2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Can the Marlins win more than 30 NL East games this year (if Soler is the last offensive piece)? If they don't, I can't see them winning more than 68 at best. to win 82 it would require them to win at least 52 of the 86 out-of-division games. That's not happening. 68-94 give or take 4

They are going to be around .500 right now. The Marlins might have two of the top 5, and four of the top 10 SP in the division. The floor there is 3 (and I'm not going to be surprised with a Luzardo step forward, or Cabrera/Meyer breaking out for the fourth). Also, they have a 2-3 WAR starter at every position player spot besides CF. Remember, a 20 WAR position crew is middle of the pack minimum.

It's 78 give or take 4 today. You're 10 off.

Which is why they desperately need a 4 WAR CF.

[Nick]

I got them around 75 wins with the club as is.

[lou]

That year is a pretty big outlier for his career, though, and he’s 30. I don’t hate the move on it’s surface, but I’m worried that this is it, or they decide they can now just add a glove first CF.

See above for Soler. If this is it, they are fucked unless Garcia/Sanchez magically can play CF. We all agree there.

Also, if it's a glove first CF what do you think about this - if they get Kiermaier (basically a 2 WAR defensive floor, amazing starter versus RHP) and then upgrade DLC to some lefty killer CF even if not a great defensive option, that could work for a poor man. The good news with this is, all the prospects will have been kept so they could "reassess" in June. I don't know who can hit lefties, but I'm thinking a bat-forward CF who can hit a little, but nothing amazing.

Alternatively, I think this is where I point out a dystopian future where Deshields has a career .713 OPS versus LHP and Kiermaier a .742 vs RHP. So compared to the above, if they do that and they play their normal defense (KK being amazing, and Deshields a little above average), are we grab the pitchforks mad? This is a 2.5+ WAR CF/4th OF scenario. And they keep the prospects?

We'll see. Something else is coming. They need 1-3 more upgrades depending on who.

[fauowls44]

The Marlins don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt…believe me I get it…but I don’t understand the criticism of signing Soler here. He’s clearly an upgrade for this lineup. Taking the off-season as a whole, adding Soler, Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings makes the lineup significantly better. There are 7 players that can legitimately give you 20-30 homers. It’s been years since a Marlins team had that kind of power potential. Is it perfect, no. They obviously need a CF. I can’t see how they are finished…The good news is that they seem to acknowledge that.

[fish16]

The Marlins don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt…believe me I get it…but I don’t understand the criticism of signing Soler here. He’s clearly an upgrade for this lineup. Taking the off-season as a whole, adding Soler, Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings makes the lineup significantly better. There are 7 players that can legitimately give you 20-30 homers. It’s been years since a Marlins team had that kind of power potential. Is it perfect, no. They obviously need a CF. I can’t see how they are finished…The good news is that they seem to acknowledge that.

plus you have Anderson healthy and jazz and sanchez hopefully taking a next step. They have absolutely improved the competence of the offense as a whole in terms of the depth of quality hitters in the lineup, but they are still missing the star power that they will eventually need to become a legit contender.

[fish16]

mlb.com just came out with their top 100 list. Watson at 25, Cabrera and Meyer at 34 and 35, Eury 41, and sixto at 58 and bleday at 69. That's some pretty damn good pitching we have given how close those guys are to the big leagues on top of what we already have at an extremely high level at the big leagues. the more I think of it the more id like to see that pitching depth play out at least until the trade deadline and even into next offseason. If things break right we can have 8 different guys who have top of the rotation ability- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer, Sixto, Cabrera, Eury, Lazardo, plus more depth after that in the system with Garrett, Neidert, Elieser, Fulton, and Mccambley. That's unbelievable. That has a really high chance of playing out to a full rotation of top of the rotation type guys by next opening day.

Id like to see that rotation depth play out 1 more year given how disjointed the last few years have been in the minor leagues. I also think Watson has top 5 overall prospect ability and might be in that conversation come next year. While it isn't the sexy move, the smart move might just be holding pat and adding either through free agency or the lesser trade market (Laureano type as opposed to reynolds type). I think it might be smart to let the current hitting crop we've added play out till the trade deadline and see who bounces back, takes a next step, and just overall it gives you a few more months to evaluate what we currently have before we raid the farm system for a guy like reynolds.

[lou]

The Marlins don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt…believe me I get it…but I don’t understand the criticism of signing Soler here. He’s clearly an upgrade for this lineup. Taking the off-season as a whole, adding Soler, Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings makes the lineup significantly better. There are 7 players that can legitimately give you 20-30 homers. It’s been years since a Marlins team had that kind of power potential. Is it perfect, no. They obviously need a CF. I can’t see how they are finished…The good news is that they seem to acknowledge that.

Yes. CF or bust. It's that easy.

I think we'd all be thrilled with Soler assuming they had a CF in place. It would be like... oh wow you're spending money to upgrade Cooper, Aguilar, or I guess DLC. That's good!

[lou]

mlb.com just came out with their top 100 list. Watson at 25, Cabrera and Meyer at 34 and 35, Eury 41, and sixto at 58 and bleday at 69. That's some pretty damn good pitching we have given how close those guys are to the big leagues on top of what we already have at an extremely high level at the big leagues. the more I think of it the more id like to see that pitching depth play out at least until the trade deadline and even into next offseason. If things break right we can have 8 different guys who have top of the rotation ability- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Meyer, Sixto, Cabrera, Eury, Lazardo, plus more depth after that in the system with Garrett, Neidert, Elieser, Fulton, and Mccambley. That's unbelievable. That has a really high chance of playing out to a full rotation of top of the rotation type guys by next opening day.

Id like to see that rotation depth play out 1 more year given how disjointed the last few years have been in the minor leagues. I also think Watson has top 5 overall prospect ability and might be in that conversation come next year. While it isn't the sexy move, the smart move might just be holding pat and adding either through free agency or the lesser trade market (Laureano type as opposed to reynolds type). I think it might be smart to let the current hitting crop we've added play out till the trade deadline and see who bounces back, takes a next step, and just overall it gives you a few more months to evaluate what we currently have before we raid the farm system for a guy like reynolds.

They need a CF and they need to trade from Eury, Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Burdick, and the secondary IF guys (Lewis, Morisette, Nunez, etc.). I think Bleday is now untouchable for them after AFL, just a hunch. If Eury is also untouchable for them, as well as Watson.... that's a Meyer, Sixto/Cabrera, Burdick, and I. Lewis/Morisette trade package. I'm not losing sleep with the rest of their controlled guys if it solves CF. I'm not sure how that doesn't get Laureano, Ketel, or Mullins (please note I'm not saying straight up and maybe others are involved). Reynolds, that's harder. But that's fine if he is too expensive.

They have the goods to get this done. They need to go for it. All of these guys are enormous upgrades.

[fauowls44]

Yes. CF or bust. It's that easy.

I think we'd all be thrilled with Soler assuming they had a CF in place. It would be like... oh wow you're spending money to upgrade Cooper, Aguilar, or I guess DLC. That's good!

Yup. But just because they don’t yet have the CF in place, doesn’t make signing Soler a bad signing. Adding more good players to the roster is positive, even if the fit isn’t perfect.

[Nick]

Yup. But just because they don’t yet have the CF in place, doesn’t make signing Soler a bad signing. Adding more good players to the roster is positive, even if the fit isn’t perfect.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-ma...e-soler-10723/

Am I reading this correctly?

• $500,000 each for 350, 400 plate appearances
• $1M each for 450, 500, 550 plate appearances

If Soler matches his plate appearances from 2019 and 2021 he's getting $4 million extra per year?

[sports24/7]

See above for Soler. If this is it, they are fucked unless Garcia/Sanchez magically can play CF. We all agree there.

Also, if it's a glove first CF what do you think about this - if they get Kiermaier (basically a 2 WAR defensive floor, amazing starter versus RHP) and then upgrade DLC to some lefty killer CF even if not a great defensive option, that could work for a poor man. The good news with this is, all the prospects will have been kept so they could "reassess" in June. I don't know who can hit lefties, but I'm thinking a bat-forward CF who can hit a little, but nothing amazing.

Alternatively, I think this is where I point out a dystopian future where Deshields has a career .713 OPS versus LHP and Kiermaier a .742 vs RHP. So compared to the above, if they do that and they play their normal defense (KK being amazing, and Deshields a little above average), are we grab the pitchforks mad? This is a 2.5+ WAR CF/4th OF scenario. And they keep the prospects?

We'll see. Something else is coming. They need 1-3 more upgrades depending on who.

I'm worried something else isn't coming. At least something worthwhile.

[sports24/7]

The Marlins don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt…believe me I get it…but I don’t understand the criticism of signing Soler here. He’s clearly an upgrade for this lineup. Taking the off-season as a whole, adding Soler, Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings makes the lineup significantly better. There are 7 players that can legitimately give you 20-30 homers. It’s been years since a Marlins team had that kind of power potential. Is it perfect, no. They obviously need a CF. I can’t see how they are finished…The good news is that they seem to acknowledge that.

For me, it's not a criticism of adding Soler. If they go out and still land a big CF bat, I actually think signing him is a good idea. To me, though, the move worries me because I think they could see it as the last significant move they make and justify not trading for a good player. I'm very worried that this is what happens now, especially on the heels of what Ng said the other day.

Also, if I have it right, the terms of this deal aren't great for Miami. The money is fine, but if he has a big year, he'll opt out. If he's closer to his career averages, he'll stay and be overpaid. That part feels like a mistake.

[Nick]

Here's a question, we spent 4 years and $89-$93 million on Garcia and Soler. Do we have a better team if we spend 4 years and $78 million on Starling Marte? I think I'd take Marte and the extra $11-$15 million.

[Lee Stone]

Or acquired Ramon Laureano, an elite CF that is performing much as Marte did at this point of his career. Now, let's say the team does acquire Laureano still (or another CF). Given the years provided for Garcia and Soler in their contracts and the presence of Jesus Sanchez, wouldn't that slam the door on Burdick and Bleday? I could see one or both of them become part of a trade package for Laureano (or another CF).

[Nick]

Or acquired Ramon Laureano, an elite CF that is performing much as Marte did at this point of his career. Now, let's say the team does acquire Laureano still (or another CF). Given the years provided for Garcia and Soler in their contracts and the presence of Jesus Sanchez, wouldn't that slam the door on Burdick and Bleday? I could see one or both of them become part of a trade package for Laureano (or another CF).

If any deal happens to acquire a starting CF'er, I would assume one of the two would be in the deal.