2019 Draft

[tjfla]

This is off the top of my head so its possible im missing someone obvious, but when the hell was the last time we took a college bat in the first round? Seems like we've been taking high school arms and bats for going on like 15 years now.

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Ah, how could i forget the magical marlins career of colin moran. Before that the last time was coghlan.

Stan Meek loved his HS OK/AR/TX/KS arms and CA bats. Biggest reason we had NO system-they tried to get Stantons/Joses in every draft instead of going for solid college guy

[sports24/7]

Stan Meek loved his HS OK/AR/TX/KS arms and CA bats. Biggest reason we had NO system-they tried to get Stantons/Joses in every draft instead of going for solid college guy

I think the issue with their system had more to do with awful trades and an aversion to spending in the IFA market more than poor drafting, no? They drafted two MVPs, a generational pitcher, and a guy who ascended to to being the best catcher in baseball all in the span of a handful of years. Kolek was a big whiff, but that was a Loria call wasn't it? The jury is still out on guys like Garrett and Rogers, but both could pan out. Other than Kolek, their worst pick in recent memory is actually when they went the college route with Moran.

[Nick]

I think the issue with their system had more to do with awful trades and an aversion to spending in the IFA market more than poor drafting, no? They drafted two MVPs, a generational pitcher, and a guy who ascended to to being the best catcher in baseball all in the span of a handful of years. Kolek was a big whiff, but that was a Loria call wasn't it? The jury is still out on guys like Garrett and Rogers, but both could pan out. Other than Kolek, their worst pick in recent memory is actually when they went the college route with Moran.

Even Moran is an everyday starter on a major league club, if not a very good one.

[tjfla]

I think the issue with their system had more to do with awful trades and an aversion to spending in the IFA market more than poor drafting, no? They drafted two MVPs, a generational pitcher, and a guy who ascended to to being the best catcher in baseball all in the span of a handful of years. Kolek was a big whiff, but that was a Loria call wasn't it? The jury is still out on guys like Garrett and Rogers, but both could pan out. Other than Kolek, their worst pick in recent memory is actually when they went the college route with Moran.

Actually drafted pretty well aside from 1st Rd Picks. Stan Meek loved big arm guys from OK,AR,TX,KS-Kolek,Chad James,Sinkbeil,Heaney,Suggs,Hope,Nick White. Issue they had was they refused to spend after Rd 10(was always 23 yr old college arms who would sign cheap) or would try to find the next Stanton type HS guy like Blake Anderson,Twine,multiple 3 sport athletes whose 3rd sport was baseball instead of drafting baseball players or trading draft picks for ML guys

Jeff never had say in draft long as they didnt overspend he didnt care who they drafted. He let Stan Meek do whatever he wanted

2009 we draft a HS guy in 2nd Rd Bryan Berglund instead of Steven Matz/Patrick Corbin. Berglund pitched in 10 games and was released

[sports24/7]

Actually drafted pretty well aside from 1st Rd Picks. Stan Meek loved big arm guys from OK,AR,TX,KS-Kolek,Chad James,Sinkbeil,Heaney,Suggs,Hope,Nick White. Issue they had was they refused to spend after Rd 10(was always 23 yr old college arms who would sign cheap) or would try to find the next Stanton type HS guy like Blake Anderson,Twine,multiple 3 sport athletes whose 3rd sport was baseball instead of drafting baseball players or trading draft picks for ML guys

Jeff never had say in draft long as they didnt overspend he didnt care who they drafted. He let Stan Meek do whatever he wanted

2009 we draft a HS guy in 2nd Rd Bryan Berglund instead of Steven Matz/Patrick Corbin. Berglund pitched in 10 games and was released

I thought Kolek vs Rodon was a money issue that came down from Loria. Am I wrong on that?

[fauowls44]

I thought Kolek vs Rodon was a money issue that came down from Loria. Am I wrong on that?

If I recall correctly, wasn’t the story that Loria was the one who wanted Rondon? Plenty of blame to go around, but I think he was right about that one.

[fish16]

Ya, Rodon wasnt exactly risk free either. I remember his NC State manager pitching him an unconscionable amount of pitches each game. I think the bigger issue was Kolek over Nola or Trea Turner, both of whom i remember seeing articles saying were in the running for our pick at the time. Draft busts happen so thats not the end of the world, my bigger issue was that Kolek pretty clearly had no business being that high to begin with. He did not have any semblance of an off speed pitch, his entire reasoning for being picked that high was just that he was a high school arm from Oklahoma that threw hard.

[tjfla]

I thought Kolek vs Rodon was a money issue that came down from Loria. Am I wrong on that?

Kolek vs Rodon was $ and the scouting dept thought Rodon was gonna end up a RP

Actually it came down to Kolek vs Aaron Nola and Stan Meek couldnt lose his hardon for Kolek who was 6'5 240 from Texas and had a 100mph FB. The "plan" was Nola on below slot deal but ended up being Kolek and because they didnt save cash Blake Anderson and Twine(neither was a Top 250 player)

Trea Turner started the year as our pick but teams soured on him quick

Stan Meek was still the best!! This guy spent 10 months in OK-drove to watch guys only in TX,AR,KS,OK and once had hardon for certain types

[tjfla]

Fangraphs New Mock is out

4. Marlins – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
Some combination of Michael Hill, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada saw Bleday, Vaughn and Arizona State CF Hunter Bishop last week. Hill has also seen UNLV SS Bryson Stott recently. Abrams is in the mix (Jeter/Denbo are rumored to be driving that bus) but we don’t think Bishop really is. We think Barco, LSU shortstop Josh Smith, and Southern Mississippi RF Matt Wallner are possibilities with their next pick and Valdes is a target for the second or third round.

35 Marlins-Nasim Nunez SS HS
46 Marlins-Josh Smith SS LSU

Marlins are looking hard at SS at #35. Question is who is there? Could have choice of 7 or 8 guys(HS-Nunez,Brooks Lee,Henderson,Matt Lugo College-Josh Smith,Davidson,Shewmake,McConnell)

At 46 I wouldnt be mad at Barco(arm issues),Wallner,(JJ Bleday Clone at 6'5 220) or another SS if they wanna double up

Rd 3 should be BPA who will sign. The Valdes they mention is Yordys Valdes HS SS from Miami(defensive SS) and here is the scouting report

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 65 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45

Every Draft class has its share of pop-up names, prospects who weren't well-known until the spring season. Valdes had stood out previously because of his defensive acumen, but some added strength has made him more of a legitimate prospect as the Draft approached, with his name creeping into Day 1 conversations.

There's no question Valdes' calling card is his defense. He'll be able to play shortstop long-term with good hands, a cannon for an arm and the ability to throw from all angles. Like with many young shortstops, he'll make the flashy plays and then lose focus on others at times, though no one doubts he'll gain consistency as he matures. The big question around Valdes is his bat. He's trying to switch-hit currently, with his left side behind his right, and though he's added good weight, a lack of strength concerns some as his bat tends to trail through the zone leading to an opposite-field based approach.

A lack of true defensive shortstops in this class has no doubt helped Valdes, who has reminded some of a Luis Guillorme type, shine by comparison. A team taking him early, and signing him away from his commitment to Florida State, will be one that sees enough future strength gains to allow his bat to catch enough for him to be a glove-first everyday shortstop at the big league level.

Doubtful they would go Nunez and Valdes as both are defensive SS. Barco wants OVER slot but would be a solid pick at #46. He has had arm issues this year however. Josh Smith is a better JT Riddle-some power but is 5'10 180. Can play 3 IF spots but not flashy at them

4-Bleday (RF)
35-Matt Lugo or College SS(Josh Smith/Davidson) (SS with a Bat)
46-Barco(LHP)
Rd 3-Valdes(Defense SS)
Rd 4-College C
Rd 5-Arm
Rd 6 and 7-Bats
Rd 8-10-Cheap guys who will sign(RP/senior bats)

[tjfla]

One thing to remember is we have been signing IFA guys finally which means they are gonna play alot. We also need bats in upper levels of minors which means more college guys. Arms is total opposite we have too many in upper levels and need more in Rookie ball

Even BEFORE draft the GCL looks like
C-Barstad(Maybe)
1B-Chris Rodriguez(3B)
2B-Montero
SS-Marinez(3b)
3B-Machado(Ut)
LF-
CF-Dalvy Rosario
RF-Mesa JR

Paulino/Espinal/Lebron/Caballero Could be in GCL or Batavia and next year u have 2B-Junior Sanchez,SS-Salas/Lewis,3B-Maybe Cappe?

[fish16]

i think i know two of the names you just mentioned

[tjfla]

i think i know two of the names you just mentioned

Should pay more attention then to lower levels. We have some solid DSL players who looked good in DSL LY and held own in GCL

[fish16]

Should pay more attention then to lower levels. We have some solid DSL players who looked good in DSL LY and held own in GCL

I just don't find it's worth paying attention to guys unless they were super high picks until they get to and start producing at least Clinton/formerly Greensboro. There are so many reasons why guys either succeed or stink in those lower levels that it makes an evaluation of them just a waste of time in my opinion.

[Todd]

Use the first few rounds for the safe college players they rarely take.

But rounds 4-10 should all be BPA prep arms IMO.

[sports24/7]

A guy who I'd have some interest in later on (especially if they pass on Vaughn) is Mike Toglia. He'd fill a system need at 1B (and could play a corner OF spot), and has some real raw power. He also is a college bat, so he's not going to take as long as a HS player.

Here is what BA and MLB.com say about him:

Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 200 | B-T: B-L
Commit/Drafted: Rockies '16 (35)
Scouting Report: Toglia is a 6-foot-5, 200-pound junior who hit .278/.352/.514 with six home runs through his first 37 games for UCLA this spring. The switch-hitter has an easy swing from both sides of the plate with power to all fields. Toglia has had some dry spells with the bat this spring, getting too passive at the plate while also allowing his front side to drift, which causes him to lack hip rotation and can lead to some inconsistency with his swing plane. Toglia is athletic and has the tools to be a plus defender at first base with the possibility of being a solid defender in the corner outfield positions as well. His power potential and athleticism on defense bode well for his future, but scouts have some concerns about the swing-and-miss in Toglia’s game, especially as he advances to the next level.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Talented and a bit raw out of the Pacific Northwest high school ranks in 2016, Toglia was taken in the 35th round by the Rockies, but he went on to UCLA. Good success in two years of starting with the Bruins had him poised to be one of the better college bats to be considered in June and while a slow start to his junior season impacted his stock, he was getting hot as the spring wore on.

Toglia is a solid athlete, especially given his 6-foot-5 frame that he's still growing into. And as a kid from the Northwest, he's still growing into the game. He's shown huge raw power from both sides of the plate, with some scouts putting a 70 on his raw power, but there are some questions about his ability to make enough contact to tap into it consistently. He wasn't comfortable in the box at the start of the season, but the streaky hitter was starting to put it together. Athletic enough to handle an outfield corner, he's a plus defender at first who can save runs at the infield corner.

Just 20 when the Draft rolls around, he's one of the youngest college juniors in the country, He's a rare college bat with projection, one who could be a run producer in the future if he can refine his approach.