2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

FWIW, earlier this month Mish said Eury Perez is essentially untouchable, and off limits in any deal. He said "In almost 3 decades of Marlins baseball there may not be a more highly thought of young pitcher". And he said that includes Josh Beckett and Jose Fernandez. Now, we've previously heard they believe Lewin Diaz was going to be a major star, so maybe they just don't know what they're talking about. But nonetheless, he's been pretty adamant that Perez will not be included in any deal.

I remember, but I think it is posturing. He makes the most sense to trade. He is the furthest away, can't help now, and may never have more value. I view these comments as.... Meyer and Cabrera can throw 200 innings at the MLB level this year and we need that.

Any prospect can turn into a stud. There will always be risk. We'll see. They need to trade for a CF.

Ironically, FG doesn't think it's a disaster - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-pos...-center-field/. So maybe we are all schmucks and Sanchez and Garcia can do it. Count me in for the UNDER on the WAR projection.

[Lee Stone]

Some (many?) may disagree, but the Soler signing mucked things up IMO. Laureano, Sanchez and Garcia would have been a much better OF than what we are looking at.

[lou]

Some (many?) may disagree, but the Soler signing mucked things up IMO. Laureano, Sanchez and Garcia would have been a much better OF than what we are looking at.

Well I mean yea but Laureano isn't a FA.

The problem with Soler is - Soler, Cooper, and Aguilar. You only need 2 of them. If Soler is deemed an upgrade (which is probably right on their part), one of Cooper or Aguilar should go. Trade them for a RP upgrade, and do a Reynolds/Laureno trade

[fish16]

Laureano has 3 years of control. He has 3.014 days of service time.

You are dramatically over valuing the Marlins prospects. That is all this is.

my bad i was thinking of Montas and Manaea who have 2 and 1 year left, but I'm not overvaluing the marlins. Watson, Meyer, and Eury should be untouchable. They have more than enough depth in the system to get it done. that's all I'm saying. As a small market team those surefire studs who haven't used any of their team control are super valuable assets. We have more than enough depth to do a 5 for 1 if need be with guys like fulton, Mccambley, Lewis, Salas, Bleday/Burdick, etc. than to use their best assets in the system. Reynolds would be one thing, but I just wouldn't give up any of those top 3 guys for laureano. He's a really good player, I'm just not giving up on 6 years of team control for 2 of the best prospect arms in baseball and a soon to be top 10 prospect in all of baseball for a guy like Laureano. Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis, McCambley/Fulton, and then 2 more quality depth prospects is all I would do. CF defensively might be a disaster, but if BA is healthy, I think the lineup will be passable enough with the pitching they have to compete. I don't want to trade future stars on this team. Meyer and Eury are surefire future studs to me, and I think Watson will be the next big prospect in baseball after he performs this year, unless I'm getting a superstar, game changing talent under control for a long time, I'm not dealing that. IF that means going into the year with a clear hole in CF defensively, so be it.

[lou]

my bad i was thinking of Montas and Manaea who have 2 and 1 year left, but I'm not overvaluing the marlins. Watson, Meyer, and Eury should be untouchable. They have more than enough depth in the system to get it done. that's all I'm saying. As a small market team those surefire studs who haven't used any of their team control are super valuable assets. We have more than enough depth to do a 5 for 1 if need be with guys like fulton, Mccambley, Lewis, Salas, Bleday/Burdick, etc. than to use their best assets in the system. Reynolds would be one thing, but I just wouldn't give up any of those top 3 guys for laureano. He's a really good player, I'm just not giving up on 6 years of team control for 2 of the best prospect arms in baseball and a soon to be top 10 prospect in all of baseball for a guy like Laureano. Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis, McCambley/Fulton, and then 2 more quality depth prospects is all I would do. CF defensively might be a disaster, but if BA is healthy, I think the lineup will be passable enough with the pitching they have to compete. I don't want to trade future stars on this team. Meyer and Eury are surefire future studs to me, and I think Watson will be the next big prospect in baseball after he performs this year, unless I'm getting a superstar, game changing talent under control for a long time, I'm not dealing that. IF that means going into the year with a clear hole in CF defensively, so be it.

The problem with your 5-1 is you can't cobble together a package and avoid trading future stars for an existing star. You gotta move Maybin/Miller (top 10 prospects), Brinson (top 30 prospect), and Hanley (forget ranking, top top prospect obviously) for Cabrera, Yelich, or Beckett. You may disagree on Reynolds/Laureano value, but their existing teams view them as 4+ WAR players controlled for years and the stats back it up. They are going to have to part with at least two of Watson/Meyer/Eury/Cabrera for Reynolds, and at least 1 for Laureano, and one of Bleday/Burdick being on top of this. Watson, Eury, and Meyer are not top 10 prospects. They are top 40-60 prospects.

Would you do this. I am curious.

T. Rogers..... and something like
DLC/Jerar
Fitterer/Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm
Soriano/Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm
Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm

for

Reynolds
Bednar
Thompson


Rogers is sacrificed which is mind blowing, but you make those innings up with Bednar and Thompson. Rogers is worth more than Reynolds, so that's how you get those two and the Pirates get three swings to replace the arms plus a potential bench OF. Maybe McCambley has to be in there, but still.

Would you do that?

[fish16]

The problem with your 5-1 is you can't cobble together a package and avoid trading future stars for an existing star. You gotta move Maybin/Miller (top 10 prospects), Brinson (top 30 prospect), and Hanley (forget ranking, top top prospect obviously) for Cabrera, Yelich, or Beckett. You may disagree on Reynolds/Laureano value, but their existing teams view them as 4+ WAR players controlled for years and the stats back it up. They are going to have to part with at least two of Watson/Meyer/Eury/Cabrera for Reynolds, and at least 1 for Laureano, and one of Bleday/Burdick being on top of this. Watson, Eury, and Meyer are not top 10 prospects. They are top 40-60 prospects.

Would you do this. I am curious.

T. Rogers..... and something like
DLC/Jerar
Fitterer/Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm
Soriano/Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm
Another outside top 25 RHP RP Arm

for

Reynolds
Bednar
Thompson


Rogers is sacrificed which is mind blowing, but you make those innings up with Bednar and Thompson. Rogers is worth more than Reynolds, so that's how you get those two and the Pirates get three swings to replace the arms plus a potential bench OF. Maybe McCambley has to be in there, but still.

Would you do that?

I would switch rogers for pablo and add another higher level prospect in that deal. My whole idea for about a year now is that pablo is the clear one to trade. I would have pushed to deal him for the last year. His shoulder will need surgery at some point. you just don't have this many shoulder injuries in a row and have it all of a sudden go away. He simply is not durable enough to stay here long term in my opinion.

Im fine with dealing one of those guys for Reynolds (Meyer or Eury), I just value laureano less than you. He's great defensively, but his last 2 years have included a .704 OPS in 2021, a middling ..760 OPS last year with a steroid suspension. His first year in 2018 was good in a small sample, and he was great in 2019, I just don't think his track record justifies Meyer, Eury, and definitely not Watson. If they don't accept quantity deal (5 for 1), don't make the move. For me its that simple. If that's what it would take, unless we also get montas or Manaea for the year, I say let the internal options figure out who can play a somewhat passable CF and ride this current team till at least the deadline.

I think the offseason was a success in terms of improving the offense. Obviously we all want them to spend big money, but given their clear budget constraints, I think they did an above average job at improving the quality and depth of the lineup to the point where it can be good enough to let the pitching carry them to contention. If we just look at the difference between this year and last, we've added a healthy BA (hopefully), Soler, Garcia, a more experienced Jazz and Sanchez, Wendle, Stallings, and a temporarily healthy cooper. If it doesn't work out and they are still in the mix come june/july, then we can revisit this trade discussion. I didn't see the game the other day, but if BA can handle CF even remotely competently, I think this is a team that competes for a wild card with the pitching they have.

[sports24/7]

I remember, but I think it is posturing. He makes the most sense to trade. He is the furthest away, can't help now, and may never have more value. I view these comments as.... Meyer and Cabrera can throw 200 innings at the MLB level this year and we need that.

Any prospect can turn into a stud. There will always be risk. We'll see. They need to trade for a CF.

Ironically, FG doesn't think it's a disaster - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-pos...-center-field/. So maybe we are all schmucks and Sanchez and Garcia can do it. Count me in for the UNDER on the WAR projection.

I think most of the points you're making here are accurate, and it's possible it's posturing, but Mish isn't usually used in that way. Most of the info that he puts out is pretty straight forward. The only thing with Perez is he might not actually be as far away as his age suggests. If he keeps dominating as he moves up levels, he could arrive sooner than the typical prospect.

[lou]

I would switch rogers for pablo and add another higher level prospect in that deal. My whole idea for about a year now is that pablo is the clear one to trade. I would have pushed to deal him for the last year. His shoulder will need surgery at some point. you just don't have this many shoulder injuries in a row and have it all of a sudden go away. He simply is not durable enough to stay here long term in my opinion.

Im fine with dealing one of those guys for Reynolds (Meyer or Eury), I just value laureano less than you. He's great defensively, but his last 2 years have included a .704 OPS in 2021, a middling ..760 OPS last year with a steroid suspension. His first year in 2018 was good in a small sample, and he was great in 2019, I just don't think his track record justifies Meyer, Eury, and definitely not Watson. If they don't accept quantity deal (5 for 1), don't make the move. For me its that simple. If that's what it would take, unless we also get montas or Manaea for the year, I say let the internal options figure out who can play a somewhat passable CF and ride this current team till at least the deadline.

I think the offseason was a success in terms of improving the offense. Obviously we all want them to spend big money, but given their clear budget constraints, I think they did an above average job at improving the quality and depth of the lineup to the point where it can be good enough to let the pitching carry them to contention. If we just look at the difference between this year and last, we've added a healthy BA (hopefully), Soler, Garcia, a more experienced Jazz and Sanchez, Wendle, Stallings, and a temporarily healthy cooper. If it doesn't work out and they are still in the mix come june/july, then we can revisit this trade discussion. I didn't see the game the other day, but if BA can handle CF even remotely competently, I think this is a team that competes for a wild card with the pitching they have.

They don't need 3 years of Pablo control. It's not even worth mentioning for the Pirates (or A's or Orioles).

The question was Rogers - is he worth Reynolds in a trade similar to that to you. You value Eury/Meyer/Cabrera to the moon, so Rogers is the 1-1 for Reynolds if the Marlins can get a Bednar/Thompson sort of package, and they chuck in some outside top 15 level prospects to make up any difference. That could work. Bryan Reynolds sucked in 2020 also BTW. So did Castellanos, Schwarber, Soler, etc. We really can't view the Covid year as who guys are.

Offseason is a failure with no CF. At best, a C- and that's barely getting out of a D range. There is no sugar coating it. That being said, it's still passing because they have the prospects still and can make the CF trade whenever they get their head out of their ass. Getting Reynolds or Laureano for really anyone makes this an A.

[lou]

I think most of the points you're making here are accurate, and it's possible it's posturing, but Mish isn't usually used in that way. Most of the info that he puts out is pretty straight forward. The only thing with Perez is he might not actually be as far away as his age suggests. If he keeps dominating as he moves up levels, he could arrive sooner than the typical prospect.

Maybe.

We can debate all day - Marlins need to pick 1, Pirates can eliminate 1 - and the trade offer is who is left. I'm talking Meyer, Eury, and Cabrera. One of them HAS to be in a Reynolds deal. So have each team pick 1 guy to remove, and the third guy is what we're talking about. This is likely Eury or Meyer as Cabrera is off injury. One of them has gotta go even if we love them.

[fish16]

They don't need 3 years of Pablo control. It's not even worth mentioning for the Pirates (or A's or Orioles).

The question was Rogers - is he worth Reynolds in a trade similar to that to you. You value Eury/Meyer/Cabrera to the moon, so Rogers is the 1-1 for Reynolds if the Marlins can get a Bednar/Thompson sort of package, and they chuck in some outside top 15 level prospects to make up any difference. That could work. Bryan Reynolds sucked in 2020 also BTW. So did Castellanos, Schwarber, Soler, etc. We really can't view the Covid year as who guys are.

Offseason is a failure with no CF. At best, a C- and that's barely getting out of a D range. There is no sugar coating it. That being said, it's still passing because they have the prospects still and can make the CF trade whenever they get their head out of their ass. Getting Reynolds or Laureano for really anyone makes this an A.

then id go to a team like the angels who could use pitching immediately and try to get marsh or adell. They can get a quality CF with team control without dealing those front level prospects. I would trade pablo straight up for Jo adell

[sports24/7]

Maybe.

We can debate all day - Marlins need to pick 1, Pirates can eliminate 1 - and the trade offer is who is left. I'm talking Meyer, Eury, and Cabrera. One of them HAS to be in a Reynolds deal. So have each team pick 1 guy to remove, and the third guy is what we're talking about. This is likely Eury or Meyer as Cabrera is off injury. One of them has gotta go even if we love them.

Right. I mean, regardless, there is a deal to be made here, and the Marlins just have to pull the trigger. If the Pirates really are asking for the moon, move on to Laureano. It doesn't sound like they're asking for too much, though. My preference would be to try and keep Watson, but I'd be open to spend big with prospects to land a player like that with control.

[Lee Stone]

then id go to a team like the angels who could use pitching immediately and try to get marsh or adell. They can get a quality CF with team control without dealing those front level prospects. I would trade pablo straight up for Jo adell

Whoa! Pablo is ranked as a top thirty pitcher in the majors. Adell? I really don't know.

[Nick]

Pop fly in the air forever to mid-center field drops because we don’t have a CF.

[lou]

then id go to a team like the angels who could use pitching immediately and try to get marsh or adell. They can get a quality CF with team control without dealing those front level prospects. I would trade pablo straight up for Jo adell

So no, you wouldn't trade Rogers. Adell also not a CF. Defense looks terrible.

You can sell me on Pablo/Cooper/Bass for Marsh/J. Jackson/Outside top 15 prospect, and then using cost savings for Kiermaier and spend more money for 100+ innings in whatever is left in free agency. I'm not sure what that is at this point, but there has to be some sort of innings eater for the first half of the season. Brett Anderson?

[lou]

They also optioned Cabrera. Dumb. Bullpen is going to be a mess.

Big picture, June 2nd (back from a home trip) is the red circle for getting an extra year of Cabrera service time.