2024 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Right on Burger.

Will Arraez accept a 5/$75m contract or not? If you're a no, he must go. (It's a no)

Disagree on -0- pathway. See above. The lowest common denominator is a healthy pitching staff - which includes getting Eury back in the summer which is a realistic timetable for July.

A full tear down is not just Arraez, Luzardo, Jazz, and Scott. That is not decimating the 2025 team by any stretch of the imagination as the entire SP staff is basically intact, however they will absolutely need 3-4 2025 players for moving those later 3 and 2 of them will need to be really good to cut bait with Luzardo and Jazz.

Asked and answered 30 times, but I am not deluding myself Bruce will spend money and you are attacking a point I am not making.

Right on Bruce has no business owning this team and MLB should be calling him to push his ass out behind the scenes.


Relax. Just hope the Luzardo/Scott deals look good or maybe 2026 is in fact being circle with speaks for itself and then my question is, what's the best Florida Panthers board?

Trading Jazz also means trying to fill an 8th lineup spot per your earlier scenarios lol.

[lou]

Teams arent spending major money on non superstar free agents anymore for the most part. 2 guys TOTAL got more than 100 million in free agency last year, Ohtani and Nola. The year before it was 10, but those were super long term deals for the most part like Turner, Bogaerts, Judge, Swanson, Correa, Nimmo, Rodon.

You say will he accept that offer. They. Didnt. Try. They didnt make a single attempt to re-sign him according to all reports. He's closer to the Wilson contreras 5/87.5, Benintendi 5/75, Chapman 3/54, Bellinger 3/80 range. And he's well worth that.

Dude, trading Arraez and Jazz off of a team whose lineup was already pretty fucking bad is absolutely decimating the 2025 team. You can continue this pipe dream if you want, but there is no path to being even average trading the best pieces off an already bad lineup and thinking you're still going to be good next year simply because your rotation looks good on paper.

Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball yesterday, but is a non-superstar here? Also the real point here, the EXTENSION TODAY is $100m easily. It's not what he could get post 2025. He's not undercutting himself in an extension where he's giving up his chance at free agency? Come on man. Those guys sign those FA deals because they didn't agree to extensions. Arraez isn't negotiating himself down in a contract assuming no one is going to sign him post 2025? That makes no sense at all??? And why he would never accept a 5/$75m deal prior to free agency, even if that's what he gets in free agency. And then, you don't sign him those years as you're kicking his age out longer as mentioned.

What pipe dream, as I'm saying they might be good if they spend money but am not guaranteeing they spend money? You keep arguing things against me I am not saying.

They can trade Arraez, Jazz, and Burger, who cumulatively have about .5 WAR right now in 350 PA for the 2024 Marlins mind you, and depending on who they get and what they spend, may be fine with the intact staff. This isn't basketball or football. They can plug in 6 bats and it may be a net positive quickly.

None of us know what is going to happen. Being upset about Arraez being moved is true if you consider they should have done it in the offseason as well as a genuine skeptical return, but the decision to trade him was right. And that is 100% my point. At least they made the right and painful call. We can only hope Bendorx got the players right in return. Hopefully Keith Law is right as the deal seems light to me.

[fish16]

Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball yesterday, but is a non-superstar here? Also the real point here, the EXTENSION TODAY is $100m easily. It's not what he could get post 2025. He's not undercutting himself in an extension where he's giving up his chance at free agency? Come on man. Those guys sign those FA deals because they didn't agree to extensions. Arraez isn't negotiating himself down in a contract assuming no one is going to sign him post 2025? That makes no sense at all??? And why he would never accept a 5/$75m deal prior to free agency, even if that's what he gets in free agency. And then, you don't sign him those years as you're kicking his age out longer as mentioned.

What pipe dream, as I'm saying they might be good if they spend money but am not guaranteeing they spend money? You keep arguing things against me I am not saying.

They can trade Arraez, Jazz, and Burger, who cumulatively have about .5 WAR right now in 350 PA for the 2024 Marlins mind you, and depending on who they get and what they spend, may be fine with the intact staff. This isn't basketball or football. They can plug in 6 bats and it may be a net positive quickly.

None of us know what is going to happen. Being upset about Arraez being moved is true if you consider they should have done it in the offseason as well as a genuine skeptical return, but the decision to trade him was right. And that is 100% my point. At least they made the right and painful call. We can only hope Bendorx got the players right in return. Hopefully Keith Law is right as the deal seems light to me.

he is the best pure hitter in baseball and he is not a superstar. Those 2 things can coexist. the free agent market has been severely diminished in recent years, and arraez's defensive ability limits his value. He is not going to get 100 million. But that doesnt mean he isnt an incredibly impactful player for this team and by far and away their best hitter. And also, they did not even attempt to re-sign him. You cant act like he would be too expensive when you didnt even make an attempt.

If you're attempting to compete next year, trading arraez torpedo's that. Whether you realize it now or later, it doesnt change reality. Their lineup was severely lacking with him, it is completely inept without him. You arent adding 7 quality pieces before next year. They are circling 2026 or 2027. You just havent realized it yet somehow.

[rmc523]

Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball yesterday, but is a non-superstar here? Also the real point here, the EXTENSION TODAY is $100m easily. It's not what he could get post 2025. He's not undercutting himself in an extension where he's giving up his chance at free agency? Come on man. Those guys sign those FA deals because they didn't agree to extensions. Arraez isn't negotiating himself down in a contract assuming no one is going to sign him post 2025? That makes no sense at all??? And why he would never accept a 5/$75m deal prior to free agency, even if that's what he gets in free agency. And then, you don't sign him those years as you're kicking his age out longer as mentioned.

What pipe dream, as I'm saying they might be good if they spend money but am not guaranteeing they spend money? You keep arguing things against me I am not saying.

They can trade Arraez, Jazz, and Burger, who cumulatively have about .5 WAR right now in 350 PA for the 2024 Marlins mind you, and depending on who they get and what they spend, may be fine with the intact staff. This isn't basketball or football. They can plug in 6 bats and it may be a net positive quickly.

None of us know what is going to happen. Being upset about Arraez being moved is true if you consider they should have done it in the offseason as well as a genuine skeptical return, but the decision to trade him was right. And that is 100% my point. At least they made the right and painful call. We can only hope Bendorx got the players right in return. Hopefully Keith Law is right as the deal seems light to me.

They can also plug in 6 bats that are worse than our current guys. It’s not a guaranteed layup.

[sports24/7]

The bold is 100% correct.

I also agree, they must really love Head (praying no bad jokes here in perpetuity) and value him as a solid FV50 type and will really blossom as a cold weather guy now playing more. I don't agree with Law that isn't the best trade they made in years, but it makes sense if they expect a major development breakout with Head in 1-2 years.

And I do blame the over-reaction as we knew this when they didn't sign anything from the Nick Senzel, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, M. Taylor, Mike Clevinger, Duvall, Lorenzen, Pham, Urshela, class of FA. This was always going to happen and frankly, it is GREAT it is happening in early May before Arraez hypothetically gets hurt or defense craters more where his value stays at not much because he is basically a no-slugging DH now that can backup 1B. I think Marlins fans greatly over value Arraez. Those saying he's the best pure hitter in baseball don't understand that guys like Steve Kwan are much better players because they can play defense and run the bases, etc.

It's only bleak because of Bruce. a $110m payroll (2023) Marlins team in 2025 will be very good, but they will need every dollar of that and a scale back to $70-80m is circling 2026 and we should expect a Sandy preseason trade if that is the case. We'll see what happens. I'm hoping Cabrera, Garrett, and one of Rogers, Max, and Weathers can be counted on as a solid 3-4-5 rotation next year as they have the other two once healthy. That's the whole story here.

It’s most bleak because of Bruce, but I don’t know that Bendix has done anything to give us reason to hope there, either. His tenure so far has been unimpressive, at best, and very disappointing at worst. If, like you said, they were always going to get to this point of a fire sale, then not starting in the offseason was incredibly stupid. We can talk about the injuries, but if this year didn’t matter, then who really cares, right? But also, if it is only Bruce or just mainly Bruce, it’s still bleak. Bendix would have to be a miracle worker to even get them competitive, let alone contend if he’s not going to spend even a little.

This offseason should be a measuring stick. It should be a loaded FA group. If they don’t spend then, we should have no expectations that he’ll ever spend.

On another note. I’ll be at the game tonight. I genuinely considered wearing Dodgers gear considering what an embarrassing team they’re fielding. Is it crazy, that Munoz starting actually gives me the most hope for a competitive game?

[rmc523]

It’s most bleak because of Bruce, but I don’t know that Bendix has done anything to give us reason to hope there, either. His tenure so far has been unimpressive, at best, and very disappointing at worst. If, like you said, they were always going to get to this point of a fire sale, then not starting in the offseason was incredibly stupid. We can talk about the injuries, but if this year didn’t matter, then who really cares, right? But also, if it is only Bruce or just mainly Bruce, it’s still bleak. Bendix would have to be a miracle worker to even get them competitive, let alone contend if he’s not going to spend even a little.

This offseason should be a measuring stick. It should be a loaded FA group. If they don’t spend then, we should have no expectations that he’ll ever spend.

On another note. I’ll be at the game tonight. I genuinely considered wearing Dodgers gear considering what an embarrassing team they’re fielding. Is it crazy, that Munoz starting actually gives me the most hope for a competitive game?

Could always throw a brown paper bag on your head lol

[lou]

he is the best pure hitter in baseball and he is not a superstar. Those 2 things can coexist. the free agent market has been severely diminished in recent years, and arraez's defensive ability limits his value. He is not going to get 100 million. But that doesnt mean he isnt an incredibly impactful player for this team and by far and away their best hitter. And also, they did not even attempt to re-sign him. You cant act like he would be too expensive when you didnt even make an attempt.

If you're attempting to compete next year, trading arraez torpedo's that. Whether you realize it now or later, it doesnt change reality. Their lineup was severely lacking with him, it is completely inept without him. You arent adding 7 quality pieces before next year. They are circling 2026 or 2027. You just havent realized it yet somehow.

It's really important to understand what Arrarez is going to get post 2025 in FA is not very relevant to what he is going to get in a buyout deal today to give up free agency and secure those years which is the crux. Giving up free agency is a big deal, and he's pretty damn close to it. Arraez is a 1 shot free agency guy, he's not a 2 free agent contract sort of player like some others. More so, let's just say this is relevant, if he has a Benitendi 5/$75m floor after 2025, why is he taking a cent less than 6/$90m in free agency (what he'll make in arbitration next year roughly and then the free agency years kick in), and then the whole deal scales up to $100m (as I have been saying) because that's what Arrarez needs to give up the free agent deal. Because if he hits .375/.435/.475 today forward through his Padres tenure, he's going to smoke Benintendi you know. And he can do that. He is good. It's simply the Reynolds contract over $100m, or a higher average annual value and lower years to sign him today, even if he may not do that well later. It's the cost of business and relinquishing FA.


If they are circling 2026, all of these people need to go ASAP - Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Scott, Bender, GO (only controlled in 2025), Puk, Jazz, Burger, DLC, Sanchez, Gordon, and all the veterans like Bethancourt, Anderson, Bell, and Chargois. All of them. That would be something for sure if that happens. Though, the SDP move may be instructive here as why did they trade for a reliever with 1 year of control after this one if they intend to tank? That doesn't make much sense, but maybe they are stupid.

[lou]

It’s most bleak because of Bruce, but I don’t know that Bendix has done anything to give us reason to hope there, either. His tenure so far has been unimpressive, at best, and very disappointing at worst. If, like you said, they were always going to get to this point of a fire sale, then not starting in the offseason was incredibly stupid. We can talk about the injuries, but if this year didn’t matter, then who really cares, right? But also, if it is only Bruce or just mainly Bruce, it’s still bleak. Bendix would have to be a miracle worker to even get them competitive, let alone contend if he’s not going to spend even a little.

This offseason should be a measuring stick. It should be a loaded FA group. If they don’t spend then, we should have no expectations that he’ll ever spend.

On another note. I’ll be at the game tonight. I genuinely considered wearing Dodgers gear considering what an embarrassing team they’re fielding. Is it crazy, that Munoz starting actually gives me the most hope for a competitive game?

Incredibly stupid. I said this before - they wanted to have their cake and eat it too fielding an acceptably bad team to not make it look like an actual or semi-tear down, so they could save some face in July trades. It was incredibly stupid to not pull the plug in the offseason with UNAPOLOGETIC BASEBALL MOVES so whoever determined this was smart (maybe marketing people/Bruce and Bendorx thought acceptable risk?) deserves a lot of blame. Frankly, the team would be a lot better with Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera/Luzardo not missing a bunch of starts so far which is the only defense you can give them. Doing something like trading Arrarez, Berti, Bell, Luzardo, and Scott, simultaneously extending say Jazz and Eury, and then signing 3-5 guys of the Rosario, JD Davis, M. Taylor, and Lorenzen ilk would have been a better product with a clear franchise vision even if the W/L wouldn't change because we'd all know what is happening. We might not have liked it off the miracle playoffs, but I think we'd all accept it is not wrong coming off 33-14 in 1 run games + the honesty evaluation not even $30m in free agent contracts would fix that. Compare that vision to now which is kind of a cluster fuck until Luzardo and Scott show they are healthy and dealing as that's where the youth infusion will come from ultimately.

I feel this blame falls on Bendorx thinking he can walk the line for sure even if Bruce is the ultimate villain here, but while we can overall point out his tenure has been beyond unimpressive (I am with you, beyond unimpressive is a nice way to put it!), frankly, it takes guts to admit how bad you fucked up 6 weeks into the season and trade a major guy like this. We haven't even talked about they did this after a SWEEP! He gets credit for making that tough as hell decision as it is the smart one, even if hefty criticism for causing the fucking situation made you do it. Maybe it is a glass half full, but that was a hard call for a rookie POBO/GM to make for me so that shows to me he can learn. You know, something Mario Cristobal hasn't shown he can learn failing to kneel the ball to lose games at Oregon, and then doing it again with the Hurricanes years later (best local example I can think of on the fly). Bendorx grew up a little bit here even if its unacceptable he had to grow up at all getting this job.

The only real debate about this should be (beyond has he learned from this experience to always make unapologetic baseball moves at all times from now on) - how good are these SDP guys as I think most commentators (except how is Keith Law on board with this) think it was a undersell. I have no words how money was sent back to SDP here beyond, they love D. Head a lot. I'm bummed, but optimistic for more smarter ones. We'll see.

And yes, if they go full "2026" which means an offseason Sandy trade once he shows a good bullpen session for sure and not spending, I'll have no words. Have to see what comes back with trades and who gets moved, but they can make it work if the SP is healthy.


As for Munoz, I don't share much optimism as a starter. Maybe he can play up as a FB/SL middle reliever. But this year is whatever at this point. Let him rip and see what happens.

[lou]

The Fangraphs analysis - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-...e-luis-arraez/

TLDR - It's fine enough for everyone, and the Marlins organization can do nothing else because of how ownership is so cheap they have to go for quantity to liter the team with cheap guys everywhere.


One note is Head was ranked by them 14th in his draft class (he was drafted 25th) and is a borderline top 100 prospect to them right now. So he may have some more value down the road but is years away. Maybe this is why Keith Law likes it. He's definitely a 2027 player if he makes it.

[lou]

Random Minors Notes:

Banfield 10 hits last 25 PA, 3BB/3KK. Maybe he is waking up from dreadful April and getting that new swing refined - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wi...tion=C&season=

Noble recently whiffed 9 in his first dominant outing in A ball - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...tion=P&season=

White also showing big K numbers in A ball. Kim probably did good with these two FWIW - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/th...ats?position=P

Cappe is not doing much, but his BB rate has doubled so maybe he is trying something new and some hits from an approach change are coming. Huge improvement from last year, but this is still way below acceptable on slugging - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yi...position=2B/SS

Mark Coley (their 17th round pick) is absolutely blitzing A/A+ this year, and if Lee Stone were still around this is his guy to anoint the team's # 1 prospect. 23 and older college prospect hitting A ball, but maybe just maybe this is a late round Logan Morrison diamond in the rough - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ma...ts?position=OF

E. Olson (4th rounder last year) 21+ scoreless to open this season. He is a deceptive/funky delivery lefty ala Fulton/Monteverde/Smeltzer/Bleier (they love these guys as an organization???) and seems like a future bullpen candidate. He's older so dominating the kids, but might be a 2025/2026 optionable guy if he survives the AA competition jump coming - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/em...ats?position=P

J. Miller has had a good first 4 starts in A+. Optimistically his 2nd round pedigree starts flashing and starts getting a little more interesting. This would be nice to see him move up the ranks a bit - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ats?position=P

Fitterer actually looks a little better (BB rate decreasing), but still likely nothing. Maybe he would play up in the bullpen, but he's at least not getting worse and maybe his expensive draft pedigree eventually plays also - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ev...ats?position=P


As Nick annually jokes maybe the preseason Marlins prospect list on fangraphs comes out in July if we are lucky, but I think this would be the farm right now:

FV50 - Noble, Max
FV45+ - White, Mesa Jr. (who is not listed above but statline is still incredible)
FV45 - Head, Martorella, Edwards (not eligible but he'd be here)
FV40+ - Cova, Marsee
FV40 - Wide variety of arm types like J. Miller, Millbrandt, Fulton, Monteverde, relievers like Go, Maldonado, and Olson, and hope/prayer bats like Banfield, Mack, Dane, Cappe, Alderman, Sasaki, Cruz, and Coley II. No sense ranking these guys. They probably have 20-30 of them
FV35+ - Berry just because I want to mention how bad he actually is and if anything is ever going to rival the Kolek disaster, this one may be it



Also just noticed Martorella and Marsee aren't 40 man eligible. Maybe they don't debut this year so they keep other guys on the 40 man. That seems like something they will do.

[Namaste]

The Fangraphs analysis - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-...e-luis-arraez/

TLDR - It's fine enough for everyone, and the Marlins organization can do nothing else because of how ownership is so cheap

Interesting quote from the FG write up: "Arraez is more famous than he is good".

Yeah, we aren't going to know how good (or bad) this trade is until 2027 which is frustrating.

[lou]

Interesting quote from the FG write up: "Arraez is more famous than he is good".

Yeah, we aren't going to know how good (or bad) this trade is until 2027 which is frustrating.

I'd agree with that as a 1B/DH, but he's (much) better than that as a slightly below average defensive 2B if he can somehow figure that out. And he's been that for years so that's a tough comment from FG. Though, he might actually turn into a RHP platoon guy if he is solely a 1B/DH here on out, as he does have a dramatic R/L career split (.691 vs LHP in his career, and beyond the 2023 spike there where he was in the .760s, hasn't been above that career rate since 2019), and if he isn't hacking it defensively at 2B (lower offense barrier to entry position), he starts becoming a bench against LHP at DH quickly. Interestingly, you know who else has a .691 OPS vs LHP for their career. Bryan "Punching Bag" De La Cruz. They should have signed Arraez when they got him as his floor is so high even at 1B/DH with the OBP, but I maintain this is not the event for Marlins fans to freak out about. That happened in February/March when it became clearer they weren't going to do jack shit after making the playoffs which has to be one of the most boneheaded moves in the franchise's history maybe only bested by the 97-98 offseason debacle.

Martorella, Marshee, and Go are probably all going to get significant looks this and next year, so I think we may know a little sooner absent Head just taking off. (Plus, theoretically they opened up $14m or so on the 2025 payroll they can now use for something else, so that is indirectly part of the return. And yes I know they have to spend it, and we'll see what the asshats do.)

[Namaste]

Bryan "Punching Bag" De La Cruz made me laugh loud.

[Todd]

Off topic but on the day of the eclipse, a Shiba Inu came up without a collar. It was skittish and had been on the road for a bit by the looks of it.

Was able to get it rangled and taken to the vet. It was healthy overall and didn't have a tracking chip. About a year old and already neutered.

I adopted the little knucklehead and since he came out of nowhere, I named him Dan Uggla.

[sports24/7]

Incredibly stupid. I said this before - they wanted to have their cake and eat it too fielding an acceptably bad team to not make it look like an actual or semi-tear down, so they could save some face in July trades. It was incredibly stupid to not pull the plug in the offseason with UNAPOLOGETIC BASEBALL MOVES so whoever determined this was smart (maybe marketing people/Bruce and Bendorx thought acceptable risk?) deserves a lot of blame. Frankly, the team would be a lot better with Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera/Luzardo not missing a bunch of starts so far which is the only defense you can give them. Doing something like trading Arrarez, Berti, Bell, Luzardo, and Scott, simultaneously extending say Jazz and Eury, and then signing 3-5 guys of the Rosario, JD Davis, M. Taylor, and Lorenzen ilk would have been a better product with a clear franchise vision even if the W/L wouldn't change because we'd all know what is happening. We might not have liked it off the miracle playoffs, but I think we'd all accept it is not wrong coming off 33-14 in 1 run games + the honesty evaluation not even $30m in free agent contracts would fix that. Compare that vision to now which is kind of a cluster fuck until Luzardo and Scott show they are healthy and dealing as that's where the youth infusion will come from ultimately.

I feel this blame falls on Bendorx thinking he can walk the line for sure even if Bruce is the ultimate villain here, but while we can overall point out his tenure has been beyond unimpressive (I am with you, beyond unimpressive is a nice way to put it!), frankly, it takes guts to admit how bad you fucked up 6 weeks into the season and trade a major guy like this. We haven't even talked about they did this after a SWEEP! He gets credit for making that tough as hell decision as it is the smart one, even if hefty criticism for causing the fucking situation made you do it. Maybe it is a glass half full, but that was a hard call for a rookie POBO/GM to make for me so that shows to me he can learn. You know, something Mario Cristobal hasn't shown he can learn failing to kneel the ball to lose games at Oregon, and then doing it again with the Hurricanes years later (best local example I can think of on the fly). Bendorx grew up a little bit here even if its unacceptable he had to grow up at all getting this job.

The only real debate about this should be (beyond has he learned from this experience to always make unapologetic baseball moves at all times from now on) - how good are these SDP guys as I think most commentators (except how is Keith Law on board with this) think it was a undersell. I have no words how money was sent back to SDP here beyond, they love D. Head a lot. I'm bummed, but optimistic for more smarter ones. We'll see.

And yes, if they go full "2026" which means an offseason Sandy trade once he shows a good bullpen session for sure and not spending, I'll have no words. Have to see what comes back with trades and who gets moved, but they can make it work if the SP is healthy.


As for Munoz, I don't share much optimism as a starter. Maybe he can play up as a FB/SL middle reliever. But this year is whatever at this point. Let him rip and see what happens.

I don’t know that I’m there yet with giving Bendix credit for trading a popular player just yet, partly because I’m still so annoyed about the offseason strategy, that this doesn’t buy enough good will, but mostly because I’m not sold it was a good return. I suppose the counter to that would be that Bendix thinks it was a great deal, so that in itself does show he was willing to make an unpopular move at a time when you don’t see moves like this in order to get a great return. But if it’s not actually a good return, the idea probably doesn’t matter much anyway. All we can do is see, though, I guess. He’s going to get his shot to rebuild this thing how he wants as Bruce isn’t letting him go anytime soon. So hopefully he can get enough back in the fire sale to restock the farm a bit, add what should be a high pick next year (although I think we all know we’ll get fucked in the lottery), along with what will hopefully be a better pick than we’re used to this year, and then spend some money both on home grown talent as well as the right guys in FA. If that happens, all will be forgiven.