July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

Nobody is offering those kind of prospects for trevor richards. If someone offers wander franco id trade anyone, that doesnt make it at all realistic.

Kevin Merrell whom the Royals got for homer bailey is a top 20 prospect in the a's system because of pedigree and where they drafted him, not due to anything he's actually done in the minor leagues since being drafted. He's a speed first guy who can't hit, cant get on base, and doesnt appear to be all that good at stealing bases. Gimme trevor richards out of the pen for a few years before i trade him for some flier hitting prospect who cant actually hit.

[Nick]

Homer Bailey just brought back a Top 20 Prospect so will get more than expected. Right now for Miami its what bats can they get? If Houston offers Kyle Tucker u might see Caleb or Sandy traded same with NYY and Frazier. If Minnesota/TB offer some Solid Bat,prospect,IFA could see Richards traded

They arent calling around offering the SP(like others) but are listening

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Not saying they are offering but what if LAD calls on Richards and says Jeter Downs or some bat Miami likes and more OR TB says Lucious Fox and McClanhan and more? I agree for Sandy or Caleb u need to be blown away BUT Richards is someone u could get some nice pieces for(Not Tucker or Frazier but not crap either)

TB,Oak,Minnesota,NYY,Philly,Milwaukee have been most aggressive with us right now. I would love to get into TB's system and they have a terrible roster crunch so u might even be able to swing more out of them(trade prospect who doesn't need to be on 40 man in 2020 for someone who does)

I don't know, Jeter Downs, you can never have too much depth, but him and Jose Devers are really at the same stage in their development, Devers is a little younger, I believe Devers has the better reputation as a defensive shortstop, not sure if Downs moves the needle for me. I'm with fish16 in the fact that I see Richards as a potentially dominant back end of the bullpen piece down the road. Lucius Fox, kinda the same story. If Tampa wants to deal Ronaldo Hernandez for Richards, that'd get it done for me, but I don't see the Rays wanting to do that.

[tjfla]

I don't know, Jeter Downs, you can never have too much depth, but him and Jose Devers are really at the same stage in their development, Devers is a little younger, I believe Devers has the better reputation as a defensive shortstop, not sure if Downs moves the needle for me. I'm with fish16 in the fact that I see Richards as a potentially dominant back end of the bullpen piece down the road. Lucius Fox, kinda the same story. If Tampa wants to deal Ronaldo Hernandez for Richards, that'd get it done for me, but I don't see the Rays wanting to do that.

Totally agree with u both. I wouldnt trade Richards but dont forget they have tons of RP in system too Guzman/Holloway likely-the Marlins thinking is if they can get a BAT they like

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Nobody is offering those kind of prospects for trevor richards. If someone offers wander franco id trade anyone, that doesnt make it at all realistic.

Kevin Merrell whom the Royals got for homer bailey is a top 20 prospect in the a's system because of pedigree and where they drafted him, not due to anything he's actually done in the minor leagues since being drafted. He's a speed first guy who can't hit, cant get on base, and doesnt appear to be all that good at stealing bases. Gimme trevor richards out of the pen for a few years before i trade him for some flier hitting prospect who cant actually hit.

True but Merrell is still a Top 20 guy on ALL sites in a very good system-not like Mariners/Cubs system

[fish16]

Totally agree with u both. I wouldnt trade Richards but dont forget they have tons of RP in system too Guzman/Holloway likely-the Marlins thinking is if they can get a BAT they like

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True but Merrell is still a Top 20 guy on ALL sites in a very good system-not like Mariners/Cubs system

fair enough, my overall point is that i think we can get much more value out of richards by shifting him to the back end of the bullpen and then seeing him pitch well for a year or 2, and then maybe you can deal him for a legit prospect down the road rather than a flier guy right now. I just think Richards changeup out of the bullpen in 1-2 innings at a time can become a dominant reliever, and then you can flip him down the road.

[lou]

fair enough, my overall point is that i think we can get much more value out of richards by shifting him to the back end of the bullpen and then seeing him pitch well for a year or 2, and then maybe you can deal him for a legit prospect down the road rather than a flier guy right now. I just think Richards changeup out of the bullpen in 1-2 innings at a time can become a dominant reliever, and then you can flip him down the road.

If he becomes a dominant reliever - you keep him.

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i'd hate the idea of trading richards. Not because i think he is a great SP, but because I dont think the value we would get for him would be anything close to the value he could provide out of the bullpen for the next few years. We wouldnt get anything special for him, and his changeup out of the bullpen would be an amazing weapon. He is the type of guy who if we trade will eventually find himself in the back end of someones bullpen. Lets let that be our team for a change. I know we have good pitching depth and some good bullpen options who will become available to us from our system in the next few years, but put richards along with Elieser in the back end of our pen and have them create some trade value for themselves, which i think they would with their offspeed stuff out of the pen.

Realistically, we wont get much for richards as a back end of the rotation guy in a trade right now.

This

However, I'd trade him for a FV45, FV40+, FV40, and FV40/IFA package. That's Devers, Guzman, Osiris, and Quijada/IFA comparison. I think that deal is out there for him somewhere. Milwaukee and Minnesota have the juice. You'd never take that Oakland deal for Bailey.

[fish16]

If he becomes a dominant reliever - you keep him.

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This

However, I'd trade him for a FV45, FV40+, FV40, and FV40/IFA package. That's Devers, Guzman, Osiris, and Quijada/IFA comparison. I think that deal is out there for him somewhere. Milwaukee and Minnesota have the juice. You'd never take that Oakland deal for Bailey.

ya we can cross that bridge when we get there, id just like to see the front office have some forward thinking and recognize the value that richards change up can have out of the bullpen and realize that whatever value you get out of a trade right now in all likelihood will not exceed the value he could bring to us out of the bullpen and then possibly in a trade down the line if he does become a valuable reliever.

[lou]

ya we can cross that bridge when we get there, id just like to see the front office have some forward thinking and recognize the value that richards change up can have out of the bullpen and realize that whatever value you get out of a trade right now in all likelihood will not exceed the value he could bring to us out of the bullpen and then possibly in a trade down the line if he does become a valuable reliever.

Yep. Moving Richards is dependent on Sixto, Neidert, Yamamoto, and more fringe SP prospects (Dugger, Poteet) beating him out and being worthy of the innings. (I'm not including Cabrera, Garrett, and Rogers as they are likely farther away in timeline.) Caleb, Pablo, Sandy, and Gallen aren't going to be moved from the rotation anytime soon, so until someone else can beat out Richards, he stays in the rotation. Maybe that's Yamamoto now/soon, but I'm not going that far just yet. If he throws a good 2 months, Richards will eclipse any value he could bring as a reliever as a club controlled arm with 5 years of control. I don't think you slam that door closed unless real bombings come.

Performance is going to dictate things. Elisier is in the pen now. It's just going to happen to some of the other SP with little fanfare just like that as it did with Elisier. Seems to me, they like Yamamoto in the rotation more than him (which I agree with as Elisier is going to play up in the pen while Yamamoto probably wouldn't), so we'll see what happens. I'm not remotely concerned. I see a plan here even if we are all frustrated there are some true pumpkins still on the roster.

They thankfully are in the position where they only really need to trade Castro, Walker, and Romo* as expiring contracts, and everyone else in the organization should be moved on a purely opportunistic basis. Even Urena, Rojas, and Conley, who next year would combine for $10 million bucks which is nothing compared to the current 2.3 WAR Rojas/Urena have with no more playing time and Conley will cost under $2 million and "reliever volatility and he still is a lefty."





*Chen, Prado, and Granderson suck so much I can't even bear to mention them within this top group, but they obviously can go immediately. Via DFA if necessary.

[gustavopim]

With your dad at the ball game ... sleeping or not ... you'll always remember that.

For sure. It's our first season with season tickets and we have great memories. The energy and attendance is the best we've seen in the last 5 seasons.

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I wasn’t at the game but I’ll answer for him.

Yes.

No really no. There's a lot of Mets fans, but the energy also came from the Marlins side. The two bases loaded situations the stadium was loud..... attendance and the fans are the best I've seen in the last 5 years. People are starting to cheer and be happy at the stadium. Even when Stanton was chasing 60 homers I don't remember people actually cheering.

[Lee Stone]

Why do you believe Cabrera has a more distant timeline than Sanchez? I feel like Cabrera is as far along as J Fernandez when he took the mound in Miami.

[lou]

Why do you believe Cabrera has a more distant timeline than Sanchez? I feel like Cabrera is as far along as J Fernandez when he took the mound in Miami.

First, let's not compare anyone - ever - to Fernandez who might have been the best RHP in baseball of the last few decades if what happened didn't happen.

Second, Cabrera throwing his first - good - 76 innings in A+ and AA this year, combined with he probably maxes out at 120+ IP this year and 140+ IP next year and weighing under 200 at 6'4 where he needs to pack on some muscle, isn't getting him to the big leagues fast. He's a post-Super 2 deadline 2021 call up in a best case scenario. Close to two full years from today. He's not pushing anyone out of the rotation any time soon. If he's even a starter.

I like him, and FG recently moved him up to a FV45 (up from FV40+ preseason), but let's be cognizant of the Marlins aggressive call up history of the last 10 years (because they've had no other choice as the team has sucked and Loria is insane) and that is not normal and shouldn't be expected. They don't need to rush these guys and they need a lot of time and innings in the farm. It took Gallen almost 250 murderous AAA innings to get the call.

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FG also downgraded Sixto to a FV55 and VVM to a FV40+. That is annoying with Sixto. They also haven't moved Rogers off a FV40.

[Nick]

First, let's not compare anyone - ever - to Fernandez who might have been the best RHP in baseball of the last few decades if what happened didn't happen.

Second, Cabrera throwing his first - good - 76 innings in A+ and AA this year, combined with he probably maxes out at 120+ IP this year and 140+ IP next year and weighing under 200 at 6'4 where he needs to pack on some muscle, isn't getting him to the big leagues fast. He's a post-Super 2 deadline 2021 call up in a best case scenario. Close to two full years from today. He's not pushing anyone out of the rotation any time soon. If he's even a starter.

I like him, and FG recently moved him up to a FV45 (up from FV40+ preseason), but let's be cognizant of the Marlins aggressive call up history of the last 10 years (because they've had no other choice as the team has sucked and Loria is insane) and that is not normal and shouldn't be expected. They don't need to rush these guys and they need a lot of time and innings in the farm. It took Gallen almost 250 murderous AAA innings to get the call.

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FG also downgraded Sixto to a FV55 and VVM to a FV40+. That is annoying with Sixto. They also haven't moved Rogers off a FV40.

I think Cabrera is one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. I mean the book on him has been electric stuff, but hasn't put it all together up until this year, now he's at the higher levels, and he's more than figuring it out, he's putting up ace-like numbers. This is the kind of leap that happens in the minors sometimes with uber-talents. This is why we're always chiding Lee that their current stats aren't the be-all end-all. Cabrera probably wasn't in his Top 50 last year and now he's his favorite guy. If he keeps up even close to this production for the next month and a half he'll start next year in AAA, and when you get to AAA as we've seen if he performs there as well, he's an injury away from the big leagues. So I'd put my money on him being in the big leagues at some point in 2020, whether it makes financial sense to do so or not. I'd also put him only behind Sixto and Bleday as far as our top prospects right now.

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How the heck is Peyton Burdick not on the FanGraphs list? I'm telling you that guy will be in AA by early next year. Even more egregious is Chris Vallimont not being on there. Yamamoto & Rogers should be 45s easy.

[fish16]

I actually would probably agree that Cabrera is going to be up here before Sixto, mostly because they seem like they are going to be unbelievably cautious with Sixto moving forward. I would not expect to see him before July of next year.

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I think Cabrera is one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. I mean the book on him has been electric stuff, but hasn't put it all together up until this year, now he's at the higher levels, and he's more than figuring it out, he's putting up ace-like numbers. This is the kind of leap that happens in the minors sometimes with uber-talents. This is why we're always chiding Lee that their current stats aren't the be-all end-all. Cabrera probably wasn't in his Top 50 last year and now he's his favorite guy. If he keeps up even close to this production for the next month and a half he'll start next year in AAA, and when you get to AAA as we've seen if he performs there as well, he's an injury away from the big leagues. So I'd put my money on him being in the big leagues at some point in 2020, whether it makes financial sense to do so or not. I'd also put him only behind Sixto and Bleday as far as our top prospects right now.

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How the heck is Peyton Burdick not on the FanGraphs list? I'm telling you that guy will be in AA by early next year. Even more egregious is Chris Vallimont not being on there. Yamamoto & Rogers should be 45s easy.

I dont know how Cabrera isnt a top 100 guy either. I think we should have at least 4 different pitchers on a top 100 list, 5 if gallen still counts. To me, what rogers, Garrett, and Cabrera have done this year makes them worthy of being on a top 100 list.

[lou]

I think Cabrera is one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. I mean the book on him has been electric stuff, but hasn't put it all together up until this year, now he's at the higher levels, and he's more than figuring it out, he's putting up ace-like numbers. This is the kind of leap that happens in the minors sometimes with uber-talents. This is why we're always chiding Lee that their current stats aren't the be-all end-all. Cabrera probably wasn't in his Top 50 last year and now he's his favorite guy. If he keeps up even close to this production for the next month and a half he'll start next year in AAA, and when you get to AAA as we've seen if he performs there as well, he's an injury away from the big leagues. So I'd put my money on him being in the big leagues at some point in 2020, whether it makes financial sense to do so or not. I'd also put him only behind Sixto and Bleday as far as our top prospects right now.

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How the heck is Peyton Burdick not on the FanGraphs list? I'm telling you that guy will be in AA by early next year. Even more egregious is Chris Vallimont not being on there. Yamamoto & Rogers should be 45s easy.

Cabrera isn't 40 man eligible until after 2020. Given the amount of arms they have to add before then (including Sixto after this season), I find it incredible unlikely but for what you mentioned - he became an uber-talent and they need him second half of 2020 (the only financial argument is post Super-2, which would be mid-June 2020 at earliest). I like him, he just needs to show it a lot more for me. Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett with one good half season is encouraging, but we can't just start thinking they have arrived. Gallen has pitched more in AAA than all three of those guys combined in A+.

I would also easily take Diaz and Gallen (still eligible) over Cabrera, but 5-to something like 12-13, maybe 14, all may be interchangeable based on preference. Cabrera may be the best of the lot for sure and once those former two graduate out, maybe he is prospect # 3. Farm is starting to get stacked.

I agree Rogers should be a little higher, don't think Yamamoto should, and Vallimont is going to get to a FV40 pretty quick. I haven't seen much, if anything, on Burdick, but the slash is pretty solid even if you'd like to see some bombs. It's early so we'll see what happens.

[Nick]

Cabrera isn't 40 man eligible until after 2020. Given the amount of arms they have to add before then (including Sixto after this season), I find it incredible unlikely but for what you mentioned - he became an uber-talent and they need him second half of 2020 (the only financial argument is post Super-2, which would be mid-June 2020 at earliest). I like him, he just needs to show it a lot more for me. Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett with one good half season is encouraging, but we can't just start thinking they have arrived. Gallen has pitched more in AAA than all three of those guys combined in A+.

I would also easily take Diaz and Gallen (still eligible) over Cabrera, but 5-to something like 12-13, maybe 14, all may be interchangeable based on preference. Cabrera may be the best of the lot for sure and once those former two graduate out, maybe he is prospect # 3. Farm is starting to get stacked.

I agree Rogers should be a little higher, don't think Yamamoto should, and Vallimont is going to get to a FV40 pretty quick. I haven't seen much, if anything, on Burdick, but the slash is pretty solid even if you'd like to see some bombs. It's early so we'll see what happens.

I can see the argument being made on Diaz since he's having such a monster year, but I just think Cabrera's on another level talent-wise from Gallen. I heard Cabera was hitting 99 on the gun in his last start at Jacksonville.

[tjfla]

Cabrera isn't 40 man eligible until after 2020. Given the amount of arms they have to add before then (including Sixto after this season), I find it incredible unlikely but for what you mentioned - he became an uber-talent and they need him second half of 2020 (the only financial argument is post Super-2, which would be mid-June 2020 at earliest). I like him, he just needs to show it a lot more for me. Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett with one good half season is encouraging, but we can't just start thinking they have arrived. Gallen has pitched more in AAA than all three of those guys combined in A+.

I would also easily take Diaz and Gallen (still eligible) over Cabrera, but 5-to something like 12-13, maybe 14, all may be interchangeable based on preference. Cabrera may be the best of the lot for sure and once those former two graduate out, maybe he is prospect # 3. Farm is starting to get stacked.

I agree Rogers should be a little higher, don't think Yamamoto should, and Vallimont is going to get to a FV40 pretty quick. I haven't seen much, if anything, on Burdick, but the slash is pretty solid even if you'd like to see some bombs. It's early so we'll see what happens.

This is what is gonna be the deciding factor in MANY of the younger guys getting call ups over the next 2 years. Unless they need to be on the 40 man its unlikely they will be put on it-its the reason we got Caleb Smith/Cooper from NYY and reason TB/SD is willing to "overpay" for guys in trades. They have so many prospects they will both be losing guys in Rule 5