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Yeah to do nothing this past offseason was inexcusable. If he had traded off a bunch of guys after a playoff run it would've been infuriating. But doing nothing was equally infuriating, and we got nothing out of it, at least this process, which was inevitable, would've been sped up a little bit and we could've capitalized on a couple of guys' value.
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The only guy that would have infuriated people was arraez. The pitchers would have been completely explainable if they got bats back. Especially with sandy being out for this year and it being a clearly lost year from the get go. Luzardo was the guy they fucked up on. He was great last year, fully healthy, and several years of team control. Especially if the plan was to completely rebuild, which it clearly was.Originally posted by Nick View PostComment
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Yes. Maybe not Bryant good, but still really good.Originally posted by fish16 View Post
A quick surplus value calculation accounting for the injury roughly and how RP are ludicrously valued in this exact moment, is this to me:
(1) Luzardo, (2) Scott, (3) Bender/Brazoban/Cronin/Faucher. Their pick for the reliever.
x
(1) Mayo, (2) Bradfield, (3) M. Wagner
That's it. A 3-3. That's penciling in starting 3B, starting CF, and bench 3B/2B/1B utility player who looks to have a severe lefty split (he becomes Martorella's yang to his yin and other guys shifting around).
Footnote here - Baltimore is REALLY lefty so trading for Mayo and another right handed bat is hard (Wagner). DLC may make sense to send back to them too, and he has options and is a good reserve at minimum to just get a lefty out of the lineup. A lot of options. Norby is right handed so I can't see Mayo and Norby in the same deal. It's 1 of them at most, and I think we want Mayo if we're moving Luzardo. Not. Kjerstad (who is a lefty fringe OF/DH). Marlins need fielders IMO. Mayo is the guy, or just keep Luzardo.
That would radically change the trajectory of things if Bendix is dropping this 40 man bat situation August 1, 2025.
C - Ramirez, Mack, Banfield
1B - Martorella, Berry, DDLS
2B - Serna, Edwards, Otto
SS - ______, Sanoja
3B - Mayo, Wagner
LF - Sanchez, Marsee
CF - Bradfield, Mesa Jr., Sasaki/Pintar
RF - _____, Dane
It's 2-3 major guys away absolutely, but as Todd reminds, they can trade Sandy. And as I remind, payroll is going to be sub $70m with Sandy, and if they move Sandy, it's low $50s and jesus christ they have to spend money eventually.Comment
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I think it depends on the bats. If we had gotten a couple of Baltimore's big AAA bats, or major league bats fine, but I think if we had gotten bats that almost certainly not be ready in 2024, yeah I think people would've been pissed. The FO clearly doesn't care what Marlins fans think though, so why should that stop them?Originally posted by fish16 View PostComment
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Baltimore can roll this out long term if they were to move Mayo, and let's just say Wagner isn't in that deal above which doesn't matter for the Marlins
S Adley (Basallo backup)
L Basallo
L Holliday, R Wagner
L Gunnar, R Urias/Mateo ----> R ________
R Westburg
R Norby, L Kjerstad(DH)
L Cowser, R Fabian
L Beavers/Stowers, R ______ (and Fabian)
They need 2 guys longterm. This depth chart is fucking awesome.
They trade Beavers/Stowers and whatever else for a similar right handed OF as there are so many lefties.That guy is the platoon right fielder with the one they keep.
They need a backup infielder who is right handed after Urias/Mateo shed off the team. They are both controlled a few years so nothing urgent. This is likely a cheap defensive specialist as no one is cracking this lineup except to play defense.
Mayo is expendable IMO. This set up gives them 7 right handers around their frankly 5 amazing lefties and their RF platoon is fine all things considered. If only Luzardo wasn't hurt.
They could also do..... Luzardo, Scott, Rogers, and DLC
That would tick up a trade package with Rogers, but they get Rogers now to bridge to Luzardo and Rogers is pretty good and could also be an incredible playoff reliever probably. DLC is a right handed place holder here of course and would just play against lefties (or option to AAA for next year). There is some hope there in a limited role for Baltimore IMO.
Mayo, Bradfield, Beavers/Stowers, I'm going to say a guy a lot of you have mentioned Honeycutt here as the additional prize years away (or other FV40+ type, doesnt matter who as this is for the first 3 guys), and then 1-2 whatever FV40 types Bendix likes gets that done.
Talk about a trajectory change when this lands with five kind of premium guys in A-Ball (Morlando, Johnson, Honeycutt, Head, Cova) and a top 3 pick in 2025 incoming for Holliday or a bashing college RF.
C - Ramirez, Mack, Banfield
1B - Martorella, Berry, DDLS
2B - Serna, Edwards, Otto
SS - ______, Sanoja
3B - Mayo, ______
LF - Sanchez, Marsee
CF - Bradfield, Mesa Jr., Sasaki/Pintar
RF - Beavers/Stowers, Dane
Would be amazing and they'd have Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, and Weathers for the 2025 rotation opening day. With Eury on the IL. And Noble, White, Santana, and Fulton as 2028 hope.
Dare to dream. But this is the kind of vision I would *love* to see as this gives Baltimore 4.5 years of lefty starting pitching for cheap, Luzardo should be playoff ready to boot, and an elite playoff reliever for a run now. With DLC who I mean, is probably fine as their "8 or 9 hole" hitter if he DHs or plays RF versus lefties only. I think this is extracting a lot of value out of those bats they hypothetically move here. But who knows. Maybe Crochet and right handed Luis Robert is their target, but it costs them a lot a lot more to do that plus give Crochet a mega contract.
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Rosenthal - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...relievers.html
Scott, Bender, Brazoban, and Cronin all could go, and Rogers and DLC are available too.
It's going to be busy. I hope they don't go reliever overboard as these guys are pretty good and controlled long periods, but if teams are drunk out there, go for it.Comment
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From Jon Herman: “Hear Trevor Rogers market is heating up. Continues to be a real sellers maker, as anticipated”
I’m still a little skeptical they deal Rogers, but if they can take advantage of the market and get a good return that would be great.Comment
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He's really solid and a sneaky extension candidate with a good reliever floor as I have been arguing. How can he turn down 4/$20-24m with how his career has gone. His depressed arbitration is an opportunity because he won't get hypothetical big bucks until post 2026, and if he does that deal, he's a free agent at 31 so he could get the big one if he works out longer term. Basically, the Marlins have to sell him as a 2.3 year asset, but he could be a 4.3 year asset quickly.Originally posted by sports24/7 View Post
I would want a FV45+, FV45, and FV40 for him, or, a FV45, FV45, FV40+. Or you just keep him.
I see on MLBTR the Mets want him. No discounts for them in particular. Something like this:
SS Mauricio (FV45+). MLB ready when not hurt
3B J. Baez (FV45). A+
FV40 Bendix likes
or
CF L. Acuna (FV45) AAA and 2025 guy
3B J. Baez (FV45) A+
3B Baro (FV40+) A and gonna be awhile but that's fine
If that is too heavy, fuck'em.
Or, throw them Bender or Faucher on top, and get another lower FV40 Bendix likes. Give us R. Hernandez back (who FG has as a FV35+ but MLB has as their 19th prospect).
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given how much value starters seem to have and how well both Meyers and White have looked on top of Eury, Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, etc, if you can get a nice haul for Rogers it makes all the sense in the world. Rogers has been fairly pedestrian since his first half in 2021. His FIP has gone up every year since 2021. He's not bad, but he's nothing special, especially given our other options. I would deal him if you can get a couple more bats. They need a SS desperately.Comment
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the mariners still want one more high leverage reliever apparently. Them and the orioles are perfect fits for Scott. Orioles also need a SP so rogers makes sense for them as well.Comment
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mets are reportedly in on rogers according to a mets writer. they are a good team to trade with for bats. Mauricio might be too much but he would be a perfect fit. He's like Jazz type skillset at SS. Out for the year currently i believe he tore his ACL in spring or something like that. You could pencil him in immediately at SS opening day next year.Comment
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No discounts for the Mets.Originally posted by fish16 View Post
You figure out how to get crazy and get Gilbert/Jett, or more practically Mauricio/Acuna as a centerpiece. Throw in other RP and FV40s with Rogers to get it done.
A polite no thanks if you don't a SS/3B/CF who is ML ready post Super 2 2025. That's the price for Rogers or you keep him.
It's like Sanchez - no reason to move him.Comment
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Imagine if there was some real vision here and they did this:
NYM
Rogers and RP we don't care about ---> Mauricio, Baez, whatever FV40 range guys. Surplus value works.
SEA
MAX MEYER and Scott ---> Farmelo (FG61 overall, RF probably maybe CF, Peete (FV45+ SS), and whatever FV40 range guys and a few of them. Seattle major incoming pitching quickly now and later.
Entire organizational bats are rehabilitated with this as a sooner rather than later 40 man bat situation:
C - Ramirez, Mack, Banfield (50, 40+, 40)
1B - Martorella, DDLS, Berry (45, 40+, 40)
2B - Serna, Edwards, Otto (45+, 45, 40)
SS - Mauricio, Sanoja (45+, 40+)
3B - ______, ______ (Needs work)
LF - DLC, Marsee (Needs work, 40)
CF - ______, Mesa Jr., Sasaki/Pintar (Needs work, 40, 40)
RF - Sanchez, Dane (Genuine RHP basher, 40)
Top hitting prospects after this.
C - ____
1B - _____
2B - C. Johnson (FV45)
SS - Peete (FV45+)
3B - Baez (FV40+)
LF - Morlando (FV40+)
CF - Head (FV45+), Cova (FV40+)
RF - Farmelo (FV50)
+2025 # 1-3 overall pick (FV55 probably) and take a catcher in 2nd round (FV40+) optimistically.
They will have to spend some money for 2025 on the blank lines as Bendix has to be done trading at this point, but there is a lot of hope here. Mauricio probably can play 3B if they for say, did want to show the fans something and sign Adames.
The kicker is, you still have Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, and Weathers for 2025 + Eury. With Noble and White (maybe Fulton) in the pipes. They might have to draft some pitchers again soon!
As stated, lots and lots and lots of good parts and Bendix has both grandiose and smaller options to make this work. Go crazy if it fixes the bats short and longterm and there are still 5 SP + Eury for 2025. Something like this would be unlikely, but would be wild to swap Max for a similar prospect bat and use it to get a real top end FV45+ bat for Scott. And then fuck head just needs to spend some money as Peter will have done his job.Comment
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closing in on a rogers trade per mish!Comment
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Where are you seeing this? It’s showing me his last post was 2023Originally posted by fish16 View PostComment
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