2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Hernandez and Gurriel from Toronto are probably good names.

[lou]

You know what's really sad (or pathetic), if we judge the front office on their best longterm assets for the rebuild (not including free agency money, and not including Caleb Smith which is likely not a top 10 asset), it's probably this for 2018-2020 (2021 is too soon to evaluate):

1 - Player 1 Yelich - Brinson
2 - # 3 overall pick - Meyer
3 - # 4 overall pick - Bleday
4 - Gallen - Jazz
5 - Player 2 Yelich - Harrison
6 - Player 1 Realmuto - Sixto
7 - Player 1 Ozuna - Sierra (Fangraphs and others had him as centerpiece, but some had sany)
8 - Major IFA - VVM
9 - # 13 overall pick - Scott
10 - # 35 overall pick - Misner
After this it is second player in Ozuna deal (Sandy), second rounders (Osiris, Banfield, Nunez, Fulton), second player in Realmuto deal (Alfaro),

They have taken 6-7 major swings at getting a CF, and 4 of them are out of the organization, Harrison is OOO and likely out the door when he doesn't make the team in spring training, VVM can't hit a lick of AA pitching, and Osiris (who is dabbling in CF) has just been derailed from injuries/pandemic. Interestingly, he somehow just turned 21 so maybe there is some hope with him and next year he wakes up from all his unfortunate circumstances.

This just sucks. You'd think they'd at least have a platoon guy/backup.

[lou]

Hernandez and Gurriel from Toronto are probably good names.

I think if you're dishing one of the major arms, you need a pure longterm CF and not somehow who can dabble there. They are good players though, but they are not the CF move to me.

[lou]

Marlins were in on Ketel before lockdown - https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021...ry-more-notes/

Now we're talking. This is the missing piece. Play him predominantly in CF for 2 years then shift him to the IF.

I'd do something like:

Ketel (3/$30), Peralta (1/$8) in a salary dump, and old friend Caleb Smith (1/$2) and convert him to a reliever, for...

(1) Meyer/Cabera/Sixto, (2) Watson, (3) Elisier, (4) Burdick, (5) McCambley/Fitterer/lower arm, (6) Poteet/Neidert, and (7) I. Diaz/Harrison/throw in (change of scenery?)

Two centerpieces for Ketel, two good prospects/players to account for a third guy for Ketel and one for Caleb, and eating Peralta and some throw ins with reasonable upside as kickers. Arizona would be hard pressed to turn that down and doesn't change things much for Miami. Arizona could immediately spend $20m they are saving on whatever they deem important.

Stallings, Jackson/Fortes ($3.5m)
Aguilar, Cooper ($10m)
Jazz ($750k)
Rojas, Wendle ($9m)
Anderson ($4.5m)
Sanchez, D. Peralta ($8.75m)
Ketel ($10m)
Garcia, DLC ($14m)
=$60+ million

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera ($10m)
Floro, Bender, Bass, Pop, Head ($7m)
Bleier, Smith, Okert ($5m)
=22m

Total - $82+ million. Only Peralta and Bass are free agents after the season, and arbitration gains would be nominal from Anderson, Floro, Stallings, Smith, etc. Could easily shed Aguilar/Cooper/Bleier, and get this around $60-65m+ and needing 3-4 players (if even that, as Bleday, Sixto, Lewin, etc. could just move on up). Basically, next offseason might be amazing to get luxury upgrades if the kids work out.

I think you can easily argue that's a 40 WAR team on paper, with upside to add a lot more with Jazz/Sanchez/Luzardo/Cabrera/Sixto/Bleday breakouts.

[sports24/7]

Marte would be a nice get. It sounds like he'll be expensive to trade for, but that contract is crazy cheap. If it were me, I'd see if Pablo as the main piece would get him.

Also, as an interesting aside on Pablo, my sister told me his wife just got a job at her school. I said, she may not be there for long, as he could get traded. She said that apparently she said that, and also said the Marlins haven't treated him well. I have no idea what the hell she would mean by that.

[Nick]

We should have them include Melancon who the D-Backs just signed for some god damn reason.

[lou]

Marte would be a nice get. It sounds like he'll be expensive to trade for, but that contract is crazy cheap. If it were me, I'd see if Pablo as the main piece would get him.

Also, as an interesting aside on Pablo, my sister told me his wife just got a job at her school. I said, she may not be there for long, as he could get traded. She said that apparently she said that, and also said the Marlins haven't treated him well. I have no idea what the hell she would mean by that.

They could try Pablo, but they have to deal with LAD/SFG/SDP right now. I think Arizona knows they need guys with 5-6 years of control as they have no shot for a year or two. If they'll take him, sure, but I'd be surprised. It's why I think Meyer/Watson/Eury level guys gets it done in this hypothetical.

I think it means Sandy just got $56m dollars with the same service time and Pablo is looking at a $3m arbitration tender and no longterm contract. There is obviously a difference between the two as Sandy has stayed healthy two full seasons and Pablo not even close, but I can see some jealously/frustration as Pablo is very good in his own right. Maybe they should offer him like 5/$40, and also have a 6th year $20 million option on it. It has to be notably less than Sandy, but not too low to give away too many years. Maybe that's what he wants.

[lou]

We should have them include Melancon who the D-Backs just signed for some god damn reason.

It is a very bizarre signing for a non-contender. Maybe they think some backend stability to start the year and then trading him at the deadline with another year of control is worth it for whatever prospects they get.

[fish16]

ketel marte makes so much sense. since this new regime took over there have been a handful of teams that it seems like we have good chemistry with in trades for some reason- rays, Yankees, blue jays, d backs. Have made a number of trades with a few of them and have seemingly been in discussions with others a lot.

D backs make a ton of sense and as much as I think pablo makes sense to trade, it seems like they value him as either a keeper or think due to the injuries the value in a trade isnt worth it at this moment and I cant really disagree there. If he can put together a healthy year it would obviously be a huge benefit to the team next year but also his trade value. Plus he would still have I think 2 more years of team control so his value would be high. Given the d backs are in a rebuild, a full prospect trade where we unload a bunch of guys for marte and maybe some fillers (either a flier on an arm or a few relievers to bolster the bullpen) makes so much sense for each side. Marte and fillers (caleb coming back makes sense) for Meyer, Burdick, Salas/Lewis, Mccambley I think would make sense for each team. Marte would really be a missing piece and, at this point, would be the best combo of impact, not having to spend huge in free agency, and ability to trade solely from prospect depth without giving up a major league piece and allow us to keep the quality rotation depth already established in the majors to pair with the remaining SP prospects like Eury, Cabrera, etc.

C- Stallings
1b- Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS_ Rojas
3b- Anderson
LF-Sanchez
CF-Marte
RF- Garcia
DH- Cooper and Aguilar

SP- Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Sixto, Cabrera, Elieser, Luzardo, leftover SP's.

Another guy from the dbacks that might make sense if we are willing to eat some salary (Dbacks eating a little of it)- Bumgarner. Still has stuff left in the tank, innings eater to bolster the rotation with a quality veteran, and I can see the dbacks finding it best to get rid of most of his salary for the next 3 years.

That's a playoff team and while not star powered, that's a deep and good lineup with the potential for more if Sanchez, Jazz, and Lewin take another step.

[sports24/7]

I think it means Sandy just got $56m dollars with the same service time and Pablo is looking at a $3m arbitration tender and no longterm contract. There is obviously a difference between the two as Sandy has stayed healthy two full seasons and Pablo not even close, but I can see some jealously/frustration as Pablo is very good in his own right. Maybe they should offer him like 5/$40, and also have a 6th year $20 million option on it. It has to be notably less than Sandy, but not too low to give away too many years. Maybe that's what he wants.

She told her this a couple of weeks ago, though. So before the Sandy deal was completed. Even still, it would be weird to say they treated him badly just because he didn’t get a deal and Sandy did. I would think on most teams he wouldn’t get a good extension yet with the injury questions.

[Lee Stone]

Per baseballtradevalues.com, Meyer and Bleday, the two top draft picks, are an exact match in trade value for Ketel Marte.

On the rumor of Pablo Lopez discontent about not getting an extension: It seems perfectly logical that he would feel that way. Injury concerns can be addressed in a contract with incentives for innings pitched etc. We see it all the time. He's a great guy and consummate pro.

[lou]

Per baseballtradevalues.com, Meyer and Bleday, the two top draft picks, are an exact match in trade value for Ketel Marte.

On the rumor of Pablo Lopez discontent about not getting an extension: It seems perfectly logical that he would feel that way. Injury concerns can be addressed in a contract with incentives for innings pitched etc. We see it all the time. He's a great guy and consummate pro.

That website sucks Lee. Ketel probably has a surplus value in the range of $90-100m right now. They have him in the 30s. That's insane. The minimum is Rogers in a 1-1 (obviously would never happen) or double centerpieces. Centerpieces - Jazz, Meyer, Cabrera, Watson, and if they like them in an eye of the beholder scenario, Eury (meteoric rise, may be too soon), Sixto (injury concern), Bleday, Sanchez, Salas, and Eder.

It's 2 of the bolds, and the fight comes down to can you give them Eury/Sixto instead of Watson as the 2nd player. Meyer/Cabrera is definitely the starting point. The only alternative I can think of is Meyer/Cabrera and two of the non-bolds - Bleday/Sanchez and Salas/Eder. Is keeping Watson worth one of them? Hard to say whats a smarter dart throw and if they'd go for it.

I stand by thing I posted yesterday:

Ketel, Caleb, and eating Peralta

Meyer/Cabrera, Watson, Elisier, Burdick, and 3 throw ins (McCambley, Neidert, I. Diaz, etc.)

I think it's something like that, and if Caleb makes it too complicated, you take out either Elisier/Burdick it's a 6-2 scenario

I'd laugh hard if something like this happened and the DBacks summer rotation is Bumgarner and.... Gallen, Meyer, Elisier, and Neidert.

[fish16]

meyer/cabrera AND watson is far too much

[Lee Stone]

Disagree on the value of that website. I followed trades over the last couple years and they were consistently close. Ketel Marte seems like an easy guy to value at about $36M. He has three years left on his contract at $10M per. On the open market he might get $22M a year, so that's a surplus value of $12M a year, or $36M.

[lou]

meyer/cabrera AND watson is far too much

It's not enough and we're over valuing our own prospects if we think otherwise. They'd need to throw in another good third player and eat some money from them somewhere. At a minimum. It's basically the Yelich trade (as the Marlins undersold Yelich from day 1, plus recent inflation in trades). Whose Isan Diaz prospect wise on the current Marlins? Bleday? Burdick? Fulton?

Ketel has a 4 year average per 600/PA of 4.3 WAR. The 3 year average is 5.2 WAR. He was on a 4.7 WAR pace last season. He had a 7 WAR season in 2019. Seven(!). He's 28 years old. The other 7 WAR seasons in Marlins history - Stanton 2017, Hanley 2009, and Hanley 2008. That's it. You can't find this upside. If he's available, you sell the house.