June Game Thread

[fish16]

The 2 guys id be looking at from minnesota in a realistic trade package for Urena- Ryan Jeffers, 2nd round pick just last year with plus plus power at catcher and Luis Arraez, a kid with just phenomenal plate discipline and a good hit tool. No power, but that hit tool and the K/BB ratio is tremendous, and those 2 are at A+ and AAA where the marlins supposedly have been scouting. Idk if you could get both but id try. Don't exactly need a catcher long term as it looks right now but we could use some depth at the position and who knows how alfaro will hold up long term given the difficulty in playing catcher every day.

Please just give me hitting though, we desperately need some depth in the system..

What was Urena's injury btw? I didnt even see the injury or extent of the injury before yamamoto came up. Will it be something that will last till close to the deadline and possibly impact his trade value?

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With you completely here. Luckily, performance is likely going to dictate this. They can't possibly develop seven #3 SP where someone is insulted moving to the pen.

that would be a great problem to have. Luckily the ETA's on these guys are somewhat staggered so we can get a good idea of most of them before the next crop comes up. Youve got Gallen and Elieser in AAA ready this year, Sixto and Neidert likely ready sometime either early-mid next year, and then you have the crop of guys in A+ right now who should be ready by the beginning to middle of 2021.

The most obvious moves already are to transition Guzman and Holloway to the bullpen eventually given their plus stuff but lack of control. The other guys we will figure out over time.

[lou]

The yelich trade was awful last year, as expected, but can we stop comparing it to the cabrera trade already? At least for another 2 years? None of Monte, Diaz, or Yamamoto were expected to be in the big leagues at this point and they are all playing extremely well in the minors, perhaps stop comparing trades to the worst trade of all time prior to 75% of the trade being in the majors at a point when that 75% wasnt expected to be in the majors at this point?

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a trade can be bad without it being compared to the worst trade of all time when you traded a hall of famer and the best guy you got was a long reliever?

No we can't. If anything, we stop comparing it to the Cabrera trade because it's WORSE because he was signed for 5 seasons. That alone, regardless of what the Brewers guys do absent true breakouts, makes it worse.

Did you know Yelich in 2018 had a 7.6 WAR and Cabrera's first TWO(!) seasons in Detroit he had..... 7.7 WAR? Cabrera only had "1" season in his career better than Yelich's 2018, and it's not like 2019 is going to be different and Yelich is going to blow him away this year.

It's astonishing to say, but they might have traded an even better player than Cabrera in Yelich. Maybe Yelich doesn't get to Cabrera's career WAR totals, but the prime years (i.e., the ones Marlins had him signed!!!) may be one of the biggest recent mistakes in MLB history. There was no reason to trade him. None. He fit into a contending window after a 2-3 year rebuild.

We can leave this at this, but this is mismanagement and hopefully they are amassing so much minor league depth they can trade for their own Yelich in 2021 to get a missing piece.

The 2 guys id be looking at from minnesota in a realistic trade package for Urena- Ryan Jeffers, 2nd round pick just last year with plus plus power at catcher and Luis Arraez, a kid with just phenomenal plate discipline and a good hit tool. No power, but that hit tool and the K/BB ratio is tremendous, and those 2 are at A+ and AAA where the marlins supposedly have been scouting. Idk if you could get both but id try. Don't exactly need a catcher long term as it looks right now but we could use some depth at the position and who knows how alfaro will hold up long term given the difficulty in playing catcher every day.

Please just give me hitting though, we desperately need some depth in the system..

What was Urena's injury btw? I didnt even see the injury or extent of the injury before yamamoto came up. Will it be something that will last till close to the deadline and possibly impact his trade value?

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that would be a great problem to have. Luckily the ETA's on these guys are somewhat staggered so we can get a good idea of most of them before the next crop comes up. Youve got Gallen and Elieser in AAA ready this year, Sixto and Neidert likely ready sometime either early-mid next year, and then you have the crop of guys in A+ right now who should be ready by the beginning to middle of 2021.

The most obvious moves already are to transition Guzman and Holloway to the bullpen eventually given their plus stuff but lack of control. The other guys we will figure out over time.

They want Arraez starting at 2B next year. He's not going to be moved. With Garver and Astudillo (personally, I really like both), they can move a catcher 2+ years away. Jeffers is definitely a centerpiece for Urena. Past that, you just take bullpen arms (especially lefties) as they may actually be useful versus getting FV40 whatever bats that aren't even as good as guys like H. Ramirez you just pull from minor league free agency.

The issue with the pitching isn't going to be staggered MLB timelines, it's going to be 40 man space. But, that won't hit until 2021. They'll have to make some choices next summer/offseason but I think they'll have a good sample size from all of them to make decisions on whose a starter, reliever, or trade bait at that point. Optimistically, they have an extra SP or two so they can make said reverse-Yelich trade.

[fish16]

No we can't. If anything, we stop comparing it to the Cabrera trade because it's WORSE because he was signed for 5 seasons. That alone, regardless of what the Brewers guys do absent true breakouts, makes it worse.

Did you know Yelich in 2018 had a 7.6 WAR and Cabrera's first TWO(!) seasons in Detroit he had..... 7.7 WAR? Cabrera only had "1" season in his career better than Yelich's 2018, and it's not like 2019 is going to be different and Yelich is going to blow him away this year.

It's astonishing to say, but they might have traded an even better player than Cabrera in Yelich. Maybe Yelich doesn't get to Cabrera's career WAR totals, but the prime years (i.e., the ones Marlins had him signed!!!) may be one of the biggest recent mistakes in MLB history. There was no reason to trade him. None. He fit into a contending window after a 2-3 year rebuild.

We can leave this at this, but this is mismanagement and hopefully they are amassing so much minor league depth they can trade for their own Yelich in 2021 to get a missing piece.



They want Arraez starting at 2B next year. He's not going to be moved. With Garver and Astudillo (personally, I really like both), they can move a catcher 2+ years away. Jeffers is definitely a centerpiece for Urena. Past that, you just take bullpen arms (especially lefties) as they may actually be useful versus getting FV40 whatever bats that aren't even as good as guys like H. Ramirez you just pull from minor league free agency.

The issue with the pitching isn't going to be staggered MLB timelines, it's going to be 40 man space. But, that won't hit until 2021. They'll have to make some choices next summer/offseason but I think they'll have a good sample size from all of them to make decisions on whose a starter, reliever, or trade bait at that point. Optimistically, they have an extra SP or two so they can make said reverse-Yelich trade.

my entire point is maybe dont judge a trade after a year when 3 of the 4 pieces in the trade havent made it to the bigs yet and werent expected to be in the bigs at this point. Im not arguing if all 3 of those guys suck that the trade isnt terrible, im saying stop judging a trade and comparing it to the worst trade of all time when 75% of the return has not been in the big leagues nor was expected to be in the big leagues at this point. If they all perform like brinson has to this point, ya, obviously its an awful trade and complete mismanagment, but maybe stop comparing it to the worst trade of all time before 75% of the trade was even expected to be in the big leagues.

[Lee Stone]

Craig Mish

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@CraigMish
13h13 hours ago
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When the Marlins acquired Yamamoto from Milwaukee he was mostly an analytics play. This is where Director of Player Personnel Dan Greenlee plays a big role. Worth noting.

Definition of analytics in this case is that someone looked at the Carolina League stats and noticed that Yamamoto had great numbers.

[lou]

my entire point is maybe dont judge a trade after a year when 3 of the 4 pieces in the trade havent made it to the bigs yet and werent expected to be in the bigs at this point. Im not arguing if all 3 of those guys suck that the trade isnt terrible, im saying stop judging a trade and comparing it to the worst trade of all time when 75% of the return has not been in the big leagues nor was expected to be in the big leagues at this point. If they all perform like brinson has to this point, ya, obviously its an awful trade and complete mismanagment, but maybe stop comparing it to the worst trade of all time before 75% of the trade was even expected to be in the big leagues.

He won the MVP and his OPS is currently 1.195 in 2019. He's signed for 3 1/2 more seasons. We have a year and a half sample size on everyone.

This is like saying you can come back from a 35-3 deficit late in the 2nd quarter of a football game and give them the benefit of a doubt with half the game left, while at the same time you're playing Tom Brady in his prime in New England. Sure, maybe the final score is 48-27 by the end of the game which is more respectable, but you still got your ass whooped.

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Craig Mish

Verified account

@CraigMish
13h13 hours ago
More
When the Marlins acquired Yamamoto from Milwaukee he was mostly an analytics play. This is where Director of Player Personnel Dan Greenlee plays a big role. Worth noting.

Definition of analytics in this case is that someone looked at the Carolina League stats and noticed that Yamamoto had great numbers.

It's not at all. It's his abnormal spin rates which is what the analytics guys love.

[rmc523]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ckenrider.html

Apparently Steckenrider might be back by early August.

[fish16]

He won the MVP and his OPS is currently 1.195 in 2019. He's signed for 3 1/2 more seasons. We have a year and a half sample size on everyone.

This is like saying you can come back from a 35-3 deficit late in the 2nd quarter of a football game and give them the benefit of a doubt with half the game left, while at the same time you're playing Tom Brady in his prime in New England. Sure, maybe the final score is 48-27 by the end of the game which is more respectable, but you still got your ass whooped.

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It's not at all. It's his abnormal spin rates which is what the analytics guys love.

Not really, its kind of the equivalent of saying that any trade of a star player for prospects is the worst trade in the history of baseball until the prospects actually make it to the majors. It's absurd to compare this to the cabrera trade at this point when you havent seen 75% of the trade and werent expecting to see it by this point. If they were all performing like mike rabelo and eulogio de la cruz in the minors or performing in the minors like brinson performed in the majors that would be one thing, but diaz has nearly a .900 OPS in AAA and is hitting around .300 with 15 hr's, Monte was unbelievably efficient stealing bases at 19/20, an .860 OPS, and good slugging numbers, and Yamamoto has done nothing but pitch very well at every place he's been thus far, including his major league debut last night. None of those 3 were expected to be in the majors at this point.

There is a difference between saying it was stupid to trade Yelich and being ridiculously hyperbolic comparing this to the Cabrera trade or making it out to be the worst trade of all time at this point

Also, there is a difference between getting your ass whooped and being involved in the most humiliating loss of all time. Im not arguing they got good value for Yelich at this point, im saying the hyperbole calling this and comparing this to the worst trade in baseball history is absurd after a year and a half when 75% of the guys were not expected to be in the bigs by this point and have performed phenomenally this year when healthy.

[tjfla]

Craig Mish

Verified account

@CraigMish
13h13 hours ago
More
When the Marlins acquired Yamamoto from Milwaukee he was mostly an analytics play. This is where Director of Player Personnel Dan Greenlee plays a big role. Worth noting.

Definition of analytics in this case is that someone looked at the Carolina League stats and noticed that Yamamoto had great numbers.

Greenlee is ALL about spin rates actually. Anytime a guy is said to have crazy spin rate it means Greenlee wanted him

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ckenrider.html

Apparently Steckenrider might be back by early August.

No point in rushing him long as he back for 2020

[lou]

Not really, its kind of the equivalent of saying that any trade of a star player for prospects is the worst trade in the history of baseball until the prospects actually make it to the majors. It's absurd to compare this to the cabrera trade at this point when you havent seen 75% of the trade and werent expecting to see it by this point. If they were all performing like mike rabelo and eulogio de la cruz in the minors or performing in the minors like brinson performed in the majors that would be one thing, but diaz has nearly a .900 OPS in AAA and is hitting around .300 with 15 hr's, Monte was unbelievably efficient stealing bases at 19/20, an .860 OPS, and good slugging numbers, and Yamamoto has done nothing but pitch very well at every place he's been thus far, including his major league debut last night. None of those 3 were expected to be in the majors at this point.

There is a difference between saying it was stupid to trade Yelich and being ridiculously hyperbolic comparing this to the Cabrera trade or making it out to be the worst trade of all time at this point

Also, there is a difference between getting your ass whooped and being involved in the most humiliating loss of all time. Im not arguing they got good value for Yelich at this point, im saying the hyperbole calling this and comparing this to the worst trade in baseball history is absurd after a year and a half when 75% of the guys were not expected to be in the bigs by this point and have performed phenomenally this year when healthy.

I disagree. Yelich producing 12 WAR for the Brewers in 925 PA(!) kind of ends the discussion. That is close to Troutian production. Are Brinson, Monte, and Yamamoto even going to get 12 WAR in their careers? I would take the under if I was betting today. (Monte has .400+ BABIP still, so I wouldn't be so confident in that .860 OPS with that 30.7% K rate. But I can say, this is much better than last year so hopefully he is slowly turning a corner and I hope he proves us all wrong).

We'll see what happens, but this turd may not be capable of being polished compared to what Yelich is actually doing.

[Namaste]

Just saw this on Twitter:

Marlins prospects in the FanGraphs Top 120:

Sixto Sánchez (18)
JJ Bleday (45)
Isan Diaz (97)
Monte Harrison (110)
Zac Gallen (118)

I feel like Monte Harrison is the swing guy on if the Yelich deal ends up being “ok” or total train wreck.

[tjfla]

Updated Fangraphs

Top 20

Sixto
Bleday
Diaz
Monte
Gallen
Neidert
VV
Nunez
Scott
Garrett
Devers
Cabrera
Misner
Holloway
Guzman
Osiris
Miller
Rogers
Banfield
Stewart

21-37
Fitterer
Coop
Pompey
Quijada
Dugger
Yamamoto
Thomas Jones
Nelson
Soriano
Ferrell
Dunand
Brigman
Hock
Torres
Fortes
Bradshaw
Zach King

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...num=0&team=mia

Should be "adding" before end of year- Mesa JR,Givin,Salas,Yo Sanchez?,Cappe?,Marinez,Dalvy Rosario and missing guys like Puckett,Roberson

[Nick]

Damn, FanGraphs is really high on Nunez.

Surprised no Poteet, Vallimont or Encarnacion. Yamamoto, Dugger and Stewart should be higher IMO. VVM, Guzman and Miller I'd have a little lower. Nelson and Jones have no business being on these lists any more, I know they're still young, but they've been bad for so long now. Otherwise very solid list.

[Nick]

Also, how come FanGraphs loved Holloway when he was barely playing, and now this year he's actually healthy and performing well, and his rating goes down? I think where he is on that list right now is appropriate, but I just found that curious.

[lou]

Also, how come FanGraphs loved Holloway when he was barely playing, and now this year he's actually healthy and performing well, and his rating goes down? I think where he is on that list right now is appropriate, but I just found that curious.

6 walks per 9 innings and .223 BABIP?

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Damn, FanGraphs is really high on Nunez.

Surprised no Poteet, Vallimont or Encarnacion. Yamamoto, Dugger and Stewart should be higher IMO. VVM, Guzman and Miller I'd have a little lower. Nelson and Jones have no business being on these lists any more, I know they're still young, but they've been bad for so long now. Otherwise very solid list.

I'd think Vallimont should at least get a FV35 reference as they have name dropped him before, I'm not surprised about those other two. Poteet isn't really screaming up any prospect boards not even whiffing 6 guys per 9 in AA. Encarnacion is way old for his level.

[Nick]

6 walks per 9 innings and .223 BABIP?

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I'd think Vallimont should at least get a FV35 reference as they have name dropped him before, I'm not surprised about those other two. Poteet isn't really screaming up any prospect boards not even whiffing 6 guys per 9 in AA. Encarnacion is way old for his level.

21 is way old? I guess JJ Bleday is way old for college.

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As far as Poteet goes, yeah he's not K'ing a lot of guys, but he's also not walking many guys, low BAA, and it's not like this guy is coming out of nowhere, he's a 4th round pick from one of the best college programs in the country. Good results at every level, at least deserving of a spot in your top 30 prospects.