2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Reportedly they're "getting really close" on some sort of extension with Rojas.

[Todd]

Rojas is 33 before spring training even starts and bang average whose value comes from defense. He really adds nothing to the Marlins but is also the type of player a team might overpay for.

Extending him would be asinine.

[Nick]

Nobody is going to overpay for Rojas. Extending him 1-2 more years at $4 or 5 million per is fine.

It gets us no closer to accomplishing what we need to accomplish this offseason though.

[rmc523]

Nobody is going to overpay for Rojas. Extending him 1-2 more years at $4 or 5 million per is fine.

It gets us no closer to accomplishing what we need to accomplish this offseason though.

Yeah, It's not going to be any mega deal, so I don't worry about it from that perspective, but it's nice to see them thinking about/working on extending players. It does indicate to an extent that they're willing to extend players they want to keep around, which is good.

100% agree, that gets maybe 1% closer to what needs to be done. Much more needs to be done.

[lou]

I don't mind a Rojas extension if it's cheap. Preferably they give him 2023 and it's another club option in 2024. Even better if there is a 2022 signing bonus to keep him cheaper later on. They have PLENTY of money in 22 to use it as a weapon to help the future. Even if his defense slips, he's probably a 1.5 WAR player for 2-3 more years.

Also remember, a salary floor is being pitched so they may be getting ahead of that and trying to secure some of their own guys (cough Sandy).

[Lee Stone]

I don't mind a Rojas extension if it's cheap. Preferably they give him 2023 and it's another club option in 2024. Even better if there is a 2022 signing bonus to keep him cheaper later on. They have PLENTY of money in 22 to use it as a weapon to help the future. Even if his defense slips, he's probably a 1.5 WAR player for 2-3 more years.

Also remember, a salary floor is being pitched so they may be getting ahead of that and trying to secure some of their own guys (cough Sandy).

I've got us at zero chance of agreeing to an extension with Alcantara. I foresee trading him to the Blue Jays for their young catcher Moreno (Just Baseball has him as a top ten overall prospect).

[lou]

I've got us at zero chance of agreeing to an extension with Alcantara. I foresee trading him to the Blue Jays for their young catcher Moreno (Just Baseball has him as a top ten overall prospect).

I have a difficult time believing a guy with Sandy's background (dropped out of school to play baseball) will pass up $50m-ish to get a $5m tender, and hope to land an epic payday in 2025 after the Marlins pitch him into the ground if he doesn't sign it. I think once the Marlins hit 5/$40+, it's all details and it gets done. It's the Aaron Nola contract ($45mish). It's that easy. Nola was better than Sandy, but it's a few years later and innings are more important now. It's a wash give or take a few million. I strongly feel this gets done. Sandy gets money for life and is still a free agent at 30. It's perfect all around. He isn't a bat like Lindor. It's a monumental failure on Sandy's agent and Marlins part if this doesn't get done for each of them.

Ignoring trading HIM of all people on the team is a fan-death sentence absent incredible other moves, the Blue Jays don't have the goods to trade for Sandy unless Bichette gets on the table. Moreno is a 2nd piece for him, not a first one. And that's no disrespect to him. That is respecting what Sandy is and the years of control.

You can get me interested for Moreno with Pablo. They also have a very good 3B prospect (Groshans) which will be VERY welcome to the system. They also have a perfect salary dump - Grichuk (2/$20.6) who they'd love to shed I'm sure. I think you could do something like Pablo and Bass, for Moreno, Groshans, and Grichuk and something close to that gets it done with preferred throw-ins. Eating that money is big for Toronto in my eyes, and means jack shit to the Marlins bottom line. Net money with that trade goes up maybe $4m for 2022, and then you can immediately DFA/Trade Cooper/Aguilar in another deal and it's very close to a wash. You get real hope at catcher, you get a real Anderson replacement in a year or two, and you get better positional value with Grichuk versus Cooper/Aguilar. I don't love him, but he can mash and isn't embarrassing. This one would be interesting for sure. If they could sign S. Marte on top of this, or trade for Buxton with lower guys, that gets real interesting very fast.

[sports24/7]

I have a difficult time believing a guy with Sandy's background (dropped out of school to play baseball) will pass up $50m-ish to get a $5m tender, and hope to land an epic payday in 2025 after the Marlins pitch him into the ground if he doesn't sign it. I think once the Marlins hit 5/$40+, it's all details and it gets done. It's the Aaron Nola contract ($45mish). It's that easy. Nola was better than Sandy, but it's a few years later and innings are more important now. It's a wash give or take a few million. I strongly feel this gets done. Sandy gets money for life and is still a free agent at 30. It's perfect all around. He isn't a bat like Lindor. It's a monumental failure on Sandy's agent and Marlins part if this doesn't get done for each of them.

Ignoring trading HIM of all people on the team is a fan-death sentence absent incredible other moves, the Blue Jays don't have the goods to trade for Sandy unless Bichette gets on the table. Moreno is a 2nd piece for him, not a first one. And that's no disrespect to him. That is respecting what Sandy is and the years of control.

You can get me interested for Moreno with Pablo. They also have a very good 3B prospect (Groshans) which will be VERY welcome to the system. They also have a perfect salary dump - Grichuk (2/$20.6) who they'd love to shed I'm sure. I think you could do something like Pablo and Bass, for Moreno, Groshans, and Grichuk and something close to that gets it done with preferred throw-ins. Eating that money is big for Toronto in my eyes, and means jack shit to the Marlins bottom line. Net money with that trade goes up maybe $4m for 2022, and then you can immediately DFA/Trade Cooper/Aguilar in another deal and it's very close to a wash. You get real hope at catcher, you get a real Anderson replacement in a year or two, and you get better positional value with Grichuk versus Cooper/Aguilar. I don't love him, but he can mash and isn't embarrassing. This one would be interesting for sure. If they could sign S. Marte on top of this, or trade for Buxton with lower guys, that gets real interesting very fast.

FWIW, Mish said on one of his podcasts that he was pretty certain they’d get a deal done and that Sandy would even probably take a little bit of a home town discount. Even with my distrust of them spending any money, I’d be stunned if they don’t get him signed long term this offseason.

[Lee Stone]

Summing things up on Alcantara: Three years of arb may likely go $5M, $8M and $12M. His agent would probably want $20M each for two added years. So five years and $65M would probably be peak value. I don't think the Marlins go there. Signing him to such a deal would actually decrease his trade value IMO.

[lou]

Summing things up on Alcantara: Three years of arb may likely go $5M, $8M and $12M. His agent would probably want $20M each for two added years. So five years and $65M would probably be peak value. I don't think the Marlins go there. Signing him to such a deal would actually decrease his trade value IMO.

I don't think the Marlins will go there either because they won't need to go anywhere near there. The Marlins have all the leverage here as they can pay him $5m bucks and move on to next year. That doesn't help Sandy at all, as he could always get hurt and then all of a sudden those arbitration tenders get radically cut into - like Anderson and Pablo who they are going to get for much cheaper than they should. Or worse, that's all he gets because he becomes ineffective and really blows his arm out. The Marlins get little to no benefit out of your deal so there is no reason to do it. You'd just take him to arbitration and now you have 2/$40 to work with in 2025 which is a great player. Now, if Sandy has dreams of a $200m contract, that's his own choice and he can turn it down and hope for the best. But I think that's insane for a pitcher who can still be a free agent in his prime and lock in over $40-50m guaranteed today. Lock it up. You are set for life and so are your grandkids. You can still get a 9 digit deal when you are 30. Look at Scott Kingery - 6/$24m before he really played. One of the smartest decisions a player made in recent history. These deals make sense.

It's going to be 5/$45ish, give or take $5m in either direction depending on how compelling we want to make (1) a statistical comparison to Nola (Nola blows him away), versus (ii) general inflation and innings taking greater importance in the new world over of waves of relievers, combined with (iii) no state income tax and potentially getting some of a signing bonus in 2021 which is likely a better tax rate to save even more on a portion of it.

Also, I would think of it as a guy will get 50-66% of his expected "peak" value in these types of deals after 1-3 years of service time. That'll scale a bit higher once you get after year 4 as you are that much closer to free agency. It's certainly not 100% in any scenario. The player has little leverage. Getting into the $40-50m range is going to fall into that range very easily for Sandy for the years we are talking about here. Frankly, this is gonna happen and everyone is going to be happy with the win-win.

I think the larger arbitration buyout questions are, do you try and lowball Rogers, Jazz, Sanchez, Pablo, and Anderson on deals, because you have those first three for 5 years from free agency so they may take a Kingery type of deal (or Brandon Lowe, also 6/$24 but two $10m-ish options on back of that and through his age 31 year season), and Pablo and Anderson may be opportunistic buy-lows with the recent injury history. Personally, I think I'd try with Rogers (call it 5/$30-ish with 2 options to get over $50m, free agent at 31 with all options), Pablo (call it 4/$22-ish, with 1 option to get into mid $30m, he's a free agent at 31 with option), and Anderson (call it 4/$28, with a club option to get it over $40m. This buys out his prime and he is a free agent at 34 with the option), and pass on Jazz and Sanchez for a year as I like them, but let's see a repeat and improvement as they are more volatile. Those deals are definitely tougher for the players to take, but it's also life changing money so they'd have to consider it strongly for where they are (remember when Albies took 7/$35, up to 9/$45m? He probably left more than double that on the table and it's borderline egregious how Atlanta took advantage of him). The Marlins don't need to do anything with those guys yet so it's really slanted to being club friendly. That's where my interest is with arbitration strategy. It ain't Sandy. That one is easy.

[sports24/7]

Chris Taylor might be pricing himself out of the Marlins' range with his postseason.

[rmc523]

Both Trey Hillman and assistant hitting coach Robert Rodriguez won't be back next year.

[rmc523]

Mish is reporting Rojas' extension will be 2 years, $10M/through the 2023 season, so effectively an extra $4.5M on top of the $5.5M he was scheduled to make for '22.

[sports24/7]

Mish is reporting Rojas' extension will be 2 years, $10M/through the 2023 season, so effectively an extra $4.5M on top of the $5.5M he was scheduled to make for '22.

That's a pretty fair deal, and should mean they're looking for an upgrade in the next year or so, which is what they should probably be doing.

[fish16]

good deal for rojas. jj bleday and misner are playing really well in the AFL