2024 Game Thread

[lou]

In Jeff Passan's latest trade buzz column, he mentions that Trevor Rogers is a backup option for teams looking for SP. Similar to Sanchez, I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. I brought up the idea of trading him after his rookie season because I feared his stuff didn't match the production. That obviously didn't happen and now his value has plummeted. We heard rumors the last two years that despite his drop off in production, he was sought after. If that's still the case, absolutely sell him. But if it's me, I'm not just giving him away, especially when he's starting to be productive again.

Passan also echoed what Mist said last week that Jazz's market is limited by injury questions, and "brashness". I'm certainly not selling Jazz if the package isn't any good.

Julio going down and a France DFA opens up a lot of questions in Seattle. Sanchez and Jazz having good games against Orioles tonight. It's right now with them. Those two and Puk are exactly what they need.

As for Rogers, I have been saying he is a deceptive buy out candidate for 4 years, low $20m range as he's flashing a little as a cheap 4th/5th SP or likely good bulk starter going 2x time through a lineup only. That's solid RP money for double or triple the innings and he'll be a good/great reliever if he did have to move. He has some real value despite our collective doom and gloom. I think it's hard not to get a FV45, FV40+, and FV40 for him which isn't a huge return, but that's something like Martorella/Edwards, Mack/Mesa Jr., and Maldonado/Millbrandt in 3 player package using Marlins players, and that ain't bad for Rogers at all.

I think the key for Bendix is making multi-player deals. Attaching guys to Jazz and Scott as frankly the "big" ones is going to net some returns as the secondary batch of guys like Puk, Sanchez, Rogers, Bender, etc. are really good gets for contenders IMO. There is some real value here. But we'll see what they do.

[fish16]

I’m predicting that they won’t get a single top 100 guy out of any of these deals, including jazz and Scott, unless those two are paired together. I think jazz’s value is greatly overestimated because of how he has been marketed vs his actual ability and production. If they get a top 100 guy, it will be a super lower minors recent IFA signing

[Nick]

I’m predicting that they won’t get a single top 100 guy out of any of these deals, including jazz and Scott, unless those two are paired together. I think jazz’s value is greatly overestimated because of how he has been marketed vs his actual ability and production. If they get a top 100 guy, it will be a super lower minors recent IFA signing

Cool.

[lou]

I’m predicting that they won’t get a single top 100 guy out of any of these deals, including jazz and Scott, unless those two are paired together. I think jazz’s value is greatly overestimated because of how he has been marketed vs his actual ability and production. If they get a top 100 guy, it will be a super lower minors recent IFA signing

I mean, Scott shouldn't get one as a rental. He should probably only get a good FV40+ (Mack, etc.) and a FV40 (Marsee/Maldonado, etc.), but maybe trade deadline frenzy pushes him up to a FV45 (Martorella/Edwards, etc.) as a "centerpiece" along with the outside top 15-20 flyer prospect. That's fine anyway it shakes out.

There is no analysis for me for Jazz to not get a FV50 guy as a headliner, and that includes assuming he is injured 33% of the time. However, I don't think you are wrong it may be back end FV50/top 100 guy that is in the low minors. It's why I am beating the Mariners drum for Celesten (IFA 2023) and Farmelo (1st Rd. Compensation 2023) who are Fangraphs 91 and 95 prospects as the Jazz centerpiece, with Peete (1st Rd. Compensation 2023) who isn't a top 100 guy anywhere as the 2nd player. These guys are 2027 players in a best case scenario, but probably 2028 as theoretical real contributors. I do think player(s) would be attached to Jazz as Sanchez, Puk, Bender, maybe Bell and all his money, etc. all make a lot of sense, and they can work out the secondary names from there as the Mariners have a pretty decent farm of other names. If you're right and they trade for less on paper, it's a pretty big failure as Jazz is very valuable even if not of elite value like Luzardo pre-injury. It would be a situation like Arraez where they internally 100% view Head as a top 100/FV50 guy even though the scouting services don't. We'll see what they do, but I am not too worried about the returns in a vacuum here.

[sports24/7]

The notion going around that Jazz has character issues is so ridiculous. Because of one podcast interview? If teams calling about him are expressing those thoughts, I almost hope Bendix tells them to fuck off, then. Listen to former teammates not named Miguel Rojas, and they say positive things about him.

Also, the notion that he's not very good is silly. He's not "cover of video games" good, and for some reason that haunts him. But if he stays healthy, he's going to be a 30-30 guy this year, and can play CF and 2B. He's also 26 years old, and has 2 more years of control after this one. That's absolutely worthy of a top 100 prospect in a regular market, let alone the current market with few sellers. Now, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily fetch one, because I think the Marlins are going to prefer a different approach (again, I hope I'm wrong). But there's really no question that he merits one. Especially if you pair him with one of the many RPs that Miami has to trade.

[fish16]

The notion going around that Jazz has character issues is so ridiculous. Because of one podcast interview? If teams calling about him are expressing those thoughts, I almost hope Bendix tells them to fuck off, then. Listen to former teammates not named Miguel Rojas, and they say positive things about him.

Also, the notion that he's not very good is silly. He's not "cover of video games" good, and for some reason that haunts him. But if he stays healthy, he's going to be a 30-30 guy this year, and can play CF and 2B. He's also 26 years old, and has 2 more years of control after this one. That's absolutely worthy of a top 100 prospect in a regular market, let alone the current market with few sellers. Now, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily fetch one, because I think the Marlins are going to prefer a different approach (again, I hope I'm wrong). But there's really no question that he merits one. Especially if you pair him with one of the many RPs that Miami has to trade.

I think rojas is a douchebag as well but the jazz experience here hasnt exactly been the smoothest on and off the field even outside of that. He is above average, and that's fine. he's on pace for 21 hr's in 157 games, not 30. If he gets a top 100 guy, it will be in the 80s or 90s. he is a career .751 OPS. He is at .736 this year. He has a career WRC+ of 104. He is not a good defender in the outfield. He was passable at 2b, but he cant play SS. And he doesnt stay healthy because he plays like a dumbass. His last 4 years, his OPS were .728, .860 in 60 games, .761 in 97 games, and .736 in 98 games this year. He has missed 205 games from 2021-2023 and by my count was on the IL 6 different times in those 3 years. And he is bad against lefties.

He is not this uber valuable asset for a variety of reasons. Maybe paired with scott they can get a nice package, but him alone is not this crazy valuable asset. and the rumblings you are hearing from the different insiders is reflecting that.

[lou]

I think rojas is a douchebag as well but the jazz experience here hasnt exactly been the smoothest on and off the field even outside of that. He is above average, and that's fine. he's on pace for 21 hr's in 157 games, not 30. If he gets a top 100 guy, it will be in the 80s or 90s. he is a career .751 OPS. He is at .736 this year. He has a career WRC+ of 104. He is not a good defender in the outfield. He was passable at 2b, but he cant play SS. And he doesnt stay healthy because he plays like a dumbass. His last 4 years, his OPS were .728, .860 in 60 games, .761 in 97 games, and .736 in 98 games this year. He has missed 205 games from 2021-2023 and by my count was on the IL 6 different times in those 3 years. And he is bad against lefties.

He is not this uber valuable asset for a variety of reasons. Maybe paired with scott they can get a nice package, but him alone is not this crazy valuable asset. and the rumblings you are hearing from the different insiders is reflecting that.

Or maybe it’s teams floating to the beat writers Jazz is a clubhouse cancer and gets hurt to try and create some artificial leverage against the Marlins and have them blink.

Not much of a difference between prospect 55 and 85 ultimately. It’s a FV50, 45+, and 40 floor and Bendix sucks if he doesn’t get it if they do decide to move him.

[sports24/7]

I think rojas is a douchebag as well but the jazz experience here hasnt exactly been the smoothest on and off the field even outside of that. He is above average, and that's fine. he's on pace for 21 hr's in 157 games, not 30. If he gets a top 100 guy, it will be in the 80s or 90s. he is a career .751 OPS. He is at .736 this year. He has a career WRC+ of 104. He is not a good defender in the outfield. He was passable at 2b, but he cant play SS. And he doesnt stay healthy because he plays like a dumbass. His last 4 years, his OPS were .728, .860 in 60 games, .761 in 97 games, and .736 in 98 games this year. He has missed 205 games from 2021-2023 and by my count was on the IL 6 different times in those 3 years. And he is bad against lefties.

He is not this uber valuable asset for a variety of reasons. Maybe paired with scott they can get a nice package, but him alone is not this crazy valuable asset. and the rumblings you are hearing from the different insiders is reflecting that.

I think suggesting his injuries are because he's a dumbass are a bit unfair, as is suggesting he's been any kind of an issue off of the field.

But again, no one is saying he's some kind of uber valuable asset. He's a good player, nothing more. But that's all you have to be for a team to give up a top 100 prospect, if you combine control with it.

As for the rumblings you're hearing, A) let's see what happens. There is quite a bit of posturing this time of the year. And B) it doesn't take much for baseball people to make stupid assumptions, and that's not a secret. It could be as simple as a black player who wears gold chains, is brash, and made one comment on a podcast that "isn't the way to do things" according to unwritten baseball rules, and all of a sudden he gets a label as a character issue.

[Namaste]

he is a career .751 OPS..

A .750 OPS is the new .800 OPS

[Todd]

Chirinos was DFAd.

[fish16]

A .750 OPS is the new .800 OPS

It’s a nice talking point, but no it isn’t. If you go look at the average ops by year it is fairly steady since the end of the steroid era in the mid 2000s. It has been between .700 and .758 in that time period, and rhat .758 was the year they juiced the balls. In 2014 the average ops was .700 throughout the league, thus far this year it is .708. In 2022 it was .706. What has changed is the number of strikeouts that can make the game unwatchable, but with that comes more home runs and generally the same if not slightly higher ops. Saying the same talking point over and over doesn’t make it true. Great hitters still have .800 and .900 and above ops

[fish16]

Edwards is now starting to do up at the big league level exactly what he did for the last year and a half at aaa while we watched Tim Anderson and Joey wendle be truly awful.

[sports24/7]

Josh Bell is going to go cheap to a contender, and help that team big down the stretch just like last year. Maybe, just maybe if he stays hot before the d deadline, Miami came get something ok for him, but they’ll have to eat salary. On the flip side, with his improved play they’ll probably be able to trade him without eating a ton, but they won’t get shit back for that. Hopefully they choose the former.

[Namaste]

Saying the same talking point over and over doesn’t make it true. Great hitters still have .800 and .900 and above ops

What adjective would you use to describe a hitter with a .730 OPS?

And who's saying ".750 OPS is the new .800" over and over? Did I miss a bunch of posts somewhere?

[fish16]

What adjective would you use to describe a hitter with a .730 OPS?

And who's saying ".750 OPS is the new .800" over and over? Did I miss a bunch of posts somewhere?

Let me guess you’re trying to make some sort of stupid point about Arraez even though he is around an .800 career ops and he’s been playing through a shoulder injury for going on 2 months? He had a .340 average and .785 ops at the time of his injury despite a slow start

and Lou has said that several times about ops