'm wondering if SP (would be Eury for Carroll and likely Rogers/Cabrera and someone one else for Thomas) + Burdick in a swap makes some sense here for everyone. To note, Burdick is the 31st CF prospect on FG (Misner 29)

Dodgers - Pages. They may have a real 40 man crunch and may move on different options. The Marlins could trade them Salas here virtually straight up (Pages 74, Salas 81 on FG top 100) and Salas doesn't need 40 man protection. Maybe they get Cooper to help them for cheap for a year as a kicker, or Floro back, etc. This could be another Gallen-Jazz deal with throw ins. Pages is right handed so perfect with Bleday/Sanchez around. Of course, they may move on from Bellinger and Gallo, and then their OF is effectively Mookie, C. Taylor, ______. Pages may be a real fit for them, but hopefully they spend money on someone else so this is a possibility.

Twins - Martin. Is he a real CF? He is like Groshans, the slugging is non-existent but it's making a bet its coming with the BB/K. This is one of more uninspiring options even though I like him. Im not even sure he is MLB ready.

Pitt - Swaggerty. A cheap option trade, maybe for like Dax Fulton and pray. He is another Burdick level prospect so taking 2 bets here. And not great ones.

Oak - Laureano. The more expensive option.


Big picture, I think it's figure out how to get Arizona some pitching or swap non-40 identical prospects for Pages and make it worth their while. The Pablo trade could get triggered for Pages too, and they have other guys to make it work.

Past that, it's Laureano, Nimmo, or praying Bleday/Sanchez/Burdick is a thing.

[lou]

Apparently sending down Jesus Sanchez to make room for Burdick. I don't know, maybe a reset in AAA will help him, but like, so that means we're going to be seeing a bunch more of De la Cruz and Hamilton? Call up Encarnacion and give Hamilton the boot, we don't need a fucking pinch-runner at this point. Mattingly can't be trusted to properly use the pinch runner anyway.

100% on all of this.