2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

I'm happy for him.

I hope he wins it all.

I'm happy for him.

But my sons are watching this Yankeez/Phillies game with their Marlins Jazz jerseys on and they look like their pet died. It'll pass but right now it sucks for young Marlins fans. Stanton 2.0

[fish16]

Just so you know entering today, where he kicked the Rays ass, he had a xFIP 3.92 this season. So that's going down tomorrow. It's a small sample size of 43 IP, but that's ok. Career xFIP 4.28. And it's going to tick down a few tomorrow. If that is all you get from him, he is worth every penny getting some free agency years. Go look at his 2023 statcast when he threw the most - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb. It's Diet Blake Snell. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

As per why he would do that, Cabrera has career earnings of $2.05m. He might double that in arbitration, but a little lower. So he might have $4m bucks through 2025. Then if he's good, he might get $4-5m in 2026, and if he's still improving and doing awesome $8m in 2027. That's like him turning into Luzardo. So through 2027 if he is great like Luzardo turned out to be, he makes $17-20m. None of it is guaranteed today.

So guarantee him $25 for two more years and now, Cabrera has $27m today not $4m if he stays healthy until his arbitration hearing, and this is generational wealth. The Marlins get perhaps 2-4 epically cheaper years. That's the goal. This is what you need to do. Throw some reasonable IP incentives on there if his agent feels low.

And this is low risk with a RP floor, with an immense franchise altering ceiling. I'd take a swing on him and yes it’s price dependent. If he wants more, take him year to year in arb and say thank you. But I think this is a situation you can take advantage of, and also make it make sense for Cabrera.

He completed 5 innings against a terrible rays lineup tonight and got injured yet again. We have different definitions of kicking ass. He has completed 6 innings once all year. He has walked at least 3 guys in half his starts. He has been consistently injured for multiple years. I get the thought process behind signing him early. After seeing him across 4 years now and little in the way of any development, he has not earned it.

[lou]

He completed 5 innings against a terrible rays lineup tonight and got injured yet again. We have different definitions of kicking ass. He has completed 6 innings once all year. He has walked at least 3 guys in half his starts. He has been consistently injured for multiple years. I get the thought process behind signing him early. After seeing him across 4 years now and little in the way of any development, he has not earned it.

You know let me try another angle.

You have bemoaned and talked shit about Rogers for 2+ years. Always hurt, velocity is down, not the same guy as his rookie year, totally whatever and replaceable, shitty FIP. On and on and on. I’ve been saying for months you’re too harsh on him and he’s turning a corner and turning into a real solid back end guy. Hes a sneaky extension candidate himself for a 4 year deal. Been very solid since May.

He, this semi-loser to you, just got a prospect (Norby) you absolutely love and are too the moon about, and a very good speculative second one (Stowers). It was a fair deal. So how does this guy you kick in the shins every week turn into things we love?

The point here is even mediocre pitching is extremely valuable as an asset as FA prices are insane. Selling mediocre pitching years is extremely valuable. I want to create more of those. Cabrera is a weapon when he is on and I think a high floor for that price as a RP. And yes I just saw he got hurt, but this is a buy low opportunity to me. I think it’s a good idea as he has the traits to explode. Give me 90 innings a year at these prices.

And I hope Max and Weathers enter this discussion next year. But Cabrera is the one for now IMO.

[lou]

I'm happy for him.

But my sons are watching this Yankeez/Phillies game with their Marlins Jazz jerseys on and they look like their pet died. It'll pass but right now it sucks for young Marlins fans. Stanton 2.0

It’s like, maybe build a good lineup and create a better culture and the players might be happier and have fun? And thus perform better?

Jazz was always going to do this but he landed in a top 3 place for him. Hes going to be everything we ever wanted him to be now. He has the infrastructure around him now. He probably told his agent sign me forever right now and they will do it.

[Todd]

I think what was refreshing about this deadline(and draft) is it seems like they have a plan. Profile players at positions of need were targeted. In the draft and similar profile players were traded for.
Not just stop gap or move to make moves.
Whether they work out or not who knows. But it seems like for the first time in years it's like they have an idea of how they want to build.

[lou]

I think what was refreshing about this deadline(and draft) is it seems like they have a plan. Profile players at positions of need were targeted. In the draft and similar profile players were traded for.
Not just stop gap or move to make moves.
Whether they work out or not who knows. But it seems like for the first time in years it's like they have an idea of how they want to build.

I agree - this is smart process. The guys may fail, but it makes sense. The aggregate is a step forward, even if we can quib on deals we think are light returns (Arraez, Puk, Scott in particular). The overall picture makes sense.

This is a big improvement over Kim - who lets give her some credit for developing this roster they just traded for a haul - but the overall imagination was lacking from her with what now the farm and longterm depth chart looks like.

[lou]

Alright, upon reflection next year. Core lineup.

C Ramirez, Fortes/Banfield
1B Burger, DDLS
2B Edwards, Otto
SS ____ (Sanoja)
3B ____ (Norby, Sanoja)
LF Sanchez, Norby
CF ____, Sanoja
RF Stowers

vs RHP
C - Mostly Ramirez, some Fortes
1B - Burger/DDLS/Ramirez
2B - Edwards, some Otto
SS - Everyday SS Needed
3B - Norby/Sanoja/New FA Right handed 3B
LF - Sanchez
CF - New right handed CF/RF
RF - Stowers
DH - DDLS/Ramirez/Norby
B - Revolving door as everyone can play here and let them duke it out. Best guy wins the playing time. This is great.

VS LHP
C - Ramirez
1B - Burger
2B - Edwards
SS - Everyday SS Needed
3B - FA right handed 3B
LF - Norby
CF - Sanoja - he has the lefty split in AAA!
RF - New right handed CF/RF
DH - DDLS
B - Fortes, Otto, Sanchez, Stowers. And optimistically Stowers isn’t a 0 on lefties and Otto is fine defensively and hits enough so only Sanchez is the liability here

The three needs:

SS - Free agency sucks. It’s all Marlins cast offs - Rojas, Wendle, Anderson, Hampson. And then Adames. It’s Adames, make a trade, or Edwards actually can do it. I think it’s a trade as Bruce is cheap, but he should sign Adames

3B - Moncada, JD Davis. This is a cheap 90+ game starter to bridge to see if Norby, Sanoja, or Pauley (AAA) is good at 3B. Basically it’s trying to build in a floor like how they should have signed Lorenzen, Rosario, Taylor, or…. JD Davis this offseason. Those guys should be cheap coming off injuries. Maybe a 3-4 day a week role keeps them healthy and are productive as the youth is figured out. They have paths to playing time which is a good sell to them in FA. Also they shouldn’t invest much here as if they get the # 1 pick (a genuine possibility), it’s Ethan Holliday and he’s gonna be just like Jackson and fast tracked as this family is insane. I think there are some bodies here to hope into a 3B of the future to bridge into someone they can identify later. Cheap FA and reassess after the 2025 MLB draft and if Norby, Pauley, Sanoja, or whoever work out or if you get Holliday.

CF - Internal option for some right handed CF/RF type is Dane. It would be perfect if Dane turns into something and can handle 500 PA. Marsee is left handed. Sasaki is uninspiring and probably a call up guy. I don’t like Pintar as an option quickly in 2025 if ever. The best FA is Harrison Bader who is having a nice year, but something else is preferred here as he’s not the impact they need with nothing coming up quick in the farm. I’d throw it to Dane TBH versus FA or just have weird defense and use Martorella in this roster spot in LF and kick Sanchez/Stowers to CF against RHP. Not ideal as Martorella is a lefty and you’re then basically making Stowers a must play against lefties then, but not much else they can do. Frankly this is complaining that your 8/9 hole hitter may not be great against lefties if they go with Dane/Martorella that last spot. We survived DLC never working out, we can survive this as it’s probably similar. So this is internal or trade for a legitimate longterm CF.


So the TLDR bat offseason for me is:

SS - (1) Trade for a long term guy - big time trade Sandy or more likely Luzardo, (2) Adames splurge in FA, (3) be a cheap asshole and resign Rojas or similar, (4) Pray Edwards can do it and please don't be so fucking cheap we do four here

3B - Moncada or JD Davis cheap free agent type for 1 year and reassess at next deadline. This is a no brainer

CF - (1) Trade for an exceptional long term piece who is right handed (Sanchez, Stowers, Mesa Jr., Marsee, and even Head years away are lefties) or (2) a revolving door of whoever using Dane or Martorella (also a lefty) in the OF and move guys around. Pauley is also a lefty too and he may end up in the OF! Norby in LF is your only righty OF for years (Cova is next in low A), so this is all of a sudden a real need here for a big time right handed bat

[lou]

An initial trade idea to break up posts is Brooks Lee and Keaschell from Minnesota. Get a long term SS/3B and CF type and they’d have to be thrilled with Luzardo and perhaps some depth prospects since they can roll this out:

C Jeffers, Vazquez
1B Miranda, Wallner
2B Julien, Castro
SS Correa
3B Royce
LF Jenkins, Larnach
CF Buxton, A. Martin
RF Rodriguez

Lee does make sense here over Martin as a final piece absoluely, so maybe it would have to be Luzardo + Serna/Edwards/Norby which opens up Castro more for SS/3B and maybe the Marlins take back three guys to make up for it - Lee, Keaschell, and an appropriate 3rd player. Look at this. The Marlins can trade from IF depth and it might make sense to get SS/CF figured out?? They have an abundance of 2B guys right now?


If they did this (and we'll say a 2B is moved with Luzardo to Minnesota so Edwards/Serna is the 2B starter long term) and signed a 3B bridge, call it this after S2 next year

C - Ramirez, Mack
1B - Martorella, DDLS
2B - Edwards/Serna, Norby
SS - Brooks Lee (Some Sanjoa, Edwards)
3B - Moncada/Davis, Pauley
LF - Sanchez, (Some Norby, Martorella)
CF - Keaschell, Sanoja
RF - Stowers (Some Keaschell)

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max
RHP - Mazur, Bender, Cronin, Faucher, Maldonado
LHP - Nardi, ____

+Burger traded for RP if Martorella and DDLS looks good and they do have those spots



Rest of 40 man

Bats - Banfield, Pauley, Dane, Mesa Jr., Marsee, Sasaki

Arms - Snelling, Fulton, Munoz, E. Ramirez, Soriano, Simpson, etc.

If they did something like this, this is the first time in a long time I’d say they need arms over bats - and I'm pretty comfortable with the arms with Snelling, Fulton, Noble, White, and Y. Santana in the minors as high end prospects with a few reliever types like Munoz, Soriano, and Simpson.



Whether this is Minnesota or not, I expect this is the plan. It would be great to just sign Adames and target a better CF with a SP, but hey let’s just make it make sense on a youth aspect and worry about Bruce cheapness later. I think Bendix has 1 more banger in him to get a young SS and CF and use Luzardo as the main piece to do it this offseason.

Now we're talking a $60m payroll give or take and all 26 guys are accounted for except some reliever upgrades or luxury backup catcher upgrade. What a fucking world.

[lou]

And if we think Bruce might spend in 2026 as this is all sorted out by then, the free agents are

1B - Vlad, Naylor, Rizzo
SS - Kim, Bichette
3B - Chapman
OF - Tucker
DH - Arraez, Eloy, Ozuna
SP - Cease, Gallen, Snell, Senga, Woodruff, Eflin, other 4s

Cool?

Swing this back to, why spend money on long term pitching as they get hurt more, Tucker and Vlad are too expensive, Chapman is older by then, Kim is defensive first player, Bichette is who knows, Naylor, Arraez, Eloy, Ozuna, and Rizzo are just sticks and they kind of have those guys with DDLS, Berry, Martorella, etc. It's going to be backend SP only for 2026 if they dip into FA. Similar to the Rays with Eflin.

So we are swinging this back quickly to there is nothing for Bruce to splurge on in 2026 unless he wants to give Vlad $225+ million.

And then in 2027

C - Kirk, Jeffers
1B - Mountcastle
2B - Lowe, India, Lux
SS - Crawford
OF - Jazz, Suzuki, T. Ward
SP - Gausman, Luzardo, Skubal, lots of 4 types (like Rogers!)

So like, the team has likely 2B depth so that's not a thing probably. Crawford makes sense if no SS develops in 2+ full seasons but they have to get one earlier so probably not important. They can't ignore for 2 years. They have a ton of lefty OF and Jazz ain't resigning here. Don't need a 1B type. So this is maybe a catcher, maybe a right handed OF if they don't find one earlier, or back end SP. And that's assuming guys like Jeffers, Kirk, Suzuki, and Ward don't sign extensions and they all might as they are good. You can see them doing deals in 1+ years.



So the next 3 offseasons if you had to pick 1 player right now, the best C (as Ramirez may move), SS, 3B, or CF/Right Handed OF available for this team to sign that doesn't cost over $150m dollars is Willy Adames. And it's not close. He'd be 29. Defensive floor. Even if he drops off its fine as its just plugging a spot for years and he will be good enough, and the other guys are so cheap. He's the only guy they should sign in free agency for 3 seasons here, excluding 1 year stopgap types just to plug a hole around guys in the minors.


If you thought I was nuts before about him, I want to beat this drum very loudly so the Miami Herald and Barry Jackson and LeBatard call Bruce out constantly that this is the guy. Bendix knows this too for sure if I can figure this out. I hope to god he isn't resigned, but thankfully the Brewers are cheap too. They do have a FV45 SS (Brown), drafted a SS (high schooler) with their first rounder this year, and..... traded for Joey Ortiz who we did want before via a Luzardo move to be the SS here. I think it's safe to say he is hitting FA and Milwaukee has other payroll issues.

Given who the Marlins got and targeted, I am cautiously optimistic this is the idea as they have really filled out the depth chart to make this exact move. But maybe they do it with trades, but it'll be real confident inspiring to finally make this necessary move to genuine organizational competency.

[fish16]

You know let me try another angle.

You have bemoaned and talked shit about Rogers for 2+ years. Always hurt, velocity is down, not the same guy as his rookie year, totally whatever and replaceable, shitty FIP. On and on and on. I’ve been saying for months you’re too harsh on him and he’s turning a corner and turning into a real solid back end guy. Hes a sneaky extension candidate himself for a 4 year deal. Been very solid since May.

He, this semi-loser to you, just got a prospect (Norby) you absolutely love and are too the moon about, and a very good speculative second one (Stowers). It was a fair deal. So how does this guy you kick in the shins every week turn into things we love?

The point here is even mediocre pitching is extremely valuable as an asset as FA prices are insane. Selling mediocre pitching years is extremely valuable. I want to create more of those. Cabrera is a weapon when he is on and I think a high floor for that price as a RP. And yes I just saw he got hurt, but this is a buy low opportunity to me. I think it’s a good idea as he has the traits to explode. Give me 90 innings a year at these prices.

And I hope Max and Weathers enter this discussion next year. But Cabrera is the one for now IMO.

Well first, the orioles overpaid for rogers and will come to deeply regret that trade. One team overpaying at the deadline does not make rogers good or valuable on the field, which has been my contention for years about rogers, he's just not what he was that one first half in 2021. Not necessarily that he wouldnt have some sort of value in a trade. Two, rogers has a track record of success previously. He's been mediocre for numerous years at this point as i said but he has 6.3 WAR for his career over 391 innings. Cabrera has .7 war across 236 innings. Im all for signing guys early, but cabrera's performance has not merited one of those early signing contracts. He needs to show at least something before that can be justified. At this point, it's Eury and Meyer who deserve those types of contracts if we're handing them out. Cabrera has been atrocious and constantly injured. Thats a guy i let play through arbitration or at least another year before trying to sign him. You can feel free to disagree.

[lou]

Well first, the orioles overpaid for rogers and will come to deeply regret that trade. One team overpaying at the deadline does not make rogers good or valuable on the field, which has been my contention for years about rogers, he's just not what he was that one first half in 2021. Not necessarily that he wouldnt have some sort of value in a trade. Two, rogers has a track record of success previously. He's been mediocre for numerous years at this point as i said but he has 6.3 WAR for his career over 391 innings. Cabrera has .7 war across 236 innings. Im all for signing guys early, but cabrera's performance has not merited one of those early signing contracts. He needs to show at least something before that can be justified. At this point, it's Eury and Meyer who deserve those types of contracts if we're handing them out. Cabrera has been atrocious and constantly injured. Thats a guy i let play through arbitration or at least another year before trying to sign him. You can feel free to disagree.

I think the Orioles underpaid and they should have gotten another FV40 (not much but still) - so that is debatable. BA/Pipeline is over valuing Norby who cant play defense, but he is still a good prospect.

So Rogers has a track record of success now after years of saying 2021 was a long time ago? Come on man. You have bludgeoned him for years. Own it.

Buy low, sell high. We are at a buy low for Cabrera. RP floor and not a huge deal. Low $20 millions with 17+ club controlled guys on the team. Cabrera is better than Rogers. And yes Eury, Max, and potentially Weathers, are next if they show some stuff next year.

[rmc523]

It’s like, maybe build a good lineup and create a better culture and the players might be happier and have fun? And thus perform better?

Jazz was always going to do this but he landed in a top 3 place for him. Hes going to be everything we ever wanted him to be now. He has the infrastructure around him now. He probably told his agent sign me forever right now and they will do it.

Yeah, despite the hype, he doesn’t seem like “the” guy, but rather a great complimentary piece that will succeed with other good players around him, which he didn’t have here.

[fish16]

I think the Orioles underpaid and they should have gotten another FV40 (not much but still) - so that is debatable. BA/Pipeline is over valuing Norby who cant play defense, but he is still a good prospect.

So Rogers has a track record of success now after years of saying 2021 was a long time ago? Come on man. You have bludgeoned him for years. Own it.

Buy low, sell high. We are at a buy low for Cabrera. RP floor and not a huge deal. Low $20 millions with 17+ club controlled guys on the team. Cabrera is better than Rogers. And yes Eury, Max, and potentially Weathers, are next if they show some stuff next year.

rogers having a track record of success and 2021 being a long time ago are not mutually exclusive. he's been living off of his first half in 2021 for multiple years. since that point he has either been straight up bad (2022), injured the entire year (2023), or thoroughly mediocre (this year). The fact that they were able to get not only 1 potential long term lineup piece but 2 is an absolute steal. we can revisit that in a year. His XFIP has gone up every year since 2021 and his velocity has gone down every year since then as well. He's throwing 2.4 MPH slower than he was then. He has pitched 6 innings 10 times in 3 full seasons dating back to the end of june of 2021. He's that cant miss combo of not effective and not able to eat innings. He's not good. the fact that the orioles gave up that much for a thoroughly mediocre SP just because he has "control" was dumb. they can afford it though because they dont have room for everyone.

[Nick]

Traded all our players and we get exactly 1 prospect (not even technically a prospect) called up. So excited to see the likes of Nick Gordon, Forrest Wall, David Hensley and Emmanuel Rivera for the rest of the year.

[lou]

rogers having a track record of success and 2021 being a long time ago are not mutually exclusive. he's been living off of his first half in 2021 for multiple years. since that point he has either been straight up bad (2022), injured the entire year (2023), or thoroughly mediocre (this year). The fact that they were able to get not only 1 potential long term lineup piece but 2 is an absolute steal. we can revisit that in a year. His XFIP has gone up every year since 2021 and his velocity has gone down every year since then as well. He's throwing 2.4 MPH slower than he was then. He has pitched 6 innings 10 times in 3 full seasons dating back to the end of june of 2021. He's that cant miss combo of not effective and not able to eat innings. He's not good. the fact that the orioles gave up that much for a thoroughly mediocre SP just because he has "control" was dumb. they can afford it though because they dont have room for everyone.

Right, so a boring pitcher got good prospects, so lets increase years of the pitchers the Marlins have to keep them or trade them for more value.

Lets make teams like the Orioles stupid every year by feeding them what they want?