2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

I’m surprised at the attitude towards this trade here. It’s being celebrated as a nice move for the Marlins everywhere else. Yankees fans are pissed they missed out on him. The guy is a fantastic defensive catcher (he had 21 defensive runs saved last year!), and was probably the best one they could have acquired. Would a Moreno or Campusano have big upside? Sure. But they want to compete now, and this guy helps them do that. I also don’t understand the question about how much better do we want our starters to be. I know I’d like to see them be as good as possible. I’d like to see someone who knows what they’re doing behind the plate handle guys like Cabrera and Luzardo. We knew they needed a catcher, and I don’t know who else people expected that was realistically available, that would have been better AND cost such a relatively low price.

the Yankees fans are fine to be pissed because they are in a completely different situation. They have a mega lineup already and are probably going to add correa soon. sanchez is bad defensively and they already have the DH spot guaranteed and don't need much offense. We do.

Also the price was kind of high given Stallings production. Scott looked really good this year in beloit after a slow start at just 21 in A+ ball. nicolas probably isn't a starter long term but he has a major league future, and zach thompson had a really nice year and him and elieser piggy backing every 5th day would have been.a good 5th starter combo if necessary. All for a 32 year old catcher who cant hit.

[Nick]

Holy shit at the deal Seager got.

[fish16]

Stallings had the fifth highest WAR among NL catchers last season (per fangraphs), well ahead of Willson Contreras and Carson Kelly. He's a major league average hitter, not bad for a catcher. That said, I think Pittsburg did a good job in the negotiations.as well. Both teams can point to the deal with pride.

Based on that same Fangraphs WAR, Stallings had the fourth highest rating of all Marlins for the 2021 season, behind only 1) Rogers 2) Alcantara and 3) Avisail Garcia. For those looking for the upside of the two Marlins deals, they acquired the team's two best position players based on Fangraphs compilations.

stallings has never been better than a 95 OPS+, meaning he's never been better than 5% worse than the major league average hitting catcher. he's a flat out bad hitter, and unlike alfaro he has 0 power whatsoever.

[sports24/7]

the Yankees fans are fine to be pissed because they are in a completely different situation. They have a mega lineup already and are probably going to add correa soon. sanchez is bad defensively and they already have the DH spot guaranteed and don't need much offense. We do.

Also the price was kind of high given Stallings production. Scott looked really good this year in beloit after a slow start at just 21 in A+ ball. nicolas probably isn't a starter long term but he has a major league future, and zach thompson had a really nice year and him and elieser piggy backing every 5th day would have been.a good 5th starter combo if necessary. All for a 32 year old catcher who cant hit.

But you’re not banking on a ton of hitting from the catcher position. He’s arguably one of the 10 best catchers in the league despite meager hitting. In today’s MLB catchers who can hit and field are serious outliers. Assuming the Marlins add more hitting elsewhere, you take a guy like this and run. I guess there’s potential for any of the guys they gave up to eventually be something but the odds are against that. To me, as long as you’re not close to being done, this is a good move that aligns well with a young team, and a young pitching staff.

[Nick]

With the way things have played out, best case scenario is we sign Chris Taylor and while I like Taylor, in my mind that does not get us anywhere near a playoff caliber lineup. Just not seeing the willingness or funds to make a big splash.

[sports24/7]

With the way things have played out, best case scenario is we sign Chris Taylor and while I like Taylor, in my mind that does not get us anywhere near a playoff caliber lineup. Just not seeing the willingness or funds to make a big splash.

They still have essentially all of their best trade chips still. If that’s it, then I agree it’s not enough. But the way Mish has been talking, it feels like there’s still the biggest domino yet to fall, and I don’t think that’s just Taylor.

[lou]

in what world is jacob fucking stallings and jorge alfaro a top 10 catcher combo? Neither can hit. among catchers with at least 70 PA's last year, stallings had the 29th best WRC+. its a really bad, uninspiring, ridiculously low upside trade. Does it help the defense? of course. does it help the offense? Not all that much if at all. Stallings has been a legitimately below average hitter for 3 straight years as a starter, has absolutely no power, and realistically could be a worse hitter than alfaro if he bounces back next year. He is the type of guy that would have been super overrated in the late 90s and mid 2000s and the kind of guy most teams have trended away from the last few years as fewer and fewer of these all defense no bat catchers get significant AB's.

I saw someone cheering how much this helps the pitching staff. we had one of the best rotations in the league last year with the catcher play we already had. was an upgrade needed? Absolutely, but the defense wasn't where the upgrade was most desperately needed. We will be fortunate given the likely return of the DH, but if for some reason it is not back next year, this move is a complete disaster and our lineup is already 2 bad bats guaranteed to be in the lineup every day. We have prospect depth and there are several established guys like Garver or Kelly available or you could have gotten an upper minors prospect with years of team control and not really impacted the top part of the farm much. Instead we got a 31 going on 32 year old career bad hitter who will improve our catching defense only. From a team that needs impact bats more than almost any other team in the league, they got a bad hitting catcher who will be 32 years old at the beginning of next year. And they kind of gave up way too much to get him. just a truly disappointing, low upside, bad fucking trade.

The world is - this reality. Stallings was 10th in WAR last year (2.6), Alfaro 34th (.6). That is 3.2 WAR in just under 750 PA. Their steamer projections next year are 3.4 WAR in approx. 700 PA. 2.6 / .8.

2021, a 3.2 WAR for the catcher position was tied for 9th best. In 2019, that's tied for 10th. If we want to say 750 PA is high (it is), the worst this could scale back to is 11th in 2021 and 12th in 2019.

So, I can move that to - it's a top 12 combo. The range is probably 6th-12th, although they probably fall on the back end of that as the only upside is Alfaro power. If we project them for literally who they are (Stallings is supporting this production over his last 800 PA, Alfaro is undersold is anything), they are going to be a back end top 8-12 combo easily.

You talk about hitting, but defense counts and Stallings is one of the best defenders in all of baseball. Not catchers - all players. Production is production. Also, defensive framing may suggest the pitching may be even better and we can't even measure that.

I can appreciate looking for offense/higher ceilings, but at the same time, Stallings brings a super duper high floor. I think pairing him with an offensive guy would be awesome. I'd say Alfaro fits that mold, but it looks like are trading him. Maybe Gary Sanchez is still in play, and give him 50 games behind the plate at 81 DH'ing. Hell, buy super low on Danny Jansen (Elisier Hernandez?). They have other catchers and he's turning 27 with 3 years of control. He has real power (33 HR / 831 PA / 3.9 WAR / .230 career BABIP) and if that BABIP normalizes, watch out. Who knows, but they may not be done here. I can't imagine they think Jackson/Fortes is the # 2. # 3, sure.

Also, you are assuming guys like Garver, Kelly, Campusano, and Moreno are available. I find it unlikely the prospects are, but maybe Kelly is. Harder to peg Garver.

You are way too angry on this, but I do think they might have given up too much with Nicolas but we'll see.

[lou]

But you’re not banking on a ton of hitting from the catcher position. He’s arguably one of the 10 best catchers in the league despite meager hitting. In today’s MLB catchers who can hit and field are serious outliers. Assuming the Marlins add more hitting elsewhere, you take a guy like this and run. I guess there’s potential for any of the guys they gave up to eventually be something but the odds are against that. To me, as long as you’re not close to being done, this is a good move that aligns well with a young team, and a young pitching staff.

Yes. They need more. They need to get 10+ WAR this offseason minimum. Right now, they've probably gotten 5+ with Garcia, Stallings, and Head, and losing Thompson. This is likely 3-4 more guys (CF, bench upgrade or two, lefty reliever), and add another arm if they are moving one of Pablo/Elisier/Floro/Bleier in deals.

[Nick]

We've definitely established that Alfaro is not an offensive guy.

[lou]

We've definitely established that Alfaro is not an offensive guy.

Let me rephrase - he has a lot of raw power/hit tool potential if he ever makes contact. Also a well above athlete for the position to let his ability take over if things click. He plays good defense and catchers sometimes bloom late. He's a high floor, high upside backup for 2022.

I'd rather trade for ANOTHER catcher - even Kelly or Garver or Jansen or Sanchez - and let one of those guys DH part of the time (and ditch Cooper and one of them can be 3rd string DH and bring it another infielder), but Alfaro isn't as bad as some make him. He's just a backup who ever figured it out, but he's still young.

[Nick]

Gary Sanchez definitely makes a lot of sense as a yin to Stallings' yang.

[fish16]

Gary Sanchez definitely makes a lot of sense as a yin to Stallings' yang.

I don't like stallings or sanchez by themselves, but as a combo I wouldn't mind that at all. as long as I never have to watch alfaro again I'm good.

[sports24/7]

From Mish: “I get the sense the Marlins are done for the day but I think tomorrow will bring more news. They are definitely not done. From an MLB perspective I’m not sure how anyone can doze off at this point.”

Interesting. I guess they’re going to try and get as much done before the lockout as possible.

[emkayseven]

This dude covered the reds in the 70s and said stallings is the best defensive catcher he’s seen since Bench https://twitter.com/bhertzel/status/...973163521?s=21

[emkayseven]

Taylor makes a ton of sense from a FA perspective as he can play CF and move around over the next few years, but I think we need him plus one other bat, or ditch Taylor and find a big bat to trade for. Even still, in those scenarios, everything would need to break just right for the offense to be good enough to break into the playoffs.

I’m encouraged because Thompson and Nicolas were never our big trade chips so we still have all the ammunition we were coming into the offseason with. If they’re banking on universal DH and not convinced Cooper can play a full season then they have the space for a CF (or LF if they think Garcia can man center, which I think is a huge mistake) and another bat anywhere. They need to do that. Still hoping they sign a veteran pitcher — I have a soft spot for Rodon — and then a solid RP. Stallings and Garcia along with the Sandy extension are a real solid start. Now let’s finish strong.