2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

he has literally not done a single thing to make anyone think he is a major league pitcher. If he wasn't sixto sanchez the former top prospect a lifetime ago, you'd be saying the same thing. I'm fine with them continuing to trot him out there because it doesnt fucking matter, but he stinks. and he clearly does not care about his career.

If you don't think all 29 teams if they had the opportunity would pick him up, stash him in AAA in hopes that he figures things out then you're crazy. The 96-97 shows up occasionally, you have to find a way to get it more consistently, that's on him. But 96-97 with his changeup that's something major league teams will see as something to build on, and go forward with. If he doesn't make himself into at least a major league reliever with that base it's on him, barring further injury.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably agree with you, his commitment probably stops him from getting there, but he's going to get opportunities in the future, even if he doesn't figure it out this year.

[lou]

I disagree, there is something there, but he needs to be a completely different pitcher than he was in 2020, and he's trying to figure that out at the big league level. It's going to be a struggle. I agree there seems to be some attitude/preparation/conditioning issues, but say we dropped him right now, this is a guy who will bounce around AAA , for years possibly, in hopes that he figures it out and becomes maybe a decent #5 or middle reliever.

The Marlins are doing the only thing they can considering the situation. They aren't in a playoff race, see if he can figure it out at the major league level before the end of the year, and if not they have to try and sneak him through waivers or let him go.

Yes, this is clearly correct. I think he'd be waiver claimed by CHW or OAK immediately and they'd probably then you know, make him a 2-3 inning RP versus whatever is happening right now. Take a swing on developing a legitimate 2+ IP middle reliever floor with a huge ceiling if the velocity ever really returns. I mean that happens, guys show up throwing 1-2 MPH harder every spring. I want to see a max effort Sixto FB velocity though. This first inning stuff is whack. He might be able to rest upper 95/96 with some 97 peaks. He was hitting that in spring training after all. He's probably going to be pretty OK if he can do that as the changeup is absolutely still there from what we're seeing. He needs the FB to play off of it and be able to use that cutter 15% of the time and not get drilled to keep folks honest. I think he'll be a viable RP throwing 95+ and a good one if he gets back to 97+. Less than that, he better develop an amazing cutter to survive at all.

[lou]

he has literally not done a single thing to make anyone think he is a major league pitcher. If he wasn't sixto sanchez the former top prospect a lifetime ago, you'd be saying the same thing. I'm fine with them continuing to trot him out there because it doesnt fucking matter, but he stinks. and he clearly does not care about his career.

His changeup is still very good (not 2020 elite good of course). He has 1 real viable above average MLB pitch and if he can get one more to play off of it, he's going to be in business as a reliever floor. Namaste said this already, but no one is judging him as a former top prospect.

You may be right psychologically about Sixto and he gives too little of a shit to ever get past himself, but the guy is hitting 95/96 in real 20-40 inning spurts (higher peaks in ST too) with a very good changeup. I don't know why you are so angry with the idea of "hey maybe this dude might better himself and turn into a RP." That's it. Stop with this "taking the L" and other projecting/posturing shtick. The team is bad, but if you look under the hood something weird is going on with Sixto in the 1st/2nd inning and then he is turning it on and looks pretty OK. 1st time through the order he has an 11.1% K rate and 13.3% BB rate on pitches, and 2nd time through it changes to 17.5% K rate and 5% BB rate. I mean this is a major uptick and explains a first time through xFIP over 6 and 2nd time through drops to 3.71. He has a .290 BABIP 2nd time through so it's not luck.

Yes he has a lot of work to do on the field (and probably off), but he's not a cast off at all absent he does something off the field that's terrible and has to go. They need to figure out why it takes him so long to get going and see if they can harness this "2nd time through energy." I think that is all this conversation is about - what is happening where it takes him so long to get going. I thought it was the organization trying to stretch him out further, but I think Nick is right and Skip is alluding to he is not warming up fast enough or doing something else. Solve that, and maybe he is throwing a really solid 12-15+ batter run through the lineup before he runs out of gas.

[lou]

If you don't think all 29 teams if they had the opportunity would pick him up, stash him in AAA in hopes that he figures things out then you're crazy. The 96-97 shows up occasionally, you have to find a way to get it more consistently, that's on him. But 96-97 with his changeup that's something major league teams will see as something to build on, and go forward with. If he doesn't make himself into at least a major league reliever with that base it's on him, barring further injury.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably agree with you, his commitment probably stops him from getting there, but he's going to get opportunities in the future, even if he doesn't figure it out this year.

This is also correct

[Nick]

One of the worst ABs you’ll ever see from Jazz there.

[Namaste]

Marlins 5 walk off wins are tied with Orioles for MLB lead.




Tanner Scott since April 20th

11 1/3 innings
2 runs allowed (0 earned)
13 strikeouts
6 walks
33.7 whiff%
52.5 zone%
62.3% fastball rate
0.00 ERA

[lou]

Marlins 5 walk off wins are tied with Orioles for MLB lead.




Tanner Scott since April 20th

11 1/3 innings
2 runs allowed (0 earned)
13 strikeouts
6 walks
33.7 whiff%
52.5 zone%
62.3% fastball rate
0.00 ERA

Remember the time when Marlins Twitter/people who look at Marlins Twitter were really falling apart that Luzardo and Scott lost trade value for 10 innings of work, and we were like it is April and a SSS and both of them will likely regress to the mean and be fine.

They are fine. But they should move them just in case they get injured as what is the point. And yes they should have done this in Dec.-Mar.

[lou]

Weathers was also a little better than some previous starts. Some more swings and misses and contact was generally weak. Good start for him. He's flashing 2 OK pitches (Changeup, Sweeper), his sinker is a bad 4th pitch, and his FB is getting completely obliterated (but is better than last year?). Kind of crazy with 80th percent velocity it is so bad.

He's going to need to get the changeup or sweeper (likely this one) into an above average out pitch and get the fastball and sinker into at least neutralish 3rd and 4th pitches to cut it longterm above a true 5th SP innings eater/long man. He's actually pretty good at hammering the zone with his fastball (left hand side) and sinker (right hand side). The changeup and sweeper are all over the place.

First time through stats xFIP 3.71, second time 5.16. All of this checks out to me. He's going to be a great 2-3 IP bridge reliever as a floor (perfect mix with Puk and Nardi TBH) and there is some upside here to maybe get to a # 4 SP with some pitch improvements. I feel if he can throw the changeup or sweeper for more strikes, it'll play up the fastball and sinker a moderate amount. I'm not sure I have ever said this before, but you could pair him with someone like Max and let them each go 3+ IP as a combined SP and they would probably be awesome AF together.

San Diego is really dumb on this one. Weathers is a good mid-tier piece and controlled 2025-2028. Brad Hand will be avenged here.

[lou]

Also Otto's statcast is outrageous - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

xSlash - .306/.349/.536. SSS for sure, but this is starting to get a little interesting. FG has Otto as a 1.5+ WAR player over 350 PA right now. Edwards is about to get some real competition here.

[lou]

Joe Mack is hitting a combined (A+/AA) .275/.362/.451 (.333 BABIP), 11% BB / 21% K in 163 PA. It's a dip from first taste in AA though but he is young and thats a big competition jump. Hopefully the offense improves as the FG scouting projection said he might be a high power .180-.200 hitter which doesn't sound very good. I think the dream here is he develops a RHP split (he's a lefty) and can muscle something like a .220/.280/.400+ line against right handers and is a good heavy side platoon option or real good backup. He projects fine defensively. Looks like a step forward either way so hopefully this is a cold weather prospect coming into his own. He's probably a summer 2026 player at this rate if it works out.

Mesa Jr. scuffling a little as of late from hot start, but is (AAA) .277/.345/.466 (.304 BABIP) 10% BB / 18% K in 165 PA. I think he's the same RHP split dream as Mack, but a higher average/OBP and the defense plays him into a Trent Grisham (when he's good) type starter.

Bride is still hitting everything (AAA) .309/.460/.626 (.319 BABIP), 19% BB / 15% K in 161 PA. I think he should be the starting 3B here on out with an Otto-Brujan-Bride IF and see what happens. Optimistically hopefully Fortes gets his shit together and these 4 are the bench in 2025. Let Rivera play some 1B and backup 3B (Burger 1B/DH split), and Tim can get off days for Otto and Bride once a week and can start at SS versus lefties with Brujan popping out to LF/RF. Everyone will eat here. Let Dane play every day in AAA. He'll get his chance in August.

And then

Berry has 3 hits and 15 K in his last 15 games. Like it's fine if he doesn't make it as draft picks are tough, but how is he THIS bad for a guy supposed to be a pure hitter? The entire industry missed on him. He should be demoted back to A+ and not called up until he has 100 good PA in a row.

[Namaste]

Luzardo 8 innings of shutout ball

Tanner time to preserve shutout

[fish16]

Luis Arraez has 7 straight multi hit games. 7. And 9 in 18 days since being traded. Reached base in 27 straight games. Hitting .330 with a .781 ops despite a slow start. While we have the worst lineup in base all. At least we got 0 top prospects for him

[Namaste]

The Marlins are one game under .500 since they traded Arraez (8-9)

[lou]

Luzardo 8 innings of shutout ball

Tanner time to preserve shutout

Luzardo fastball velocity is down a bit since coming back. He is still looking good underneath the hood as the secondaries are great and when he has control he is stellar, but I’m a little concerned at a FB dip here. Maybe this is a getting back from the injury mini dead arm period and he’s throwing 96 next start or three, but this usually is a bad omen. I’d give him an extra day rest here after the long start. We can’t even purely enjoy the good ones without some concern.

[lou]

Luis Arraez has 7 straight multi hit games. 7. And 9 in 18 days since being traded. Reached base in 27 straight games. Hitting .330 with a .781 ops despite a slow start. While we have the worst lineup in base all. At least we got 0 top prospects for him

A 2-2.5 WAR DH would produce a surplus value around $25m at best for what SD took on in payroll (2025 dollars). He was worth 1 backend FV50 or a genuine collection of 3 FV45+/45/40+ types. They frankly got the later. I agree “one” better name would likely have been better as I am a quality over quantity guy too, but it might not have been available and it was the right time to maximize the return. Most analysts think the trade was fine. Doesn’t mean it will work out but we’ll see.

I think the two larger points here are you are severely diminishing his overall value because he evaporated defensively and that counts, and this stings offensively as WTF is going on with Burger? He must be still hurt.

Go Panthers