2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Disagree on the value of that website. I followed trades over the last couple years and they were consistently close. Ketel Marte seems like an easy guy to value at about $36M. He has three years left on his contract at $10M per. On the open market he might get $22M a year, so that's a surplus value of $12M a year, or $36M.

Uh. That's not how surplus value works Lee. Not at all. And that's ignoring if Ketel were a FA today he'd get a deal very similar to Corey Seager. $250-300m+ .

Ketel is going to, conservatively, be a 4-5 WAR player next few years with upside for more. Calculate how much a win in free agency is ($9-11m likely), subtract his contract, and there is a reasonable baseline for a trade. Fangraphs and others have articles how to value prospects. Meyer and Watson are probably FV50 guys, so they aren't going to reach Ketel by themselves.

Meyer and Watson are definitely valuable, but so were Hermida, Maybin, Miller, Brinson, and Harrison. I don't need to tell you prospects are always a crapshoot.

You do everything you can within reason to get a guy like Ketel.

[sports24/7]

Watson might be the guy I'd be least willing to give up. Not that I wouldn't, but I think I'd try everything I could to keep him, and they have enough good prospects that they probably should be able to.

[Namaste]

Watson might be the guy I'd be least willing to give up. Not that I wouldn't, but I think I'd try everything I could to keep him, and they have enough good prospects that they probably should be able to.

For me that guy is Max Meyer. I hate dealing guys who are exhibiting top of the rotation stuff.

[Nick]

You’re both wrong. Lol. Eury Perez is my untouchable.

[Lee Stone]

The Untouchables. Perez because he is a young phenom with top 10 overall prospect potential. Watson for the same reason. Salas is the other position player with a huge ceiling. On a team nearly devoid of All Star or even star potential at positions other than pitcher in the system, those three are precious. Among pitchers, Rogers and Alcantara and Lopez are proven as top-of-line guys. Meyer, Bleday, Burdick and Fulton seem like the group that can fetch a high caliber position player. I wouldn't sell low on Elieser, Cabera, Luzardo, S Sanchez or Eder at this time.

[lou]

You’re both wrong. Lol. Eury Perez is my untouchable.

If I had to pick a 4th guy in the organization after Sandy, Rogers, and Jazz (I think we all agree those are top 3 most untouchable), it is probably Eury for me too. What he did against older competition and what he could pack on in muscle is very exciting. Watson is very close though, but for a guy like Ketel all bets are off.

Max is still a smaller framed guy with reliever risk even if the results are great. I'd certainly try to use him and Sixto (and Elisier) for whoever it is they'd get. I like them a lot, but if they can keep Pablo, Cabrera, one of Meyer/Sixto/Eleiser, Eury, and the lefties (Luzardo, Eder, Fulton), they are really set when you anticipate adding 1 year guys if needed.

BTW, Elieser has a 1.7 WAR projection next year in 140 IP, Cabrera .7 (57 IP), Luzardo 1.1 (106 IP), Sixto 1.6 (92 IP). That's basically 60+ starts in innings, and that's their de facto 4/5 starters producing at 2.5+ WAR averages. Marlins projecting for a top 4-8 rotation in baseball. If they can get Ketel for Meyer/Watson/parts and not impact this, they are really really set up.

[fish16]

from most untouchable to least untouchable for me- Watson, Perez, Meyer, Bleday, Salas, and then the remainder of the lower level guys id be fine with dealing. Meyer I would hate to lose but if you can get a guy like Marte for him I'm fine with it.

[fish16]

not that it means anything but a proposed trade from an Instagram account for dbacks fans proposed Elieser, Meyer, Burdick and ian Lewis for Marte. Id be all for that.

[Lee Stone]

not that it means anything but a proposed trade from an Instagram account for dbacks fans proposed Elieser, Meyer, Burdick and ian Lewis for Marte. Id be all for that.

I would certainly make that trade ... but would prefer to see Bleday in the deal instead of Burdick.

[fish16]

I would certainly make that trade ... but would prefer to see Bleday in the deal instead of Burdick.

I like both but I hope they don't trade bleday until we can at least see him again in the minors to start the year. Burdick I would also like to see another couple months of evaluation if we can but if we have to deal him I wouldn't be upset. Value for Bleday though wouldn't be there right now even with the AFL results, and the AFL results really did seem to indicate he made substantial progress with the bat both in terms of plate discipline and average as well as barrelling up balls more consistently. he showed several stretches of a clear ability to get on base and hit for power last year but would always struggle for a little right afterward.

I would do everything possible to hang on to both but clearly choose burdick if we had to give up 1. I think we should focus on 2 places to trade from within the organization- SP depth in the upper minors (Cabrera, Meyer, Eder, McCambley, Fulton, not eury, and then see if anyone has any "last piece" type value on Garrett or Neidert in a deal) and then focus on the lower minors on guys like Salas, Lewis, Cappe, but not watson, etc. I think there is a combo of guys within that group that would make so much sense for a rebuilding team like the D-Backs- high level soon to be ready SP's and lower minors, very high ceiling guys who will take a few years.

And obviously this isn't fantasy and any team trading with us would want the headliner piece or 2, but id try to see if a team rebuilding their farm like the D Backs would be wiling to sacrifice slightly on the one or two headlining pieces for a deep 5-7 prospect package with the lower minors guys.

[lou]

I like both but I hope they don't trade bleday until we can at least see him again in the minors to start the year. Burdick I would also like to see another couple months of evaluation if we can but if we have to deal him I wouldn't be upset. Value for Bleday though wouldn't be there right now even with the AFL results, and the AFL results really did seem to indicate he made substantial progress with the bat both in terms of plate discipline and average as well as barrelling up balls more consistently. he showed several stretches of a clear ability to get on base and hit for power last year but would always struggle for a little right afterward.

I would do everything possible to hang on to both but clearly choose burdick if we had to give up 1. I think we should focus on 2 places to trade from within the organization- SP depth in the upper minors (Cabrera, Meyer, Eder, McCambley, Fulton, not eury, and then see if anyone has any "last piece" type value on Garrett or Neidert in a deal) and then focus on the lower minors on guys like Salas, Lewis, Cappe, but not watson, etc. I think there is a combo of guys within that group that would make so much sense for a rebuilding team like the D-Backs- high level soon to be ready SP's and lower minors, very high ceiling guys who will take a few years.

And obviously this isn't fantasy and any team trading with us would want the headliner piece or 2, but id try to see if a team rebuilding their farm like the D Backs would be wiling to sacrifice slightly on the one or two headlining pieces for a deep 5-7 prospect package with the lower minors guys.

I think you definitely bank on Bleday pedigree and don't "sell low." But, if some team will value him as a legit top 50-75 prospect, he can certainly be player 2 in any deal for a star. He is too good to be a third player, absent a very weird package.

Ketel is really, really, good. He is 20th in WAR of all hitters last 3 years, and of the top 75 hitters in term of WAR during that span, he has 3rd least PA (Judge, Cronenworth). He's exactly who they need. Nothing should really be off the table for a player like this.

[fish16]

I think you definitely bank on Bleday pedigree and don't "sell low." But, if some team will value him as a legit top 50-75 prospect, he can certainly be player 2 in any deal for a star. He is too good to be a third player, absent a very weird package.

Ketel is really, really, good. He is 20th in WAR of all hitters last 3 years, and of the top 75 hitters in term of WAR during that span, he has 3rd least PA (Judge, Cronenworth). He's exactly who they need. Nothing should really be off the table for a player like this.

I agree on ketel but in my opinion its not guys being off the table as much as it is just how id prefer the deal be structured to impact the team this year. We all know we have a glut of upper minors SP that we can deal from without feeling it too much in the future and I think we have a very interesting group of lower minors middle infielders with a high ceiling and high pedigree that would be valuable in a deal. My standpoint is that id rather deal from those 2 positions of strength rather than dealing from the remaining group of future OF's that have already been dealt from so far this offseason with scott and Misner. I think if you deal bleday and/or burdick as well you have now decimated the OF group in the system. Plus I think while it could bite us in the ass in like 4 years should Salas, Cappe, Lewis, etc ascend quickly, they need to win now and id rather deal from that group than guys who might be able to impact this team this year. There is an avenue to compete this year if they close the offseason like they should when the lockout is over, and in my opinion the best way to acquire a hugely valuable guy like Ketel Marte without hurting pieces that could impact the team this year is to trade from the SP depth and lower minors talent we have accumulated.

Id shop around a package of Meyer/Cabrera, Salas/Cappe/Lewis, , another SP like Mccambley, and then another lower level flier and just see what you can get. That's just the best combo of actually offering valuable prospects without hurting the team this upcoming year. This is why you invest in IFA and the draft. It's not just for their ability to impact your team, but for the ability to deal them when the time comes without feeling it too much at the ML level.

The only guy who I would truly view as untouchable is Watson. He is potentially a lindor/correa type transcendent talent that we don't have in the system and we have more than enough depth to get the kind of marte level player we need without sacrificing him.

[fish16]

Watson might be the guy I'd be least willing to give up. Not that I wouldn't, but I think I'd try everything I could to keep him, and they have enough good prospects that they probably should be able to.

completely agree with this 100%. Unless you are getting a guy like buxton who is obviously already off the table, there is no chance I include watson. more than enough to make it work without including him.

[lou]

completely agree with this 100%. Unless you are getting a guy like buxton who is obviously already off the table, there is no chance I include watson. more than enough to make it work without including him.

Ketel is a guy like Buxton? Certainly Buxton has higher upside if he can stay healthy, but we're splitting hairs as to level of superstar once we get into this level of review. Buxton has played like a 7.1 WAR player last 3 years (but only 684 PA), and Ketel 5.2 (1197 PA). Ketel's time includes a really bad .4 WAR covid year at close to 200 PA. Give him a mulligan for 2020, and he's scaling to a 5.9(!) WAR player for 2019/2021. These guys are both awesome.

Likewise, let's add in 500+ replacement PA for Buxton to match Ketel's PA. Buxton's injury replacements are going to have to be a 2+ WAR player to match Ketel's performance. That's going to be really really hard for a bench outfielder, suggesting Ketel is likely more valuable as he's going to play more. We do have to discount Buxton's injury history. Who knows how healthy he would be, but practically, it's safe to assume he will be hurt more meaning you'll have to have a better backup center fielder (tough on resources) all the time.

Big picture, if you can get a top 25 bat in baseball at 28 years old and signed for very cheap for 3 years, you do it. It's that easy. Buxton would have been great. Ketel would also be great pretty much regardless of the package. Who cares about future hope if you can get these guys. Watson could ultimately be great, but he could also be Hermida, Maybin, Miller, Brinson, Harrison, and I. Diaz. Brandon Wood was one of the best prospects in baseball at one point. Scott Kingery? Carter Kieboom? Victor Robles? Willie Calhoun? You never know. But we do know, Ketel Marte hits the shit out of the ball and can play 3-4 positions on the diamond well enough.

Sell the house if he is available. 20 other teams will be calling them.

[fish16]

keeping watson and trading for marte are not mutually exclusive propositions, all I'm saying is that we have the ability to get him without giving up watson. Trade from the positions of strength we've built (high-level SP and lower level high ceiling bats) and keep the one hitter in your system with superstar potential. Marte is a star, I completely agree, I'm just saying that we can both get that star and keep our number 1 prospect due to the investments they've made and built in the farm system through the draft, IFA, and trades. The benefit of building your team intelligently like they have done in the farm system is being able to acquire impact talent without losing a #1 prospect like Watson.

There is a world where they can both keep watson and have a potential future star AND have the next 3 cheap years of Marte for Meyer/Cabrera, Burdick, Salas, Mccambley, and say a throw in lower level guy.