2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Jim Callis from MLB Pipine made a list of the top 6 draft hauls, and has Miami 6th.

2028 is going to be fire?

[Todd]

Marlins are apparently going to sign all but one of their draft picks, 15th round C Coen Niclai.

[sports24/7]

It’s easy to pile on what’s going on in the organization and say the plan was to go young or spend as little as possible. While that’s possible, I think it’s far more likely that when Moore, King, Thibbs, and Smith went off the board, they pivoted from a college bat where they’d have to take a guy from the next tier, and went underslot with a higher upside player that also allows them to spend on another high upside HS player with their next pick like they did last year. That is exactly what multiple pundits said could happen if the board fell this way.

To update this, Miami saved $1.3M under slot on Morlando, and went $1.2M over slot to sign Carter Johnson. It’s likely this was negotiated with Johnson after they made the Morlando pick, which helped Johnson fall to them.

[fish16]

the one positive to come out of this year is that xavier edwards can play. maybe not a SS long term, but that is a plug and play lead off man for years.

[lou]

Mariners put Ty France on waivers. Looks like they are going to hand the job over to Locklear (one of their better hitting prospects) and are done with France. If I were Bendix, I'd tell Bruce let's absorb some money this deadline (France + Polanco, who you then eat and trade somewhere else for FV40s), and I promise to drive payroll into the ground in 2025 to make up for it. I'd shoot big and try to get four of Celesten, Montes, Farmelo, Peete, Hopkins, E. Hancock, and L. Evans (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-...rospects-2024/), take on France and Polanco in a dump.... for Jazz, Puk, Sanchez, Bender/Faucher/Chargois/Brazoban, and if they want him, Bell and all his money. It's a lot of fucking players and a bit unrealistic, but crazy deals have happened and none of these guys are helping Seattle for 2-3 years. Their payroll actually decreases $10m overall (from opening day) so they'd have the ability to go do something else for likely rental players as they just traded for 8+ years of control + whoever the right hander is (who is an upgrade for them).


It would more realistically not be a dump because Bruce is cheap, but Jazz/Puk for Farmelo, Peete, Evans, and a FV40 (A. Smith?) would make a lot of sense to me, and then they can move Scott + Bender to the Dodgers (tons of guys top 8-20 or so in their farm https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-ange...rospects-2024/) or Yankees (Lalane + A. Ramirez https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-york...rospects-2024/) for some more stuff and that's the deadline. Would all make sense ignoring the next year of contention sigh.

[lou]

the one positive to come out of this year is that xavier edwards can play. maybe not a SS long term, but that is a plug and play lead off man for years.

His .423 BABIP is comical but his expected slash in a very SSS is .261/.348/.341. Give me neutral defense at 2B and a plus base runner, and that's going to play as a low-end starter/good bench player which TBH is very fine. And maybe he develops a platoon split, is an acceptable CF backup, and is more of a .280+ hitter which really starts making that OBP pop even if its all singles.

Otto is also .277/.311/.426 expected slash and showing *excellent* defense (96th percentile), so he's going to play too as a low end starter if this is all real with the defense and expected slugging. Also to note, Otto has an emerging platoon split happening (career .702 OPS RHP and .582 vs LHP). Very SSS and a few XBH can change that around quick, but a .700+ OPS vs a pitching type with this defense is a must start versus that pitching at 2B . The offensive bar in the league is low so it'll play into a competent starter with the glove.

It's not elite pieces, but they are pieces controlled for 5+ years cheap. I think they could turn into call it a 2.5+ WAR platoon at 2B and primary IF reserve over 1,000 PA between the two of them. Which would be really good to have that around at cheap prices for years. This is a low bar with effectively 1.2-1.3+ WAR players but good teams have those guys. There is some real value here if that happens. So hopefully this and the emergence of some new pitching contributors (Weathers, Cronin, Faucher, and soon to be Max), becomes the development story even if there are several dumpster fires elsewhere.

[Todd]

You have a lot more faith in fringe players than I do.

[lou]

You have a lot more faith in fringe players than I do.

Lopez and Edwards have 1.6 WAR for their combined careers in 350 PA. Huge SSS here, but it's not like Otto is going to stop being a fielder, and Edwards will stop the contact/speed rates. They are kind of safe floor guys in this regard even if upside is limited.

The bar is pretty damn low and ignoring Bruce is the problem, I think it's pretty reasonable to suggest those guys might be able to do a combined 2.5 WAR in 1,000 PA as a platoon 2B/backup SS sort of thing (Otto being the SS here). I mean this is like saying the interior paint color of a house needing a new roof and AC unit is nice, but it plays into the overall team strategy of the arms are going to be figured out eventually and they do have some bat pieces even if not spectacular ones. I think that's a good way to sum of the Rays - lot's of unspectacular pieces - and we get to the scene in Major League where the groundskeepers finally say, they aren't that shitty.

[Nick]

Really starting to like Javier Sanoja. What he's doing at 21 in AAA is pretty incredible. Hitting .300, .829 OPS only 17 Ks 322 PAs.

Only problem is, defensive-wise sounds very similar to Lopez and Edwards. Good 2nd Baseman, who won't quite cut it as a SS.

[lou]

Really starting to like Javier Sanoja. What he's doing at 21 in AAA is pretty incredible. Hitting .300, .829 OPS only 17 Ks 322 PAs.

Only problem is, defensive-wise sounds very similar to Lopez and Edwards. Good 2nd Baseman, who won't quite cut it as a SS.

To add, .298 BABIP so it is real. And he can probably play CF (Fangraphs has him there FWIW) a bit more than the other two. It's going to be easy to trade one of these guys if all three make it ultimately as I'd agree carrying all 3 on a roster is tough unless someone really blossoms into a starter. I imagine at least 1 fails longterm though. Sanoja also wasn't protected on the 40 man but likely will be now, so 25-27 are option years. Really not any rush here to worry about redundancy. We could use a nice internal development story. Could be a piece.

To just mention the other interesting ones for me, Mack is hitting .234/.300/.461 (7.4% BB / 25.2% K), but that's with a .268 BABIP. He's owed some bloops and hitting .260 is something if he can maintain that as he moves up each level. The interesting split then is, he's hitting .245/.316/.510 (.826) in AA against right handers (227 PA) and it is a .577 OPS against left handers. Color me intrigued as a projectable plus defender there is a right handed split there as a lefty hitting catcher. He leads the southern league in HR against RHP as another fun accolade and that's good to judge against his peers. There is some stuff to like here. Now let's shift to Banfield who is overall .232/.284/.409 in AAA, but Banfield is hitting .343/.370/.571 against LHP (73 PA). Dare to dream here. Maybe later I'll track them both year to year to see how that split has progressed as these are real SSS, but for some big picture perspective, Bethancourt was a reasonably above average defensive catcher in 2022 and had a 1.8 WAR in 333PA with a .691 OPS. If the Marlins in a perfect world can start Mack against 85% right handers and Banfield 85% left handers in a few years, and they can hit a .675+ OPS overall using a platoon advantage, these two could be a productive platoon. Maybe they don't need a catcher as much as we think as I'm just figuring out these splits right now and this is trending to a platoon with how good defensively they both are supposed to be, or maybe I am late to the party and missed these splits somewhere else.

[Namaste]

Some guy named Chirinos started yesterday and gave up 9 hits, 5 ER's and 5 walks.

Today's Some Guy is Kyle Taylor. Kyle Taylor.

[Nick]

Some guy named Chirinos started yesterday and gave up 9 hits, 5 ER's and 5 walks.

Today's Some Guy is Kyle Taylor. Kyle Taylor.

If Max Meyer isn't called up this week, I'm going down to Miami and giving Bendix a swirlie.

[fish16]

Some guy named Chirinos started yesterday and gave up 9 hits, 5 ER's and 5 walks.

Today's Some Guy is Kyle Taylor. Kyle Taylor.

i believe its kyle tyler. or am i making that up? No one knows because no one has heard of him and this team stinks. Xavier edwards continues to hit though.

[lou]

If Max Meyer isn't called up this week, I'm going down to Miami and giving Bendix a swirlie.

Started at 1.082 service days

+ 19 days ----> 1.101 service days

Can be up to 1.168 service days (Marlins historically use a 3-4 day buffer versus going the full 1.171, 1.172 days etc., but this is a new regime so who knows)

So he can be up 67 days (approximately)

Last game of the season September 29th (not sure if this is last MLB calendar day, may be September 30th with potential for 1 game run offs for playoffs, etc.)

September 29 days and then August 30 days (59 days)

So last 9 days of July is July 23rd.

July 23rd is today.

He started on the 20th, so giving him 1 extra day of rest to psych up for the bigs is July 26th.

That is what I am going with.



The very TLDR, all systems go and he's going to end with 1.168 service days, +/- 2 days. Service year achieved. He'll start Saturday or Sunday IMO @MIL, and then get @ATL, CIN, SD, and @NYM. Welcome to the big leagues forever kid. Hope you're a starter and not a reliever.

[sports24/7]

In Jeff Passan's latest trade buzz column, he mentions that Trevor Rogers is a backup option for teams looking for SP. Similar to Sanchez, I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. I brought up the idea of trading him after his rookie season because I feared his stuff didn't match the production. That obviously didn't happen and now his value has plummeted. We heard rumors the last two years that despite his drop off in production, he was sought after. If that's still the case, absolutely sell him. But if it's me, I'm not just giving him away, especially when he's starting to be productive again.

Passan also echoed what Mist said last week that Jazz's market is limited by injury questions, and "brashness". I'm certainly not selling Jazz if the package isn't any good.