2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

looks like it might be soler as the FA. Apparently talks are "intensifying" and we are preparing a lucrative deal. Im guessing there will also be a trade for a CF, which leads me back to why the fuck did we sign avisail garcia. Dont get me wrong, his bat will help the lineup, but it just doesn't seem to fit in with all the other moves. Also, if we get Soler, unless the plan is for Garcia to man CF, Soler RF, and Sanchez in LF, and Cooper and aguilar to DH with Lewin at first, I think an aguilar or cooper trade is on the horizon.

[lou]

I'm not sports24/7, but:

deal for Reynolds - Watson, Meyer, Fulton (try to keep Perez at all costs)
Sign Anthony Rizzo
Sign Kenley Jansen

Would probably take closer to $35 million than $20 but it still would be around a $90 million payroll which is bottom 3rd in the league.

Pirates have a really good reliever (Bednar). What about this:

Watson/Eury(sorry)/Burdick/DLC/Pop/Outside top 20 prospect for Reynolds and Bednar. 6-2 move, obviously the back 3 guys don't matter for Marlins and good flyers. You opt for Meyer over Eury here as Meyer helps right now (midseason, etc.) and you don't give AF about longterm pitching when Eury may contribute in 3 years with Sandy, Cabrera, Meyer, Fulton, Eder, McCambley for 6, Rogers, Luzardo, Sixto, Bednar, and Bender for 5, and Pablo and Hernandez for 3. That could literally be the entire staff in 2025 you know?

Then how about STILL sign Kenley for 1-2 years and unleash Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head/Yacobonis/Holloway, Bleier, Okert, and __________

The ______ is trading FLORO (clears money for all of this, low control, coming off best season and still cheap), Cooper/Aguilar (clear more money), and prospects for a LEFTY.

Then sign Rizzo.

Then sign a defensive first backup CF, or ideally absorb Keirmaier or A. Hicks(NYY paying some here) to have a super premium 4th OF:

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Rizzo, Aguilar/Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
B. Reynolds, "Defense CF"
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head
Bleier, Okert, "Lefty For Floro"

That team is awesome and Sixto, Meyer, and Bleday may push roles midseason, with some legitimate backup AAA guys (Lewin, Isan, Jackson/Fortes, Neidert, Garrett, Holloway, Poteet, etc.) that all have fair amount of upside.


They got so many options here. That team is $90 without Aguilar, $95 without Cooper, + the CF (which might be club controlled.

Or ditch Kenley, keep Floro, and closer to $80

Or ditch Rizzo, keep Aguilar and Cooper, and also closer to $80. Both of those work also

[gustavopim]

Pirates have a really good reliever (Bednar). What about this:

Watson/Eury(sorry)/Burdick/DLC/Pop/Outside top 20 prospect for Reynolds and Bednar. 6-2 move, obviously the back 3 guys don't matter for Marlins and good flyers. You opt for Meyer over Eury here as Meyer helps right now (midseason, etc.) and you don't give AF about longterm pitching when Eury may contribute in 3 years with Sandy, Cabrera, Meyer, Fulton, Eder, McCambley for 6, Rogers, Luzardo, Sixto, Bednar, and Bender for 5, and Pablo and Hernandez for 3. That could literally be the entire staff in 2025 you know?

Then how about STILL sign Kenley for 1-2 years and unleash Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head/Yacobonis/Holloway, Bleier, Okert, and __________

The ______ is trading FLORO (clears money for all of this, low control, coming off best season and still cheap), Cooper/Aguilar (clear more money), and prospects for a LEFTY.

Then sign Rizzo.

Then sign a defensive first backup CF, or ideally absorb Keirmaier or A. Hicks(NYY paying some here) to have a super premium 4th OF:

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Rizzo, Aguilar/Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
B. Reynolds, "Defense CF"
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Kenley, Bednar, Bender, Cabrera, Head
Bleier, Okert, "Lefty For Floro"

That team is awesome and Sixto, Meyer, and Bleday may push roles midseason, with some legitimate backup AAA guys (Lewin, Isan, Jackson/Fortes, Neidert, Garrett, Holloway, Poteet, etc.) that all have fair amount of upside.


They got so many options here. That team is $90 without Aguilar, $95 without Cooper, + the CF (which might be club controlled.

Or ditch Kenley, keep Floro, and closer to $80

Or ditch Rizzo, keep Aguilar and Cooper, and also closer to $80. Both of those work also

Not sure you read this.... but there is no way the Marlins move Eury.

Craig Mish
Mar 13
In almost 3 decades of Marlins Baseball there may not be a more highly thought of young pitcher than Eury Perez. This includes a list with Josh Beckett and Jose Fernandez. May be youngest MLB SP since Doc Gooden in ‘84 at 19 years old (in 2023). Untouchable.

[Nick]

Not sure you read this.... but there is no way the Marlins move Eury.

Craig Mish
Mar 13
In almost 3 decades of Marlins Baseball there may not be a more highly thought of young pitcher than Eury Perez. This includes a list with Josh Beckett and Jose Fernandez. May be youngest MLB SP since Doc Gooden in ‘84 at 19 years old (in 2023). Untouchable.

I wouldn't take what Mish says as 100% Gospel.

If Soler is the 2nd piece to Garcia, this is the Marlins cheaping out. Taking 3rd tier FA players and selling them to the fanbase like "Look we're spending money!"

[Nick]

Per Barry Jackson's Twitter:

Source close to OF Nick Castellanos confirms he had great interest in signing with Marlins, but Marlins at this point not aggressively pursuing. The Davie native hit .309, 34, 100 with Reds. Jeter indeed wanted to sign him, the source said.

The picture is becoming clearer. Soler is just a significantly worse version of Castellanos, Marlins not aggressively pursuing Castellanos, very aggressive on Soler. To me a lefty bat that you can slot in at 1B/DH coupled with a CF makes more sense than signing either, but it certainly paints a picture doesn't it?

[lou]

Not sure you read this.... but there is no way the Marlins move Eury.

Craig Mish
Mar 13
In almost 3 decades of Marlins Baseball there may not be a more highly thought of young pitcher than Eury Perez. This includes a list with Josh Beckett and Jose Fernandez. May be youngest MLB SP since Doc Gooden in ‘84 at 19 years old (in 2023). Untouchable.

That's insane. Beckett was one of the most dominant right handers in baseball for basically a decade and Fernandez may have turned into the best right hander of the last several decades. Doc had over 30 WAR before he was 24, and I'll take the under Eury ever does that (no offense to Eury, but 30 WAR is a remarkable career let alone at 24).

Regardless, Watson + Meyer works too I guess

[lou]

Per Barry Jackson's Twitter:



The picture is becoming clearer. Soler is just a significantly worse version of Castellanos, Marlins not aggressively pursuing Castellanos, very aggressive on Soler. To me a lefty bat that you can slot in at 1B/DH coupled with a CF makes more sense than signing either, but it certainly paints a picture doesn't it?

It does, sort of.

They need two CF to platoon if no star like Reynolds is coming, and if they like Soler, that's a DH only luxury upgrade over Cooper or Aguilar. Which is fine if they want to do that. I can get behind that. Soler was AWESOME in 2019/post all start 2021 (250+ PA, insanely low BABIP in 2021 as well). Might be worth it on a reasonable 2-3 year deal to just rake. He's younger than Schwarber and probably half price of Castellanos? Anyways, there are worse ideas (e.g. Eddie Rosario).

But CF needs to be solved. If they don't want to spend money, trade Pablo/Bass/Cooper for Marsh and prospects, sign Soler, trade for Keirmaier for nothing. That probably increases payroll... $15m, so this is $80m-ish:

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
Marsh, Keirmaier
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, _____, Hernandez, Luzardo
Bender, Floro, Cabrera, Pop, Head, Yacabonis/Holloway/Other
Bleier, Okert

DL - Sixto
AAA - Everyone - Meyer, Neidert, Poteet, Garrett, Bleday, Burdick, Lewin, Isan, etc.

Get Anderson a 1B glove and it works just fine. Keirmaier and Wendle are insanely good bench players in this scenario. Sign an innings eater with big incentives to finish this out, and slowly stretch out Cabrera for the summer, with Sixto and Meyer coming in July/August presumably.

I think this is a pretty good team, with awesome upside with Jazz/Sanchez/Marsh/Luzardo/Cabrera, and the prospect arsenal has actually grown w/ the Pablo deal so they could go nuts at the deadline if needed.

[Nick]

It does, sort of.

They need two CF to platoon if no star like Reynolds is coming, and if they like Soler, that's a DH only luxury upgrade over Cooper or Aguilar. Which is fine if they want to do that. I can get behind that. Soler was AWESOME in 2019/post all start 2021 (250+ PA, insanely low BABIP in 2021 as well). Might be worth it on a reasonable 2-3 year deal to just rake. He's younger than Schwarber and probably half price of Castellanos? Anyways, there are worse ideas (e.g. Eddie Rosario).

But CF needs to be solved. If they don't want to spend money, trade Pablo/Bass/Cooper for Marsh and prospects, sign Soler, trade for Keirmaier for nothing. That probably increases payroll... $15m, so this is $80m-ish:

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez
Marsh, Keirmaier
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, _____, Hernandez, Luzardo
Bender, Floro, Cabrera, Pop, Head, Yacabonis/Holloway/Other
Bleier, Okert

DL - Sixto
AAA - Everyone - Meyer, Neidert, Poteet, Garrett, Bleday, Burdick, Lewin, Isan, etc.

Get Anderson a 1B glove and it works just fine. Keirmaier and Wendle are insanely good bench players in this scenario. Sign an innings eater with big incentives to finish this out, and slowly stretch out Cabrera for the summer, with Sixto and Meyer coming in July/August presumably.

I think this is a pretty good team, with awesome upside with Jazz/Sanchez/Marsh/Luzardo/Cabrera, and the prospect arsenal has actually grown w/ the Pablo deal so they could go nuts at the deadline if needed.

I don't know, I feel like that's a pretty below average lineup. Then couple that with losing Pablo, this would not be a satisfactory off-season in my eyes.

[Nick]

That's insane. Beckett was one of the most dominant right handers in baseball for basically a decade and Fernandez may have turned into the best right hander of the last several decades. Doc had over 30 WAR before he was 24, and I'll take the under Eury ever does that (no offense to Eury, but 30 WAR is a remarkable career let alone at 24).

Regardless, Watson + Meyer works too I guess

I agree it's way too early for those types of comparisons, but say he dominates again and makes it to AAA this year. He turns 19 in exactly a month. Do those comparisons stop being ridiculous?

[fish16]

i get that pablo is good, but if we're gonna trade a pitcher id rather it be him. the guy cant pirtch an entire year without hurting the shoulder. One of these years that wont just be a 2-3 month shoulder thing, it will be a full on surgery. If a team is willing to overlook his shoulder injuries and still give us significant value for him in the form of a good prospect like Marsh/Adell/Kelenic etc, id much rather that than moving multiple pieces like Eury, Meyer, and Watson. The prospects arent sure things of course, but given that pablo will be getting paid more and more the next 2 years after this one before he hits free agency and given his injury history, if a team values him highly and we can get that CF prospect for him, id absolutely prefer that to trading multiple top prospects.

For me, Meyer and eury's value given their proximity to the big leagues and 6 years of team control, 3 years for the minimum, I value them higher than Pablo, though pablo of course can be counted on this year which provides a value for a team looking to take the next step.

[fish16]

Also, Sixto Sanchez is rapidly reaching Josh Johnson "what could have been" territory. The guy is so good, but if he cant stay healthy and doesn't take care of himself and his body, he's gonna flame out unfortunately. Hopefully this injury is the last one for a while and he can get healthy and come in and give us a great piece to add to a hopefully good club come mid season.

[Nick]

i get that pablo is good, but if we're gonna trade a pitcher id rather it be him. the guy cant pirtch an entire year without hurting the shoulder. One of these years that wont just be a 2-3 month shoulder thing, it will be a full on surgery. If a team is willing to overlook his shoulder injuries and still give us significant value for him in the form of a good prospect like Marsh/Adell/Kelenic etc, id much rather that than moving multiple pieces like Eury, Meyer, and Watson. The prospects arent sure things of course, but given that pablo will be getting paid more and more the next 2 years after this one before he hits free agency and given his injury history, if a team values him highly and we can get that CF prospect for him, id absolutely prefer that to trading multiple top prospects.

For me, Meyer and eury's value given their proximity to the big leagues and 6 years of team control, 3 years for the minimum, I value them higher than Pablo, though pablo of course can be counted on this year which provides a value for a team looking to take the next step.

Isn't that us? It's fucking 2022. Us few fans that are still sticking through this have been more than patient with this ownership.

[fish16]

Isn't that us? It's fucking 2022. Us few fans that are still sticking through this have been more than patient with this ownership.

I don't think you read that correctly or I wrote it poorly. I was referring to the marlins. I'm saying I would rather trade pablo as I think prospects like Meyer and Watson have more value long term, but pablo is obviously the better fit for our team to keep this year as we're trying to take the next step.

[fish16]

mlb.com is now coming out with their top 100 and top 10 lists for each position now that the lockout is over. On the top 10 righty pitchers in all of baseball, they have cabrera 6, Meyer 7, and eury 10. Eder was 10th on the list of lefties.

[lou]

I don't know, I feel like that's a pretty below average lineup. Then couple that with losing Pablo, this would not be a satisfactory off-season in my eyes.

You could easily get 20+ WAR out of that hitting core without Jazz/Sanchez/Marsh breakouts.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson - 2.5 [Stallings 2.6 last year, projected anywhere 1.7-3 WAR this year. Fortes/Jackson just need to not be negative]
Aguilar - 1.5 [1.2 last year in 510 PA so he could nominally scale up]
Jazz - 2 [BELIEVE - 1.6 last year]
Rojas, Berti - 2.5 [Rojas 2.8 last year, projected 2-2.4ih. Berti may not do much]
Anderson, Wendle - 2.5 [Anderson has played at a 3WAR pace his whole career, projected for a 2+ this year, Wendle is a 1+ bench player]
Sanchez - 2 [BELIEVE - he was pacing around 1.3ish last year]
Marsh, Keirmaier - 2.5 [BELIEVE - Marsh paced as a 2 WAR player last year; KK is a high floor 1+ WAR defensive backup if nothing more. KK was 2.5 WAR in under 400 PA last year]
Garcia - 2.5 [2.9 last year, statcast darling so he could be improving]
Soler - 2 [2019/post-allstar 2021 super elite. Who is the real Soler?]

=20 WAR and this could be selling things short as Rojas, Anderson, Wendle, Keirmaier, Garcia, and Soler have all beaten these rates last few years, and Jazz, Sanchez, and Marsh could take leaps to 3+ WAR land.

20 WAR in bats = 13th last year, 17th 2019, 14th 2018, etc.

I'm more than happy with that if Sandy, Rogers, reasonable innings eater, Luzardo, Cabrera, Meyer, Sixto, and Hernandez basically start every game

If we want to get mad, this is an $80m payroll team that can easily project in high 30s WAR, so why aren't you dropping Correa on this to get over 40?