2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Todd]

I would not be opposed to seeing Holloway get a crack at the closers role. His stats are skewed a bit by awful starts. He was PRETTY dominant as a reliever(.110 BAA, .350 OPSa, 9 K/9, .75 ERA, .72 WHIP in 24 IP). I think him and Bender could be damn good closing out games.

[fish16]

I would not be opposed to seeing Holloway get a crack at the closers role. His stats are skewed a bit by awful starts. He was PRETTY dominant as a reliever(.110 BAA, .350 OPSa, 9 K/9, .75 ERA, .72 WHIP). I think him and Bender could be damn good closing out games.

bender only. holloway and his lack of control in a closers role seems like a terrible combo. maybe as a middle reliever or set up man but holloway has good stuff but absolutely no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand.

[lou]

I would not be opposed to seeing Holloway get a crack at the closers role. His stats are skewed a bit by awful starts. He was PRETTY dominant as a reliever(.110 BAA, .350 OPSa, 9 K/9, .75 ERA, .72 WHIP in 24 IP). I think him and Bender could be damn good closing out games.

You know what's the funniest thing about Holloway, he threw .1 innings in 2020 and got a year of service time. He's a 1.087 days. It's the worst service time example that will ever happen. The most expensive .1 IP ever if he turns into a good reliever the next two years.

If he wins the 7th/8th spot in the pen, so be it. I recall those splits too, but he hasn't really put it together beyond that small sample size. He's clearly behind Floro, Bender, Bleier, and Pop for the reliever crew, and would be behind the SP castoffs if they trickle down. I think he might have a future, but he's got to earn his spot and if performance moves him up, great. Getting another young Bender/Pop controlled for years would be wonderful. I'd develop him as a reliever for sure. Maybe he and Neidert work out there.

[Todd]

I really dont know why he'd be behind Pop of all people. His numbers are much better, his stuff is much better, and they are the same age.

[Todd]

While I don't hate Stallings, for what they gave up I think they could have gotten Sean Murphy from Oakland instead, who is basically a younger Stallings.

[lou]

While I don't hate Stallings, for what they gave up I think they could have gotten Sean Murphy from Oakland instead, who is basically a younger Stallings.

No way in hell. 5 years younger than Stallings, with an extra year of control, and significantly better hit tool. Murphy had a 3.3 WAR last year and Stallings 2.6. You're talking a significantly larger package headlined by Meyer, Cabrera, Eury, or (healthy) Sixto. No way for Thompson, Nicolas, and Scott. The only reason that got Stallings is he's 32 and catchers break down. Murphy is turning 27 and catchers cost nothing in arbitration so there is relatively no risk with him moving forward. They were shrewd getting Stallings which they get credit for, but Murphy is really a different class of player.

I think the organization also likes Pop. He underperformed last year and coming off injuries (TJ). There is some upside there. I think they view him as a safer middle bullpen option. Agree completely Holloway has more upside and better "stuff." If Holloway puts it together, he's definitely Bender/Floro level. But Pop seems like a steady 4th RHP in the bullpen that only elite guys will jump. I think he is guaranteed a spot right now which is all I'm saying. After Floro, Bender, Bleier, and Pop, the rest starts becoming interchangeable with SP trickle downs, Head, Okert, and camp arms. Ideally, this is Cabrera/Hernandez in the bullpen, they acquire another veteran arm, Okert holds on as reasonable lefty, and that 8th spot is up/down arms like Head, Neidert, and Holloway and we'll see who breaks out. If any. Then in the summer, Meyer and Sixto show up and the bullpen is outrageously awesome.

[fish16]

It's a moving thought process, but (1) Sandy, (2) Rogers, (3) Luzardo (lefty), (4) Jazz, (5) Watson, (6) one of Eury/Cabrera/Meyer (don't care which, but would prefer Meyer I think), (7) one of Sanchez/Bleday (don't care which), and (8) one of Eder/Fulton (lefty) is the untouchable list for me.

Everyone else can go to solve CF issues. It doesn't matter who. They have depth all over to handle this if it solves CF, and perhaps some guys are attached to that.

If someone doesn't want

Eury
Meyer/Cabrera
Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick and/or
Salas/Sixto/Eder/Fulton

For a CF and parts, that is then not a Marlins problem. That's a tremendous 3-4 player package and it just wasn't meant to be.

But they then, should still absorb Kiermaier/whoever and punt for a year.

IDK where you get your values but some of the prospect packages you propose are gross overpays. Just because you have depth doesnt mean you have to give up way too much for major league talent. That package is a gross overpay even for reynolds.

[lou]

IDK where you get your values but some of the prospect packages you propose are gross overpays. Just because you have depth doesnt mean you have to give up way too much for major league talent. That package is a gross overpay even for reynolds.

Reynolds and Laureano are probably top 50 valued players in baseball just so you know

[lou]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-...e-the-top-100/

Reynolds and Laureano are worth A LOT. Reynolds easily close to $110m (as a 4 WAR player, scale up if you think he's better), Laureano is probably $80m range (as a 3.5 WAR player.... his career per 600/PA is 4.7 WAR). Their contracts aren't guaranteed either which is huge value, and you could likely add $50m+ in value in either with a 6-7 year arbitration buy out contract.

Look at what the Twins traded Jose Berrios for. Look around baseball at these deals.

Reynolds is a triple top 100 centerpiece and one has to be Watson/Eury/Meyer. Laureano is probably 2 and Watson can come off the table for him, and the second one can probably be a flirting top 100 like Sixto/Eder/Salas/Bleday due to suspension, but player 3 will have to be excellent (Burdick/Fulton/Lewis minimum). Which is where you expand and get Kemp and/or Trivino to offset.

These guys cost A LOT. They are VERY GOOD and the Marlins are selling dreams here.

[Namaste]

It’s a very Marlins thing to overvalue our prospects.

I’ll say it again: we generally only trade proven MLB talent for prospects. Sending prospects out for proven MLB talent isn’t our thing.

[sports24/7]

Why don't they really just blow it out for Montas, Laureano, Kemp, and Trivino?

Like who cares?

Eury
Meyer/Cabrera
Bleday/Burdick
Sixto/Eder/Salas/Fulton/I. Lewis
Morisette/Jerar/Fitterer/McCants
DLC/Berti (or both!)
Outside top 25
Outside top 35

A totally awesome 8-4 sending out a tremendous franchise changing package for everyone. Montas (2), Laureano (3), Kemp (2), and Trivino (3) all cheap and controlled for years. Oakland takes 4 big swings longterm.

They are rolling this out for 2 years basically and it's CHEAP and they could easily add a major FA next year with money off the books.

Stallings, Henry (Pipeline - Fortes, Jackson, Mack)
Aguilar, Cooper (Pipeline - Lewin)
Jazz (Pipeline - at least one of Salas/I. Lewis, maybe both, and maybe Morisette)
Rojas, Wendle (Pipeline - Watson, Devers, Nunez, maybe McCants)
Anderson (Pipeline - Cappe, and maybe Salas outgrows and moves if he's still here)
Laureano (Pipeline - VMJR)
Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, Kemp (Pipeline - Bleday or Burdick)

Sandy, Montas, Pablo, Meyer or Cabrera, maybe Sixto still here, Hernandez (Pipeline - ______)
Rogers, Luzardo (Pipeline - at least one of Eder or Fulton, maybe both)

Floro, Bender, Trivino, Pop (Pipeline - a lot of arms + SP trickle downs)
Bleier, Okert (Pipeline - Velez and could use lefties)

Big picture
-SP is very set. They have 8-9 guys easily for next 5+ years absent real injury issues
-Bullpen is set beyond needing a marquee lefty. They can find one. Or maybe Lee is right on Velez.
-There is excellent middle infield depth short and longterm with superstar upside
-OF is set for 5 years, but they need another CF in pipeline absolutely
-3B may be an issue longterm
-C may be an issue of Stallings slows and Mack is nothing

This is where first four picks in the draft (no order) are a college C, 3B, CF, and lefty arm. Fast moving supplements to this ideally.

Why do we care about that prospect package at all here with this depth chart, noting this is going to maintain a $70-90m payroll based on arbitration retainments/Soler opt-out. They could ADD to this dramatically if they went to $110-120m in peak contending years. And that's still CHEAP.

This really annoys me that they won't plant their flag after 4 years. Oakland couldn't say no for effectively four top 100 guys, even if we have to stretch a little to get Bleday and Sixto/Eder/Salas in there. I don't think those are large leaps of faith.

FWIW, earlier this month Mish said Eury Perez is essentially untouchable, and off limits in any deal. He said "In almost 3 decades of Marlins baseball there may not be a more highly thought of young pitcher". And he said that includes Josh Beckett and Jose Fernandez. Now, we've previously heard they believe Lewin Diaz was going to be a major star, so maybe they just don't know what they're talking about. But nonetheless, he's been pretty adamant that Perez will not be included in any deal.

[fish16]

Reynolds and Laureano are probably top 50 valued players in baseball just so you know

laureano is under control for this year and next year and is suspended for 29 games due to steroids. giving up multiple, close to the big leagues fairly surefire top of the rotation guys is far too much. If you add more like montas and trivino I could see meyer, a guy like fulton, and then a few lower level high valued guys like Salas and Lewis, but any deal where you're dealing Meyer and Eury is just ridiculous. that's not happening. They have the lower level prospect depth to make a deal that makes sense for a rebuilding team like the a's or pirates as well as us. I don't think they are dealing Meyer. He's going to be an ace.

[fish16]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-...e-the-top-100/

Reynolds and Laureano are worth A LOT. Reynolds easily close to $110m (as a 4 WAR player, scale up if you think he's better), Laureano is probably $80m range (as a 3.5 WAR player.... his career per 600/PA is 4.7 WAR). Their contracts aren't guaranteed either which is huge value, and you could likely add $50m+ in value in either with a 6-7 year arbitration buy out contract.

Look at what the Twins traded Jose Berrios for. Look around baseball at these deals.

Reynolds is a triple top 100 centerpiece and one has to be Watson/Eury/Meyer. Laureano is probably 2 and Watson can come off the table for him, and the second one can probably be a flirting top 100 like Sixto/Eder/Salas/Bleday due to suspension, but player 3 will have to be excellent (Burdick/Fulton/Lewis minimum). Which is where you expand and get Kemp and/or Trivino to offset.

These guys cost A LOT. They are VERY GOOD and the Marlins are selling dreams here.

Minnesota got austin martin and Richardson. Austin martin is in the 50s prospect ranking wise and Richardson is unranked at least on the MLB site. they are the 2nd and 8th ranked prospects in their organization now. Granted Berrios was a free agent to be, but IMO berrios is a superior ballplayer to Laureano and doesn't have the steroid suspension cloud. Given laureano has a year of control more but is suspended, id think it would take a similar haul for him, which is fine, but its not Meyer/Eury/Watson worthy. Its Bleday/Burdick, Fulton/Mccambley, and then a Nunez/Salas/Lewis type lower level guy. Meyer/Eury/Watson should not be on the table for Laureano.

For Reynolds, Meyer can be on the table, but there shouldn't be another top 5 prospect in there in our organization. We have enough depth to make it work. Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis type should be enough.

[lou]

laureano is under control for this year and next year and is suspended for 29 games due to steroids. giving up multiple, close to the big leagues fairly surefire top of the rotation guys is far too much. If you add more like montas and trivino I could see meyer, a guy like fulton, and then a few lower level high valued guys like Salas and Lewis, but any deal where you're dealing Meyer and Eury is just ridiculous. that's not happening. They have the lower level prospect depth to make a deal that makes sense for a rebuilding team like the a's or pirates as well as us. I don't think they are dealing Meyer. He's going to be an ace.

Laureano has 3 years of control. He has 3.014 days of service time.

You are dramatically over valuing the Marlins prospects. That is all this is.

[lou]

Minnesota got austin martin and Richardson. Austin martin is in the 50s prospect ranking wise and Richardson is unranked at least on the MLB site. they are the 2nd and 8th ranked prospects in their organization now. Granted Berrios was a free agent to be, but IMO berrios is a superior ballplayer to Laureano and doesn't have the steroid suspension cloud. Given laureano has a year of control more but is suspended, id think it would take a similar haul for him, which is fine, but its not Meyer/Eury/Watson worthy. Its Bleday/Burdick, Fulton/Mccambley, and then a Nunez/Salas/Lewis type lower level guy. Meyer/Eury/Watson should not be on the table for Laureano.

For Reynolds, Meyer can be on the table, but there shouldn't be another top 5 prospect in there in our organization. We have enough depth to make it work. Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis type should be enough.

Berrios was traded with 1 1/2 years of control. Not 3-4 years like Laureano and Reynolds. Not a free agent to be. And got an absolutely stud prospect ranked directly around Watson and Meyer. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/. Reynolds and Laureano are better. Either of them commands anyone in the Marlins system in all actuality.

The Marlins have said (via the Miami Herald article) they believe Laureano suspension was a mistake and don't think he's a user. There is a negligible suspension reduction. Please note FG thought Laureano is a top valued player across baseball. Not much has changed. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-31-to-40/

You are wrong about how good Laureano is, as well as how good the Marlins prospects are. Everyone is very good here. They have to give real value to get real value.