2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

grant dayton was pretty electric out of jacksonvilles bullpen last night. he will be up here and contributing before too long.

[Lee Stone]

Dayton was great ... as was the portly Zabala. Bullpen is going to use all these guys sooner than later.

[fish16]

Dayton was great ... as was the portly Zabala. Bullpen is going to use all these guys sooner than later.

terrific use of the word portly.

[fish16]

Brian anderson not in the lineup at all opening day.

Soler- LF
Cooper- DH
Sanchez- CF
Aguilar- 1b
Garcia- RF
Wendle- 3b
Rojas- SS
Stallings- C
Jazz- 2b

We're gonna at least have 1 really good bat off the bench every day at least. Whether it's cooper, wendle, or BA. having the DH instead of 1/9 of the lineup being useless guaranteed is going to help a lot and if they stay healthy the offense will be much improved just due to sheer competence 1-9 in the lineup. No glaring black holes like Brinson, Diaz, or retreads like Leon, Alfaro, Dickerson. But staying healthy is a huge question mark with some of the guys. No stars unless Soler brings his form back from a few years ago, but that's a quality lineup 1-9. If they can stay healthy, that should be enough to be middle of the pack and let the pitching carry us to contention.

[fish16]

Seems like a change for Donnie to construct the lineup without regard for old school baseball traditions like the speedy leadoff guy. Love that he is getting his best bats the most at bats, and letting jazz act as a de facto leadoff sparkplug type from the 9 spot when the lineup resets.

[lou]

Brian anderson not in the lineup at all opening day.

Soler- LF
Cooper- DH
Sanchez- CF
Aguilar- 1b
Garcia- RF
Wendle- 3b
Rojas- SS
Stallings- C
Jazz- 2b

We're gonna at least have 1 really good bat off the bench every day at least. Whether it's cooper, wendle, or BA. having the DH instead of 1/9 of the lineup being useless guaranteed is going to help a lot and if they stay healthy the offense will be much improved just due to sheer competence 1-9 in the lineup. No glaring black holes like Brinson, Diaz, or retreads like Leon, Alfaro, Dickerson. But staying healthy is a huge question mark with some of the guys. No stars unless Soler brings his form back from a few years ago, but that's a quality lineup 1-9. If they can stay healthy, that should be enough to be middle of the pack and let the pitching carry us to contention.

There is a glaring black hole of defense in LF (especially) and CF (very probably) with this lineup, and Rojas doesn't hit RHP much but that's minor with the defense. It's not perfect. It could have been with this star bat you mention though......which is a CF... and then getting Wendle some time at SS and Anderson 3B which is a better alignment for hitting and defense. However, this lineup is pretty solid offensively and going to hit RHP pretty hard. They should bat the bottom four Jazz, Wendle, Stallings, and Rojas though. Jazz 9 is stupid. Rojas is their worst hitter vs RHP for sure and put Jazz in a position to have more guys on base. Stallings actually had a great platoon split last year (.750 RHP / .600 LHP) so if Henry hits lefties a little, they are in major business.

LHP though... you're swapping in BA for Wendle... and now you have really big offensive question marks with Sanchez (unknown and a lefty), Jazz (unknown and a lefty, Wendle stinks vs LHP), Stallings (.600 OPS.... maybe Henry is good), and Anderson (.700 OPS), and nothing on the bench unless DLC can hit (.380 BABIP). With the continued defensive issues in LF/CF. This is where a star CF who hits lefties (Reynolds and Laureano) comes into play, as that solves the defense and gives another stick to presumably shade Sanchez a little. They are likely well below average versus LHP starters until they get another bat unless Jazz/Sanchez/Anderson are a revelation.

Also, EVERYONE improves health and competence with the DH so there is no improvement here. It's equal for all NL teams.

Contention is 5+ wins minimum away. We'll see if every breakout happens.

[fish16]

There is a glaring black hole of defense in LF (especially) and CF (very probably) with this lineup, and Rojas doesn't hit RHP much but that's minor with the defense. It's not perfect. It could have been with this star bat you mention though......which is a CF... and then getting Wendle some time at SS and Anderson 3B which is a better alignment for hitting and defense. However, this lineup is pretty solid offensively and going to hit RHP pretty hard. They should bat the bottom four Jazz, Wendle, Stallings, and Rojas though. Jazz 9 is stupid. Rojas is their worst hitter vs RHP for sure and put Jazz in a position to have more guys on base. Stallings actually had a great platoon split last year (.750 RHP / .600 LHP) so if Henry hits lefties a little, they are in major business.

LHP though... you're swapping in BA for Wendle... and now you have really big offensive question marks with Sanchez (unknown and a lefty), Jazz (unknown and a lefty, Wendle stinks vs LHP), Stallings (.600 OPS.... maybe Henry is good), and Anderson (.700 OPS), and nothing on the bench unless DLC can hit (.380 BABIP). With the continued defensive issues in LF/CF. This is where a star CF who hits lefties (Reynolds and Laureano) comes into play, as that solves the defense and gives another stick to presumably shade Sanchez a little. They are likely well below average versus LHP starters until they get another bat unless Jazz/Sanchez/Anderson are a revelation.

Also, EVERYONE improves health and competence with the DH so there is no improvement here. It's equal for all NL teams.

Contention is 5+ wins minimum away. We'll see if every breakout happens.

Obviously the DH is universal now in the NL, my point is that the benefit of having the DH is huge for us as an overall offense, just like it was 2 years ago. Every little bit of extra offense we can muster with our pitching being as good or even better than last year will reap benefits on our record. Our pitchers last year had 256 AB's for an OPS of .191, which was by far the worst out of any NL team. Getting rid of that black hole in the lineup itself will do a lot for the overall improvement of our offense to get rid of that for 500 ab's for Soler/Cooper. That's a several WAR offensive improvement by itself. Add in Wendle, Garcia, improvements from Sanchez and Jazz, and then a healthy year at 3b from the combo of Anderson and Wendle and you have a much improved offense as a whole, even without a star. Mere competence can go a long way if the alternative was guys like Panik, Sandy Leon, Sierra, Isan Diaz, Brinson, Alfaro, etc. Is it enough to let the pitching carry us to contention? That's where we disagree and that's what we will find out over the next 6 months. They need to stay healthy though.

[lou]

Obviously the DH is universal now in the NL, my point is that the benefit of having the DH is huge for us as an overall offense, just like it was 2 years ago. Every little bit of extra offense we can muster with our pitching being as good or even better than last year will reap benefits on our record. Our pitchers last year had 256 AB's for an OPS of .191, which was by far the worst out of any NL team. Getting rid of that black hole in the lineup itself will do a lot for the overall improvement of our offense to get rid of that for 500 ab's for Soler/Cooper. That's a several WAR offensive improvement by itself. Add in Wendle, Garcia, improvements from Sanchez and Jazz, and then a healthy year at 3b from the combo of Anderson and Wendle and you have a much improved offense as a whole, even without a star. Is it enough to let the pitching carry us to contention? That's where we disagree and that's what we will find out over the next 6 months. They need to stay healthy though.

Which every team receives so I fail to see a point how the Marlins derive any advantage or improvement when every team gets the DH.

They won 67 games last year. They will be much improved and win 80. They need to get an extra 5+ wins from projections from Jazz, Sanchez, Luzardo, Soler-2019 rates, pick a random career year explosion from anyone else, and inevitably get a CF at the deadline to make up the rest. Plus likely 150+ innings from Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, and maybe Eury is that special come August. They need A LOT to happen to have a CHANCE.

[fish16]

Which every team receives so I fail to see a point how the Marlins derive any advantage or improvement when every team gets the DH.

They won 67 games last year. They will be much improved and win 80. They need to get an extra 5+ wins from projections from Jazz, Sanchez, Luzardo, Soler-2019 rates, pick a random career year explosion from anyone else, and inevitably get a CF at the deadline to make up the rest. Plus likely 150+ innings from Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, and maybe Eury is that special come August. They need A LOT to happen to have a CHANCE.

Teams who had shit offenses and great pitching will feel the benefit more from having that extra 12.5% part of their lineup as competent hitters. Obviously every team has those extra ab's from the DH as opposed to the pitcher so you're right it does impact every teams offense. I just think it helps teams like us who have some of the best pitching in the league and a shit offense last year more as an overall team. And depending on which version of Soler we get, our DH situation is really solid.

[Todd]

Soler has had one good season and has been replacement level or below the rest of his career. There aren't really "versions. He was below replacement level last year and the Marlins foolishly bought high on him after an inexplicable postseason.

I also think "great" is a stretch in regards to Marlins pitching. Pablo has issues. This board overrates Alcantra. Trevor Rogers could have a sophomore slump. Luzardo has potential but has been nothing short of awful his entire MLB career. Cabrera has not had a season as a starter in MLB. Elesier Hernandez simply just isn't good and really who knows with Sixto. Bullpens are always volatile.

[fish16]

Soler has had one good season and has been replacement level or below the rest of his career. There aren't really "versions. He was below replacement level last year and the Marlins foolishly bought high on him after an inexplicable postseason.

I also think "great" is a stretch in regards to Marlins pitching. Pablo has issues. This board overrates Alcantra. Trevor Rogers could have a sophomore slump. Luzardo has potential but has been nothing short of awful his entire MLB career. Cabrera has not had a season as a starter in MLB. Elesier Hernandez simply just isn't good and really who knows with Sixto. Bullpens are always volatile.

was it you who said sandy was a #5 or something like that last year?

[fish16]

Soler also hasnt been replacement level or worse all but 1 year. He had a 3.6 WAR in 2019, .6 in 43 games in 2020 (extrapolated to say 2 WAR over 162), .9 in 61 games in 2018 (extrapolated to lets say 2-2.5 WAR), and he had positive WAR in his first 3 years with the Cubs as a part time player who had injury issues. When he's been healthy he has been a very above average hitter with 1 year where he was unbelievable. As a DH, that's a really good player. hopefully they play him at DH almost every day. for his career his wrc+ is 111 and same with his ops+. He's a really good hitter

[Todd]

was it you who said sandy was a #5 or something like that last year?

I might have been wrong. I still don't think he is an ace. He is a decent 2 to good 3rd starter.

[lou]

I might have been wrong. I still don't think he is an ace. He is a decent 2 to good 3rd starter.

Given the lack of innings across MLB (which is HUGE), given his age and contract, given he isn't a tiny dude who may break down easier (like Urias/Peralta), given he underachieved in Ks last year from his strike rates and threw to Alfaro who isn't exactly great even if he's OK, so improvement is anticipated..... I think it's very hard to say Sandy isn't a top 5 SP in baseball. Maybe top 3. After Buehler and Burnes, I'm not sure who else you'd take for the next 5 seasons. Seriously who? Giolito maybe? Flaherty gets hurt? Woodruff, Nola, and Castillo are a little older and likely more volatile? I think it's Sandy at # 3.

The rest sure. Pablo gets hurt. Rogers soph slump may put him into mid 3 era land (still very good?.... he is probably top 15 most valuable SP in baseball right now BTW), Luzardo is all upside, and Hernandez is better than you think but still likely a 4, but also gets hurt. Meyer and Cabrera are unknowns. A lot can go wrong here, but even if all these guys throw 125 innings, they are likely a very good 125 innings. The pitching should be fine.

They need 5+ wins in the field. Specifically in 1 place. Beating the dead horse.

[Lee Stone]

Hey, let's bat Jazz Chisholm ninth so the Giants will have to face him less than any other Marlin hitter!