2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

20th percentile defense, but yes - SSS

If he can get that to 40th percentile (I will not be optimistic here), maybe we can consider him a SS if he's going to hit .300, but I don't see either right now. His analytics profile is roughly .270/.340/.350, which may seem like an insult to show sub .700 OPS with what he is doing..... but he has a .450 BABIP (lol) and that OBP is screaming off the page to me as awesome for who Edwards is + base running potential + should be good at 2B. He's a piece, we can just debate how good of one he is. But he's a piece. I absolutely love a .340 OBP Edwards moving forward as a 2B/SS/LF hybrid and fuck slugging ultimately. That's a bonus. Only 40 qualified hitters have a .340 OBP in baseball just for some perspective here. Offense is way way down. Just want to note here for Namaste...... Arraez has a .337 OBP this season. ::runs::


I think the long term best case scenario is Edwards, Serna, and Sanoja are collectively MLB players and are "fine" collectively as backup SS options so they don't have to carry two of them, and they just get a fucking every day SS via Adames or trade. I would agree, he is a little better than expected at SS so far, but he still has a long ways to go.


The real question is - WHAT WAS KIM THINKING LAST YEAR??? Edwards missed so much time this season so he is currently "rusty" arguably from a playing time perspective. The Phillies were still going to kick their ass, but what was Kim thinking here not unleashing this guy versus what they had? I will never get this one looking in hindsight.

I see a lot of Luis Castillo in Edwards. Bump that average up 20 points and make it .290/.360/.375, all of a sudden you have something special with his speed. He's 17/19 in stolen bases in about 221 PAs in his MLB career. About a 3rd of a full season. Triple those stolen base numbers and you have a guy with 50+ steals who is rarely thrown out. Castillo sat at about .330 BABIP and I think that's ultimately where Edwards will end up as well. I think he'll show a bit more power eventually at the big league level. He had 13 HRs in about a season and a 3rd at AAA. Not a ton, but more than his one in 221 PAs at the big league level so far.

[Todd]

I think I'm going to go up to Beloit and watch a few games next week. Been needing a short trip just to have a mental break and they are only 4 hrs away.

Hoping get to see Meyer, White, or Milbrandt.

[lou]

I see a lot of Luis Castillo in Edwards. Bump that average up 20 points and make it .290/.360/.375, all of a sudden you have something special with his speed. He's 17/19 in stolen bases in about 221 PAs in his MLB career. About a 3rd of a full season. Triple those stolen base numbers and you have a guy with 50+ steals who is rarely thrown out. Castillo sat at about .330 BABIP and I think that's ultimately where Edwards will end up as well. I think he'll show a bit more power eventually at the big league level. He had 13 HRs in about a season and a 3rd at AAA. Not a ton, but more than his one in 221 PAs at the big league level so far.

Yea, it's all about the OBP. But Castillo was also a stellar stellar defender so he has a higher top end. But like we care if Edwards is a 2+ WARish guy for years. Maybe that's low if he has that .360 OBP + great base runner + above average at 2B. Sign me up.

Edwards looks like a 70th percentile range base runner on statcast which is very good. I do try to look at the overall picture there versus SB as I think the going 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home is just as valuable as SB as an extra base is an extra base regardless if reflected in a SB quantity analysis, etc. Just saying outloud here. He is flashing base running in any metric we want to use and hopefully comfort leads to improvement where he can pick his spots even more. There is floor and upside here for sure.

I only see slugging as a weakness once he firmly gets to 2B. Not with you yet on the power, but if he can get to .400+ between a high average and a lot of 2B/3B, he becomes a total monster at say..... .300/.370/.400 w/ speed and defense. That's a monster baseball player. The closest 2023 hitting comp to that might be Kim (4.3 WAR), but he is an amazing defender. Knock Edwards down a bit and that's a 3+ WAR player quickly. I don't think we will be so lucky, but he's a piece. .270/.340/.360 would be awesome if that's the floor here.

What. Was. Kim. Thinking.

[Namaste]

They need to get a L-Screen for Max Meyer before he gets hurt out there.

[Nick]

We’ve totally f’ed with Meyer’s head.

[fish16]

We’ve totally f’ed with Meyer’s head.

No shit. They wouldn’t let him throw many pitches or many innings and he wasn’t pitching every 5 days I believe. It was like once a week. It was absurd. Said that a month or two ago when I was looking at his game logs in aaa.

[Nick]

No shit. They wouldn’t let him throw many pitches or many innings and he wasn’t pitching every 5 days I believe. It was like once a week. It was absurd. Said that a month or two ago when I was looking at his game logs in aaa.

Not to mention the ridiculous lengths they went to screw him out of future earnings.

[fish16]

Not to mention went to ridiculous degrees to screw him out of future earnings.

And then people on this board wonder why good free agents never want to sign here

[Namaste]

Wow I just realized the Guardians had a 2% chance of winning the draft lottery. We're totally getting the 6th pick in the 2025 draft.

[Namaste]

And then people on this board wonder why good free agents never want to sign here

Good free agents that the PoBo doesn't have the green light to sign because Bruce is a broke dik pro sports owner?

[fish16]

Good free agents that the PoBo doesn't have the green light to sign because Bruce is a broke dik pro sports owner?

He could have a green light, no major free agent will sign here until this organization as a whole changes how it treats and handles players and overall behaves. This is not a desirable destination, and they will never outbid every other team significantly for a star to be forced to play here. There is a reason why every single player they sign is either a mediocre guy coming off a career year that was unsustainable or a reclamation project coming off a terrible year. Great players will have other options, and those other options will always be a better choice for stars because this is a minor league organization from top to bottom

[fish16]

Another fucking two hit game for Edwards. Unreal

[lou]

Not to mention the ridiculous lengths they went to screw him out of future earnings.

Every team in baseball does this though, including the Orioles with Jackson Holliday. The Rays do this as the gold standard. We're all really happy the Marlins did this with Garrett and Cabrera but those checks don't get cashed for 2 years, same as Max. I don't get the constant criticism here. Especially since......

Max is flashing 1 pitch (slider) and his FB and CU are getting hammered. Batters are Ted Williams against the changeup, and the fastball is a bit better and more like everyone is Bobby Witt instead. It's that bad. Slider is great. That isn't due to keep him in the minors. He's had reliever risk since the time he was drafted as a smaller prospect slider dominant, and would the FB/secondaries catch up. His AAA numbers are fine especially for a guy oft injured. This is a big ole, give him time and guys have bad starts/stretches especially as they jump levels. The FB and CU need to improve dramatically, or he's going to be the team's 8th or 9th inning guy in 2026 throwing 45% sliders and max effort heaters. Which, may not be a big deal if Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, and Weathers is a core rotation or whatever it is.

He'll probably be fine as he adjusts as he has a legitimate wipe out pitch which not everyone has and that is extremely valuable for him, but guys are just sitting on the fastball basically. Welcome to the bigs. It's hard. I think there is huge runway for him to work this out. Or, he becomes an awesome reliever. Extremely SSS:

1st time through - Guys are hitting .196/.241/.412, with 3.14 ERA (xFIP 3.59)
2nd time through - .333/.423/.689.... with a 5.91 era (xFIP 5.43)

I'd just throw him too to get innings right now, but if the Marlins were actually trying to win and make the playoffs, he's going 2+ innings only right now on a good team more than likely.

[lou]

Good free agents that the PoBo doesn't have the green light to sign because Bruce is a broke dik pro sports owner?

Yes this is it nearly completely. Or, Justin Turner who wants to chase rings not be a mentor to kid bats for similar money. That's the guy they can't get.

Miami is an attractive life destination for someone who wants the bucks if the team is also good for a veteran who wants to not get killed. Which the Marlins have a top 5 pitching situation very arguably and a lot of hope coming with the bats. There is a real plan here and the Marlins are in much better shape internally than non-baseball fans think. The problem is just, Bruce won't spend to get it over the top. The Giants are said to be a top landing spot for Adames. If money is relatively equal, the Marlins have a better longterm set up with their SP and Adames is Dominican so its gonna be a bit closer to home. He would pick Miami quickly IMO if those are his 1A and 1B options and each is in the $120-140m range.

But also to mention - look how Chapman, Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, etc. aren't getting signed and Boras looks terrible. The Marlins could swoop in and be a FA like that's savior as those guys are clearly only money oriented with the contracts they backed themselves in. I have been thinking, Chapman might make a lot of sense as a "cheaper Adames" and these hypothetical trades that get popped out there maybe should be focused on SS, as Chapman does look amazing. He's opting out of 2/$36 quickly and I don't see why he can't get 4/$80m from the Marlins. Last year of that deal may be rough, but you have a lot of club controlled guys, and he has a 3+ WAR pace for 7 years now and looks better than ever maybe. Frankly, Bruce should sign *BOTH* of them and I bet you can do it with a $100m payroll which is fucking nothing. That's how bad Bruce Sherman is. Keep all the pitching, sign Adames and Chapman, trade a major minor leaguer (including Noble) for a club controlled CF for right now, and a keep every arm + Adames + Chapman + a FV50 or so CF becomes a "wow" moment for $100m in payroll give or take. Bruce sucks. He can't even spend 23rd in the league or whatever.

It's Bruce not green lighting the money, which in turn spurns folks not showing up as why invest time in the team if he doesn't give a shit. It's not keeping guys down for service time or they don't have a good 2nd/3rd pitch. All the chutes and ladders lead right back to Bruce not spending money to improve the team for years and years with this last offseason Exhibit A.

[lou]

Another fucking two hit game for Edwards. Unreal

.464 BABIP

But

Expected slash .273/.343/.353. Base running 75th percentile or so but doesn't qualify yet. Defense took a small dip to 18th percentile. 21st percentile arm strength. It's just gonna be 2B but that's fine with that glowing OBP projection and base running chops. Defense will radically tick up at 2B I imagine. Great showing. Kim's a dope for not unleashing him.


And BTW, Edwards service time

Started - 52 Days
Early Season DL - 60 days (he ended season on 26 man roster so I believe this all counts as MLB service time)
3 Day June recall - 3 days
Called up 7/2 - 90 days (give or take) to end of season
=205 days

1.033 Days of service based on league calendar.


No service time manipulation. If they kept him down 34 days, they'd get another year (age 30) and make him a super2. So just to say out loud, they don't always do this. Absolutely with Garrett, Eury, and Max, but not Edwards.

And when Norby comes up in 2-3 weeks, he'll fall into this no manipulation bucket too FWIW