2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

My CF target: Jose Siri. Astros property currently. Picked him up for nothing last December, where he was one of top DWL performers (way better than Lewin and Jesus.) Siri played on same AAA team as De La Cruz in '21, but hit even better and brings better defense (speed for CF and base-stealing.) Hit very well in September call up for Stros. Might get him for somebody like Floro.

[lou]

My CF target: Jose Siri. Astros property currently. Picked him up for nothing last December, where he was one of top DWL performers (way better than Lewin and Jesus.) Siri played on same AAA team as De La Cruz in '21, but hit even better and brings better defense (speed for CF and base-stealing.) Hit very well in September call up for Stros. Might get him for somebody like Floro.

No Lee. Fringe FV40 prospects who had a .436 BABIP in close to 397 PA in AAA are not answers to any questions.

They need real options - playoff calibre options - at CF and one other of C/2B/SS/3B/OF. That's the minimum.

No more prospects, unless it's a former top 25 overall guy like Marsh who is ready right now. No hopes and prayers. Immediate production or vast upside with an elite 23 year old.

[Lee Stone]

A former top 25 overall guy ... like JJ? Keeping it real, Bryan De La Cruz was better in both AAA and MLB than Marsh in '21. Siri was better than De La Cruz.

[Nick]

lou, not sure if you remember, but Lee Stone's prospect evaluation strategy is whatever you've done over the last two months is what you'll be for the rest of your career, scouting, peripherals be damned.

This is despite him looking foolish over and over again, this is what he still goes with.

[Lee Stone]

lou, not sure if you remember, but Lee Stone's prospect evaluation strategy is whatever you've done over the last two months is what you'll be for the rest of your career, scouting, peripherals be damned.

This is despite him looking foolish over and over again, this is what he still goes with.

Let's go with the entire 2021 season instead of two months, which is what I did. And I am far from foolish. I would like to see you (or anyone) build a case for Brandon Marsh. MLB Pipeline etc. are consistently off base.

P.S. We will now be able to compare JJ Didn't Pay with my tout CJ Abrams. Both will be playing in the Arizona Fall League.

[lou]

lou, not sure if you remember, but Lee Stone's prospect evaluation strategy is whatever you've done over the last two months is what you'll be for the rest of your career, scouting, peripherals be damned.

This is despite him looking foolish over and over again, this is what he still goes with.

I do remember, but I'm hoping it sticks one day

[lou]

Let's go with the entire 2021 season instead of two months, which is what I did. And I am far from foolish. I would like to see you (or anyone) build a case for Brandon Marsh. MLB Pipeline etc. are consistently off base.

P.S. We will now be able to compare JJ Didn't Pay with my tout CJ Abrams. Both will be playing in the Arizona Fall League.

Siri had a .436 BABIP in AAA. He hit .318. Best case scenario is he is a low .200 hitter in AAA. That'll get worse at MLB level. He's also 25/26 years old and had a 6/30% K/BB rate in AAA. He's probably not even a good AAA player, let alone a MLB option. You wouldn't trade a top 50 pitcher in the Marlins organization for him, let alone Floro. He's a depth guy, that's it. Rafael Ortega at best and that's generous.

Marsh hit .255/.364/.468 in AAA last year (small sample size), sustainable .339 BABIP, walked 14.5% BB rate, 26.4% K rate. He's 23. That's solid, and astronomically better than Siri. He got an aggressive promotion and held his own at MLB level even if it wasn't lights out. Have you ever considered guys struggle at level promotions? Major upside potential exists. You take your shots on guys like this. This is how you get Sandy, Jazz, and Sanchez. It's also how you also get Brinson, Harrison, and Diaz, but that's why baseball is hard and teams don't win world series for decades.

This is a night and day situation. Marsh is the equivalent of Sixto/Cabrera (is he bad?)/Meyer/Watson, and Siri is like the equivalent of Brian Miller at best.


Also, I think everyone would take Abrams over Bleday today, but we'll see what happens. Bleday had a nice BB/K (13%/21%) and a .250 BABIP (.212 AVG). If balls drop in play or those grounders sneak through, he's going to take a big jump forward quickly. Let's hope they figure out his swing. But, if you want to parade around saying you were right about Abrams over Bleday as proof of some sort of scouting pedigree, you also have to accept the plethora of bad takes. And this here, is one of the more insane ones along with whatever that catcher was you loved who I already forgot his name you thought was an all star.

[Todd]

Someone correct me if I am wrong but didn't Bleday also have the fewest pitches in the zone thrown to him in the minors? He was essentially never given anything to hit.

[Lee Stone]

Siri had a .436 BABIP in AAA. He hit .318. Best case scenario is he is a low .200 hitter in AAA. That'll get worse at MLB level. He's also 25/26 years old and had a 6/30% K/BB rate in AAA. He's probably not even a good AAA player, let alone a MLB option. You wouldn't trade a top 50 pitcher in the Marlins organization for him, let alone Floro. He's a depth guy, that's it. Rafael Ortega at best and that's generous.

Marsh hit .255/.364/.468 in AAA last year (small sample size), sustainable .339 BABIP, walked 14.5% BB rate, 26.4% K rate. He's 23. That's solid, and astronomically better than Siri. He got an aggressive promotion and held his own at MLB level even if it wasn't lights out. Have you ever considered guys struggle at level promotions? Major upside potential exists. You take your shots on guys like this. This is how you get Sandy, Jazz, and Sanchez. It's also how you also get Brinson, Harrison, and Diaz, but that's why baseball is hard and teams don't win world series for decades.

This is a night and day situation. Marsh is the equivalent of Sixto/Cabrera (is he bad?)/Meyer/Watson, and Siri is like the equivalent of Brian Miller at best.


Also, I think everyone would take Abrams over Bleday today, but we'll see what happens. Bleday had a nice BB/K (13%/21%) and a .250 BABIP (.212 AVG). If balls drop in play or those grounders sneak through, he's going to take a big jump forward quickly. Let's hope they figure out his swing. But, if you want to parade around saying you were right about Abrams over Bleday as proof of some sort of scouting pedigree, you also have to accept the plethora of bad takes. And this here, is one of the more insane ones along with whatever that catcher was you loved who I already forgot his name you thought was an all star.

Conversing with a half dozen posters is hard to see as "parading" around, but whatever makes you happy to say ... There were two catchers that the Marlins released from AAA that I talked about as interesting prospects that were perhaps dismissed prematurely. The one you are doubtless referring to is Tyler Heinemann, who was subsequently signed by SF and another team or two. Much like all the catchers on the Marlins, he never panned out. The other was Austin Nola, who the Marlins spent a couple years teaching to catch. He found success in Seattle and now starts for San Diego.

I thought Ortega looked very promising as a Marlin. He was the best hitter on the Cubs in '21, putting up major league numbers that were identical to his career numbers in the minors. He would have been a significant improvement in CF for the Marlins this season.

A final word on Siri. It is my guess that the Marlins asked for him at the deadline and settled for De La Cruz. Marlins would have preferred a CF. No way of knowing the answer to that however.

[Nick]

Conversing with a half dozen posters is hard to see as "parading" around, but whatever makes you happy to say ... There were two catchers that the Marlins released from AAA that I talked about as interesting prospects that were perhaps dismissed prematurely. The one you are doubtless referring to is Tyler Heinemann, who was subsequently signed by SF and another team or two. Much like all the catchers on the Marlins, he never panned out. The other was Austin Nola, who the Marlins spent a couple years teaching to catch. He found success in Seattle and now starts for San Diego.

You never said a word about Nola until after he was gone and finding success.

[Todd]

What Lee Stone looks for in a "prospect":
1. Be pushing 30
2. Be generally mediocre organizational filler for most of their careers
3. Have a hot 2 month stretch

[lou]

Someone correct me if I am wrong but didn't Bleday also have the fewest pitches in the zone thrown to him in the minors? He was essentially never given anything to hit.

I didn't see that, but that's interesting. Burdick was the only guy who hit at all in AA last year, so you could see teams pitching around them as the only "threats" in the lineup.

No idea what happened with Bleday this year, but I'm personally giving everyone a pandemic mulligan. If he doesn't hit again, looks like another probable bust for his draft position. But I have cautious optimism with the .250 BABIP, 13.7% BB rate, and 21.6% K rate. That is well above average pitch selection and the balls not dropping. Maybe they are all weak contact grounders which is one thing, but I'd like to imagine they can find the right swing/mechanics and let the athleticism take over. Of course, that never worked for Brinson or Harrison.

I'm happy if they get two starting outfielders (2.5+ WAR), even if not stars, from Sanchez, Bleday, Burdick, Misner, Scott, and any other more fringe guy like De La Cruz. They are in good organizational shape if they get 2.

[Lee Stone]

I didn't see that, but that's interesting. Burdick was the only guy who hit at all in AA last year, so you could see teams pitching around them as the only "threats" in the lineup.

No idea what happened with Bleday this year, but I'm personally giving everyone a pandemic mulligan. If he doesn't hit again, looks like another probable bust for his draft position. But I have cautious optimism with the .250 BABIP, 13.7% BB rate, and 21.6% K rate. That is well above average pitch selection and the balls not dropping. Maybe they are all weak contact grounders which is one thing, but I'd like to imagine they can find the right swing/mechanics and let the athleticism take over. Of course, that never worked for Brinson or Harrison.

I'm happy if they get two starting outfielders (2.5+ WAR), even if not stars, from Sanchez, Bleday, Burdick, Misner, Scott, and any other more fringe guy like De La Cruz. They are in good organizational shape if they get 2.

Other than Jesus Sanchez, it's hard to project who another genuine OF prospect might be. Bleday trails the modest MiLB history of former all hit tool draftee Colin Moran. While Moran has actually played in the majors the last several years, he sits at O WAR for his career. Burdick needs to progress a lot to be a ML asset - it's hard to see him as a regular for the Marlins. Scott is a couple years younger than the others and is hard to group with them. Given that he's young, can throw and run, and progressed nicely in September, I'd give him the best odds at developing into a solid big leaguer.

[AdamRavs]

If the Marlins spend money. Which i will believe when I see it. But I think BA should move to the OF. Put him in Left. Sanchez in right. Sign a CF and a 3b with pop. Seager? We've gotta get more pop from 3rd.

Trade or cut Aguilar. Coop and Lewin platoon. With the return of the DH Coop is going to be valuable to us.

[Lee Stone]

If the Marlins spend money. Which i will believe when I see it. But I think BA should move to the OF. Put him in Left. Sanchez in right. Sign a CF and a 3b with pop. Seager? We've gotta get more pop from 3rd.

Trade or cut Aguilar. Coop and Lewin platoon. With the return of the DH Coop is going to be valuable to us.

If Anderson doesn't give you enough pop at third (and he doesn't), how does he give you enough punch in the OF? I think Anderson's time with the club may be nearing an end.

What are your thoughts on Miguel Rojas? See him as a starter in '22?