2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

What are you doing? You said "relievers have significantly reduced value" without any qualifiers, except SP are also valuable and look what crappy ones like Rogers get. Your exact quote:

It's the exact reason why SP's, even crappy one's like rogers, have good value in trades while relievers have significantly reduced value.

Relievers are *not* significantly reduced in value. Estevez and Adam, and a lesser extent Scott, got completely irrational and massive trade hauls for purposes of contending now. So what are you arguing, because this has nothing to do about quality SP's have significantly more value than a quality reliever. You did not say that. You said "relievers have significantly reduced value," I proverbial said LOL no, and now you are changing the subject in an attempt of deflecting from the sheer stupidity?

Please feel free to clarify the record if you think Estevez, Adam, and Scott were traded at a reduced value. Note, you loved the Scott trade which suggests it wasn't a reduced value trade, so this will be interesting if you try and reconcile. You can also just admit you are wrong or talking out of your ass, but we all know you are incapable of that and will then project and say that's what you do lou! When I just sit here sad and say for a 100th time Amed Rosario feel apart defensively and it was a bad idea to suggest trading him for SS, i.e. I was wrong.

The circle of life.

This entire conversation is about reliever value relative to other positions. All else being equal- does an average reliever get as much as an average starter. No, because starters are more valuable. Doesn’t mean no relievers have significant value. You think you have this gotcha moment. I’ve never said they have no value, I said they don’t have nearly as much value as position players or starting pitchers, all else being equal, which is 100% true

compare a thoroughly mediocre to bad starter like rogers to a mediocre to bad reliever.

[lou]

also, puk is simply not an elite rp to anyone who has actually watched the guy pitch in high leverage situations. as nick said earlier, you overrate him quite a bit.

Asked/Answered, but here you go again:

Since the start of 2022, Puk is 37th in RP WAR (7th lefty)

Start of 2023, 14th (# 4 lefty)

Start of 2024, 13th (# 2 lefty)

"But he looks bad" is something Lee Stone would say and you would fucking MURDER him (probably rightfully so substantively in your defense).

You aren't wrong he pitches worse in high leverage versus low/medium leverage. And we can also say that about genuinely every pitcher in baseball because it's harder to pitch in high leverage versus low/medium leverage positions. I mean what? For instance, Puk is .75 ERA worse in high leverage versus low leverage outings for his career. Tanner Scott? 1.00 ERA worse for his career in high/low outings. This is just puzzling. How one thinks Puk is not very good when he's 13th-37th overall in production for all relievers over 3 years, and effectively top 5 overall for a lefty, is beyond me. It goes to everyone remembers the RP blowups, and not the whole performance. Everyone hates their bullpen. That's all I can try and rationalize this for you. Everyone hates their own bullpen.

[fish16]

Asked/Answered, but here you go again:

Since the start of 2022, Puk is 37th in RP WAR (7th lefty)

Start of 2023, 14th (# 4 lefty)

Start of 2024, 13th (# 2 lefty)

"But he looks bad" is something Lee Stone would say and you would fucking MURDER him (probably rightfully so substantively in your defense).

You aren't wrong he pitches worse in high leverage versus low/medium leverage. And we can also say that about genuinely every pitcher in baseball because it's harder to pitch in high leverage versus low/medium leverage positions. I mean what? For instance, Puk is .75 ERA worse in high leverage versus low leverage outings for his career. Tanner Scott? 1.00 ERA worse for his career in high/low outings. This is just puzzling. How one thinks Puk is not very good when he's 13th-37th overall in production for all relievers over 3 years, and effectively top 5 overall for a lefty, is beyond me. It goes to everyone remembers the RP blowups, and not the whole performance. Everyone hates their bullpen. That's all I can try and rationalize this for you. Everyone hates their own bullpen.

…..and bleday is 8th this year in war, as an everyday player, at a premium position. That’s the entire point. I never said puk sucks as a reliever, hes just not reliable in high leverage and he’s not as valuable as an every day player at a premium position. Hence why it would take puk 3 years to produce the war bleday can produce in 1

[lou]

…..and bleday is 8th this year in war, as an everyday player, at a premium position. That’s the entire point. I never said puk sucks as a reliever, hes just not reliable in high leverage and he’s not as valuable as an every day player at a premium position. Hence why it would take puk 3 years to produce the war bleday can produce in 1

And I say look at the statcast for Bleday, it’s not real and overachieving. DLC has a higher expected slugging today than Bleday for some perspective here. The punching bag. An OF like Bleday is going to need to hit.

Bleday is gonna be a CF like Yelich is a CF, or Edwards a SS, or Burger a 3B, or Arraez a 2B. He’s going to shift to LF with Butler (who is better than Bleday) is in RF and Rooker DH unless they trade him because he’s older. They need a CF too. I mean good for Bledsy he is absolutely a viable low/mid end starter now, but he’s not a premium player at a premium position at all.

This all started with Nick commenting about lamenting Bleday and it’s a nothing burger to me. Puk was great and cross your fingers on DDLS. I’m scared on this one but we shall see.

[fish16]

And I say look at the statcast for Bleday, it’s not real and overachieving. DLC has a higher expected slugging today than Bleday for some perspective here. The punching bag. An OF like Bleday is going to need to hit.

Bleday is gonna be a CF like Yelich is a CF, or Edwards a SS, or Burger a 3B, or Arraez a 2B. He’s going to shift to LF with Butler (who is better than Bleday) is in RF and Rooker DH unless they trade him because he’s older. They need a CF too. I mean good for Bledsy he is absolutely a viable low/mid end starter now, but he’s not a premium player at a premium position at all.

This all started with Nick commenting about lamenting Bleday and it’s a nothing burger to me. Puk was great and cross your fingers on DDLS. I’m scared on this one but we shall see.

Just like dlc is heading for that breakout any minute now because statcast says so. He has flatly, objectively, been a top 8 cf in baseball this year. That’s more valuable than a reliever. It’s a bad trade to have traded him for puk. Hopefully ddls power translates to the mlb level

youre a slave to what fangraphs tells you to think

[nny]

Fuck it I’ll be the one in the DDLS train here. Hit another bomb. Choo Choo mother fuckers

Also I did not know there were so many train smilies

[nny]

Ah fuck they didn't work

Picture a bunch of train smilies in my post

[nny]

[Namaste]

Fuck it I’ll be the one in the DDLS train here. Hit another bomb. Choo Choo mother fuckers

Also I did not know there were so many train smilies

Fangraphs described DDLS as a Jake Burger clone.

CHOO CHOOOOOOOO

[lou]

This entire conversation is about reliever value relative to other positions. All else being equal- does an average reliever get as much as an average starter. No, because starters are more valuable. Doesn’t mean no relievers have significant value. You think you have this gotcha moment. I’ve never said they have no value, I said they don’t have nearly as much value as position players or starting pitchers, all else being equal, which is 100% true

compare a thoroughly mediocre to bad starter like rogers to a mediocre to bad reliever.

Didn't see this one, but you are changing the subject because you realize you are wrong. This is a classic defensive mechanism. You are trying to re-frame the question to deflect against it and not answer it. Maybe you should go into politics? You're fantastic at this. You said relievers have significantly reduced value in trades. I said no, and look at Estevez/Adam/Scott deals. And noted you loved the Scott trade. You are now changing to - does an average reliever get as much as an average starter. That isn't what you said. You said relievers have significantly reduced value in trades. Which is a weird statement IMO from what we just saw multiple teams do. But feel free to defend yourself which is what my question to you here is, or just say yea that was wrong and dumb.

The point being here - it's OK to admit Rosario was not a longterm SS prospect for this team which I will keep saying to show you that it is OK to say one can be wrong about things - I thought Hermida was going to be the next Brian Giles, Joey Gathright was going to be mini-Pierre and pretty good, Delmon Young was going to be a superstar, Hayes (Pitt) be the next great 3B in baseball. I thought the Marlins should have signed BJ Upton when he was a free agent and that would have been mostly a miss. Doesn't seem like JD Davis and Urshela would have been good off season signings even if good ideas at the time based on their depth (Lorenzen is good enough though!). This is not a very serious issue ultimately with yes RP value, but just take a step back and realize this macho message board warrior shtick doesn't need to happen, as well as, words matter and if you just mistyped or phrased something weird on your cell phone, shit happens. I'm not the only one who points out here "that's not what you said" and then you get pissy about it and suggest words don't matter. You are not stupid, but you genuinely do dumb things sometimes. I believe in you. You don't need to respond. Just be normal. You can do it. This is a pep talk.

[lou]

Just like dlc is heading for that breakout any minute now because statcast says so. He has flatly, objectively, been a top 8 cf in baseball this year. That’s more valuable than a reliever. It’s a bad trade to have traded him for puk. Hopefully ddls power translates to the mlb level

youre a slave to what fangraphs tells you to think

But I'm a slave to what fangraphs tells me.... but Fangraphs says Bleday is good and apparently the 8th best CF, and I am saying its smoke and mirrors based on his analytical profile and I'd rather have Jesus Sanchez who fangraphs says is objectively worse, but I like his profile better because he hits the ball harder and is a better defender (maybe, Bleday moving to LF will be more interesting) so I expect him to be better as we move forward as he has the underlying traits to be a successful major leaguer for a longterm period.

So I ask, how am I a slave to fangraphs and only look at 1 thing, which is the narrative you like to make for unknown reasons, when I am flat out saying I don't see it via Fangraphs WAR calculations and I like these other thoughts better. And if you want a second example, tell me again how much WAR Edward Cabrera has for his career and I'll tell you how much I don't care as I see a burgeoning explosion if they can figure out the pitch mix and will cite the 2023 statcast that he just needs to tweak the stuff a little and take a minor leap of faith some walks decrease. That's a leap of faith I will take he can get the control under control similar to Tanner Scott, but hey whatever? Maybe I am wrong! What I think will happen with Bleday is what is happening to guys like Lane Thomas (3.2 WAR last year) and Austin Hays (2.5 WAR last year). Guys have good years. Then they don't because the overall package is a major leaguer for sure, but not going to be this consistent 2.5-3 WAR longer term starter because there are huge weaknesses in the profile. It was so obvious Lane Thomas was going to tank quickly this year. I see a nominal LF starter in Bleday. If he starts hitting for more power or happens to become elite defensively in a corner, or gets a true RHP split, that would change things. I don't see it. And you know what - maybe I'm wrong and his prospect pedigree takes over and can tap into that power! I'm a big advocate of swing path changes right? I just don't see it with Bleday. I'd simply take Puk over him all day even today, as Puk is elite via his actual performance and analytical profile and Bleday is OK on the underlying metrics and I see him as overachieving.

Also this has been explained about 50 times, but DLC's profile EARNED him playing time (and kind of still does with the slugging potential at DH only as obviously he cannot field at all) because the hit profile is objectively interesting with how hard he does hit it and has showed glimpses of having a mini-Teoscar breakout during times. The only thing I would plant a flag about with DLC is - they should play him and see what happens. It wasn't a yes/no this guy is going to make it - I will take that bet for someone like Cabrera that YES he is going to make it eventually in some role. He's a dude. But DLC was -only- ever hey this is all suggestive of better days, so you play him and play him hard to see what happens. Dare I say, this is kind of like how Otto's defense is so out of this world right now, with a hit profile that says he's a high .600 OPS player and that works for a 2B, so you play him and see if he hits as he is earning time by doing some very good things in the profile. Maybe Otto falls apart? Doesn't mean they shouldn't be playing him. Bride's analytics don't say he is good, but he's doing well enough offensively lately even if a little lucky, so he falls in the same bucket on a different level of analysis. Play him. See what happens. He's worth some time until he isn't. When guys earn time, you play them. DLC earned time. It didn't work out here. Maybe it does in Pitt. It's over. Shim looks cool now. Let's all rally around Shim getting healthy.

[lou]

Fuck it I’ll be the one in the DDLS train here. Hit another bomb. Choo Choo mother fuckers

Also I did not know there were so many train smilies

Leave a seat, but I'm not getting on for a few stops. Get me there though? I'm open. The whiffs/chase projections are difficult. Brandon Wood? We just believing in the exit velocities and who cares if he whiffs 33% of the time?

Poor man's Brent Rooker? Which I guess is Jake Burger? Just rocket LHP and does enough against RHP to make him a viable high .700 or better OPS DH?

[rmc523]

This 15 page debate about 2 players no longer on the team is lovely!

[fish16]

But I'm a slave to what fangraphs tells me.... but Fangraphs says Bleday is good and apparently the 8th best CF, and I am saying its smoke and mirrors based on his analytical profile and I'd rather have Jesus Sanchez who fangraphs says is objectively worse, but I like his profile better because he hits the ball harder and is a better defender (maybe, Bleday moving to LF will be more interesting) so I expect him to be better as we move forward as he has the underlying traits to be a successful major leaguer for a longterm period.

So I ask, how am I a slave to fangraphs and only look at 1 thing, which is the narrative you like to make for unknown reasons, when I am flat out saying I don't see it via Fangraphs WAR calculations and I like these other thoughts better. And if you want a second example, tell me again how much WAR Edward Cabrera has for his career and I'll tell you how much I don't care as I see a burgeoning explosion if they can figure out the pitch mix and will cite the 2023 statcast that he just needs to tweak the stuff a little and take a minor leap of faith some walks decrease. That's a leap of faith I will take he can get the control under control similar to Tanner Scott, but hey whatever? Maybe I am wrong! What I think will happen with Bleday is what is happening to guys like Lane Thomas (3.2 WAR last year) and Austin Hays (2.5 WAR last year). Guys have good years. Then they don't because the overall package is a major leaguer for sure, but not going to be this consistent 2.5-3 WAR longer term starter because there are huge weaknesses in the profile. It was so obvious Lane Thomas was going to tank quickly this year. I see a nominal LF starter in Bleday. If he starts hitting for more power or happens to become elite defensively in a corner, or gets a true RHP split, that would change things. I don't see it. And you know what - maybe I'm wrong and his prospect pedigree takes over and can tap into that power! I'm a big advocate of swing path changes right? I just don't see it with Bleday. I'd simply take Puk over him all day even today, as Puk is elite via his actual performance and analytical profile and Bleday is OK on the underlying metrics and I see him as overachieving.

Also this has been explained about 50 times, but DLC's profile EARNED him playing time (and kind of still does with the slugging potential at DH only as obviously he cannot field at all) because the hit profile is objectively interesting with how hard he does hit it and has showed glimpses of having a mini-Teoscar breakout during times. The only thing I would plant a flag about with DLC is - they should play him and see what happens. It wasn't a yes/no this guy is going to make it - I will take that bet for someone like Cabrera that YES he is going to make it eventually in some role. He's a dude. But DLC was -only- ever hey this is all suggestive of better days, so you play him and play him hard to see what happens. Dare I say, this is kind of like how Otto's defense is so out of this world right now, with a hit profile that says he's a high .600 OPS player and that works for a 2B, so you play him and see if he hits as he is earning time by doing some very good things in the profile. Maybe Otto falls apart? Doesn't mean they shouldn't be playing him. Bride's analytics don't say he is good, but he's doing well enough offensively lately even if a little lucky, so he falls in the same bucket on a different level of analysis. Play him. See what happens. He's worth some time until he isn't. When guys earn time, you play them. DLC earned time. It didn't work out here. Maybe it does in Pitt. It's over. Shim looks cool now. Let's all rally around Shim getting healthy.

fine, you're a complete slave to fangraphs and statcast with 0 in the way of actual, real life, evaluation by actually watching people play, which you very clearly dont. That's my problem with you, everything is exclusively based on fangraphs and whatever other advanced stats you use with 0 in the way of actual real life evaluation based on watching people play. Im not saying using analytics is bad, but there is a reason why scouts still exist. Your exclusive use of stats with nothing in the way of actual real life evaluation by watching these people play leads you to thoroughly overrate a ton of players. If you did actually watch these guys, you know, play baseball, you would be able to tell very easily that DLC always sucked and has literally always been exactly what he has been his entire major league and minor league career. You fall in love with exit velocities with guys like sanchez without ever seeing they have giant holes in their game that are not obvious beyond the stat sheet. Hitting the ball hard is important, but that alone as a trait does not make anyone a breakout candidate. Sanchez has some of the worst plate discipline you've ever seen. That's why he has been a thoroughly mediocre pro. That's why he hits 470 foot bombs and has a .700 OPS and sub .300 OBP. Not because he is unlucky and has some major breakout coming absent major changes to his approach and swing.

That's my only issue with you. Everything is based exclusively on statistics with no room for any other differing opinions based on people who actually watch these guys play compared to you making evaluations exclusively based off what fangraphs or statcast or whatever other analyitc site you use tells you. DLC's profile didnt earn any playing time, because anyone who actually watched the dude play could very easily tell you he had almost no positive aspects to his game other than the occasional time he made contact, the ball was often hit hard. the issue is he rarely made contact, had some of the worst at bats you've ever seen, was a god awful fielder, and possibly an even worse base runner. You have a giant hole in how you evaluate players. for you to continue to say that DLC still has any kind of full time starter potential is beyond laughable. he's been the same fucking guy his entire 10 year professional career.

[Nick]

Leave a seat, but I'm not getting on for a few stops. Get me there though? I'm open. The whiffs/chase projections are difficult. Brandon Wood? We just believing in the exit velocities and who cares if he whiffs 33% of the time?

Poor man's Brent Rooker? Which I guess is Jake Burger? Just rocket LHP and does enough against RHP to make him a viable high .700 or better OPS DH?

His Strikeout rate is not taking a huge downturn, but it is getting better every year.

2022 (Including AFL): 26.8%
2023: 26%
2024: 24%

BB%
2022 (Including AFL): 6.2%
2023: 5.2%
2024: 6.4%

Again, not huge gains, but gains. He's 21 years old. This is the type of thing a hitter can improve on, and honestly I don't think that K% is terrible to begin with.

Yeah we've been burned by these high strikeout guys but to me he's not on that level. For Reference:

Minor League K%
Burdick: 31.5%
Harrison: 33%
Conine: 34.8%
Bleday: 22.1% (but Bleday only had 43 HRs total in 1119 PAs, DDLS has 35 this year. When Bleday was 21 he was still in college/getting drafted.)

What are the whiff/chase projections you're seeing? Or is this just based on a FanGraphs blurb?