2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

A combined .241/.313/.310 with 9 K in 27 AB is "picking it up"?

Soler went 4-12 with an .883 OPS in that incredibly small sample size of a series. That is clearly picking it up.

Garcia was still bad but looked better the last 2 games of the series and had a big hit. Still a bad .500 OPS but that was still somehow an improvement upon his numbers coming into the series and he 3 rbi's compared to the 1 he had the entire season coming into the series, plus a double and a SB. I still hate the signing but he seemed to be working through some sort of back injury and he's looked more comfortable the last couple of games.

[Todd]

Neither were good signings. Both are on pace for 1 WAR. Could they better it? Maybe. But both will likely end up being worth about half what they will be paid.

[fish16]

Neither were good signings. Both are on pace for 1 WAR. Could they better it? Maybe. But both will likely end up being worth about half what they will be paid.

soler I'm fine with. Garcia was terrible. But its way to early to start doing anything regarding "on pace for." It's been 15 games.

[lou]

both meyer and watson are around the 25 area by this point. My point was that the amount you were advocating giving up for reynolds was absurd. That was my only contention in our entire conversation back and forth. Im all for Laureano for that price. Im all for any really solid guy like that for a prospect depth trade. That was what I was saying all winter and spring. You just don't trade multiple young cost controlled top 25 or so prospects with star potential for guys who don't put you over the top and arent superstars like reynolds. my entire premise our entire debate back and forth for months was that you don't give up what you were willing to give up for a guy like reynolds, especially when you have great depth in the system to trade for a slightly lesser guy like a laureano. That's why i was advocating for giving up the farm like that for either Jose Ramirez or Buxton or find a lesser guy than Reynolds if the price was as astronomical as it was.

I'm also not sure why burdick cant be considered some sort of longterm CF if his bat is as good as it seems. He's played CF a lot in the minors with us, has been fairly decent, and he has above average speed to cover ground in CF. Not sure why you think our longterm CF has to be this specific model of defensive stalwart. If his bat is legit and he can be average at CF, that is more than enough. Is he a slightly better fit in a corner outfield spot? Sure. That doesn't mean he cant be a long term CF if his bat is as legit as it has played in the minors thus far in his career. And how do you square burdick not being a CF, yet you were willing to give up 2 of the best prospects in baseball for a guy like reynolds who is nothing special in CF himself?

No it wasn't absurd, and still isn't today.

No prospect in the Marlins system will likely ever match Reynolds 21 in a single season in their career. It's extremely unlikely.

Reynolds is a superstar who produced a 5.5 WAR and hit tool off the charts.

Again, the Marlins do not have a single top 25 prospect, let alone multiple, and also no one said the Reynolds trade was Watson and Meyer.

Playing CF and being a CF are different things.

Again, Watson and Meyer are not top 25 prospects, so trying to re-frame the argument they are some of the best prospects in baseball is wrong. They are very good but not Torkeslon, Rodriguez, or Rutschman. Likewise, no one was saying Watson and Meyer. Maybe Eury as a second one of the "big 4" as he is likely years away despite the AA promotion (and downgraded third player). And it's because Reynolds is a proven commodity and HITS. All along, the Reynolds idea is 2 years in CF to get by and get a longterm CF when he is forced to a corner.

The end result of everything is - they absolutely need a CF. You need two, and they may have a stopgap with Sanchez so we'll give them they have 1. It's injury redundancy in particular. Laureano seems like the best bet and would be TREMENDOUS. They'd instantly turn into one of the best defensive teams in baseball, and it's a massive upgrade versus LHP in particular.

This is the same story - they are going nowhere unless they start getting some RADICAL upgrades and Reynolds/Laureano fit that bill as the first big one with years of control. They probably need a second one somewhere but can wait to the deadline to see what happens.

[lou]

Neither were good signings. Both are on pace for 1 WAR. Could they better it? Maybe. But both will likely end up being worth about half what they will be paid.

It's a very small sample size. They will likely be fine.

I'm more concerned about Aguilar as Garcia/Soler still have dumb BABIPS but Aguilar is striking out 8% more than last year and doesn't have a BABIP correction coming. SSS, but the omens aren't good.

This goes back to as soon as they signed Soler, why wasn't Aguilar moved/DFA'd and that money used for something else? I don't think Garcia/Soler is the problem. They are upgrades on paper and don't make that much (even if it's a lot for the Marlins). Keeping Aguilar was the head scratcher. If he sucks, hopefully Lewin/Burdick keep lighting the world on fire so that's an easy swap. They gotta be able to get Laureano for Sixto/Eder, Bleday, Salas/Lewis, throw ins, and eating Piscotty money or something like that.

Maybe "your boy"(!) Hernandez gets shipped to them also in that deal and Meyer/Cabrera immediately called up to cohabitate 5th SP.

[Todd]

soler I'm fine with. Garcia was terrible. But its way to early to start doing anything regarding "on pace for." It's been 15 games.

I genuinely don't get what you see in Jorge Soler.

[lou]

I genuinely don't get what you see in Jorge Soler.

2019 in general

Post All-Star 2021 combined with horrific season long BABIP 50 points off his career rates. He was extremely unlucky last year, and set the world on fire for 200 PA to end the year (plus playoffs).

If you believe in those two things, he has top 15-20 overall OPS potential in baseball. Of course, there is downside, but he was a better signing dollar for dollar than Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rosario. You take Soler for 3/$36 all day with the potential he opts out and clears the books. He isn't the problem, creating the redundancy of Soler/Aguilar/Cooper for 2 spots, combined with Garcia in a corner OF spot, with Lewin, Bleday, and Burdick on the way and no CF, is the problem. This was an easy get rid of Aguilar decision and they missed that opportunity.

[Nick]

2019 in general

Post All-Star 2021 combined with horrific season long BABIP 50 points off his career rates. He was extremely unlucky last year, and set the world on fire for 200 PA to end the year (plus playoffs).

If you believe in those two things, he has top 15-20 overall OPS potential in baseball. Of course, there is downside, but he was a better signing dollar for dollar than Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rosario. You take Soler for 3/$36 all day with the potential he opts out and clears the books. He isn't the problem, creating the redundancy of Soler/Aguilar/Cooper for 2 spots, combined with Garcia in a corner OF spot, with Lewin, Bleday, and Burdick on the way and no CF, is the problem. This was an easy get rid of Aguilar decision and they missed that opportunity.

I think if we are signing guys to contracts in which we're hoping they opt out. That's a problem, and probably not a good way of handling Free Agency going forward.

[fish16]

It's a very small sample size. They will likely be fine.

I'm more concerned about Aguilar as Garcia/Soler still have dumb BABIPS but Aguilar is striking out 8% more than last year and doesn't have a BABIP correction coming. SSS, but the omens aren't good.

This goes back to as soon as they signed Soler, why wasn't Aguilar moved/DFA'd and that money used for something else? I don't think Garcia/Soler is the problem. They are upgrades on paper and don't make that much (even if it's a lot for the Marlins). Keeping Aguilar was the head scratcher. If he sucks, hopefully Lewin/Burdick keep lighting the world on fire so that's an easy swap. They gotta be able to get Laureano for Sixto/Eder, Bleday, Salas/Lewis, throw ins, and eating Piscotty money or something like that.

Maybe "your boy"(!) Hernandez gets shipped to them also in that deal and Meyer/Cabrera immediately called up to cohabitate 5th SP.

completely agree. Aguilar not only has been horrific this year to start, but last year the last few months he was quite literally the worst hitter from the DH and 1b spots in terms of power. and without power what exactly is he? He's slow, not great defensively, and without power if this is anywhere close to what he truly is at this point, he cant be starting.

[fish16]

No it wasn't absurd, and still isn't today.

No prospect in the Marlins system will likely ever match Reynolds 21 in a single season in their career. It's extremely unlikely.

Reynolds is a superstar who produced a 5.5 WAR and hit tool off the charts.

Again, the Marlins do not have a single top 25 prospect, let alone multiple, and also no one said the Reynolds trade was Watson and Meyer.

Playing CF and being a CF are different things.

Again, Watson and Meyer are not top 25 prospects, so trying to re-frame the argument they are some of the best prospects in baseball is wrong. They are very good but not Torkeslon, Rodriguez, or Rutschman. Likewise, no one was saying Watson and Meyer. Maybe Eury as a second one of the "big 4" as he is likely years away despite the AA promotion (and downgraded third player). And it's because Reynolds is a proven commodity and HITS. All along, the Reynolds idea is 2 years in CF to get by and get a longterm CF when he is forced to a corner.

The end result of everything is - they absolutely need a CF. You need two, and they may have a stopgap with Sanchez so we'll give them they have 1. It's injury redundancy in particular. Laureano seems like the best bet and would be TREMENDOUS. They'd instantly turn into one of the best defensive teams in baseball, and it's a massive upgrade versus LHP in particular.

This is the same story - they are going nowhere unless they start getting some RADICAL upgrades and Reynolds/Laureano fit that bill as the first big one with years of control. They probably need a second one somewhere but can wait to the deadline to see what happens.

both guys are borderline top 25 guys right now. Watson was literally 25 on mlb.coms list and Meyer was 34 with Cabrera at 33 on the preseason list. Both Waston and Meyer will easily be top 25 come the midseason lists with their play and with other graduations. And reynolds is just not a superstar. If that's what your argument is we can just feel free to disagree on an evaluation of a player. He's a really good hitter, he isn't worth multiple top prospects + quality lower level guys from a team in the situation of the marlins. They need to use their depth to acquire a quality CF like Laureano and keep the top guys in the system like eury, Watson, Meyer. Anyone else I'm fine with. I think if Cabrera gets healthy and starts performing again, he is the guy id trade along with maybe sixto (but he wont have any value due to the injuries). Cabrera has me a little worried as a potential mini sixto with the arm injuries he's had. None have been anything crazy serious, but the repeated minor arm injuries has me worried and if he has top SP value id move him and some more lower level guys for a bat before he has to be moved to the bullpen long term and that trade value decreases.

I do agree they likely need a CF long term given that Sanchez will likely continue to grow into his body and get even bigger, but Reynolds to me just isn't it given the fact that he is bad defensively in CF and the price it would take to get him. Sanchez has a legitimate shot to be a better hitter than him as soon as this year and if that's the case, why are we dealing multiple top prospects for a guy who is also a negative defensively in CF, costs 7 million this year and next plus a long term deal, and might already be a worse hitter than Sanchez. To me, Watson and Meyer should absolutely be out of the discussion for him. eury id probably avoid as well but i could be talked into dealing him given the price. Let alone 2 of those guys in any one deal plus more. You don't trade 12 combined years of Meyer and Watson, 6 of which would be at the league minimum and another 2 for very little, for a couple years of Reynolds at 7 million and then a long term extension of probably close to 20 million. For a team like the marlins that's nonsensical.

Also i believe you yourself have said that you would deal 2 of Meyer, Watson, and Eury for Reynolds. If you haven't then that's my mistake and we've been fighting over nothing, but to me Meyer and Watson are off limits individually let alone both, and that's my real main argument in all of this. You don't trade those guys unless it is for a legit superstar, and reynolds is not that moving forward. Even FanGraphs has him projected for just about 3 WAR this year. He is not a 6 war player. Is he a really good player? Yes. Is he a superstar? Absolutely not. Especially if he cant play CF.

Watson and Meyer are untouchable for me unless it is for that Buxton/Jose Ramirez type talent. Both have superstar potential with 6 years of team control. Obviously prospects are volatile, but they are dynamic, superstar level talents, and teams like the marlins who need that value for the dollar amount and have a ton of other quality depth prospects can acquire bats without giving away the potential faces of the franchise. If we didn't have the front office build the great depth they have the last few years it might be a different story, but my main point is that where we are as an organization and how valuable that surplus value will be for both of those guys in their team control years, you don't trade that when you have the depth to make a trade for a slightly lesser guy like Laureano.

[fish16]

I think if we are signing guys to contracts in which we're hoping they opt out. That's a problem, and probably not a good way of handling Free Agency going forward.

Soler at 12 million is fine even if he doesn't opt out. If he does opt out it means we got a good year out of him and he can cash in elsewhere and that's fine. there are always those types of mashing, limited defensively corner outfield/DH type guys available every year. Id much rather sign him to a deal where we hope he opts out than go for guys like Schwarber or Castellanos for 20 million over 5 years. It's a no brainer in terms of production per dollar spent, which is essentially the main metric teams like us with no money need to be focusing on.

[fish16]

Also, screw the super 2 stuff, as long as we get the extra year from Meyer that's my main focus. The second that is no longer in question he needs to be up here and replace Elieser. A rotation of Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Luzardo, and Meyer is ridiculous and if our offense is merely average that could keep us in it and come near deadline time they would hopefully go all in for at least a shutdown reliever and maybe another bat depending on the price. Or maybe your bullpen additions come from within from Sixto getting healthy and Cabrera being eased in, but I wouldn't love to count on that. Ideally you have that but you also bring in a dependable closer who you can really count on to perform.

[lou]

I think if we are signing guys to contracts in which we're hoping they opt out. That's a problem, and probably not a good way of handling Free Agency going forward.

I don't think the Soler deal is a pattern here and is not a big deal. I honestly hope he opts out because it means he was awesome. Fish16 is right - this is only good problems and DH mashers are available.

[lou]

Also, screw the super 2 stuff, as long as we get the extra year from Meyer that's my main focus. The second that is no longer in question he needs to be up here and replace Elieser. A rotation of Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Luzardo, and Meyer is ridiculous and if our offense is merely average that could keep us in it and come near deadline time they would hopefully go all in for at least a shutdown reliever and maybe another bat depending on the price. Or maybe your bullpen additions come from within from Sixto getting healthy and Cabrera being eased in, but I wouldn't love to count on that. Ideally you have that but you also bring in a dependable closer who you can really count on to perform.

That date has passed - he can come up whenever and he'll just get a 4th arbitration year.

I agree - call him up and get him 125 innings. Space him out over 30+ appearances to get there. Start with 1 time through the order, and hopefully he is effective to go 5+ come August/September.

I'm glad you are thinking LET'S WIN NOW with this, and putting Cabrera in the bullpen too which is a DUH move when healthy. He should absolutely be on the Johan Santana plan as mentioned and I got yelled at about. It's a no-brainer. He can get 125 innings in the bigs too on a similar plan. They do get another year waiting to June so maybe he can stay down for 6 more weeks or so as they have suitable extra relievers (Poteet).

They don't need arms or a "closer." This is an ELITE staff.

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer
Floro, Bender, Sulser, Bass, Cabrera, Hernandez
Bleier, Scott, Okert

AAA = Sixto (is he healthy?), Pop, Head, Poteet, Holloway < - Straight up, if this is your 9th-13th arms in the bullpen you are fine as an organization, let alone these guys are 14-18 for the Marlins right now which is sick.

Trade Sixto in the Laureano package too.

[lou]

both guys are borderline top 25 guys right now. Watson was literally 25 on mlb.coms list and Meyer was 34 with Cabrera at 33 on the preseason list. Both Waston and Meyer will easily be top 25 come the midseason lists with their play and with other graduations. And reynolds is just not a superstar. If that's what your argument is we can just feel free to disagree on an evaluation of a player. He's a really good hitter, he isn't worth multiple top prospects + quality lower level guys from a team in the situation of the marlins. They need to use their depth to acquire a quality CF like Laureano and keep the top guys in the system like eury, Watson, Meyer. Anyone else I'm fine with. I think if Cabrera gets healthy and starts performing again, he is the guy id trade along with maybe sixto (but he wont have any value due to the injuries). Cabrera has me a little worried as a potential mini sixto with the arm injuries he's had. None have been anything crazy serious, but the repeated minor arm injuries has me worried and if he has top SP value id move him and some more lower level guys for a bat before he has to be moved to the bullpen long term and that trade value decreases.

I do agree they likely need a CF long term given that Sanchez will likely continue to grow into his body and get even bigger, but Reynolds to me just isn't it given the fact that he is bad defensively in CF and the price it would take to get him. Sanchez has a legitimate shot to be a better hitter than him as soon as this year and if that's the case, why are we dealing multiple top prospects for a guy who is also a negative defensively in CF, costs 7 million this year and next plus a long term deal, and might already be a worse hitter than Sanchez. To me, Watson and Meyer should absolutely be out of the discussion for him. eury id probably avoid as well but i could be talked into dealing him given the price. Let alone 2 of those guys in any one deal plus more. You don't trade 12 combined years of Meyer and Watson, 6 of which would be at the league minimum and another 2 for very little, for a couple years of Reynolds at 7 million and then a long term extension of probably close to 20 million. For a team like the marlins that's nonsensical.

Also i believe you yourself have said that you would deal 2 of Meyer, Watson, and Eury for Reynolds. If you haven't then that's my mistake and we've been fighting over nothing, but to me Meyer and Watson are off limits individually let alone both, and that's my real main argument in all of this. You don't trade those guys unless it is for a legit superstar, and reynolds is not that moving forward. Even FanGraphs has him projected for just about 3 WAR this year. He is not a 6 war player. Is he a really good player? Yes. Is he a superstar? Absolutely not. Especially if he cant play CF.

Watson and Meyer are untouchable for me unless it is for that Buxton/Jose Ramirez type talent. Both have superstar potential with 6 years of team control. Obviously prospects are volatile, but they are dynamic, superstar level talents, and teams like the marlins who need that value for the dollar amount and have a ton of other quality depth prospects can acquire bats without giving away the potential faces of the franchise. If we didn't have the front office build the great depth they have the last few years it might be a different story, but my main point is that where we are as an organization and how valuable that surplus value will be for both of those guys in their team control years, you don't trade that when you have the depth to make a trade for a slightly lesser guy like Laureano.

MLB is the worst list.

The only seasons in Marlins history better than Reynolds 2021 are as follows:

Stanton 2017
Fernandez 2016
Stanton 2014
Hanley 2009
Hanley 2008
Cabrera 2006
Dontrelle 2005
Floyd 2001
Brown 1997
Sheffield 1996
Brown 1996

Look at that list and names. That's how good Bryan Reynolds is and his upside. You can't just dismiss this.

Saying Sanchez is going to be better than him? LAUGH. Sanchez will never have a 6.1 WAR season like Reynolds did last year. What in the hell is going on?

Again no one is saying Meyer and Watson, except Pittsburghs front office. The deals in my head were Watson, Sixto, Bleday/Burdick, or Meyer/Cabrera, Cabrera/Eury, Bleday/Burdick. Neither is necessarily a bad idea, but I'd move the pitchers as more volatile and injury prone. You absolutely accept the lower CF defense, for the hitting upside (and better LF defense).

That being said, I don't disagree "buying low" on Laureano is likely a better idea. I also think Austin Hays is a sneaky get. Both would be great if they don't trade a top 4 system prospect.

Cabrera is bigger than Sixto, he isn't going to have the same conditioning problems of the shorter build.