2024 Game Thread

[lou]

There is also no upgrading Burger. They picked their guys.

DDLS, Martorella, and Berry (top pick pedigree) are the pool for probably 2-3 seasons minimum. Maybe Ramirez or Johnston doesn’t thing and moves here. They will try these guys hard and for years.

[nny]

I think that mostly comes down to what you're arguing against.

Are you arguing against him being a cornerstone piece? Sure, but I doubt anyone that thinks a guy that is almost 30 is a cornerstone piece.

Are you arguing against him being a complimentary piece for a few years where we are able to actively suppress his wages because the baseball economy is so fucked for the vast majority of its workers? Cuz like, that's a lot of surplus value you're hating on while completely ignoring the aggregate of his offensive output. It's not like people are calling for him for an extension, but if he is who he has been (which, has been a solid career so far that's being ignored. The only real knock is terrible 3B defense) then he is a good complimentary piece.

edit as then that was cleared up:

Also I don't hate Burger. But he isn't some young guy. He's a guy who hits home runs sometimes but is completely unplayable when he isn't doing that. He should be one of the first you look to upgrade on.

I don't really disagree but we gotta worry about fielding a full competent team first before even worrying about upgrading older average players

[lou]

Lets map 2025 SP. Im kicking Luzardo off for a CF trade or whatever:


SP
Sandy - 180 IP. Lets assume slowly works up and not immediately a 210 guy
Garrett - 160 IP. Reasonable if healthy
Max - 140 IP. Slight babying
Cabrera - 140 IP. Slight babying
Weathers - 140 IP. Slight babying

SP Injury replacements
Munoz - 75 IP Early season SP6. He will pitch more than we want. Some RP innings here later
Eury - 75 IP. Tempering expectations for a soft launch in July +
Snelling - 60 IP. Gonna be ideally a launch in July for 4 IP appearances like they did Max that last start IMO, but fills in early like Max did as needed

RP
Mazur - 90 IP bulk starter/reliever
Bender - 60 IP
Cronin - 60 IP
Nardi - 60 IP
Faucher - 50 IP
Maldonado - 50 IP
2nd Lefty not on team yet - 50 IP

RP Replacements
Rotating AAA relievers for last spot - 100 IP. This is garbage time and injury fill ins. Ramirez, Soriano, etc. Bendix specials

=1440 innings


Unlike last year where I wanted Lorenzen to help bridge, I don't think they need a SP next year with getting Mazur (who I have 6th on the team in innings. I don't hate him) and Snelling. I think this is very good and they have enough *WITHOUT JESUS LUZARDO.*

If Bruce allows it, by all means sign another 100+ IP guy to help bridge to the summer for Eury/Snelling/Get Munoz into the RP Replacement category. That would be what a non-cheap franchise would do and would be great to open as a 6 man rotation (or double up the 5th SP) to really ease the staff as literally all 5 of those guys have been hurt this year.

But this is a better plan day 1 than 2024 already WITHOUT JESUS LUZARDO. And that's a credit to Peter.


I'm just saying this as the Rays use excellent pitchers as bulk starters/relievers. I just see that as Mazur's future. Feel free to keep him in AAA to work out stuff, but I think a deployment as a 2+ inning guy in spurts next year as a bridge reliever or even a 2 inning "closer" is a smart future for him. Especially with all the other SP in front of him. He is not a top 5 option any of the next few years for this team more than likely.

[lou]

I think that mostly comes down to what you're arguing against.

Are you arguing against him being a cornerstone piece? Sure, but I doubt anyone that thinks a guy that is almost 30 is a cornerstone piece.

Are you arguing against him being a complimentary piece for a few years where we are able to actively suppress his wages because the baseball economy is so fucked for the vast majority of its workers? Cuz like, that's a lot of surplus value you're hating on while completely ignoring the aggregate of his offensive output. It's not like people are calling for him for an extension, but if he is who he has been (which, has been a solid career so far that's being ignored. The only real knock is terrible 3B defense) then he is a good complimentary piece.

edit as then that was cleared up:



I don't really disagree but we gotta worry about fielding a full competent team first before even worrying about upgrading older average players

Right. They did that - they moved DLC for instance. And before that, Arraez and Berti. Jazz is the only gut check one here.

It's really easy. They will tell us who gets the jobs on the field

C - Ramirez, Fortes <--- Mack and Banfield are coming for Fortes job
1B- Burger, DDLS <--- Martorella and Berry crawling down their throats
2B - Edwards, Otto <---- Maybe meteoric rise of Serna over Otto
SS - _______
3B - _______ <---- Maybe Bride or Pauley is good
LF - Sanchez, Norby
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr. <---- Maybe meteoric rise of Sasaki or Pintar
RF - Stowers <---- Pauley here too


Burger and DDLS have to fight off Martorella and Berry - who each can stay in the minors for 2025-2027 minimum. This is a multi-year battle for those spots. And there are 2 of them. Burger is going to be cheap for whatever he does.

Don't need to over think Burger. Settle it on the field. Best case scenario is DDLS is a beast at DH, Martorella can play some LF and hits righties to open up some time for him, and Berry regains his draft pedigree and hits everything. Burger is shoved out while doing well.

I don't know if they can go 4/4 here with these guys, but I do think they can go 2/4 and Burger is kind of already a "1" here IMO and that's pretty damn good ultimately.

[Todd]

Fwiw if Alcantra is healthy and pitching well I'd be shocked if he is here past next seasons deadline.

[Namaste]

Fwiw if Alcantra is healthy and pitching well I'd be shocked if he is here past next seasons deadline.

You and like 80% of the forum and most advanced analytic MLB Network guys.

[Namaste]

But also remember the early days of forums when people actually used them instead of social media? :'(

---

Yes, we are hanging on by a thread here.

Great to see you back posting!

[lou]

Fwiw if Alcantra is healthy and pitching well I'd be shocked if he is here past next seasons deadline.

If they aren't contending or have guys fail, maybe.


If you also map payroll, if they trade Luzardo preseason and I will say CF and lower A guys, and then Sandy midseason, and then Fortes, Sanchez, Burger, Bender, and Nardi midseason because why not, this entire team is club controlled except Garrett and Cabrera

C - Ramirez, Mack/Banfield
1B - DDLS, Martorella
2B - Serna, Edwards
SS - _______
3B - _______, Pauley
LF - Norby
CF - "Guy for Luzardo", Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Stowers

SP - Eury, Garrett(S2), Cabrera(S2), Weathers, Max, Snelling
RHP - Mazur, Bender, Faucher, Maldonado, Munoz
LHP - ______, ________

Garrett and Cabrera will make like $4-5m combined.

This roster of 22 players will cost $20m, excuse me $35 million because of Garcia and Go(SDP trade).




Which then Garcia goes down to $5 and Go away in 2026, but then Garrett and Cabrera hit Arb 1, and so does Max and Weathers

So this 22 man roster above in 2026 costs at absolute most $47m..... which includes Stanton is now being paid (thanks Jeff).

That 22 man roster

+Sandy
+Burger
+Sanchez
+Bender
+Nardi

Trade returns


Like at some point you aren't paying anyone and it makes sense to just keep them.



How about add Adames and make it 23 roster spots filled out for $70m?

How about keep Sandy and it's $87m



2026 this is $87m:

C - Ramirez, Mack/Banfield
1B - DDLS, Martorella
2B - Serna, Edwards
SS - Adames
3B - _______, Pauley
LF - Norby
CF - "Guy for Luzardo", Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Stowers

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera+Weathers, Max+Snelling
RHP - Mazur, Faucher/whoever, Maldonado/whoever
LHP - ______, ________

+Burger
+Sanchez
+Bender
+Nardi trade returns


So will Sandy be traded? Depends on if many of the guys above fail and they need him to replace 2-3 spots. If not, Sandy is fine payroll wise, so is adding Adames, and Burger/Sanchez/Bender/Nardi should be able to get you club controlled relievers for the needed upgrades there.


So they need to luck out on a 3B with Pauley here?


And they might have Ethan Holliday (3b) g# 1 pick in 2025 for a swift arrival?


So does Sandy need to be traded with this payroll structure? Not necessarily. Depends on if these guys all work out and land and they have built in some redundancies now.


Peter has done good. Its up to Bruce now.

[Todd]

I disagree with you vehemently about Mazur.

[sports24/7]

From the latest Barry Jackson and Mish article about Mazur:

An industry source said Mazur could be the best player in the deal but he might significant time in the minor leagues; he was rushed to the big leagues recently. Bowden said Snelling, in his view, was the “Padres best pitching prospect…[Miami] only got him because of a down year...Fastball is 93-97 with a wicked deceptive change up and a plus curveball. He has below average control and command. However, when the control and command arrives, he has the potential of being their third starter after [Sandy] Alcantara and [Eury] Perez.” Bowden said “the Padres rushed” Mazur but “he profiles as a mid rotation starter when fully developed. Give him a couple more years.”

Here's the full article, if anyone is interested: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...#storylink=cpy

[lou]

I disagree with you vehemently about Mazur.

I hope you are right and fangraphs and pipeline (they even say two good pitches, but may cut it as a 2 time through guy) is wrong.

[lou]

From the latest Barry Jackson and Mish article about Mazur:



Here's the full article, if anyone is interested: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...#storylink=cpy

I think a reliever path makes things quicker for Mazur, but if they are “years” away a lot a lot harder to trade Luzardo.

Which is a problem as they need major bats still.

[lou]

FG on deadline - On the reliever side of things, Tanner Scott was the clear prize of the deadline, and the Padres did Padres things by offering a bunch of their non-elite prospects for him…… The Marlins and Blue Jays did a decent amount of selling, and I liked what both teams got back. The Marlins went for quantity over quality, which makes sense given the shape of their system. They were extremely thin all the way down, and now they have a lot more interesting young players than they did a week ago. Honestly, they might belong in winners, but I already threw enough names in there and I think that some of their down-roster reliever trades left something on the table. Either way, I’m excited to see what the farm system looks like by next year.


Sounds about right to me. It was quantity besides Jazz where they got a top end, and Puk and of all folks Brazoban were low returns for me.

Someone is gonna be real wrong here “a bunch of non elite prospects” for Scott and others gushing Mazur is the best guy and Snelling is a future # 3. Analysts battle lines.

[sports24/7]

The most interesting prospect they got might be Shim. I was listening to a podcast today, and they were saying his stuff is insane, but he's only pitched 8 innings (total, since he was signed) with all of the health issues. The health thing is a very real concern, but the upside seems to be massive if he can ever get healthy. Especially developing in this system.

Interestingly, that same podcast talked about how the Marlins essentially bought low on all of the prospects they got back from the Padres. A year ago, that haul might have gotten you a front line starter, but it sounds like they rushed Mazur and Pauley, and all of them struggled this season. That doesn't necessarily mean this isn't who they are, and that all 3 of the top names will return to glory, but I do like the idea that there may be more there. And, like I mentioned with Shim, there should be a bonus here with the organization's ability to develop pitchers (and we shouldn't ignore that the Padres have not done so well in that area). To me, that makes Snelling and Mazur even more compelling.

[Nick]

The new look Pensacola Blue Wahoos scored 36 runs in a doubleheader today.