2023 Marlins Minors

[Nick]

Lindgren was up in the first week fellas. Monteverde made it to AA in less than a year in the organization. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a need for pitchers will arise and Monteverde will be the best option we have in August/September in AAA.

[Nick]

eh, I am out on many fish16 black/white hard takes, but he's right here IMO.

See above - it's the service time. I get dinged a lot around here for bringing it up, but they are extremely conscious about it and they have a 40 man glut coming. It's so microscopic a chance Monteverde gets into the top 13 arms on this team this year, it's a 0 to me.

I just don't buy this, half the arms on our 40-man roster could be gone by the end of this season, and no one would bat an eye.

[fish16]

I just don't buy this, half the arms on our 40-man roster could be gone by the end of this season, and no one would bat an eye.

I don’t disagree with that, but those guys would
certainly at least get an opportunity before he would. Can we also maybe just wait and let him pitch some more games before deciding this is who he is?

[Nick]

I don’t disagree with that, but those guys would
certainly at least get an opportunity before he would. Can we also maybe just wait and let him pitch some more games before deciding this is who he is?

You clearly had your mind made up on him. My point was, last year was his first year as a professional, look at what he did. What more could you want from him? Yes, Lee is making a ridiculous statement based on one start, that's what he does. Just don't need to completely dismiss every guy Lee says a ridiculous thing about.

[lou]

I just don't buy this, half the arms on our 40-man roster could be gone by the end of this season, and no one would bat an eye.

Yea but they will be replaced quickly. Remember Meyer, Bender, and Enright are on the 60, and Eury and Eder obvious must adds. Get rid of 10 guys, and we're already at "15."

Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett
Eury, Eder, Meyer
Bender, Enright, Sixto (too much upside to not take another offseason even if still banged up this year)
Puk, Nardi, Simpson, Reynolds

They have control rights over Barnes, Chargois, Cueto, Floro, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer, and Soriano (so that's effectively 2 must be jettisoned so far of everyone so far mentioned), and on top of that are all the Brazoban, Castano, Hoeing, Nance, Lindgrens, and Villalobos of the world and maybe someone sticks there. And then guys like McCambley and Fitterer are eligible if that group works out. Maybe McCambley should be in the must add pile also. Plus deadline trades will be coming I believe.

This is going to be extremely tight and yea we may not care much about the last 2-3 names here, but IMO (and I am very confident the FO thinks this may also), you just don't invite a Fulton and Monteverde onto this group as big picture, you'd rather they just not pitch this year and see what becomes of a guy like Soriano or Reynolds or McCambley in another offseason as that is who in essence who you would be losing. I think the Marlins are coming to the point they may have to expose arms like "Enright" because they just have that much arm depth. Which is a good thing once they figure out the bats.....

Basically, the economics count and skew so heavily against Monteverde it's beyond unlikely.

[lou]

those guys would certainly at least get an opportunity before he would

Yes they will. And frankly, the Marlins have a recent good trade record here with Thompson, Bender, Pop, etc.

[Lee Stone]

And I don't buy for a second that Pat Monteverde is not capable of being a great major leaguer. Since TJS a couple years ago, we have no idea how much he has developed. All I know about him is that in his single start of the 2023 season, he was fantastic. I also know that what he is doing today is more important than the whole package of yesterdays and yesteryears or whether he was drafted in the first round or the twentieth round.

[Nick]

Yea but they will be replaced quickly. Remember Meyer, Bender, and Enright are on the 60, and Eury and Eder obvious must adds. Get rid of 10 guys, and we're already at "15."

Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett
Eury, Eder, Meyer
Bender, Enright, Sixto (too much upside to not take another offseason even if still banged up this year)
Puk, Nardi, Simpson, Reynolds

They have control rights over Barnes, Chargois, Cueto, Floro, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer, and Soriano (so that's effectively 2 must be jettisoned so far of everyone so far mentioned), and on top of that are all the Brazoban, Castano, Hoeing, Nance, Lindgrens, and Villalobos of the world and maybe someone sticks there. And then guys like McCambley and Fitterer are eligible if that group works out. Maybe McCambley should be in the must add pile also. Plus deadline trades will be coming I believe.

This is going to be extremely tight and yea we may not care much about the last 2-3 names here, but IMO (and I am very confident the FO thinks this may also), you just don't invite a Fulton and Monteverde onto this group as big picture, you'd rather they just not pitch this year and see what becomes of a guy like Soriano or Reynolds or McCambley in another offseason as that is who in essence who you would be losing. I think the Marlins are coming to the point they may have to expose arms like "Enright" because they just have that much arm depth. Which is a good thing once they figure out the bats.....

Basically, the economics count and skew so heavily against Monteverde it's beyond unlikely.

I've highlighted the who cares players for you.

Cueto will most likely be gone.

Fitterer sucks. Nobody is taking McCambley in a Rule 5 draft barring a huge turnaround year.

It won't be a problem.

[Nick]

I mean we literally dropped Castano from the 40-man and no one took him. Castano is easily the most valuable name from the guys I highlighted, other than maybe Smeltzer.

[fish16]

I've highlighted the who cares players for you.

Cueto will most likely be gone.

Fitterer sucks. Nobody is taking McCambley in a Rule 5 draft barring a huge turnaround year.

It won't be a problem.

the issue that youre not getting is that its not that those guys are cant miss guys that we cant lose, it's that they will get the opportunity at the big league level before Monteverde because they are on the 40 man. the choice they would be faced with when deciding who to call up, is you can call up monteverde and DFA a guy already on the 40 man who they havent seen get a chance at the big league level, or just call up those guys first and seeing what they have. Whether we like it or not, they will choose to see what they have first. I dont think any of those guys are anything, and i think monteverde might eventually be a castano type guy, but that's the reality of the situation, and that's why i said he wont get a shot this year.

[fish16]

I mean we literally dropped Castano from the 40-man and no one took him. Castano is easily the most valuable name from the guys I highlighted, other than maybe Smeltzer.

that was more likely than not because we DFA'd him in late january when most teams 40 mans are full. It says a lot about him as a player that no team wanted to DFA someone on their own 40 man to add him, but i think that's why he wasnt claimed at that time.

Again, all these guys are fringe major leaguers at best. My only argument is that that doesnt change the fact that the guys currently on the 40 will more likely than not get a shot if we are calling up a reliever before Monteverde. He's too far down on the depth chart and he only has 36 innings above A+ ball. He's not close to being major league ready, if he ever does in fact get there.

[Nick]

the issue that youre not getting is that its not that those guys are cant miss guys that we cant lose, it's that they will get the opportunity at the big league level before Monteverde because they are on the 40 man. the choice they would be faced with when deciding who to call up, is you can call up monteverde and DFA a guy already on the 40 man who they havent seen get a chance at the big league level, or just call up those guys first and seeing what they have. Whether we like it or not, they will choose to see what they have first. I dont think any of those guys are anything, and i think monteverde might eventually be a castano type guy, but that's the reality of the situation, and that's why i said he wont get a shot this year.

Oh, I'm getting it. So let's say every Starter on the 40-Man get the shot first.

1. Sandy
2. Luzardo
3. Cabera (struggling mightily with command)
4. Rogers
5. Cueto (already injured)
6. Garrett
7. Castano (already in the big leagues)
8. Lindgren(already in the big leagues)
9. Smeltzer (already in the big leagues)
10. Hoeing

Bryan Hoeing is literally the only guy on the 40-man with the ability to start games (aka give multiple innings) that we haven't already seen. 10 games into the season. Now explain to me again, how unlikely it is that we see a starter from outside the current 40-man get a shot this year.

[Nick]

And again I'm not arguing that it's likely Monteverde gets a shot, I'm just arguing that it's possible.

[fish16]

You clearly had your mind made up on him. My point was, last year was his first year as a professional, look at what he did. What more could you want from him? Yes, Lee is making a ridiculous statement based on one start, that's what he does. Just don't need to completely dismiss every guy Lee says a ridiculous thing about.

I havent made my mind up on him. He absolutely could develop into a fringe big leaguer at some point, or at least get a mini opportunity maybe next year. My point is that he is so far down on the depth chart and if you actually look at his production it isnt as impressive as you would think it is. He's not getting an opportunity this year unless we have like 7-10 injuries.

last year his peripherals werent all that spectacular given his age relative to level. Fangraphs had him as a 24 year old in A+ ball who put up a 3.95 XFIP, indicating his actual era at that level wasnt what it appeared given that it was nearly 1.5 less than what the peripherals would indicate it would be. he's a decent prospect that hopefully can turn into a decent bullpen arm at some point

[fish16]

Oh, I'm getting it. So let's say every Starter on the 40-Man get the shot first.

1. Sandy
2. Luzardo
3. Cabera (struggling mightily with command)
4. Rogers
5. Cueto (already injured)
6. Garrett
7. Castano (already in the big leagues)
8. Lindgren(already in the big leagues)
9. Smeltzer (already in the big leagues)
10. Hoeing

Bryan Hoeing is literally the only guy on the 40-man with the ability to start games (aka give multiple innings) that we haven't already seen. 10 games into the season. Now explain to me again, how unlikely it is that we see a starter from outside the current 40-man get a shot this year.

its not that a starter not on the 40 man is unlikely to get a shot, it's that he is unlikely to get a shot not being on the 40 man given his status as a prospect. eury would be ahead of him. If eder comes back soon he will get an opportunity later in the year. MD Johnson was better than him in beloit last year and is at AA now too, so he's in the same category as Monteverde. Mccambley if he comes back and pitches well would likely be ahead of him given his draft status and even though it was a bad year last year, he has more experience in AA.

Here is the depth chart it would take for him to get a start: Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Cueto, Garrett, Eury, Castano, Hoeing, Sixto if he ever gets healthy, eder when he gets healthy, Fulton would probably go before him even though they wont want to add him to the 40 man, Smeltzer, Lindgren, MD Johnson, McCambley, and then as stupid as it would be i think they would bring chi chi gonzalez up for a start and then DFA him afterwards before they brought up Monteverde.