June Game Thread

[lou]

I wouldn't be surprised if they just took any IFA cash for Romo/Walker/Grandy/Prado/Castro/Rojas and then used it to sign Cappe/Yo Sanchez/other Cubans who come on market

I mean that's all they are worth? The random reliever they'd get for any of them is outside the Marlins top 25, if not 35. Maybe Castro has a hot month and he vaults a little higher than that. There will be 10 Neil Walker type bats available in July.

[fish16]

So they get a Ferrell and who cares? I mean low-level transactions turn into Caleb and N. Anderson, but those guys were at the same time not acquired for MLB talent and supremely lucky moves. There's really nothing wrong holding onto guys with their years of control which is the point. Relievers are volatile. This is obviously a rough stretch for Conley, but it happens. I don't think another Ferrell or Brice or Guerrero (at best) around changes anything longterm compared to just keeping them. Of course, if you can show me they turned down FV45 prospects that would slot into the Marlins top 15ish or other good multi player packages, that changes the story. It's a buyers market. All the teams sell their players at the bottom now and there isn't an inventory issue unless you have something special (like Hand).

At the same time, I would double down on Conley succeeding. I'd not throw him for 7-10 days unless they absolutely have to, then have him start opening games for Hernandez and someone else. A complete reset and challenging him with confidence being put into him versus sending him to mop up. At least a few times anyways. What do they have to lose? A worse draft pick?

Im fine with holding onto guys with years of team control, my point is that that was clearly not their intention. they clearly intended to deal the guys, and keep sabotaging their own efforts at selling high on guys who, as you admit, are prone to volatility, by asking for ridiculous prices on guys. They could have absolutely gotten a decent group of hitting prospects back for those 2 guys and replaced them with other low cost options because again, relievers are prone to volatility. Im just of the opinion that you always deal non dominant relievers when their value is at its highest, even more so when you have no intention or chance of competing for 2-3 years.

[lou]

Should be a few more trades like Anderson/Stevens next year too. We have to add 5/6 SP to 40 man so few guys won't make it

They got a lot of room

Sandy, Hernandez, Gallen, Pablo, Richards, Caleb, Yamamoto
Anderson, Brice, Brigham, Ferrell, Garcia, Guerrero, Guzman, Holloway, Quijada, Steckenrider
Alfaro, Wallach
Anderson, Cooper, Diaz
Brinson, Dean, Harrison, Ramirez, Sierra
=27

Maybes - Chen, Conley, Riddle, Herrera
Prob not - Keller, Kinley, Romo, Urena, O'Brien

I haven't figured out who is eligible yet, but even if they have to add Sixto, Neidert, E. Cabrera, and W. Stewart, they have room even with adding 4-5 veterans. I think Garrett types are another year away.

[tjfla]

I mean that's all they are worth? The random reliever they'd get for any of them is outside the Marlins top 25, if not 35. Maybe Castro has a hot month and he vaults a little higher than that. There will be 10 Neil Walker type bats available in July.

Pretty much they are shooting for Maybin deals for ALL to start. Top 20-30 Prospect and IFA Cash but first team that says here is $250/500K they are gone.

Romo/Walker probably bring low level prospect/24 yr old RP and IFA cash. Castro could since they are gonna have to send cash too

2 million in IFA Pool cash gets u Yo Sanchez who is likely a Top 20 prospect for us

[lou]

Im fine with holding onto guys with years of team control, my point is that that was clearly not their intention. they clearly intended to deal the guys, and keep sabotaging their own efforts at selling high on guys who, as you admit, are prone to volatility, by asking for ridiculous prices on guys. They could have absolutely gotten a decent group of hitting prospects back for those 2 guys and replaced them with other low cost options because again, relievers are prone to volatility. Im just of the opinion that you always deal non dominant relievers when their value is at its highest, even more so when you have no intention or chance of competing for 2-3 years.

Cool, show me the names of those decent group of hitting prospects they turned down to prove that the rest of MLB valued them as you desire

- - - - - - - - - -

Pretty much they are shooting for Maybin deals for ALL to start. Top 20-30 Prospect and IFA Cash but first team that says here is $250/500K they are gone.

Romo/Walker probably bring low level prospect/24 yr old RP and IFA cash. Castro could since they are gonna have to send cash too

2 million in IFA Pool cash gets u Yo Sanchez who is likely a Top 20 prospect for us

Sounds about right. Urena is the only one who gets anything half good right now.

It's a bunch of Mills, Ferrell, and Eveld pumpkins after that, but maybe one turns into a N. Anderson and they get lucky again.

[tjfla]

They got a lot of room

Sandy, Hernandez, Gallen, Pablo, Richards, Caleb, Yamamoto
Anderson, Brice, Brigham, Ferrell, Garcia, Guerrero, Guzman, Holloway, Quijada, Steckenrider
Alfaro, Wallach
Anderson, Cooper, Diaz
Brinson, Dean, Harrison, Ramirez, Sierra
=27

Maybes - Chen, Conley, Riddle, Herrera
Prob not - Keller, Kinley, Romo, Urena, O'Brien

I haven't figured out who is eligible yet, but even if they have to add Sixto, Neidert, E. Cabrera, and W. Stewart, they have room even with adding 4-5 veterans. I think Garrett types are another year away.

Sixto/Neidert/Dugger/Stewart all have to be added. Humberto Mejia/Brigman/Dylan Lee/Eveld have to be protected

[fish16]

Cool, show me the names of those decent group of hitting prospects they turned down to prove that the rest of MLB valued them as you desire

so because i cant give you explicit names that were offered that means they couldnt get a decent group of hitting prospects? they had value, Conley before the all star break had a 2.88 ERA, and a 30/9 K/BB ratio in 25 innings in his first season as a reliever with years of team control left. Steckenrider had a 3.38 ERA with 50 k's and 20 bb's in 45 innings and forget years of team control left, he was still making the minimum. Just because im not privy to actual names being discussed doesnt mean I dont have the ability to say that these guys had value and they completely fucked up yet again on selling high on an asset, let alone an asset that we know is volatile like the relievers in baseball.

- - - - - - - - - -

perhaps you would have had real names being discussed that i could give you had they not completely overvalued their own asset and asked for a top prospect like Mejia from the indians.

[lou]

Sixto/Neidert/Dugger/Stewart all have to be added. Humberto Mejia/Brigman/Dylan Lee/Eveld have to be protected

No Cabrera? So if they are at 27, plus Sixto, Neidert, Dugger, Stewart, and maybe 2-3 other random farm guys like those guys you mentioned get protected, they'll still have room for FA, Rule V, etc.

I don't see a big crunch, but I think this portends that they aren't looking for 40 man guys in upcoming moves as there they can't just add 4 guys unless they are clear upgrades

[tjfla]

No Cabrera? So if they are at 27, plus Sixto, Neidert, Dugger, Stewart, and maybe 2-3 other random farm guys like those guys you mentioned get protected, they'll still have room for FA, Rule V, etc.

I don't see a big crunch, but I think this portends that they aren't looking for 40 man guys in upcoming moves as there they can't just add 4 guys unless they are clear upgrades

Didnt hear his name but not sure who else for sure. I know they wanna be in Rule 5 so 1 or 2 spots will be open for that

Its NOT a crazy crunch in 2020 but 2021 is

[lou]

so because i cant give you explicit names that were offered that means they couldnt get a decent group of hitting prospects? they had value, Conley before the all star break had a 2.88 ERA, and a 30/9 K/BB ratio in 25 innings in his first season as a reliever with years of team control left. Steckenrider had a 3.38 ERA with 50 k's and 20 bb's in 45 innings and forget years of team control left, he was still making the minimum. Just because im not privy to actual names being discussed doesnt mean I dont have the ability to say that these guys had value and they completely fucked up yet again on selling high on an asset, let alone an asset that we know is volatile like the relievers in baseball.

- - - - - - - - - -

perhaps you would have had real names being discussed that i could give you had they not completely overvalued their own asset and asked for a top prospect like Mejia from the indians.

Yes because you are doing what fans of teams do, over value your own guys. Other teams knew those guys are normal relievers at best, with limited track records, and there is inventory in baseball to get similar arms for cheaper. Like you know, Ziegler.

Going on a year long war path this was an egregious mistake is stupid IMO based on that, plus knowing they wouldn't have even received something more than a Ferrell if they did do a trade and that doesn't change the Marlins longterm outlook at all.

What you should be on a war path about is their 1 truly horrific failure - Yelich

[fish16]

Yes because you are doing what fans of teams do, over value your own guys. Other teams knew those guys are normal relievers at best, with limited track records, and there is inventory in baseball to get similar arms for cheaper. Like you know, Ziegler.

Going on a year long war path this was an egregious mistake is stupid IMO based on that, plus knowing they wouldn't have even received something more than a Ferrell if they did do a trade and that doesn't change the Marlins longterm outlook at all.

What you should be on a war path about is their 1 truly horrific failure - Yelich

Im not overvaluing them, im saying they should have taken their assets that are at the height of their value and cash them in given how volatile relievers are and how not close to contention we were. Those guys are nothing like Ziegler. Ziegler was a bad pitcher for a year and a half, was a free agent at the end of the year, and obviously not young with years of team control left having good seasons.

And they got a future bullpen arm out of Ziegler in Eveld. They could have absolutely gotten a hitting prospect or 2 at a level slightly above eveld. What's the alternative? Having a depreciating asset that is inherently volatile to keep on your shitty team with no shot of contending for 3 years? And even if they did contend, bullpen arms are the easiest thing to find in baseball, as you continue to admit. This really isnt all that difficult of a concept- you sell high on a volatile asset like a reliever when you have no shot or intention of competing for the foreseeable future.

[lou]

Im not overvaluing them, im saying they should have taken their assets that are at the height of their value and cash them in given how volatile relievers are and how not close to contention we were. Those guys are nothing like Ziegler. Ziegler was a bad pitcher for a year and a half, was a free agent at the end of the year, and obviously not young with years of team control left having good seasons.

And they got a future bullpen arm out of Ziegler in Eveld. They could have absolutely gotten a hitting prospect or 2 at a level slightly above eveld. What's the alternative? Having a depreciating asset that is inherently volatile to keep on your shitty team with no shot of contending for 3 years? And even if they did contend, bullpen arms are the easiest thing to find in baseball, as you continue to admit. This really isnt all that difficult of a concept- you sell high on a volatile asset like a reliever when you have no shot or intention of competing for the foreseeable future.

You absolutely are. They aren't depreciating anything material with the years of control. This isn't a starting position player where an extra year matters. This is a 4th arm in a bullpen at best - and the league knows that even if you don't want to accept that. Hence, why they didn't get moved. Look at what they got for Wittgren - which was stupid. You want more Milbraths? And Eveld is a future bullpen arm? Sure looks great in AAA. Not overvaluing? A hitting prospect the level of Eveld does nothing for this franchise. A JT Riddle clone is what you just described. Who cares. I'd rather have the arms that have proven some success at the MLB level.

You're getting annoyed over something that isn't a big deal and even if they did something, wouldn't matter but for a Caleb Smith miracle which is very unlikely. There are so many things we can criticize them on, but keeping arms with 3-5 years of control isn't one of them. I'd gamble on guys that have had success versus complete unknowns.

Don't be disappointed when the trade deadline doesn't bring much. It's a buyer's market with so many teams tanking. Urena, and a Castro revival, are the only shots of getting something that resembles a top 25 prospect.

[AdamRavs]

Wait why are we starting Yamamoto tonight?

[lou]

Wait why are we starting Yamamoto tonight?

He's on the 40 man and rested?

I assume this is today only and Gallen will replace him.

[fish16]

You absolutely are. They aren't depreciating anything material with the years of control. This isn't a starting position player where an extra year matters. This is a 4th arm in a bullpen at best - and the league knows that even if you don't want to accept that. Hence, why they didn't get moved. Look at what they got for Wittgren - which was stupid. You want more Milbraths? And Eveld is a future bullpen arm? Sure looks great in AAA. Not overvaluing? A hitting prospect the level of Eveld does nothing for this franchise. A JT Riddle clone is what you just described. Who cares. I'd rather have the arms that have proven some success at the MLB level.

You're getting annoyed over something that isn't a big deal and even if they did something, wouldn't matter but for a Caleb Smith miracle which is very unlikely. There are so many things we can criticize them on, but keeping arms with 3-5 years of control isn't one of them. I'd gamble on guys that have had success versus complete unknowns.

Don't be disappointed when the trade deadline doesn't bring much. It's a buyer's market with so many teams tanking. Urena, and a Castro revival, are the only shots of getting something that resembles a top 25 prospect.

They aren’t depreciating? Of course they are? They went from solid set up type guys with an extra year of control than they have now to one guy who is probably out for the season and another guy who is only in the big leagues still because he is out of options. That’s the definition of depreciating. Maybin got you Bryson brigman, those guys could have gotten you at least two more hitting prospects between the two of them combined. No one is saying they are world beaters, but on a team that has no shot of contending anytime soon failing to trade your relievers at the height of their value is complete mismanagement. I’m of the opinion on a non contending team you deal all relievers with value unless they are going to be around in 2-3 years and are dominant.

Eveld is a future set up man type guy, and Ziegler has much less value than Conley and ateckenrider at the time. I think your opinion on their value at the height of their value last year is complete revisionist history. We were literally talking about guys like McKenzie, Nolan Jones, Mejia. That’s a complete over ask, but to say they didn’t have value last year that could have at least gotten you 2-3 decent hitting prospects is just complete revisionist history. T


There is no upside to keeping them in our situation last year. The best case scenario was they keep pitching like they did and you eventually cash in on their value, which would just keep getting lower with less and less team control remaining. Under no circumstances was Conley ever going to be around when this team ideally turns it around, so there is 0 excuse not to trade him. It’s not even like an average hitter or starting pitcher where you can make the argument that they are somewhat hard to find. Bullpen arms are by far the easiest thing to find in the sport, not trading two guys with actual value(not top prospect value like they were foolishly asking for) who have almost no shot of being around here when we turn it around is just another example of us neglecting to sell high on an easily replaceable asset