7/18 - 7/24 Minor League Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

The Encarnacion rating was by far the most ridiculous thing about you're ranking, it was then and is now. I also had a problem with you having Gallen #1, and I still do. I like him, but after seeing him in the majors you still think he's the best prospect we have?

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Also, Isan Diaz. Not on your list.

Admittedly, Encarnacion was a reach. I looked at a minor league system that was devoid of any bats other than Dean and Ramirez and saw a big, powerful guy who was leading the Midwest League in hitting. His performance jumped out even more in a lineup that featured no other bats at all.

Gallen emerged as a different pitcher this year, improved in every aspect of his game. His AAA numbers this season were probably unprecedented for any Marlin ever. Like all the rest of the young Marlin pitchers, he has lost command/confidence at the major league level. If he can reduce his walk rate to what it was at NO, he'll be very good for the Marlins.

Diaz struggled at New Orleans last year and struggled again for the first month or two this year. He has certainly put things together better than anyone could have predicted.

[Nick]

Admittedly, Encarnacion was a reach. I looked at a minor league system that was devoid of any bats other than Dean and Ramirez and saw a big, powerful guy who was leading the Midwest League in hitting. His performance jumped out even more in a lineup that featured no other bats at all.

Gallen emerged as a different pitcher this year, improved in every aspect of his game. His AAA numbers this season were probably unprecedented for any Marlin ever. Like all the rest of the young Marlin pitchers, he has lost command/confidence at the major league level. If he can reduce his walk rate to what it was at NO, he'll be very good for the Marlins.

Diaz struggled at New Orleans last year and struggled again for the first month or two this year. He has certainly put things together better than anyone could have predicted.

But you can predict it. What's happened with Diaz and Gallen is perfectly understandable. Diaz struggled early on in his first taste of AAA, kinda like Gallen did last year. As time's gone by they've continued to progress got more comfortable in AAA and the results have been outstanding, Gallen progressing even more than I would've predicted, Diaz less so. Now we're seeing Gallen with some struggles at the big league level. Based on his track record, understandable he'll continue to improve, and get better, I just don't see ace based on his current repertoire, while Sixto and Cabrera's skillset makes them a lot easier to envision as potential aces down the road.

Putting numbers in context is just as important as the numbers.

[lou]

But you can predict it. What's happened with Diaz and Gallen is perfectly understandable. Diaz struggled early on in his first taste of AAA, kinda like Gallen did last year. As time's gone by they've continued to progress got more comfortable in AAA and the results have been outstanding, Gallen progressing even more than I would've predicted, Diaz less so. Now we're seeing Gallen with some struggles at the big league level. Based on his track record, understandable he'll continue to improve, and get better, I just don't see ace based on his current repertoire, while Sixto and Cabrera's skillset makes them a lot easier to envision as potential aces down the road.

Putting numbers in context is just as important as the numbers.

I think we've been on this for 6+ months at this point and how certain guys have traits to get outs at higher levels. Hopefully this starts clicking that Alcantara and Guzman's fastball are worth a hell of a lot more than an old Ben Meyer beating up on some boys.

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This is probably what they have right now putting together some recent lists and aggregating. I'd like to see a bigger FG update so we could place those "emerging" guys a bit easier

FV55+ < - This isn't a rating but could be an eye of the beholder to a FV60 for some
Sixto

FV50 < - I removed Gallen for graduation
Bleday
Diaz
E. Cabrera < - Biggest preseason jump
Monte

FV45+
Garrett < - Both upgraded from preseason
Rogers

FV45
Scott
Niedert
Devers
VVM
Nunez
Misner

FV40+
Guzman < - Both definitely relievers
Holloway

FV40 < - Removed Quijada for graduation
Banfield
O. Johnson
Vallimont < - I'm adding him here. I think he has earned this and is big to project him moving forward w/ hopeful velocity gains
Fitterer
W. Stewart
Dugger
B. Miller
Soriano
Pompey

Emerging < - I don't know yet on these guys, but I would bet they all sneak into top 30/35
J. Salas
Palacios
H. Mejia
J. Encarnacion
Fortes
Burdick
Fangraphs probably lists another 7-10 guys as FV35+ next year who could tick a little up

[Nick]

Great List lou, can't argue with much.

A couple of guys worth mentioning that you didn't list, who at least deserve consideration:

Evan Edwards (Maybe the best 1st base prospect in the system, has hit right out of college, not as impressive as Burdick, but still impressive)
J.D. Orr (playing a level below where he should be, but still, his OBP has hovered around .500 in over 100 PAs in Batavia, 17 steals to go along with it)
Thomas Jones (FG had him as a 40 coming into the season, disappointing season, up until July where he's been great, if he has an August like he had in July, all of a sudden he's had a good year at Clinton and probably maintains that FV40)
Demetrius Sims (older prospect, 24-years old at Jupiter, came out of nowhere this year, .850 OPS between Clinton and Jupiter in just shy of 250 ABs, which is impressive for anyone. I think could challenge Bryson Brigman in the coming years as a potential super-utility guy if he can keep hitting)

[Nick]

Bleday just hit his first homer, a 2-run shot. Jupiter up 6-1 in the 4th. First game of a double-header.

[gustavopim]

Took my son and grandsons to Jupiter game today. We counted the crowd in the fourth inning and came up with 79. The boys came away with six pearls, half of which they got signed.

JJ Bleday denied initial signature requests, saying he didn't do autographs on Sundays. (Must be a new rule for himself, as this was his first Sunday as a major ... minor leaguer.) He later relented on his Chic Fil A rule and signed for each of the half dozen who wanted a signature. My initial thought was that he was a lot smaller than I expected and has never seen a weight room. He sports a 14-year-old's forearms and a 40-year-old's hairline. However, he also looked like the best hitter by far. After a couple oppo soft liners for singles in his first two at bats, he crushed a high drive to right, into a stiff breeze, that was caught at the wall.

I was also favorably impressed by VVM. Although he DH'd, he showed good bat control and had a couple knocks through the IF. It occurred to me that he is hitting only singles right now because that's all he's trying to do.

Warming up for the game, the team reminded me of the ducks in the canal outside my back door. Tristan Pompey and Jerar Encarnacion looked like the mother and father leading a brood of little ones. Unfortunately, the two big ones have long swings and probably limited upside as hitters.

The big takeaway was Trevor Rogers performance. While effective (he had a very good-looking line at the end), he was clearly pitching with barely half an effort. He reminded me of a big league guy performing a rehab start. Maybe it was the heat or the incredibly bad WPB Cardinal lineup (every guy is batting .214), but he was barely extending effort. The slow motion delivery produced 89-90 mph fastballs for the most part, but he threw mostly soft curves and sliders. Having watched the FSL All Star game, I know what the real Rogers looks like ... and that's 96. I assure you he could have thrown 200 pitches given the easy going approach.

We enjoyed the day.

Great Stuff Lee. I love to hear those things. Many of us here post a lot but never go to any games. It's good to see the real perspective. I've been working in WPB and I'm still to go to a Hammerheads game.

[fish16]

bleday looking good early on. I think we could see him here by next september for a cup of coffee and then starting 2021 on the ML roster.

[lou]

bleday looking good early on. I think we could see him here by next september for a cup of coffee and then starting 2021 on the ML roster.

0% chance. 40 man protection post 2020 will be competitive. The earliest is 171 days from the last day of 2021 season and he is Bryant’d

[Nick]

0% chance. 40 man protection post 2020 will be competitive. The earliest is 171 days from the last day of 2021 season and he is Bryant’d

It all comes down to how competitive we are in 2020&21. If you're trying to win those points you make go out the window.

[lou]

It all comes down to how competitive we are in 2020&21. If you're trying to win those points you make go out the qindow.

In the unlikely event they can make the playoffs in 2020, sure.

I’ll change to 1% that happens.

[Nick]

Or you're saying 2021 is our year we need our best foot forward day 1 so Bleday's in the opening day lineup.

[lou]

Or you're saying 2021 is our year we need our best foot forward day 1 so Bleday's in the opening day lineup.

This turns into the Fernandez debacle then.

Keep him down 2+ weeks, get a year of control. No brainer keeping him down 2 weeks. If the braves can do it with Acuma and Cubs Bryant, it can be done with Bleday

[fish16]

This turns into the Fernandez debacle then.

Keep him down 2+ weeks, get a year of control. No brainer keeping him down 2 weeks. If the braves can do it with Acuma and Cubs Bryant, it can be done with Bleday

ya i agree. I was just saying best case scenario we are in contention next september. I think its realistic for us next year to have a year a little better than our 2006 team where we were kind of in it till the end of the year in the wild card race but not a true contender, and then ideally we would take a big step going into 2021. Youre right though it probably makes sense to just keep him in A+ to start next year, and then AA mid year and keep him down for a few weeks to get the extra year. He really does look like he's gonna be a super fast moving high impact bat. Reminds me of a better hitting schwarber in terms of where he was drafted and how quick he could move up the system and make an impact on the major league team.

[Nick]

This turns into the Fernandez debacle then.

Keep him down 2+ weeks, get a year of control. No brainer keeping him down 2 weeks. If the braves can do it with Acuma and Cubs Bryant, it can be done with Bleday

And as we saw with Fernandez, things happen you can't predict. 2021 will be 18 years since we last made the postseason. If you think the playoffs are realistic scenario you put your best foot forward day 1. That's all I'm saying.

[lou]

And as we saw with Fernandez, things happen you can't predict. 2021 will be 18 years since we last made the postseason. If you think the playoffs are realistic scenario you put your best foot forward day 1. That's all I'm saying.

I don’t think suggesting because you can die, you can be called up, is a valid argument for calling someone up.

Bleday is probably a top 5 organizational asset right now. They have to treat him as such. Even if they plan on contending in 2021, you call him up with 171 days to go and forsake the 2 weeks for an extra year of control. It’s really not a debate. The marlins were wrong to call up Fernandez and brinson when they did. You have to play the game. The braves did with Acuna and they were looking to contend.