2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

competing = making the playoffs as far as I’m concerned (especially with the 2022 expanded playoffs).

According to Fangraphs, the Marlins have a 23.1% chance of competing this year as constructed.

there’s still a week to make a move (with options dwindling fast) but at this point in the rebuild (with the assets we have) we should be more like 40% to make the playoffs at the bottom end.

Yes you have to play to win games in year FIVE of a rebuild.

You can't just keep kicking the can trying to make a one-sided trade and preserve effectively 9 top 100-125 prospects, five of which are pitchers, when you already have a full rotation at the big league level with two aces. Plus others like Fulton, McCambley, and Poteet after that.

There is a business aspect of this also - all of their "fans" are pissed besides fish16. Every one of them. They need to make a move to show a commitment - the Jayson Werth splurge.

[rmc523]

Yes you have to play to win games in year FIVE of a rebuild.

You can't just keep kicking the can trying to make a one-sided trade and preserve effectively 9 top 100-125 prospects, five of which are pitchers, when you already have a full rotation at the big league level with two aces. Plus others like Fulton, McCambley, and Poteet after that.

There is a business aspect of this also - all of their "fans" are pissed besides fish16. Every one of them. They need to make a move to show a commitment - the Jayson Werth splurge.

They unfortunately already missed the opportunity for that.

[Lee Stone]

Austin Dean! Homer off Kimbrell today ... his second of spring.

[Todd]

He's a nice guy and his wife hit Jeter with a door.

[fish16]

we got tanner scott and cole sulser from the orioles. There is your closer and relief depth that was clear they would get before opening day. sulser was great last year and has 4 years of team control. great move.

[lou]

we got tanner scott and cole sulser from the orioles. There is your closer and relief depth that was clear they would get before opening day. sulser was great last year and has 4 years of team control. great move.

The trade is this:

Antonio Velez, Kevin Guerrero, PTBNL, Competitive Balance Round B (late 2nd rounder I believe), Never hearing Lee talk about Velez again
for
Scott (3 years of control) and Sulser (4 years of control).

Scott seems like a pitch mix/control project. They have done well with those sorts of arms recently and god willingly Sulser figured it out last year. The price is right here. Big picture, this is like a top 18-22 prospect (the comp pick), Velez (top 25-30), Guerrero (don't know much, I'll assume in the 30s), and PTBNL. I am a little weary the PTBNL may be pretty good as this seems a little light... but we'll see. As long as it's not a top 20 prospect this works for me.

Bender, Floro, Sulser, Pop, Bass.... with Armstrong and Head the Floro-DL and expanded roster additions for now
Bleier, Scott, Okert

I like it. Although I am a bit disheartened Mullins or Hays isn't coming back

[sports24/7]

It’s a good sign that they’re still trying to make the team whole before the season starts. This feels like a good move, assuming the PTBNL isn’t anything great. Now go get a good CF and all is forgiven.

[lou]

It’s a good sign that they’re still trying to make the team whole before the season starts. This feels like a good move, assuming the PTBNL isn’t anything great. Now go get a good CF and all is forgiven.

The pick is #67, so late 2nd. It's probably the most valuable asset unless that PTBNL is a top 20 guy in the system.

This seems light to me for a reliever who was awesome last year (even if older), and Scott is certainly all arm and pray it keeps together. His career FIP and xFIP is 4.00 and 3.68 and has paced as a .5+ WAR bullpen arm per season for his career. Baltimore fans seem a little sad about Sulser and do not care about Scott.

These prospects are not much. Not sure what Baltimore is doing here. Sulser makes it to the deadline and Scott gets ANY control and they get a lot more in June. This seems smart on paper.

[lou]

Neidert DFA to make room

[Lee Stone]

The pick is #67, so late 2nd. It's probably the most valuable asset unless that PTBNL is a top 20 guy in the system.

This seems light to me for a reliever who was awesome last year (even if older), and Scott is certainly all arm and pray it keeps together. His career FIP and xFIP is 4.00 and 3.68 and has paced as a .5+ WAR bullpen arm per season for his career. Baltimore fans seem a little sad about Sulser and do not care about Scott.

These prospects are not much. Not sure what Baltimore is doing here. Sulser makes it to the deadline and Scott gets ANY control and they get a lot more in June. This seems smart on paper.

Antonio Velez is not much? How could he be more? He gave up ONE run over his last five or six starts last year. As soon as I saw that there was a trade, I knew the Marlins had been taken behind the woodshed still again.

Velez should have started this year in AAA and joined the big league club sooner than later. Velez, Myer, Perez and Cabrera were the top mound prospects on my list.

More on Velez: Baseball America credited Velez as having the best changeup and best control of any pitcher in the Marlins’ farm system, which is no small achievement given all of the high-profile young arms in Miami’s minor league ranks. In addition to that quality changeup, Velez’s “low-90s fastball is amplified by vertical break that borders on double-plus.

Here's how this GM would have tackled the pitching staff problems: San Diego just acquired Sean Manaea from Oakland for a couple prospects (numbers 12 and 26 on their prospect list), a package that Miami could have bettered in a heartbeat. Add Manaea. John Means is the pitcher that the Marlins should have obtained from Baltimore ... again, an easy grab with Bleday and Fulton in the package. Now we're looking at a 10-man tag team rotation of Alcantara/Poteet, Rogers/Cabrera, Lopez/Manaea, Hernandez/Means, and Luzardo/Meyer. On most days, you get 8 or 9 innings from those tandems and keep them all to 80 or less pitches. Screw the bullpen. Now you are a dangerous team! As it is, we're looking at 4-5 innings from our starter each day and then a clusterfuck in the 10-man bullpen that is one of the very worst in baseball. How do you win 82 games that way? Looks more like 60 games to me.

(Refining my 10-man rotation, I'd use Elieser as a 3-inning opener for Alcantara, who would finish the game. I'd also use Poteet as an opener for Rogers. The rest would go Cabrera/Means, Lopez/Manaea, and Luzardo/Meyer. That's the ticket!)

[Namaste]

competing = making the playoffs as far as I’m concerned (especially with the 2022 expanded playoffs).

According to Fangraphs, the Marlins have a 23.1% chance of competing this year as constructed.

there’s still a week to make a move (with options dwindling fast) but at this point in the rebuild (with the assets we have) we should be more like 40% to make the playoffs at the bottom end.

Fangraphs jumps Marlins up to 29.1% from 23.1% after they trade for Sulser.

[lou]

Antonio Velez is not much? How could he be more? He gave up ONE run over his last five or six starts last year. As soon as I saw that there was a trade, I knew the Marlins had been taken behind the woodshed still again.

Velez should have started this year in AAA and joined the big league club sooner than later. Velez, Myer, Perez and Cabrera were the top mound prospects on my list.

More on Velez: Baseball America credited Velez as having the best changeup and best control of any pitcher in the Marlins’ farm system, which is no small achievement given all of the high-profile young arms in Miami’s minor league ranks. In addition to that quality changeup, Velez’s “low-90s fastball is amplified by vertical break that borders on double-plus.

Here's how this GM would have tackled the pitching staff problems: San Diego just acquired Sean Manaea from Oakland for a couple prospects (numbers 12 and 26 on their prospect list), a package that Miami could have bettered in a heartbeat. Add Manaea. John Means is the pitcher that the Marlins should have obtained from Baltimore ... again, an easy grab with Bleday and Fulton in the package. Now we're looking at a 10-man tag team rotation of Alcantara/Poteet, Rogers/Cabrera, Lopez/Manaea, Hernandez/Means, and Luzardo/Meyer. On most days, you get 8 or 9 innings from those tandems and keep them all to 80 or less pitches. Screw the bullpen. Now you are a dangerous team! As it is, we're looking at 4-5 innings from our starter each day and then a clusterfuck in the 10-man bullpen that is one of the very worst in baseball. How do you win 82 games that way? Looks more like 60 games to me.

(Refining my 10-man rotation, I'd use Elieser as a 3-inning opener for Alcantara, who would finish the game. I'd also use Poteet as an opener for Rogers. The rest would go Cabrera/Means, Lopez/Manaea, and Luzardo/Meyer. That's the ticket!)

The only time the Marlins were taken behind the woodshed this regime is Yelich, and I'm going to say an Antonio Velez trade and outside top 25 prospect trade versus Sulser/Scott isn't going to rise to the level of the Marlins lighting 20-25 WAR on fire. As long as the PTBNL is outside the Marlins top 20 this is fine.

I appreciate the progressive ideas on a pitching staff however. I don't think that permutation works per se, but the idea of 3-4 180+ IP SP / 4-5 100-120 IP bulk relievers / 5 bullpen arms I think is a smarter model unless you can throw out all # 3 SP or better. The Marlins may get there in a year, but not yet. I suppose we'll see if they decide to put the foot on the gas and call up Cabrera, Meyer, and Sixto in mid-June. If some aren't moved as they still really need a CF.

[lou]

Fangraphs jumps Marlins up to 29.1% from 23.1% after they trade for Sulser.

It's probably a win on paper. It's replacing 100+ innings from Head, Armstrong, Poteet, and Garrett effectively

[fish16]

Antonio Velez is not much? How could he be more? He gave up ONE run over his last five or six starts last year. As soon as I saw that there was a trade, I knew the Marlins had been taken behind the woodshed still again.

Velez should have started this year in AAA and joined the big league club sooner than later. Velez, Myer, Perez and Cabrera were the top mound prospects on my list.

More on Velez: Baseball America credited Velez as having the best changeup and best control of any pitcher in the Marlins’ farm system, which is no small achievement given all of the high-profile young arms in Miami’s minor league ranks. In addition to that quality changeup, Velez’s “low-90s fastball is amplified by vertical break that borders on double-plus.

Here's how this GM would have tackled the pitching staff problems: San Diego just acquired Sean Manaea from Oakland for a couple prospects (numbers 12 and 26 on their prospect list), a package that Miami could have bettered in a heartbeat. Add Manaea. John Means is the pitcher that the Marlins should have obtained from Baltimore ... again, an easy grab with Bleday and Fulton in the package. Now we're looking at a 10-man tag team rotation of Alcantara/Poteet, Rogers/Cabrera, Lopez/Manaea, Hernandez/Means, and Luzardo/Meyer. On most days, you get 8 or 9 innings from those tandems and keep them all to 80 or less pitches. Screw the bullpen. Now you are a dangerous team! As it is, we're looking at 4-5 innings from our starter each day and then a clusterfuck in the 10-man bullpen that is one of the very worst in baseball. How do you win 82 games that way? Looks more like 60 games to me.

(Refining my 10-man rotation, I'd use Elieser as a 3-inning opener for Alcantara, who would finish the game. I'd also use Poteet as an opener for Rogers. The rest would go Cabrera/Means, Lopez/Manaea, and Luzardo/Meyer. That's the ticket!)

how is it possible you never learn from the same player evaluation mistake? You consistently fall in love with non prospects who put up numbers against guys who are significantly younger than them. How is ben meyer's career going?

[fish16]

not sure why neidert was the guy to get DFA'd. Alex Jackson, castano and paul Campbell were better choices but they will end up dealing him for a minor prospect or maybe another bullpen arm from a team with a roster crunch or who wants to take a flier on neidert as a back end of the rotation guy.