2023 Marlins Minors

[Lee Stone]

He said he is sitting between 88-92 mph and has been clocked between 93-95 before. Whatever. He has the low BABIP because he gives up next to no barrels

Perez has allowed five homers in 31 innings. Monteverde just one in 38.

[fish16]

He said he is sitting between 88-92 mph and has been clocked between 93-95 before. Whatever. He has the low BABIP because he gives up next to no barrels

Perez has allowed five homers in 31 innings. Monteverde just one in 38.

So just to go on record, you think Monteverde is going to have a better career than eury? You would put Monteverde as the best prospect in the organization?

[Lee Stone]

So just to go on record, you think Monteverde is going to have a better career than eury? You would put Monteverde as the best prospect in the organization?

Thanks for the question! Most prospect lists put Perez, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, and quite a few others well ahead of Monteverde. I would simply say that he belongs in the top five for sure - and that those five pitchers are also the team's top five prospects. Position players remain a total crapshoot.

I know that most posters put a lot of stock in the various prospect lists but I do not.

[lou]

He said he is sitting between 88-92 mph and has been clocked between 93-95 before. Whatever. He has the low BABIP because he gives up next to no barrels

Perez has allowed five homers in 31 innings. Monteverde just one in 38.

A 94 MPH fastball Monteverde with a mid 80s change and low 80s slider (or whatever) becomes a very different pitcher to me versus call it an 88 / 80 / 80 throwing control guy. Yes I know you value the control and some of those guys do make it and succeed with one true out pitcher (Elder, eventually Petit became a good reliever), but these are big projection differences. Optimistically he might grow into sitting 90-92. MLB hitters are very good once they see the funky deception a few times so he's going to need something more probability wise.

Certainly not close to Eury, or the Meyer, Eder, and Fulton class, but maybe the funk gets him into the low 20s of overall prospect status and gets viewed more beneficially than Nardi, Soriano, Reynolds, Millbrandt, and Simpson, etc. And I mean, that's a compliment and good for him. I'm rooting for him. I'm thrilled if he becomes a weird third bullpen lefty that can go 1 time through the lineup. Anything more is amazing.

Thanks for the note on speed. Hopefully those upper ranges become the norm. I still want to see that Fangraphs or even pipeline update that says that slider is rocking. He should also be in AAA for sure.

[fish16]

We may have a right-handed Arraez type bat in Jorge Caballero. He's 22 and in A ball due to past injuries but hits for huge average (albeit w/o power) and has some speed. If you like what Arraez does for the lineup, Caballero is a clone in the OF.

1. You yourself didn’t like Arraez. Remember like a month ago?

2. His k/bb for his career is 2/1. Arraez walks more than he k’s at the big league level. He is also, again, super old relative to competition

[Cambridge]

Watson continues to have a decent season. Interesting the issues spoken about last year given he looks totally measured in Beloit.

[lou]

Watson continues to have a decent season. Interesting the issues spoken about last year given he looks totally measured in Beloit.

I am loving the 18.6% BB, 22.7% K, .321 BABIP, .253 AVG. I think it's expected a 20 year old will take some time to find his power, but whatever they are preaching (7.5% BB / 35.5% K last year) is working. They gave him a 20/40 hit tool, 25/60 Game power, and 50/60 Raw power last year. Jazz finished off as a 40 hit, 50/55 game power, 60 raw power (with similar speed and jazz a better fielder). Jazz never had that BB/K Watson is showing in the minors right now (SSS yes), so this is encouraging if that holds and the power comes in 2+ years. He's better than Berry and Cappe right now too. Would be nice if the "second unit" starts developing here with Cappe, Watson, Berry, Nunez (the BB/K is somehow still holding), Amaya, Edwards, Mesa Jr. (crazy BABIP but he's doing it), Groshans (looks like might be picking it up a little, 11.6% BB / 17.5% whiff, and a .256 BABIP with a .211 average), I. Lewis, Burdick, etc. Some real hope here they might get some longterm guys even if some may just be bench guys.

Bleday is back to being Bleday also - .235/.316/.471 at MLB level, with a .265 BABIP and the Ks are climbing rapidly (24.6% now, was doing 12.6% whiffs in the minors). He might be a good platoon bat for them against RHP with how he is trending which we can live without if Puk plays like Puk. I would lose it if he become a real killer for them with what the offense is doing.

[Nick]

Monteverde got smoked today. Lee hates him now.

[Lee Stone]

I hate that he has some type of problem that required the team to rest him for 11 days since his last start.

[fish16]

I hate that he has some type of problem that required the team to rest him for 11 days since his last start.

it's called regression to the mean. He had one of the highest differences in all of the minor leagues between his ERA and FIP. His FIP was still good, just not as dominant as his regular numbers showed.

[fish16]

cj hinojosa down to a .726 OPS in AAA

[lou]

I hate that he has some type of problem that required the team to rest him for 11 days since his last start.

We got the slider report Lee (Fangraphs)

........only sitting 88-90 mph. Monteverde still only throws about that hard, but his short, vertical arm stroke is of the Clayton Kershaw phylum and helps his fastball sneak past hitters at the top of the strike zone. After feasting off his changeup in college, Monteverde has made changes to his seldom-used slider, which is now more of a cutter in the 84-85 mph range and up to 87, three ticks harder than he showed in 2022. He now has four distinct pitches and a very repeatable delivery. In the Tommy Milone mold, Monteverde is a high-probability fifth starter who’s rocketing through the minors.

I think this is the explanation. He is feasting on control/funkyness in AA (which is what we expected), but he *IS* throwing that slider, or cutter, harder and that is playing up to AA hitters (the good news).

A high probability 5th SP, or presumably a very good 3rd/4th bullpen lefty combined with the Marlins 7th/8th SP stretched out in the bullpen, is a great result if that is what they get out of him. Let's hope. Puk, Garrett, Nardi, and Monteverde may be a real interesting longterm lefty pen core. No offense to Garrett here, but I don't see how he beats out Rogers/Eder/Meyer for the last SP spot behind obvious top 4 at this stage.

[Nick]

We got the slider report Lee (Fangraphs)

........only sitting 88-90 mph. Monteverde still only throws about that hard, but his short, vertical arm stroke is of the Clayton Kershaw phylum and helps his fastball sneak past hitters at the top of the strike zone. After feasting off his changeup in college, Monteverde has made changes to his seldom-used slider, which is now more of a cutter in the 84-85 mph range and up to 87, three ticks harder than he showed in 2022. He now has four distinct pitches and a very repeatable delivery. In the Tommy Milone mold, Monteverde is a high-probability fifth starter who’s rocketing through the minors.

I think this is the explanation. He is feasting on control/funkyness in AA (which is what we expected), but he *IS* throwing that slider, or cutter, harder and that is playing up to AA hitters (the good news).

A high probability 5th SP, or presumably a very good 3rd/4th bullpen lefty combined with the Marlins 7th/8th SP stretched out in the bullpen, is a great result if that is what they get out of him. Let's hope. Puk, Garrett, Nardi, and Monteverde may be a real interesting longterm lefty pen core. No offense to Garrett here, but I don't see how he beats out Rogers/Eder/Meyer for the last SP spot behind obvious top 4 at this stage.

To me you have Sandy and Eury right now. Those guys are locked in you can't trade them unless some team wants to do something absolutely stupid to get them. Then you have a group of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Meyer, Eder and Fulton. You probably have to trade 3 of those 7 guys before Opening Day 2024, to build a respectable lineup. We've already used 8 starters this year 2 months in. You have to go at least 9 maybe 10 deep IMO. So what do you do? Like I've mentioned before, trade those 3 arms, then have your biggest FA signing, maybe you're only FA signing next offseason be a legit arm. (Mahle/Giolito/Nola) That Gives you 7. Let's say it's Caberera/Rogers/Eder traded.

You have Alcantara/Luzardo/FA/Eury/Garrett to start the season. That's pretty damn good. Then you have Fulton and a returning Meyer. That's where you need guys like Hoeing and Monteverde to lock down those 8 and 9 spots, and then maybe you pick up a guy like Smeltzer for AAA. (but this time a guy who doesn't suck) Castano's still around. To me that'll work for 2024.

You just gotta turn Cabrera/Rogers/Eder into 3 legit bats, and that'll be the challenge.

[lou]

To me you have Sandy and Eury right now. Those guys are locked in you can't trade them unless some team wants to do something absolutely stupid to get them. Then you have a group of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Meyer, Eder and Fulton. You probably have to trade 3 of those 7 guys before Opening Day 2024, to build a respectable lineup. We've already used 8 starters this year 2 months in. You have to go at least 9 maybe 10 deep IMO. So what do you do? Like I've mentioned before, trade those 3 arms, then have your biggest FA signing, maybe you're only FA signing next offseason be a legit arm. (Mahle/Giolito/Nola) That Gives you 7. Let's say it's Caberera/Rogers/Eder traded.

You have Alcantara/Luzardo/FA/Eury/Garrett to start the season. That's pretty damn good. Then you have Fulton and a returning Meyer. That's where you need guys like Hoeing and Monteverde to lock down those 8 and 9 spots, and then maybe you pick up a guy like Smeltzer for AAA. (but this time a guy who doesn't suck) Castano's still around. To me that'll work for 2024.

You just gotta turn Cabrera/Rogers/Eder into 3 legit bats, and that'll be the challenge.

I feel Cabrera's top end is too high to move right now - some people are thinking he has Strider breakout tendencies and his stuff is undeniable. Plus the injury risk, he seems most valuable to keep. I'm with you on effectively needing 8 starters, and practically, they only have the 4 right handers (unless Sixto comes back LOL) to do an even split:

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer
Luzardo, Rogers, Eder, Garrett, Fulton, Monteverde

I think it's trading two lefties and I can be sold on really any two here. It would all be trade dependent. A ballsy move would be Luzardo and Rogers. Both are in arbitration next year. Luzardo might get a real haul at the deadline this year if there is real belief Eder/Meyer is a 3 longterm, and someone from the other of them, Garret, Fulton, or Monteverde is eating 150+ innings. That's not a bad bet.

I do think if they become sellers, something like Soler/Cueto/Floro becomes real interesting for teams. Like Baltimore. It's not getting Westburg, but they have a lot of interesting bats they don't need and would be longterm pieces here on paper. Baltimore would still have the juice for another SP trade on top of this. Marlins may be able to do some work if they implode as Stallings, Cooper, Wendle, Berti, Soler, Cueto, Floro, Scott, Okert, Barnes, etc., may all be useful pieces to contenders. Especially if pooled together as 2nd/3rd guys in the deal just to get the deal done.

We'll see. It's really time for Kim to plant the flag and go for it.

[Nick]

I feel Cabrera's top end is too high to move right now - some people are thinking he has Strider breakout tendencies and his stuff is undeniable. Plus the injury risk, he seems most valuable to keep. I'm with you on effectively needing 8 starters, and practically, they only have the 4 right handers (unless Sixto comes back LOL) to do an even split:

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer
Luzardo, Rogers, Eder, Garrett, Fulton, Monteverde

I think it's trading two lefties and I can be sold on really any two here. It would all be trade dependent. A ballsy move would be Luzardo and Rogers. Both are in arbitration next year. Luzardo might get a real haul at the deadline this year if there is real belief Eder/Meyer is a 3 longterm, and someone from the other of them, Garret, Fulton, or Monteverde is eating 150+ innings. That's not a bad bet.

I do think if they become sellers, something like Soler/Cueto/Floro becomes real interesting for teams. Like Baltimore. It's not getting Westburg, but they have a lot of interesting bats they don't need and would be longterm pieces here on paper. Baltimore would still have the juice for another SP trade on top of this. Marlins may be able to do some work if they implode as Stallings, Cooper, Wendle, Berti, Soler, Cueto, Floro, Scott, Okert, Barnes, etc., may all be useful pieces to contenders. Especially if pooled together as 2nd/3rd guys in the deal just to get the deal done.

We'll see. It's really time for Kim to plant the flag and go for it.

One of Cabrera or Luzardo would have to go I would think, because if not, I don't think you have the firepower to get the caliber of bats you need.